Game 20, Mariners at Rangers
Taijuan Walker vs. Jordan Lyles, 6:05pm
The M’s, like pretty much every team, had struggled to turn balls in play into hits this season. Playing in Arlington has certainly helped, as there’ve been all sorts of base hits in this series. That’s been good for both teams, and despite a few HRs, it’s felt like an old-school series, without tons of strikeouts.
I mention this because I happened to check the M’s batting splits, and they’ve been the worst *home* batting team. One big driver of those ugly numbers, and no, I wasn’t going to say “Evan White”, is their BABIP, which is .237, the lowest in MLB. Their isolated power is awful, too, at .106, tied with this Ranger ballclub. Why is T-Mobile park playing like it’s 2011?
The line-up is undoubtedly part of it, of course. But another possibility came up today: T-Mobile park is using a Coors Field-style humidor to store baseballs. Ben Lindbergh of the Ringer tweeted this as part of a discussion about MLB trying to get some consistency in the ball, not only between years (which they’ve completely failed to do) but between parks. Thus, the M’s, Mets, and Red Sox applied to use the humidor, and MLB approved it. The humidors all seem to be set to the settings Colorado used, and which Arizona adopted as well: 70 degrees and 55% relative humidity.
The question that immediately comes to mind is: how does this differ from how the balls were stored before? Colorado and Arizona are two of the driest parks in the game; other than Salt Lake City, I’m not sure there are too many places *less* humid than Phoenix/Denver. But New York, Boston, Seattle, etc. have relative humidity sitting much higher than 55% most of the time. But maybe comparing it to the overall city isn’t the point – what matters is how different it is from the room where the balls were stored last year. Air conditioning, heating, air flow, etc. could have kept the humidity higher or lower than 55%; I have no idea what it was. All we can do is just see how T-Mobile plays compared to their AL West rivals, none of which (to my knowledge) have gone with humidors yet.
This may make some competitive sense, given that the M’s were probably stunned when Seattle suddenly stopped preventing HRs and played much more neutral in 2016-2019. With a staff of young pitchers, it might be good if the ball didn’t fly as far at home, however much that might frustrate the hitters. But again: it’s not clear that this move WOULD inhibit ball flight, and certainly not as much as the 2020 baseball’s increased drag already does. It’ll be interesting to follow this throughout the year. For now, the M’s have a wRC+ of 119 on the road, compared to that ugly 64 at home. These are splits of an already-tiny sample, but hey, you know the drill.
We’re at the 1/3 mark on this little season-let, and the M’s brass is pretty encouraged with how things are going. Not on the field, but the progress in remaking what had been a moribund farm system. That Seattle Times story from Ryan Divish talks about the M’s system ranking #3 in BaseballAmerica’s new system rankings, up from, well, 30 a few years ago.
Different fans react to this very differently, from optimists excited that the vaunted plan is coming together, and pessimists pointing to other times the M’s have amassed a stable of highly-regarded prospects. It’s so easy to move the goalposts; I’ve derided the team talking about contention in 2019-2020, then 2021, and Divish’s story quotes Dipoto speculating that it could be 2022. But then, if they’re really good a year ‘late’ I don’t think anyone will deduct style points or whatever. What we need to do is figure out how to measure the success or failure of each year, starting with this one. Essentially, we need to get more specific about measuring progress (or the lack thereof).
So, what should it be? Does *each* young player the M’s are counting on need to meet some target? Or most? Or half? To me, some of the most important measures are: Can Sheffield and Dunn limit walks, namely, can they keep their BB% around 9-9.5%? Can Dunn strike out 7-8 per 9? Can Evan White strike out less than 30% from this point forward? Can JP Crawford finish with an ISO above .130 and a K% less than 20% (he’s shattering that K% goal right now)? Can Kyle Lewis maintain his hot start by hitting at a 110 wRC+/DRC+ level from here until the end of the year? Can Yusei Kikuchi finish the year with an ERA/FIP nearer to 4-4.5?
1: Crawford, SS
2: Moore, 1B
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Nola, C
6: Long, 2B
7: Vogelbach, DH
8: Lopes, LF
9: Smith, RF
SP: Walker
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18 Responses to “Game 20, Mariners at Rangers”
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Glad to see White sitting and glad to see Moore walking.
Weird situation with the humidor. But hey, it’s a year for experimenting, right? Funny thing is that the Rangers have a worse home wRC+ at 50.
Nice start to the game for Austin Nola.
Earlier today I realized Dylan Moore has somewhat of a history getting hit by pitches.
Tonight he has one and nearly had another in his third AB.
It’s so easy to move the goalposts; I’ve derided the team talking about contention in 2019-2020, then 2021, and Divish’s story quotes Dipoto speculating that it could be 2022. But then, if they’re really good a year ‘late’ I don’t think anyone will deduct style points or whatever. What we need to do is figure out how to measure the success or failure of each year, starting with this one. Essentially, we need to get more specific about measuring progress (or the lack thereof).
That’s basically been my position in my running commentary- if it’s a tank job for the next year or three where we literally do not care about wins and losses, then we’d better care about some other things and have other ways to figure out if we have indicators for future success. Thanks for the list.
That Divish article slyly notes that suddenly the M’s will bring up Baseball America rankings when they’re on their side…
The point I would make is that when you’re in legitimately bad, 60 wins land based on true talent, it’s pretty impossible to make the leap to contention in one year. You really need two; you need to be mediocre-bad first before you’re good (see: A’s and Astros in recent years). There are many examples of 70-75 win teams coming together and adding 10-15+ wins in a year. Adding 25+ wins to a 60ish win team is just too high a mountain to summit in one go.
Last year’s team was in that range of being just terrible once you slice off the hot start and the MLB-caliber veterans. This team is regularly playing reserve IFers in corner OF positions, 1B and DH are basically sub-replacement level right now, has an atrocious bullpen, and is still in that range of “this team is as legitimately bad as any M’s team ever was”, from the play so far this year and by Pythag. So oh well, 2020 is toast on actually improving the overall team quality. Better luck next year?
Yes, EC, I think we’re thinking the same thing – it’s been a theme in my posts. But my reaction to the Divish article made me think: if I chuckle at the FO moving goal posts, aren’t I potentially guilty of the same thing unless I get more specific about goals and targets? I have no idea if these targets are ‘right’ but we need to see clear signs that the club is raising the overall level of pitching performance, for example. Or that they can identify what pitchers are doing to White/Vogie and counter those tactics. That should show up in box scores, even if the overall season slash line sucks. Same with, say, Dunn’s pitching line, or Kikuchi’s.
Guys… agreed that setting achievable goals / expectations is a good thing.
However, if the humidor is having an effect, then the pitching goals should be raised in certain areas… humidor won’t help Dunn strike more guys out, but it should reduce Kikuchi’s and others HR rate and ERA
It will obviously be difficult to measure progress with the prospects not currently on the MLB team, but I think we have to look at process more than results for most of the players on the active roster.
For example, Lewis has lowered his K% and shown the ability to adapt to a steady diet of breaking balls. That’s more impressive than just hitting some mistakes and sporting an unsustainable ISO. Crawford has shown confidence and discipline just as he had in the minors and he doesn’t have any real alarming flags (unless you cite the ISO). Sheffield has not only mixed up his pitches, but the speeds as well.
The bullpen is the primary source of suck right now, followed by slow/horrible starts by short-termers like Smith, Gordon, and probably Vogelbach. I can live with that for 40 more games.
But I really think we have to look at this two different ways. One is with the development of prospects and the other is the acquisitions/identification of outside options. Some are proving to be interesting right now, such as Nola and Moore.
That said, I’m morbidly curious which free agents might be targeted and what kind of money Dipoto’s willing to throw at them and when.
I agree on Kyle Lewis’ progress. Though Craig Edwards pointed out in a Fangraphs chat that Lewis’ OPS+ is 95 over the last ten games. As he said, that plays, but it doesn’t resemble his hot start, when he was all K’s and bombs, for value.
I want to see how Kelenic, Gilbert, Rodriguez, Hancock, and Marte handle MLB. If there are 5 players you really want to see them hit on, I would argue it’s those guys. We’ll get a look at two of them next year.
Seattle should start investing in players that won’t break the bank nor block the path of the aforementioned. I can think of a couple that will hit free agency this off-season.
The bullpen is the primary source of suck right now, followed by slow/horrible starts by short-termers like Smith, Gordon, and probably Vogelbach. I can live with that for 40 more games.
I have to point out those were Dipoto’s picks- he is the reason they are on the roster. It’s not like Bill Bavasi or Jack Zduriencik signed them and he’s still suffering from their screwups in those cases. “OK, they were misses, we’ll get it right next time”… well, OK, how many next times do you get?
I want to see how Kelenic, Gilbert, Rodriguez, Hancock, and Marte handle MLB. If there are 5 players you really want to see them hit on, I would argue it’s those guys. We’ll get a look at two of them next year.
That seems like a reasonable list. That being said, had the M’s spent a little cash on a corner OFer and a couple of bullpen guys to make this team more palatable in 2020, less in the “terrible team” and more in the “not really very good but closer to OK” zone by tossing out 10-15 million in cash in 2020 salary for some 1-3 year deals, this would have blocked exactly zero of those players, really. Worst case, Hypothetical FA Corner OFer is now contesting for DH + a bench position in 2021 with the likes of Fraley and Large Adult Son, or Kelenic and/or Rodriguez have to really play their way on the roster. Or you have someone under contract you can trade for another roster hole. Or whatever.
“What a terrible thing, we have four legitimate average or better major league outfielders on our major league roster”, said no MLB organization ever. Talent logjams are a problem you actually WANT to have.
That said, I’m morbidly curious which free agents might be targeted and what kind of money Dipoto’s willing to throw at them and when.
It’s going to be a very weird offseason to want to dive headfirst into free agency, possibly problematic, because a) you have a 60 game sample size to evaluate players on their last season, not 162, plus probably not as much scouting and data as you are used to because games are largely closed to the public and the alternate site is also closed, b) baseball is going to be undergoing a financial contraction due to the pandemic, and c) oh yeah, the expiration of the agreement between MLB and the MLBPA probably means a strike in 2022, given how 2020 worked out… so I would expect some bumpiness in the road in terms of player and team contract value evaluation given that.
Despite ownership going “hey, we wrote checks yesterday, and we’ll write some checks tomorrow, but no checks today” in the recent past, I have to wonder if they’ll continue to largely punt on the FA market for 2020-2021, aside from the dumpster dive specials because of those factors. It seems more unpredictable than usual. That will be teeth-gnashingly annoying if we’re in 2021 and the M’s are still in legit-bad mode and still throwing nickels around like they were manhole covers, but it might not be the wrong call.
I have to point out those were Dipoto’s picks- he is the reason they are on the roster. It’s not like Bill Bavasi or Jack Zduriencik signed them and he’s still suffering from their screwups in those cases.
You can add Aoki, Dae-ho Lee, and Rzepczynski to that list. He missed on nearly every free agent signing. Then there were the comparative trades for guys like Lind and Miley.
But all of those acquisitions/mistakes serve as proof that the limited financial flexibility he had and talent pool to trade from simply weren’t enough. He spread out his resources with the $2 lottery tickets he was allotted and fell short. That’s on him, but it’s on the ownership. One of the best things that might have happened with this organization over the last 20 years was Stanton taking over the majority ownership and Lincoln stepping aside. Again, I look at this as two different eras with Dipoto, but those early shortcomings may have been necessary to get the organization to do things right. Had the M’s gotten in to the post-season, they probably wouldn’t have gotten far, and the mess that followed would have been even larger.
That seems like a reasonable list. That being said, had the M’s spent a little cash on a corner OFer and a couple of bullpen guys to make this team more palatable in 2020, less in the “terrible team” and more in the “not really very good but closer to OK” zone by tossing out 10-15 million in cash in 2020 salary for some 1-3 year deals, this would have blocked exactly zero of those players, really.
They weren’t going to spend on an outfielder with Bishop, Fraley, and Lewis all poised for significant playing time, Kelenic edging closer and Rodriguez not far behind him. Likewise, they weren’t going to spend on a second baseman with Gordon still around and Long presumably ready for extensive action, nor first base with Evan White so close (yeah) to his debut.
That said, I was all for bringing in a veteran like Grandal and/or Rendon if they really felt they could break out of the rebuild and contend in 2021. I think they’ve known all along that 2022 was more realistic before the pandemic. But I would remind everyone that the biggest reason for the 7-13 record is the bullpen, which should look entirely different in two years after decisions have been made with starters like Sheffield, Dunn, Williamson, Then, and a number of other graduations.
It’s going to be a very weird offseason to want to dive headfirst into free agency, possibly problematic, because a) you have a 60 game sample size to evaluate players on their last season, not 162, plus probably not as much scouting and data as you are used to because games are largely closed to the public and the alternate site is also closed, b) baseball is going to be undergoing a financial contraction due to the pandemic, and c) oh yeah, the expiration of the agreement between MLB and the MLBPA probably means a strike in 2022, given how 2020 worked out… so I would expect some bumpiness in the road in terms of player and team contract value evaluation given that.
This was more or less the focal point of my last comment, albeit without detail. I think we have plenty of evidence that the developmental system is working, but that’s only part of the rebuild and at some point they have to draw a line and address needs with outside sources. Everything we’re experiencing now creates a number of arguments both for and against spending this coming off-season, but what they can’t afford to do is stall much longer.
They have to start investing in veterans … soon.
I should add that I’m not so sure a strike is likely given the need/desire for owners to recuperate lost income. That won’t happen overnight. I would guess that it’s more likely that we see the framework drawn up well before the 2022 off-season and that the rest will get hammered out relatively quick. Does anyone really want a repeat–or worse–from what was experienced April through June? Can’t rule anything out, but I would be more concerned about payroll limitations as a side effect of this bizarre season than a strike happening.
You can add Aoki, Dae-ho Lee, and Rzepczynski to that list. He missed on nearly every free agent signing. Then there were the comparative trades for guys like Lind and Miley.
So… isn’t this an important part of the job, to not miss on FA signings and talent evaluation of veterans? There’s going to come a time where we’re going to have to make “should we trade Varitek and Lowe for Slocumb” decisions again (I know, that’s literally the worst, unfairest example, but the point is being a superior GM is not just about restocking the farm.)
That said, I was all for bringing in a veteran like Grandal and/or Rendon if they really felt they could break out of the rebuild and contend in 2021.
The thing is contention in 2021 is a lot more reasonable if you’re not starting with a) kids, b) rubble strewn with salt, and c) Kyle Seager as a major league roster. Yeah, Rendon or whoever on a multi year deal doesn’t help win in 2020 maybe, just moves the needle to “less crappy team”, but the name of the game is cutting down that 30 win true talent mountain so the next push doesn’t have to be so hard, if your goal is actually winning games instead of saving some $$$.
I am suggesting Mariner ownership is probably being slightly disingenuous about their desire to spend money; I think they’re doing a tank job and pocketing the profits. Given how 2020 has panned out, it’s actually turned out to be a pretty brilliant move in hindsight, even though the team’s awful and nobody wanted it to turn out this way. The M’s are in the bottom third of the league on salary, salary expenses got shaved, and EVERYONE had their attendance kneecapped, so having a crappy team that doesn’t draw doesn’t hurt them like it normally would. Nobody gets to have good attendance based on a fanbase.
They have to start investing in veterans … soon.
They don’t really have to (if by soon you mean “this offseason”). Going Marlins/A’s style dumpster diving (basically what they did for 2020- don’t spend any monrey*), repeatedly failing, and tanking Astros-style for an extended period is completely an option- the Astros spent 3 years as a 50 win team and a fourth as a 90 loss team. If you start the clock in 2019 that would mean the M’s would be legitimately a bad team through the 2022 season.
That timeline of course means that Dipoto would be starting year 8 as a Mariner GM with zero playoff games and two winning seasons out of seven. If ownership is fine with that because We Trust The Process™… well, the fans don’t get to fire the owners, and while this might incinerate the local fan base for a while, presumably it will come back once there’s a good team.
The catch being that we haven’t seen the good team yet.
*The A’s are spending all of 5 million less than the M’s are on payroll, and in terms of “useful payroll that helps the 2020 team win games”, they’re probably ahead of the M’s. Quite the change.
I’m short on time, but let me tackle one thing for now.
So… isn’t this an important part of the job, to not miss on FA signings and talent evaluation of veterans? There’s going to come a time where we’re going to have to make “should we trade Varitek and Lowe for Slocumb” decisions again (I know, that’s literally the worst, unfairest example, but the point is being a superior GM is not just about restocking the farm.)
Missing out on a free agent with limited upside and at a limited cost isn’t a big deal. Missing out on a 20-30m AAV player, would be. And to be fair, it looks like he has hit on a number of under-the-radar players since the rebuild started, such as Adams, Murphy, Nola, Moore, etc.
They don’t really have to (if by soon you mean “this offseason”). Going Marlins/A’s style dumpster diving (basically what they did for 2020- don’t spend any monrey*), repeatedly failing, and tanking Astros-style for an extended period is completely an option- the Astros spent 3 years as a 50 win team and a fourth as a 90 loss team. If you start the clock in 2019 that would mean the M’s would be legitimately a bad team through the 2022 season.
Yeah, except they’re not tanking. I’m not going to explain it for a second (or third?) time. They really do have to start bringing in veterans this off-season and I think they will. Maybe not a George Springer (hopefully not, anyway), but a Joc Pederson?
That timeline of course means that Dipoto would be starting year 8 as a Mariner GM with zero playoff games and two winning seasons out of seven. If ownership is fine with that because We Trust The Process™… well, the fans don’t get to fire the owners, and while this might incinerate the local fan base for a while, presumably it will come back once there’s a good team.
This is getting old. He was hired with the task of using what they had to sneak into the post-season. That didn’t happen. If they were going to fire him, it should have been then. But they didn’t, he turned the farm around with one huge off-season, and the developmental process has taken it from there.
This is year two of the rebuild. Repeatedly complaining about a worst-case scenario now is pointless, especially considering we have seen progress in the minors and some early success this season with several prospects translating their skills and tools to the major-leagues. If he misses on expensive free agents, and/or several of the elite prospects flame out, there will be plenty to gripe about. But right now, there’s really no reason for alarm.
Yeah, except they’re not tanking.
Management is not spending money on 2020 payroll. They are in the bottom third of MLB for payroll. They are closer to the Marlins at the bottom of MLB payroll than they are to the team that’s 10th in MLB, so they are firmly in the “we’re cheap bastards and we’re not spending any money to win games” realm. Nobody on the Mariners is on a contract that Billy Beane, Patron Saint of GMs Working For Tightwad Owners, couldn’t live with.
Management has spent the last two years saying “we’re not going to spend money and we’re not going to try to contend because We Trust The Process™ and it’s not time to do it now”. How else should we interpret “step back”? This means they did not address very obvious talent deficiencies on the major league roster with free agents or trades because they basically wanted to have the Seattle Mariners be the Tacoma Rainiers, except playing in MLB not the PCL, and do talent evaluation of their kids, live on the MLB roster.
I posit if you’re not actually trying to win actual MLB baseball games during the 2019-2020 seasons (and very clearly the M’s aren’t prioritizing this), you’re tanking. Yes, I get it, We Trust The Process™. Fine. The Process says that right now, we don’t spend any money and if it gets us a 60 win true talent team while we watch Bryan Shaw get lit up and definitively show he doesn’t belong on a MLB roster, that’s fine, Servais can say keep saying nice things about how the kids are learning to battle through adversity during the post-game Zoom call following another 7-3 loss.
They really do have to start bringing in veterans this off-season.
Not really. I think ownership would be fine continuing to go cheap in 2021 if it broke that way, based on what I stated before: it’s going to be a weird FA market to make decisions in. The Miami Marlins have proven you don’t have to try to make some money in MLB, and the Astros and A’s spent a few years staggering around looking bad at the bottom of the AL West. I also don’t think it matters very much if the M’s mail it in next year; if they’ve coughed up 2019 and 2020, what’s another one? Especially since 2020 was sort of a bad joke of a season anyway?
If I am wrong, and ownership puts up the signal that it’s cool to spend money, put in some complimentary pieces, and try to go for the “this is not a good team, but it’s not a terrible team” phase of the rebuild, great. There is no reason why you can’t do that at any time, though, except… if you’re tanking. Because there are benefits to it (talent at the high end of the draft). Which is no doubt part of the calculus here.
Management is not spending money on 2020 payroll. They are in the bottom third of MLB for payroll. They are closer to the Marlins at the bottom of MLB payroll than they are to the team that’s 10th in MLB, so they are firmly in the “we’re cheap bastards and we’re not spending any money to win games” realm. Nobody on the Mariners is on a contract that Billy Beane, Patron Saint of GMs Working For Tightwad Owners, couldn’t live with.
Fine, one last time…
If they were tanking, they would have gutted the team completely; ate salary to move Seager and Gordon and traded Gonzo and Haniger. They didn’t do that. They haven’t set out to intentionally lose and their payroll mirrors the Twins. They brought in starters they felt would bolster the staff and hold the fort til Gilbert was ready and even spent a little more than expected on relievers, both of which are on the IL now.
Management has spent the last two years saying “we’re not going to spend money and we’re not going to try to contend because We Trust The Process™ and it’s not time to do it now”. How else should we interpret “step back”? This means they did not address very obvious talent deficiencies on the major league roster with free agents or trades because they basically wanted to have the Seattle Mariners be the Tacoma Rainiers, except playing in MLB not the PCL, and do talent evaluation of their kids, live on the MLB roster.
Rebuild does not = tanking. You can rebuild without trying to intentionally trying to lose. This shouldn’t be hard to understand.
Not really. I think ownership would be fine continuing to go cheap in 2021 if it broke that way, based on what I stated before: it’s going to be a weird FA market to make decisions in. The Miami Marlins have proven you don’t have to try to make some money in MLB, and the Astros and A’s spent a few years staggering around looking bad at the bottom of the AL West. I also don’t think it matters very much if the M’s mail it in next year; if they’ve coughed up 2019 and 2020, what’s another one? Especially since 2020 was sort of a bad joke of a season anyway?
Do you think Jerry has a lifetime contract? He had to sell ownership on rebuilding. He had to give them a target date and lay out his plan detailing how he intended to execute. Maybe he gets a pass for 2020, but if the right personnel at the right price is there, I don’t think they can afford to pass. I wouldn’t be surprised if he steers clear of players with the QO, but that’s probably not going to be an issue this coming off-season anyway.
If I am wrong, and ownership puts up the signal that it’s cool to spend money, put in some complimentary pieces, and try to go for the “this is not a good team, but it’s not a terrible team” phase of the rebuild, great. There is no reason why you can’t do that at any time, though, except… if you’re tanking. Because there are benefits to it (talent at the high end of the draft). Which is no doubt part of the calculus here.
Yeah, there is reason you can’t do that anytime. The pieces you need aren’t always readily available or for a cost you can afford, regardless of status. I wouldn’t anticipate major spending, but bringing in a position player or two that can give you some solid production and a couple of relievers? Sure.
Bottom line is that there is nothing wrong with where Jerry has the organization right now. You can argue all you want, but at the end of the day, Seattle has a top-3 farm, multiple players transforming into decent, if not solid, major-leaguers, and the cream of the crop has yet to come.
Have a good night.
If they were tanking, they would have gutted the team completely; ate salary to move Seager and Gordon and traded Gonzo and Haniger. They didn’t do that.
Gordon didn’t and doesn’t have trade value (boat anchor contract + bench player production + over 30 = no trade value). Seager didn’t have trade value in early 2019 (boat anchor contract + coming off a bad year + wrong side 30 for the rest of his contract = no trade value). And didn’t you just suggest trading Seager? There’s nobody pushing him in the minors, so the M’s would be taking a bullet and creating a hole in the roster that isn’t immediately patchable. In other words… tanking.
Haniger and Gonzales are on perfectly team-friendly contracts, so there’s no actual need to trade them if 2019-2020 are “we don’t care about wins so we might as well be cheap” years in Dipoto’s Five Year Plan. Even the Marlins don’t have a roster of 25 first year pre-arb rookies (though I suppose they could); the 2020 Marlins roster has a few players making well over MLB minimums… just like the M’s.
Right now, the M’s don’t have many players who have much in trade value fitting the classic “dump veterans for whatever you can get because lol who cares” model; I think Seager is marginal based on contract and how 2021 is going to shape up (I don’t think he’d get a very good deal if he hit the market). Gonzales is probably the best example (as a mid-level starter on a team friendly contract), or maybe Walker for a team that wants a rental for the playoffs. Kikuchi hasn’t shown very much and that contract is a boat anchor. Haniger is probably done like Gutierrez was after blowing multiple years to injury. Everyone else is irrelevant or you’d have to be brain damaged to trade (and I think Jerry is likely a mediocre GM, not brain damaged).
Anyways, “tanking” means Dipoto has traded wins and talent from the 2019-2020 teams to (allegedly) future M’s teams. When you do that, it’s tanking in my view. If you have less talented players because you sent the talented ones for guys in AA ball who won’t be really ready for a year or three, you win less games. It’s intentional, if not as blatant as trading everyone on your team for non-prospects and playing a roster of A-ball guys. You are taking wins from now and putting them in the future.
The team clearly could have spent more this offseason. Payroll is down almost half of what it was in 2018. They didn’t.
Do you think Jerry has a lifetime contract? He had to sell ownership on rebuilding. He had to give them a target date and lay out his plan detailing how he intended to execute. Maybe he gets a pass for 2020, but if the right personnel at the right price is there, I don’t think they can afford to pass.
Obviously the plan and ownership expectations are flexible because “step back” turned into “whoa, we’re actually legitimately bad”, and he’s still here.
I suggest the 2020-2021 offseason is likely to be challenging to address roster needs in free agency, and he could get a pass on that.
The pieces you need aren’t always readily available or for a cost you can afford, regardless of status.
Which is why it might have been nice to sign those players in 2019 or 2020. The tradeoff being that a 75 win team in 2019 (or the equivalent in 2020’s short season) gets worse draft picks.
Bottom line is that there is nothing wrong with where Jerry has the organization right now.
The Mariners right now are as legitimately bad as they have ever been. As in “among lowest in MLB true talent roster, among the worst teams in MLB by W/L”.
That’s a range that gets people fired. Yes, the Astros pulled out of it, and it was a delibrate plan. Then again, the Tigers crawled out of it to make 2 World Series appearances in a decade, and a run of playoff appearances, only to fall back into the “wow, you’re bad” pit. The Pirates got all of three years as a good team before they stumbled back into “bad team” hell. San Diego has spent a decade stumbling around as a bad team.
“But the kids-”
So, let me tell you a story. Imagine a roster where you have a low 60’s win team.
That team proceeds to play and develop 4 Hall of Famers along with guys who make multiple All Star teams all through the succeeding decade. Pretty good farm system, right?
During the time those four Hall of Famers are on the same team and in the same lineup, the high point in single season wins for the franchise is… 90. Achieved exactly once.
I’ve just described the 1992 Seattle Mariners to you.
Farm system production is an important thing, but it’s not the only thing. Superior GMs have to do more than just produce talent out of the farm.
My argument is that I’ve seen enough “WTF?” from Trader Jerry (Dee Gordon seems to have been a waste of everyone’s time, I could go on) that I’m not taking “oh, he’s a good GM, We Trust In The Process™” on credit. This isn’t like Billy Beane proving he can build a winner for $5.23. I’m going to need to see actual results in all facets, not just “the farm is pumping out some dudes”. We’re not there yet. I reserve judgment on the future. The record to present indicates (to me) “mediocre”. Not terrible, just not good.
Gordon didn’t and doesn’t have trade value (boat anchor contract + bench player production + over 30 = no trade value). Seager didn’t have trade value in early 2019 (boat anchor contract + coming off a bad year + wrong side 30 for the rest of his contract = no trade value). And didn’t you just suggest trading Seager? There’s nobody pushing him in the minors, so the M’s would be taking a bullet and creating a hole in the roster that isn’t immediately patchable. In other words… tanking.
Right, Gordon wasn’t moveable, despite being a year removed from success. Seager, same. You really think they couldn’t have found a taker if they were willing to eat salary? Or, imagine if they were to pair either player with someone like, say, Haniger or Gonzales? But pairing players like that never happens, right?
Not tanking, no matter how you try to spin it. Regardless, I was never for or against moving Seager. I never cared that much. But suggesting they try to move him now, on the eve of Kelenic and Gilbert debuting and with less $ owed, isn’t quite the same as it was roughly two years ago, is it? They have alternatives as well. Dylan Moore has arguably earned an extended look at one position. Tim Lopes might even be able to handle it. Had they moved him sooner, there were stopgaps available for a fraction of the cost. It’s not like they had to have an internal option.
Haniger and Gonzales are on perfectly team-friendly contracts, so there’s no actual need to trade them if 2019-2020 are “we don’t care about wins so we might as well be cheap” years in Dipoto’s Five Year Plan. Even the Marlins don’t have a roster of 25 first year pre-arb rookies (though I suppose they could); the 2020 Marlins roster has a few players making well over MLB minimums… just like the M’s.
More spinning. Those two had among the most trade value and you know it. A tanking team would have moved them.
Right now, the M’s don’t have many players who have much in trade value fitting the classic “dump veterans for whatever you can get because lol who cares” model; I think Seager is marginal based on contract and how 2021 is going to shape up (I don’t think he’d get a very good deal if he hit the market). Gonzales is probably the best example (as a mid-level starter on a team friendly contract), or maybe Walker for a team that wants a rental for the playoffs. Kikuchi hasn’t shown very much and that contract is a boat anchor. Haniger is probably done like Gutierrez was after blowing multiple years to injury. Everyone else is irrelevant or you’d have to be brain damaged to trade (and I think Jerry is likely a mediocre GM, not brain damaged).
Well, no kidding. They could likely shed Seager’s contract, but Haniger obviously has no value on the IL and Gonzales was extended for a reason. But what’s your point? None of that suggests they’re tanking.
Anyways, “tanking” means Dipoto has traded wins and talent from the 2019-2020 teams to (allegedly) future M’s teams. When you do that, it’s tanking in my view. If you have less talented players because you sent the talented ones for guys in AA ball who won’t be really ready for a year or three, you win less games. It’s intentional, if not as blatant as trading everyone on your team for non-prospects and playing a roster of A-ball guys. You are taking wins from now and putting them in the future.
You have a funny definition of ‘tanking’. For most people, tanking means intentionally trying to lose. Teams that are trying to lose don’t keep assets like Haniger and Gonzales (nor try to extend them). ‘Tanking’ and ‘stepping back’ don’t mesh, either. I never believed Seattle could actually contend in just two years, but become competitive? Sure. The pandemic has pushed everything back a good year, but that’s irrelevant.
The team clearly could have spent more this offseason. Payroll is down almost half of what it was in 2018. They didn’t.
With the bulk of the top prospects having been due to debut in September or 2021-2022, nobody should have expected much spending. I was hopeful they would have done so anyway, but it isn’t hard to understand why they chose to wait.
That said, they still brought Walker, Graveman, Hirano, and Edwards. They tried to sign Walker to a contract with an option, but he wasn’t interested. Graveman and Edwards could be kept around to help them not tank next year.
Obviously the plan and ownership expectations are flexible because “step back” turned into “whoa, we’re actually legitimately bad”, and he’s still here.
Nobody ever proclaimed 2020 was going to be a contention year and ownership new full well what they were getting into with a rebuild. The 2019 was worse than anticipated, but so what? You actually think that shocked or changed anything for ownership? If anything shocked them, it was the rapid rise and strength of the farm.
I suggest the 2020-2021 offseason is likely to be challenging to address roster needs in free agency, and he could get a pass on that.
Obviously there’s a line, but Dipoto himself has been clear that he understands the importance of having veterans around. With Gordon and Smith both likely gone, and possibly Seager, there won’t be many mentors around.
The Mariners right now are as legitimately bad as they have ever been. As in “among lowest in MLB true talent roster, among the worst teams in MLB by W/L”.
If not, pretty close. But context matters, doesn’t it? Rebuilding teams loaded with youth aren’t expected to contend. Add in a number of injuries–notably to relievers (Adams, Hirano, & Edwards)–and it’s pretty easy to understand why they’re a little worse than expected. They’re still achieving goals for long-term success. Again, there’s nothing wrong with where he has the organization right now, no matter how you try to spin it.
…I’ve just described the 1992 Seattle Mariners to you.
The neat part about story-telling is that you can borrow players from the ’94 team to make it sound more interesting.
Seriously, you don’t have to have 3 or 4 future Hall of Famers to contend. You do need a roster of 26 (almost botched that) good players with at least a handful that produce like stars in a given year.
Farm system production is an important thing, but it’s not the only thing. Superior GMs have to do more than just produce talent out of the farm.
You do realize that I said almost the same thing, right? That’s the focus right now, and it’s going well, but free agency and trades will factor into the success or failure as well.
My argument is that I’ve seen enough “WTF?” from Trader Jerry (Dee Gordon seems to have been a waste of everyone’s time, I could go on) that I’m not taking “oh, he’s a good GM, We Trust In The Process™” on credit. This isn’t like Billy Beane proving he can build a winner for $5.23. I’m going to need to see actual results in all facets, not just “the farm is pumping out some dudes”. We’re not there yet. I reserve judgment on the future. The record to present indicates (to me) “mediocre”. Not terrible, just not good.
I perfectly understand skepticism. I have my gripes as well and have my questions & reservations over future free agent signings and larger trade acquisitions to come.
But so far, so good. I’m not going to hold anything against him because he didn’t have the dough to splurge on a center fielder like Cain and ended up missing on an improvisation plan with Gordon. He won’t have the same financial restrictions moving forward and I think he deserves more credit than you’re giving him. Imagine where this team would be right now if he had pushed in all his chips and traded Lewis, White, and Rodriguez to try to sneak into the post-season. Imagine if he hadn’t moved Cano.