Game 106, Tigers at Mariners – How Bad Do You Want It?
Erik Swanson/Wade LeBlanc vs. Drew VerHagen, 7:10pm
We’ve seen some rough pitching match-ups this year, but this game almost repels interest. I *like* Wade LeBlanc, and this team would be so much more interesting next year if Erik Swanson was good, so it’s not like there’s nothing going for it, but this is a game between two of the worst teams in the league, with one starter making a return after being DFA’d and outrighted in May, and the other a (currently) replacement-level opener and a veteran innings eater. I try to find some interest in every game, and we’ll give it a go here, but man, it looks like a gorgeous evening.
In mid-April, the Tigers were leading the AL Central, having started at 8-4. The M’s were 12-2, soon to be 13-2. Since that time, the M’s have rather famously gone 30-61, while the Tigers – hooo boy, the Tigers – have gone 22-63. The M’s have descended into unwatchability, but they’re *still* noticeably better than the Tigers. It wasn’t that long ago that the Tigers had a rotation with peak Justin Verlander and near-peak Max Scherzer, and late-peak Miguel Cabrera. They made it to a World Series but couldn’t quite win, and they always knew (like the Royals a year or two after) that they’d pay for their run with some lean years. The lean years are in full effect, and while the M’s are better positioned at the moment with better young players and a better farm system, the Tigers at least won a pennant in recent memory. But I’m not sure Tigers fans understood just how bad this year would go, with what looks like a remarkable inability to develop young players and a pitching staff that’s rivaling the M’s in futility.
Into the breach steps Drew VerHagen, a Vanderbilt product who was an unexciting but fungible reliever/swing-man in recent years. He’s got a sinker that’s got decent horizontal movement from his high release point, and he has a slider and big curve to go with it. He didn’t miss bats in the minors, and he had some control issues limiting his ceiling as well. This year in April/May, the wheels came off. In just 6 innings, he gave up 10 hits and 10 walks, producing, uh, 10 runs (10 earned), a performance that led to his designation for assignment. He lost the strike zone, couldn’t get anyone to chase, and couldn’t miss a bat if he threw the ball in the zone – that’s pretty much the perfect storm of pitching ineptitude, but he turned it around a bit in AAA (after slipping through waivers). Notably, he started throwing strikes again, but teams that struggle with pitching often see this; a pitcher will do OK at something at AAA, but fail completely in the bigs. The M’s know this issue all too well, so we’ll see if VerHagen’s encouraging recent form in Toledo means anything now.
Swanson will try to disguise his fastball a bit better, as it’s been the primary contributor to a HR/9 rate well over 3. He throws a four-seamer 2/3 of the time, but batters are slugging .630 off of it, which is a nasty combination. He’s been very stingy with walks, but he may want to avoid throwing get-me-over strikes for a while. Really challenging major league hitters with an extra-jumpy baseball isn’t a great plan. Luckily for Swanson, I’m not sure the Tigers have more than one or two major league hitters.
1: Smith, CF
2: Crawford, SS
3: Narvaez, C
4: Vogelbach, DH
5: Beckham, LF
6: Seager, 3B
7: Nola, 1B
8: Negron, RF
9: Lopes, 2B
SP: Swanson/LeBlanc
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