Game 29, Rangers at Mariners
Justus Sheffield vs. Jordan Lyles, 6:10pm
It’s hard to remember, but back before the 2011 season, the Astros were both 1) in the National League and 2) the laughingstock of the prospect/player development world. Their top prospect heading into the campaign wasn’t Dallas Keuchel (14th on some lists) or Jose Altuve (11th). It was Jordan Lyles, who’d done fairly well in AA as a teenager in 2010. The problem was that he was more of a command/control guy as opposed to a real power pitcher, and could have trouble missing big league bats.
That proved prescient, as he debuted in 2011 but couldn’t…miss a ton of bats, and thus wasn’t able to turn his legitimately good control into good overall results. It didn’t help that his team was awful, and about to get a lot worse. In three seasons from 2011-2013, Lyles couldn’t push his ERA under 5 despite a decent-ish FIP for a back-end starter. Like Kolby Allard last night – a guy with a remarkably similar profile, but for his handedness – Lyles struggled with men on base, and thus with a poor strand rate. He also struggled with HRs, which was somewhat notable given the time period – there were far fewer of them then than there are in recent years.
Thus, it didn’t look good for his career that he moved from Houston to Colorado. However, Lyles put together a very good first year with the Rockies in 2014. Shockingly, his HRs-allowed fell despite moving up to altitude, but there were some concerning signs: his walk rate started to climb. That problem only got worse the next two years, and by 2016, he was a bullpen arm/swingman. Since then, he’s been a consistent presence on the trade wire – he’s played for two teams in each season since 2017. Lyles has a four-seam fastball at 92, a hard change in the high 80s, a slider, and a curve – his best secondary. He’s traditionally had some sizable platoon splits, with a much worse K:BB ratio against lefties.
Justus Sheffield has had similar issues stranding runners, but has enjoyed a pretty good year despite some BABIP trouble. That’s a rare thing on this staff, as M’s pitchers/defense are not allowing many balls in play to fall in. It hasn’t exactly mattered. Still, it’s nice to see that Sheffield’s solid run hasn’t just been BABIP luck. The fact that he hasn’t yielded a dinger yet may be lucky, sure, but he’s done pretty well overall. He’s missing bats when needed, and his walk rate has come down nicely. Now, it’s just about consistency. Sheffield’s got to show that this is who he is now: a guy the M’s can count on for 2021.
It is interesting that unlike a number of M’s minor leaguers, Sheffield’s velo seems to be going the wrong way. He averaged a bit over 93 last year, and is just under 92 now. Maybe that’s just the result of the weird, shortened, two-part spring training – a factor James Paxton blamed for the injury that sent him to the Yankees IL. So far, it hasn’t really hurt him. It’s a different sort of pitch now, but his whiff rate on it hasn’t really changed (it’s still not *good*, mind you), and that sinker seems to be playing well with his slider.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haggerty, LF
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Nola, C
6: White, 1B
7: Fraley, RF
8: Lopes, DH
9: Long, 2B
SP: Sheffield
Yes, Jake Fraley’s back. The CF/OF the M’s picked up from Tampa made his debut last year, and while it didn’t exactly go well, he’s got more upside than guys like Bishop, who’s spot he’s essentially taking tonight. The spot he’s taking on the active roster is Dylan Moore’s. Moore will head to the IL with a sprained wrist.
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9 Responses to “Game 29, Rangers at Mariners”
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Fraley and Bishop could probably both use extended stints in the minors. Problem is, there isn’t a minor league.
Sheffield has looked good and he has came a long way, but maybe Seattle should be looking at extending Walker and consider moving Sheff while his value might be high? If a team like Tampa is bent on adding inexpensive controllable starting pitching, maybe they would part with a middle-infielder? A reliever or two could go with him.
Just a thought.
Welcome back to the lineup Evan White.
What will happen first: Crawford with an extra-base hit, or Long with any kind of hit?
The answer to my question was Long, but the night belonged to White, Lewis, and Sheffield.
That said, I was asking myself which team in the west is the biggest mess right now. Texas is a collective mess, whereas LA is just a pitching disaster.
Perfect through 3.2, Dunn walked Santana in the fourth.
The no-hitter is still intact. Damn the jinx.
Well, there goes the no-hitter.
Really had my hopes up, though there’s still hope for another “Dunn Deal” pun as well as a shutout.
That Lewis kid isn’t too bad…..
When are the M’s going to release Altavilla? All he ever does is give up homeruns.
Altavilla has been hit hard a few times, but he has shut down opponents as well. His ability to miss bats should be attractive to other teams if Seattle’s interested in trading him.