Game 63, Astros at Mariners – Draft for Hope, Play for Pride
Cory Gearrin/Wade LeBlanc vs. Corbin Martin, 7:10pm
The M’s skid continues, with another 10-run loss yesterday, highlighted by Marco Gonzales’ 7-run 2nd inning. Marco’s free-fall continues unabated, and after the game, both he and manager Scott Servais talked about how the current trend can’t continue. To his credit, Gonzales assigned blame to himself and the starters, who clearly aren’t getting it done, and refused to say that his defense is hanging them out to dry. I love Marco’s attitude, I love his competitiveness, and I think he can help this team, but something in his approach has to change. He said it was mostly attitude, and having confidence in each pitch, but I worry that there’s something bigger at play.
People have pointed to his declining velocity, but that can’t explain his recent struggles. As I’ve detailed here, his velo was even lower when he started the year 5-0. More problematic is the fact that his May velocity (higher than April) was lower than his *lowest* velocity in 2018 (September). He’s now lost 3 MPH from his velocity in his 2017 call-up, and 2 MPH from May of last year. It’s a worry, even as his April shows he *could* be effective at this velocity.
The M’s trade of Jay Bruce for high-A 3B/1B Jake Scheiner figures to be the first of many “…and cash” trades the M’s make. I expected the M’s to add cash to the deal in order to pick up a prospect, but seeing the M’s send $18 M of the $20 M or so Bruce is owed and getting back a prospect who wasn’t in Philadelphia’s top 30 is…sub-optimal. A limited, platoon-slugging 1B/RF with a low average was never going to be a premium pick-up, but it makes you worried about the M’s adding to their impressive total of players whom the M’s are paying to play elsewhere, or not at all. From Carlos Santana to Denard Span to Anthony Swarzak, the M’s are paying tens of millions for future salary flexibility.
Before the year, I noted that the M’s had to both transform their player development, turning org guys into prospects and prospects into MLB contributors, AND hope that the player development work by Houston and others stumbled. The Astros are 40-20, but shockingly, the second part of that double seems to have come to pass, at least for a few months. No, Justus Sheffield is not ready, and looks further from the majors than when he was acquired, the shocking thing is how many Astros pitching prospects have scuffled. Forrest Whitley’s ERA starts with a 12, and he looks absolutely lost. Josh James has been fine, I suppose, in relief in Houston, but I thought he was a top-of-the-rotation arm, and has looked a lot more average, despite the velo and strikeouts. JB Bukauskas has walked way too many, as has Cionel Perez. Rogelio Armenteros and Brandon Bielak have been…fine, but nothing special. The best of the bunch by performance only is tonight’s starter, Corbin Martin, a former 2nd round pick out of Texas A&M. A righty who sits in the mid-90s, he walked a bunch in AAA, but stranded enough to post decent numbers. In the majors, those walks have combined with dingers to kill his effectiveness. He’s still young, and he comes in as Houston’s #3 prospect for 2019. He has a solid change and a curveball as well, and he could develop into a really good #3 starter (maybe even a #2), but he isn’t there at this point.
That’s not just schadenfreude, that’s helpful: it’s good to know that even the Astros can have an off month or two in PD, but when it’s combined with the M’s near-the-majors talent also scuffling (Swanson and Sheffield mostly, but also Kyle Lewis and Evan White), it’s less fun. It’s also more contained, as the Astros have maybe the best overall hitter in the minors in 2019, 1B/DH Yordan Alvarez, who’s crushing AAA. Jarred Kelenic is a much, much better prospect, and HIS development is something to crow about, but the Astros have solid hitting prospects in AAA who struggle to break into one of the league’s better offenses. This whole surpassing the Astros project is going to be a generational one, I fear.
1: Smith, CF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Encarnacion, 1B
4: Vogelbach, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Narvaez, C
7: Santana, LF
8: Long, 2B
9: Moore, SS
SP: LeBlanc, after Gearrin opens
Deivy Florido, Ricardo Sanchez get the starts on a limited day in the M’s minors. The DSL M’s have started up, and they sit at 2-0 after a win today; SS Noelvi Marte’s the name to watch down there.
The M’s expect to bring up old friend Andrew Moore to take Yusei Kikuchi’s spot in the rotation, as the M’s will give the Japanese lefty some extra rest.
Yesterday’s slate was highlighted by Jarred Kelenic’s second Hi-A HR, and by Evan White’s first HR for Arkansas since May 12th…which was his last extra-base hit of any kind.
The 2019 Draft: A Day One Thread
I was talking with a friend the other day about epics and sagas and the tradition of catalogues of names within, and is there anything approaching that in modern life outside of sports drafts? On scale, I don’t think so. Unlike last year, we’re going to have minor and major league games alongside the draft but I have listened to an watched some recent Mariners games and I know what I would prefer to pay attention to. Pre-game starts at 3 pm where you can get various talking heads on MLB.com and then the real draft gets rolling at 4 pm. There are supposed to be five-minute intervals between picks, but it never actually goes down that way. Maybe we call out our dude around 6 pm?
Last year was fun in that most mocks predicted us to pick a college outfielder and we ended up with a pitcher, and a very good one at that, because I don’t know, Logan Gilbert had mono. This year, the sense seems to be more that names are being listed because they have to be and you can’t disappoint after setting up such expectations. What I mean by that is no one seems to have a clear sense of where the draft is going outside of “let’s hope the Orioles aren’t cheap and actually pick the #1 talent.” The deeper into the first round you get, the weirder the analysts feel it will become as there are depth quirks and an absence of real consensus about talent. I can’t tell you right now which NCAA players may or may not have mono but my instinct is that it’s a good and potentially untapped market to be exploring.
Even as scouting departments differ, I’ve noticed an annual trend among journalism outlets to coalesce around one or two candidates as we hit the day of, perhaps because more information has become available, perhaps because no one wants to be “wrong.” The flavor of the day is Elon RHP George Kirby, who would be an infinitely more fun selection were the team still owned by Nintendo. As it stands, he fits conceptually into the framework. What could be briefly said about Kirby is that he controls the zone, has enough pitches to start, had a good Cape Cod League showing, has a track record, and previously demonstrated more velocity (topping 97 mph) than he’s recently shown (low-to-mid-90s). The major question with him is how to rate his competition, but the Mariners have gone to Elon somewhat regularly in the draft and I figure they should be able to account for that by now.
Analysts like to provide themselves with an out by noting other names in play as extra info. If local kid OF Corbin Carroll drops, most seem to think we’d snap him up readily. He’s probably the only outfielder that regularly gets linked to us as, if not pitching, outlets are often tying us to infielders such as college shortstops in Greg Jones, Logan Davidson, and Will Wilson or prep infielders like the aforementioned Anthony Volpe and Gunnar Henderson, with a new recent and intriguing addition of pop-up player 3B Keoni Cavaco. I’d be into it, but it would take a confident team to pull it off. Cavaco has plus tools all around and yet hasn’t had an especially strong track record despite playing in southern California and getting reps in against better-than-average prep competition.
Anyway, in conclusion, the last time the Mariners had the 20th overall pick in the draft, they selected right-hander Josh Fields from the University of Geo– (is tackled and dragged off stage) NO, THEY NEED TO KNOW! (kicks at air)
Round One: RHP George Kirby, 6’4″, 195 lbs, 2/4/1998, Elon
2017: 1-3, 16 G (5 GS), 4.84 ERA in 61.0 IP, 67 H (3 HR), 41 R (33 ER), 55/17 K/BB
2018: 10-3, 15 G (15 GS), 2.89 ERA in 90.0 IP, 88 H (3 HR), 36 R (29 ER), 96/27 K/BB
2019: 8-2, 14 G (14 GS), 2.75 ERA in 88.0 IP, 73 H (3 HR), 34 R (27 ER), 107/6 K/BB
I bought heavily into the middle of the first-round talk that it was going to be unpredictable and that we would have no clear notion of what was going to happen. Among the things that were regarded as sure, Carroll to the D’Backs and Kirby to the Mariners. Both have come to pass as other stocks have risen and fallen. Given that we rather like the mid-Atlantic college ranks and Elon is in North Carolina, this was probably a safe prediction.
Kirby is doubly regarded as a pretty “safe” pick, although that’s a phrase that I’ve been deeply hesitant to use post-Hultzen. To mitigate that somewhat, they brought in Trevor Bauer to talk about his mechanics a bit and Bauer was effusive, while adding that he thinks there could be more velocity in there with some small mechanical adjustments, at which point he’d sit 93-95. That, combined with the command, could be an intriguing combination. I’d like to see how he would stack up against our other C the Z favorite in Ljay Newsome, less for the stuff and more for the dart-throwing aspect, as Kirby’s heat on a bad day is better than Newsome on a good one.
Whereas Gilbert was a converted infielder who took to pitching later, Kirby’s been a pitcher throughout, first in Westchester County, NY and then in North Carolina. As something of a testament to his pitching smarts and command, his change-up is regarded as being highly advanced and something that he spots well to the bottom half of the zone. Kirby will throw both forms of breaking ball although neither has been especially consistent. The track record within the system suggests to me that player development might eliminate one in favor of developing the other, but that’s also going off a longer personal view and I don’t know with all the changes in coaching and player development recently whether we might approach him differently. “Gas Camp” seems like a given at the very least.
In a surprise to me given how everyone talks up the clean mechanics, I don’t know that I can find anything from PitchingNinja on how his release points look from one pitch type to the next, nor others. What I feel like I can say is that the Mariners have probably been on him for a while as they’ve drafted other Elon players, like Nick Zammarelli in 2016, Ryne Ogren last year, and further back have shown a fondness for scouting there with RHP Steven Hensley and 2B Donny Jobe in 2008. It’s not much, but with a non-powerhouse conference Colonial Athletic Association, which has names you’ll recognize although not necessarily for baseball, I would imagine that having more context would help the team develop a better sense of just what they’re getting in Kirby.
Round Two: LHP Brandon Williamson, 6’6″, 210 lbs, 4/2/1998, North Iowa Area CC / Texas Christian
2017: 4-1, 14 G (5 GS), 4.84 ERA in 49.0 IP, 43 H (5 HR), 34 R (21 ER), 47/25 K/BB
2018: 8-4, 12 G (12 GS), 2.89 ERA in 66.0 IP, 60 H (HR), 31 R (23 ER), 104/34 K/BB
2019: 3-5, 14 G (14 GS), 4.48 ERA in 66.0 IP, 72 H (4 HR), 47 R (33 ER), 73/33 K/BB
Can I be amused for a second that pick one was born on 4/2 and pick two was born on 2/4? Anywho…. Williamson spent the first two years of his collegiate career at a community college after a somewhat undistinguished prep career in Minnesota. He only started to become a guy people were following as he moved further and further south, which leads me to wonder a little about his background, specifically whether he’d latched onto any of the velocity boosting programs of his own accord. What we do know of him is that he’s had a bit of an injury history after having surgery on both labrums (labra?) in the fall. That’s HIP labra, not arm ones. Important distinction.
If you want something to latch onto, I’d suggest that Williamson seems to be getting out of the awkward phase in the pitcher’s lifespan and still has some potential a coaching staff could work with. The mechanics appear to be okay, but the feel for pitches and the velocity both come and go and he can either pitch in the low-90s and blow one by in the mid-90s on occasion or go through a full outing scraping 90. His secondary offerings– curveball, slider, change– also have need of fine-tuning and one would expect that as a pro, they focus on getting him a better change-up and likely nix the curve.
I don’t know if adding numbers will make this more or less abstract, but let’s play around with this and take his last five starts as a sort of “sample”:
5/5, @ WV, 6.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R (2 ER), 5/3 K/BB
5/12, vs. Kansas, 8.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R (ER), 11/3 K/BB
5/18, @ Texas Tech, 4.1 IP, 9 H, 6 R (3 ER), 4/3 K/BB
5/24, vs. Baylor, 7.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 9/1 K/BB
5/31, vs. Cal, 4.0 IP, 3 H, R, 7/2 K/BB
I feel like that helps get some sense of it. I’m looking at sixteen starts for him on the TCU website (is The Baseball Cube missing pre-season? Post-season?) and I see seven starts where he didn’t hit five innings, and nine of five or more. The same source shows eight starts of three or more walks, which means eight of fewer than that. He could be one of the best pitchers one weekend and a relative non-prospect the next. Despite being a “college pitcher” and therefore “safer”, Williamson is a real boom-or-bust prospect and one that you’d really have to trust your pitching staff with to select him this high.
Round Comp B: RHP Isaiah Campbell, 6’4″, 225 lbs, 8/15/1997, Arkansas
2016: 3-1, 13 G (6 GS), 3.69 ERA in 31.2 IP, 31 H (4 HR), 19 R (13 ER), 23/11 K/BB
2017: 0-0, G, 40.50 ERA in 0.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 1/1 K/BB
2018: 5-7, 18 G (17 GS), 4.26 ERA in 69.2 IP, 67 H (4 HR), 41 R (33 ER), 75/29 K/BB
2019: 10-1, 14 G (14 GS), 2.50 ERA in 90.0 IP, 71 H (3 HR), 33 R (25 ER), 97/15 K/BB
Comp picks are interesting to deal with, not that we have a great recent track record of the Mariners actually utilizing them. The gist is that they exist to help ease the loss of another draft pick or player, but unto themselves cannot result in a further compensation pick in the following draft, lest some bunch of aspiring goofballs decide to game it and TAKE ALL THE PLAYERS. Thus, you’re going mostly college unless you have a strong verbal commitment from a high schooler. In this case, the team went with the former.
Campbell has some similarities to Williamson, and some crucial differences. He was interesting enough as a prep player, but said interest was in his build and status as a physical specimen. The body intrigued as did the loose, but he was not always consistent mechanically and tended to telegraph a few of his offerings. He’s grown a bit into… I guess what the player development folks would term as “man strength,” but really it’s been about getting all the moving parts in sync and maintaining that for a full season. If you’re a believer in him, you would regard the 2019 line as what he looks like now that most of his issues have been ironed out. The trick will be maintaining it.
So, what is Campbell now? He throws in the low-to-mid-90s and has already eliminated the weaker curveball from his arsenal in favor of a hard slider. He’s also gotten himself a change that doesn’t have a long track record but looks pretty good. If you’re thinking about the zone existing vertically and that you need to be able to pound down as well as draw swings up (the vertical zone is something Dipoto talks about REGULARLY on The Wheelhouse), Campbell can do that. A development plan for him would be less about getting him to completely alter one part of his approach and more about learning what was successful for him this year and keeping him on it with minor improvements.
The live video got into this a little bit, but one of the more interesting things about Campbell is that he’s an Air Force brat, born in Portugal and doing time in other NATO countries like Germany and Turkey before settling in for high school in Kansas. I don’t know what all that means, but it makes for a fun story as there’s never been a major league player who was born in Portugal and I’m all about the international game.
2019 Draft Preview with Chris Crawford
The M’s have four selections in the first 100 picks, so let’s take a look at their options and how this draft class shakes out with draft expert and friend-of-the-blog, Chris Crawford of Rotoworld.com and NBCSports. This is now the *eighth* annual draft preview we’ve done, and we’re just a couple of years from watching some of the players we discussed back in 2012 hit free agency, which is pretty insane. So who are the future Carlos Correa and Alex Bregmans, and can they land somewhere else for a change? How do the M’s go about addressing the talent gap they’ve got with Houston and some of their other rivals? Once more, into the breach:
1: The M’s have four selections in the top 100. Set the context for us: is this an above-average draft class? Average-to-mediocre? Poor?
I think it’s somewhere between mediocre and poor, to be honest, but if I had to choose? I think I’d go poor. Part of this is because this might be the worst crop of collegiate pitchers I’ve seen; there just isn’t anything here to write home about; most of these guys are backend starter profiles. It’s got some good college bats and some interesting shortstops on both the collegiate and prep level, but it just doesn’t do anything for me.
2: Who should the M’s take at #20? Who WILL they take?
Once again, the Mariners are being extremely tight-lipped, but there are a few names I’ve heard bantered about; the most recent one being Tyler Calihan, a left-handed hitting third baseman who has a chance for a plus hit tool and decent pop. There’s also been some names like Anthony Volpe, a shortstop that projects as more of a second-to-third round talent to me than someone I’d be taking that high, but the Mariners apparently like him a lot. Texas Tech SS Braden Shewmake, Clemson SS Logan Davidson and a few other collegiate bats have also been mentioned. As for who they should take? Best player left. I think that’s going to be someone like Michael Busch out of UNC or Shewmake, but any of those names outside of Volpe would be solid value, to me.
3: The M’s have talked a lot about trying to contend in 2021. Does that change how they view the draft board?
It sure shouldn’t. The names we’re talking about — even the most advanced — are years away from competing. I suppose you could argue that taking a more advanced player is easier to trade — or maybe the opposite if someone falls in love with the upside — but I can’t imagine Dipoto drafts anyone thinking that they can help in two years.
4: Years ago, you mentioned that showcases, Perfect Game, travel ball, etc. mean fewer impact position players will hit college, tilting the balance (eventually) towards the HS ranks. A few years on, how do you view the situation? There are still huge, impact bats coming out of college, but are HS bats more polished now (cough Jarred Kelenic cough), and are teams opting for more of them?
Pretty similar. It’s just so much easier to scout players now than it was 10-15 years ago. They aren’t perfect scouting chances, but you do get a chance to see their swing and build and get to do some compare and contrasting. I hate them, if we’re being honest, but i do get their purpose.
5: I know you’re someone who’s been very down on the whole draft pool concept and slotting, but it’s governed the draft for a while now. Do you think teams have optimized how they work within its restrictions? Should we expect more underslot-and-spread-it-out stuff, or because research indicates that the earlier the draft pick, the better the chance of a superstar, have we – if anything – seen too MUCH of that?
It’s really hard to say. I think we’ve seen teams grow accustomed to it quicker than I expected, and to be honest? That’s a little disheartening. If I were a GM, I wouldn’t do as much spreading because I think this class is very top-heavy; I want the best guys, because behind it there are more questions than in previous years. And I would say we’ve seen too much of that, to be honest. The draft is not a crap shoot, but it’s volatile, it has to be volatile when you’re taking kids this young. I want the guys who look like the best bets and I would trust my scouting department to find diamonds in the rough later.
6: How much do you think teams adjust a draft ranking based on their own internal strengths/weaknesses in player development? Does a team look at a player and say, “we’ve had success with this type/pitchers who throw these pitches/teaching plate discipline” and bump him up (or the inverse)? Or is it always best available talent, no matter what kind of packaging or characteristics come with it?
I think there’s something to be said about taking a similar type of profile if it works for you — or being hesitant of that profile — but I think for the most part, teams believe in their player-development and just go with the guys they think are the best. I’m sure there’s some of that? But it’s probably not as common as some think.
7: The M’s also pick at #59. Who are some names they may want to look at for their 2nd pick?
There should be some quality names there. Matt Wallner is a guy I’d target; outfielder out of Southern Miss with plus power, cannon for an arm and should get on just enough to play everyday. Tommy Henry is a left-hander out of Michigan that I like. He throws three solid pitches and has good feel. A high-floor type. I also think Chase Strumpf from UCLA could be good value here. He wasn’t as good in 2019 as he was in 2018, but I think you could buy low at that spot and get a potential steal.
8: For the first time since, what, the Blake Snell/Josh Sale year, the state of Washington could see two prep players off the board on the first day. There’s Lakeside CF Corbin Carroll (a UCLA commit) and Selah/Yakima SS Carter Young (who’s going to Vanderbilt if he doesn’t sign). Carroll seems like a lock for the first round; what do you think his ceiling is? Where do you see Young landing? Who else is out there from Washington/Oregon/British Columbia?
This is the best Washington prep class I can remember, which is kinda funny in a down year. Carroll is my favorite prep bat outside of Bobby Witt Jr., he screams top-of-the-order hitter with a chance to hit for average and more pop than I think he’s being given credit for. Josh Mears would be next on that list for me, actually, he’s got ridiculous power potential from the right side and is built like a defensive end. Some questions about the hit tool but his power could make him a top 100 pick. Young is really interesting because he’s a divisive prospect that also has some signing concerns because Vanderbilt. I think on talent he’s a top 100 guy as well, but I could see him falling because of that concern. Oregon and BC are pretty down this year, unfortunately.
9: The college ranks in the Northwest are headed up by the presumptive #1 overall pick, C Adley Rutschman. What’s his ceiling, and how would you compare him to Joey Bart, who went #2 overall a year ago?
I think Rutschman is the best catching prospect since Buster Posey. I love him, and he’s what kinda saves this draft class, in a way. I think he’s a much better prospect than Bart — with all due respect to Bart, he’s good — but Rutschman is just as good or better as a defender, has a much better hit tool, and the power is at least comparable. Plus add in the switch-hitter thing. It would shock the heck out of me if he wasn’t an above-average starting catcher, and there’s well above-average potential there. He’s very, very good.
10: There are some huge pitchers projected to go fairly early in this draft. Not just tall pitchers, but like, NFL tight end size guys. Alek Manoah (6’7″, 270) is the poster boy here, but Jackson Rutledge works, too. Is this a byproduct of teams focusing on upside and velocity? Is this baseball keeping some talent that in prior years really WOULD have gone and played tight end/basketball? Or just some big dudes who happened to be really good at throwing things this year?
I think it’s more the latter. But, it’s interesting nonetheless. Manoah would be a guy I’d target if he falls to Seattle, but someone is probably taking him above. He’s really interesting. Jackson Rutledge is probably my favorite of the prep pitchers even though I have some real concerns about the arm action. But yeah, there are some big boys here, and I think their size helps more than hurts.
11: Besides Rutschman, the Pac 12 seems like it’s particularly laden this year, with Andrew Vaughn and Hunter Bishop also expected to go early in Round 1. Is the conference getting better talent/convincing local kids not to go east, or is there just a good group of coaches helping to get more out of roughly the same level of incoming talent they’ve always had?
It is a pretty good group — comparatively — in ’19, for sure. Really good chance we see all three of Rutschman, Vaughn and Bishop go top 10, and I think you can argue that Rutschman and Vaughn are the best players in the class. I think there are some good coaches in the Pac-12, for sure, but I think some of these kids just got slept on a little too hard coming out of high school. Tough to know for sure, but yeah, definitely a good group this year and a pretty good group next year, too.
12: If you were in charge of a draft room, what are some of the things you might want to change? I guess a big part of this is: are teams too similar in how they approach the draft? How can anyone innovate or do something different now, with all of the analytics and information they have before draft day?
Hard one to answer without going into a Russian novel. I think innovation is really hard right now, but I think innovation is really hard right now in the same way we thought the Nintendo 64 graphics would never be improved on. There’s going to be someone who comes up with something — if they haven’t already — that we’re not thinking about to stand out. But right now, I do think there’s a lot — a lot — of groupthink in the draft. Some of that is due to the financial implications put forward by this stupid system, some of it because it’s so much easier to get information. If I were in charge, I suppose the main thing I’d try and implement is more of a focus on trusting the scouts I have to find me those unsung heroes and really focusing on getting the very, very best talents early. I do not like treating the draft like I’m just hoping something sticks.
13: One thing I’ve been wondering in regards to prospects (pro and amateur) is if we’re TOO down on 1Bs. Cody Bellinger is the story of the year, and he went in the 4th round out of HS, and wasn’t on many top 100 prospect lists in 2016, before shooting to the top 20 the next year. Paul Goldschmidt is another example. Is the fact that Vaughn’s a darkhorse 1-1 candidate a sign that that’s changing, or is the industry right to demand otherworldly hitting if a player doesn’t have as much to offer defensively?
There is no question, but also, I think these might be exceptions to the rule. So many draft picks at the position have failed; particularly those who hit/throw right-right. There’s a couple of those prospects this year like Vaughn and Mike Toglia from UCLA among others, but I do understand the risk there; the bat HAS to max out for there to be value, and asking a player to max out is asking a lot. We should probably be a bit more open-minded to the position, but I also understand why scouts are sometimes hesitant to take them with high selections.
Thanks so much to Chris Crawford for breaking down the class of ’19 for us. Check out his weekly series on the top prospects in the minor leagues here, and follow him on twitter @Crawford_MILB.