Baseball is Back. For Now.
Baseball is back. There will be a 2020 season, albeit a weird, short, tournament in which teams don’t play outside of their west/central/east zones. I don’t think anyone really expected this announcement – coming as it did after months of public and acrimonious debate – would make fans feel better about :gestures grandly: all of this, but it feels especially small and tenuous right now.
First, I think it’s demonstrated that owners are willing to take short-term hits if they think they can roll the player’s union. I think we always suspected that was the case, but the drawn-out dissemination of several proposals that all rejected paying players 100% of their pro-rated salaries (depending on the length of the season) resulted in a much shorter season than was technically possible (I say technically, because I’m not sure the virus would’ve allowed the 114-game season the players proposed).
In an environment in which so many teams have a stake in regional cable channels, that could sting. Owners argued that not having fans in stadiums made the agreement they reached with the union in late March unworkable, but that seems strange in a game now dominated not by gate revenue, but by local and national TV rights. Despite this, several owners seemed to argue to cancel the season entirely, not because of Covid fears, but out of a seeming desire to break the union ahead of the critical CBA negotiations next year.
Second, the past few days have demonstrated that even if the owners and players can come to a grumbling agreement, Covid-19 continues to threaten the game. Charlie Blackmon was the highest-profile player to test positive, after he and two teammates worked out not in Arizona or Florida, but at Coors Field…you know, where they Rockies are supposed to start playing in a few weeks. He’s hardly alone, though. The Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays, and presumably more teams have had minor outbreaks at their Florida facilities, highlighting that a lot can happen between a proposal to send players to spring training facilities when Florida and Arizona had few cases and when a deal is reaches, when Florida and Arizona ICU space is suddenly in short supply.
Players will be thoroughly checked when they report to modified camp in a week-10 days from now. That’ll presumably pick up more asymptomatic cases, and from there, the league will have a really hard time figuring out what to do. In a short season, with a virus that takes this long to become symptomatic (if it ever does), teams face losing a good chunk of their roster for significant fractions of the season. This is not just injurious to competition – it’s a significant risk if those players have or come into contact with immuno-suppressed family or fans. Playing sports at all entails risk, and we can’t drive it to zero, but the national nightmare of Covid-19 response is now reflected in baseball’s preparation for the season. I understand the idea that MLB would provide a distraction or sense of normalcy, but these team camp outbreaks aren’t doing the trick.
Third, as always, it’s the minor leaguers who get hurt the most. Each team will have a “taxi squad” of 30 players that they can call up as needed, and teams will start with 30-man rosters, which are gradually reduced through the first month. The M’s taxi squad will be based in Tacoma, and can presumably train at Cheney Stadium. Jerry Dipoto’s indicated that many of the M’s top prospects, from Logan Gilbert to Julio Rodriguez to Emerson Hancock, may be a part of it. But players won’t be on the 40-man roster unless they’re selected from the taxi squad, and the M’s may be loathe to start the service clock on players in a 60-game season in which the prospects have no real game experience.
And for those NOT on the taxi squad, it’s worse. There may be extended spring training opportunities, but just like regular spring training, players aren’t paid for it. The M’s extended minor league salaries pf $400/week to non-40 man players, but that’s less than they’d make if the season happened. I’m hopeful that the league might expand the Arizona Fall League into a longer, larger event, but again, it’s precisely in the spring training facilities of the sort that the AFL uses that we’ve seen some outbreaks (mostly in Florida, but still). For those who stay healthy, 2020 is looking like a lost year of development.
Teams have to finalize their 40-man rosters and 60 total players who’ll be split between the active and taxi squad rosters by this Sunday. Only the lucky 60 can participate in the weird summer camp that will take place at T-Mobile field before the season starts, and teams can start to make moves/trades/releases on Friday. Players on the outside looking in will be in a tough spot, and those who DO make it will congregate together for several weeks. Good times.
Look, I love baseball, and as awful as a lot of this looks, I’m excited to see the team, or rather, I’m excited to try and follow the development of the taxi squad. I’m glad we’re finally getting real games, but the way this has all happened leaves me more exhausted than relieved or excited. The drip of positive tests from baseball or the rest of the sports world (looking at you, Novak Djokovic) means I’m worried that some team will have to forfeit games or end up playing their taxi squad in “real” MLB games. I am very excited to see Gilber, Kelenic, Rodgriguez, and company, but not playing their first game of the year after half the M’s come down with Covid-19. I don’t envy the M’s having to decide that Gilbert or Hancock is “ready” after watching them do simuluated ABs at Cheney, either.
I appreciate that the league and players are attempting to find solutions in a fast-moving, fluid situation, and that I’m perhaps overly focused on the problems here. But as happy as I’m going to be to have the rhythm and sounds of the game back in my life (at more agreeable times than the KBO/NPB offer), I’m just worried that it could get yanked away again, or that the playoffs will feature whatever teams that had the cleanest clubhouses or best luck with health and safety. I can’t quite imagine getting too emotionally invested in the “postseason” after this sprint of a season, either, not if we’re seeing an uptick in cases, and not if it’s played by random prospects who dodged an outbreak that felled the starters. Go Mariners, and stay healthy. I’ll be here to talk about them, because I can’t quite stay away, but I feel like the weirdest season in MLB history has a few more twists and turns to come. And given that this is the year 2020, I doubt we’ll love any of them.
2020 MLB Draft Day 2 Thread
The second and final day of the abbreviated 2020 MLB draft just kicked off. You can watch at ESPN, MLBNetwork, or follow the various draft trackers on line.
I’ll try and post the M’s selections here, with a comment or two about each. Remember, the M’s pick at #43, the 6th pick today, and then have a pick in the Competitive Balance B round between rounds 2 and 3. The draft wraps up after the 5 round.
#43: OF Zach DeLoach, Texas A&M.
A star in the Cape Cod league and the Northwoods league, he struggled in his first two years in College Station. Hit just .200/.318/.294 for A&M in 2019, which came after a successful stint in the (wood bat) Northwoods League. He followed up that poor Sophomore season by going nuts for Falmouth on the cape, slashing .353/.428/.541, which gave him some momentum in 2020. In 18 games, he was torching the SEC, with a season high in HRs despite making just 77 plate appearances. MLB Network mentioned it, but he’s somewhat divisive, given the volatility in the numbers. Defensively, he’s primarily played in the corners, so he figures to be a bat-first LF/RF.
#64: RHP Connor Phillips, McLennan CC
A former LSU commit, sits low-mid 90s from the right side. Real smooth, quiet delivery. More over the top than first-rounder Hancock, though that’s perhaps a low bar. High-70s/low-80s curve.
#78: 2B Kaden Polcovich, Oklahoma State
A 5’8″ (or 5’10”?) switch-hitting 2B, Polcovich hit .344/.494/.578 in the abbreviated 2020 season, his first in Stillwater after a couple of years in a Florida Juco. He too played in the Cape Cod league in 2019, hitting 5 HRs and hitting right around .300. His patience boosted his OBP in both the Big XII and the Cape; he’s drawn more walks than DeLoach. The University and “grinder” comments make me think of Donovan Walton, though Polcolovich hasn’t played much SS. MLB’s draft preview says he profiles as a utility man, but the M’s may think he has the power to be a regular despite his size.
#107: 3B/1B Tyler Keenan, Ole Miss
Chris Crawford calls this: “
Tyler Keenan is a fun get for Seattle in round 4. Plus power, plus throwing arm. May need to move to first but the pop is legitimate.
— Christopher Crawford (@Crawford_MILB) June 12, 2020
”
At 6’4″ 250, he’s a got a powerful build, and hit over 30 HRs in 2 full years plus the shortened 2020 season. He had some swing and miss, but drew plenty of walks as well. MLB graded his power 6th in this draft class. Defensively, I think most expect him to land at 1B, but we’ll see. Aaron Fitt of D1Baseball (and an ex Baseball America writer) says that he had him as a 2nd-3rd rounder.
#137: RHP Taylor Dollard, Cal Poly SLO
Pitchability righty with a sinker in the 88-91 range. Slurvy slider in high 70s and a curve in the low 70s. He’d been a reliever his first two years in college, so he doesn’t have a ton of innings – just over 110 in total. In that time, he’s been great, limiting hits, and putting up a career 121:27 K:BB ratio in that time. You’ll never believe this, but Dollard was also a standout performer in the Cape Cod league, going 2-1 with a 1.55 ERA in 11 games out of the bullpen for Yarmouth-Dennis. He had 27 Ks to 1 BB in 17 1/3 IP. The raw stuff will make him a guy who has to prove it in the high minors, but you have to like the raw results.
The Strangest Draft Preview Yet: MLB 2020 Amateur Draft
It’s not really a full draft, more of a draftlet, a somewhat immoral amuse bouche, a well-produced spectacle and haphazard “we’re making this up as we go” event. Instead of 40 rounds, this year’s draft will span just 5, with 160 picks in total. Still, this is an influx of new talent to the league, and as we’ve done since 2012, I’ll preview the draft at a high level with old friend Chris Crawford of NBC Sports and Rotoworld (follow him on Twitter for draft info, Sonics nostalgia, and more). The world is on fire, there’s no baseball season, many of these draft prospects had their seasons wiped away. This is uncharted territory, but it feels almost comforting to ask draft questions in June, so let’s get to it:
1: What was the thinking on the depth/quality of this draft class back in the before-times before the pandemic?
On paper, it looked good. I still think it looks good. This is one of the better groups of collegians I can remember; maybe the best since 2011. The prep side is considerably weaker, and unfortunately, those preps didn’t really get a chance to prove much because of the pandemic. That’s not to say it is barren, but it’s definitely one of the weaker groups I can remember — particularly in terms of pitching. Having said that, this is still a strong group because the college side is good enough to make up for the lake of high school upside.
Is this a case of star-power at the top, or just depth from 1 through, uh, pick 160? And this relates to the prep weakness: would we expect very few preps to sign?
A combination of both. Spencer Torkelson and Austin Martin are both legit 1.1 guys and there are several college hurlers not far from that. And yes: I’d expect very few preps to sign.
2: If you were working for a team, how do you even approach this? You’ve had scouts not scouting for a while. I assume this tilts things towards college players, where at least there are a few years of stats? Or not really?
It’s a tough question to answer. I’d definitely lean heavier on college with a track record, but it would probably depend on where I’m picking. It could be a chance for teams picking later to procure those prep talents that would have gone higher if there were more looks. Ultimately I’m still going to take best player available — goodness knows how many times I’ve used that phrase in these previews — but there’s a good chance that my BPA might be a college guy if only because I know more. Sometimes mystery is overrated.
You’ve probably seen the report from RJ Anderson who said some teams may punt the draft, and pick a HS player they have no intention of signing. Is that one response to the uncertainty around this draft, or does that have more to do with teams suddenly crying poverty ahead of CBA negotiations?
It’s probably a combination of both. Owners have a hard enough time paying players who won’t contribute a couple years from now; paying them with this much uncertainty probably ruffles some feathers. Ultimately I don’t think we’ll see any team actually punt, but, it can’t be completely ruled out.
3: There are a few players whose stature has risen due to social media, especially Pitching Ninja. How has his viral fame boosted Luke Little’s draft stock, and how do teams deal with pop-up guys who get internet famous like this?
I haven’t heard much about Little in this last month. As to your larger question, I think there aren’t as many “pop-up” guys on the internet anymore, just because these area guys are able to see most of the prospects. Not saying it doesn’t happen, but these men/woman are really good, and they generally find what is out there with a few exceptions. The pop-ups are really for us common folk, but the area scouts usually know who is out there.
4: We’ve talked a bit about sports tech like Rapsodo, but how is it changing the draft? Is sharing data from wearable tech or other devices helping teams discover talent, or is it just providing more detailed info on the players teams were already following?
Probably closer to the latter, but it’s certainly playing a part. Spin rate is becoming more and more important with pitchers, and of course being able to more easily quantify stuff like bat speed and angle all matter, too. It’s still mostly about if a kid can play or not, but having some data to back up an opinion certainly doesn’t hurt; especially with kids facing off against lesser competition.
5: What will be the impact on college baseball of this draft? We’ve seen some programs eliminated, but there should be a lot of seniors (hopefully) playing next year.
It’s hard to answer that question, but it’s going to be fascinating — for lack of a better term — to see what happens here. There are only so many spots in the draft, and those who aren’t drafted can only sign for $20,000 this summer. There’s also only so many spots for these players to come back as you mention because of scholarship limitations and just the flat-out elimination of programs. Simply put, this is going to be rough, and it’s not just the pandemic that created this situation.
6: Showcase events for high schoolers have been proliferating, another thing we’ve talked about in the past. Those, too, have been shelved this year. What can scouts do to find or evaluate HS talent in the absence of these high-profile tournaments/showcases? What sorts of networks (coaches? training facilities?) can scouts rely on this year?
It’s going to be tough. It’s going to be based a lot on the small amount of information they have, and a lot of networking, as you mention. It just can’t replace the feeling of seeing a player participate in a “real” situation, however, and it’s why several prep players that likely would have been first-round picks end up going the junior college route or signing with four-year schools. It’s hard to get a feel for a 17-18 year old player anyway. With this little of a look? Best of luck.
7: The Mariners pick 6th, and have about $10 million to spend. Who do they target in the first round?
College, college, college. The Mariners are college-heavy early on, anyway. That’s certainly not going to change. The name I hear most often talked about is Nick Gonzales; a middle-infielder who has put up monster numbers at New Mexico State that probably needs to move to second base at the highest level. Max Meyer and Reid Detmers are also strong possibilities; Meyer is a right-hander out of Minnesota who has outstanding stuff but size concerns, while Detmers is your atypical left-hander who shouldn’t need much time to develop. If someone like Emerson Hancock or Asa Lacy slipped, those are possibilities, as well. One way or another, Seattle should get a good one.
How do guys like Lacy and Meyer compare to the top college arms of recent years, like Casey Mize, Alek Manoah, Nick Lodolo, and maybe Logan Gilbert?
I don’t think any arm in this class is as good as Mize. but I would take those arms along with Hancock over the arms you mentioned. At least without the benefit of hindsight. I may be overselling it, but I am a big fan of this group of pitchers.
8: The M’s have preferred pitching in recent drafts. Do you expect that to continue?
Yep. I think part of that has to do with it being the strength of this draft? But also I just think it’s the organizational mantra right now. Even if they do take Gonzales in the first round, I would imagine it won’t take them long to add a pitcher or three to this limited class.
9: Forget this year’s draft class: the suspension of the season seems like it’d have a big impact on young players for many years. Everyone, from HS underclassmen to young players at the big league level are losing out on important development due to Covid-19. What does this do to a player 5-6 years down the road? Are these worries overblown – is playing actual games less important than other aspects of training/preparation?
I don’t think it can be overstated, to be honest. Look, there’s a lot of things you can simulate now, and training regiments get better and better. You cannot replace the experience that comes from games. You just can’t. It’s not a death sentence, but prospects are going to be behind the eight ball because of this, I don’t think there’s any question. Allow me to be unprofessional for a moment: This all sucks. It really, really sucks.
10: Any local players who figure to hear their name called this year?
I can’t see any preps from this year going in the first five rounds, but could see a couple of local college arms. Stevie Emmanuel from UW is a 6-foot-5 right-hander who can get his fastball into the mid 90s and shows a pretty good breaking-ball when he’s at his best. The guy I’d target from the Huskies, however, is Braiden Ward. Some questions about how much offensive upside he has, but think of a faster Braden Bishop. A much faster Braden Bishop, in fact. Scouts are mixed on him as a pro prospect, but I could see him being a very solid fourth outfielder — maybe a starter if the hit tool can be even average.
_________________________________________________________
The MLB draft kicks off today at 4pm, with the first round (including the first Competitive Balance round) today on MLB Network, and the balance coming tomorrow. The M’s have one pick today, the #6 overall pick (you could, if you wanted, say that the M’s are the #6 org today), and then the #43 pick tomorrow along with pick #64 in the second Competitive Balance round, compensation from their trade of Omar Narvaez.
Finally, Black Lives Matter.
[Edit to add: the M’s first pick, and #6 overall, is U. of Georgia right-hander Emerson Hancock.
Check out the FB/CH combo here. Touches high-90s. Great sophomore season last year, and had 34 Ks to 3 BB in 24 IP this year.]