Game 21, Mariners at Astros – Evan White’s Start
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Framber Valdez, 6:10pm
The M’s head back to Houston, where this bizarre season began. The Astros no longer seem like an unstoppable juggernaut, and are a good ways back of the surging Oakland A’s. Their line-up is hitting reasonably well, though quite a bit behind their standards of 2017-2019, but they’re struggling to play defense. The pitching is stuck in a similar predicament. They’re not out and out awful, but after years of being the best or one of the best teams in the game, being mediocre must seem pretty shocking.
Tonight’s starter, Framber Valdez, has been the best of an inconsistent bunch of starters. Justin Verlander got hurt, Josh James blew his chance to snag a rotation slot, and Gerrit Cole’s in pinstripes. The Astros have been very fortunate that Valdez was still kicking around the system as a depth guy. He throws a hard sinker at 93, and it’s very effective at getting grounders. His career GB% is 63%. It was much less effective at staying in the zone. His walk rates in 2018 and 2019 were off-the-charts high, which didn’t exactly kill his effectiveness, but certainly hampered it.
All that’s changed thus far in 2020, as his walk rate has fallen below 5%. He also throws a curve and a change he’s more confident in this campaign, and he’s throwing them all for strikes. The curve’s always gotten whiffs (when people swung at it), but poor fastball command probably limited his opportunity to use it. The M’s are a ground-ball hitting line-up, so this may be a tough match-up.
Evan White’s one of the M’s GB aficionados, with a GB% of 48.6%, significantly higher than the league average of 42.3%. It’s elevated, and it can’t exactly be a surprise, as it’s right in line with his GB% in Everett (48.8%) and Modesto (48.6%). It was lower last season, but he may be falling into old habits. Of course, the GB rate is not the big concern with White – it’s his inability to make contact. With a K rate of 42.5% in 73 PAs, it’s a major concern, and the M’s are undoubtedly working with him a lot. This is the kind of situation where you’d love to have a minor league to send him to – not the “alternative training site” but a league, playing actual games.
I wanted to see how common this was, and what happened to players who strike out so often in their first big-league at-bats. So, I looked for rookie-eligible players with at least 100 PAs in each seven seasons with K% of 30% or more. I found 82 player-seasons (some players, like Byron Buxton, had more than one qualified season), only 6 of which topped the 40% mark. While this would’ve been unthinkable in the ’80s or ’90s, many of these players were successful right from the beginning, despite elevated Ks. Aaron Judge and Kris Bryant are on the list, and both won Rookie of the Year. George Springer, Trevor Story, and Javier Baez have all been pretty productive, too. But obviously, it’s not really a list you want to be on, especially as a 1B. Many are IFs or CFs, and the list is littered with back-up catchers.
No, a really high K rate isn’t a kiss of death that’s impossible to come back from. But you need to be productive despite it. Sure, he’s hit the ball hard when he’s made contact, but he’s often hitting the ball down. He’s had 20 batted balls of at least 95mph, but 8 of these have been at under 5 degrees, meaning ground balls (another, at 7, was also a grounder). Another 4 were hit with such a large angle, that they became easy pop-ups. White’s been unlucky on balls in play, but his batted ball profile has to improve, too.
A number of these high-HR prospects had huge K rates – Joey Gallo being the classic example, but Baez and Judge fit the description, too. The catchers weren’t really supposed to hit, and hang around for other reasons. Many of the player had really high K rates coming up, so this wasn’t a gigantic shock – again, Gallo works for this, as would someone like Carlos Peguero, who debuted earlier than our view here.
I’ve tried to poke around and find some guys who had AA K rates in the same vicinity as White, and then high K rates as rookies. Springer and Santana K’d too much at that level, as did Gallo. Others, like Marrero, Aguilar, and Colabello, came through the minors more as *low* K guys. So, excluding the middle infielders and catchers, I just looked for a group of players who K’d within a couple of percentage points of White’s 23. Let’s see who we find…
…oooooh. Oh no. This is…this is not the list you want to be on at all. To be clear: I’m not saying White will share these guys’ fate. Widening the K rate bars just a teensy bit would include Judge, so just imagine Aaron Judge is listed too, and you’ll feel a lot better.
| AA K rate | AA wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|
| Marc Krauss | 24.4 | 110 |
| Mike Olt | 24 | 168 |
| Jon Singleton | 23.6 | 148 |
| Evan White | 23 | 132 |
| Matt Thaiss | 22.6 | 136 |
| Jabari Blash | 22.3 | 150 |
| Jake Cave | 22.3 | 121 |
| Clint Frazier | 22 | 129 |
| AJ Reed | 20.7 | 168 |
The player White looks the most like may be Thaiss, but of course your eye just goes right to Jon Singleton, with a very similar K rate in the same league (Texas League), and, of course, a very similar path to the majors (the very first extension prior to playing a game in MLB). Damn it. I’d always thought Blash struck out more, but he may have been saved by two very short stints in AA that I’ve rolled together for K% purposes. Many of these guys are still around; Jake Cave was OK for Minnesota a few years ago and still plays for them. Clint Frazier’s just never gotten an opportunity in New York, but he’s with them now. I just don’t know how we ended up with the flame-out first basemen in this – admittedly completely unscientific – list.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Moore, RF
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Nola, C
6: Lopes, DH
7: Long, 2B
8: White, 1B
9: Gordon, LF
SP: Kikuchi
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5 Responses to “Game 21, Mariners at Astros – Evan White’s Start”
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I guess the M’s decided to skip the part where the starter gives false hope and go straight to the sucky bullpen… Shame about Kikuchi.
Also, I was hoping White was a version of Justin Smoak who could figure out MLB pitching faster and didn’t field like he was wading through peanut butter. Yikes on those comps. I’m still hopeful that’s who he is…
Cortes was acquired for something like 20 or 30k in IBP cash.
I think I’ve seen enough Yankee relievers in Mariner uniforms.
I was late to tune in, and with the M’s already down 9-1 in the first… I just skipped it. Much better for my mental health.
Well, on the bright side we got a few good innings from Ramirez and Lail.
Not much of a bright side, but that’s the way it goes.
I’m in the send-Evan-to-the-pool camp, but I find it interesting that his average exit velocity is 91.1 and his peak was 111.1. That tops Lewis.
Then there’s the contact and zone contact. Those have to improve.