Game 42, Mariners at Giants – The Weirdest Meaningful Series
Ljay Newsome vs. Logan Webb, 6:45pm
Thanks to the utter collapse of two of the game’s best teams coming into 2020 (the Yankees and Astros) along with the continued bifurcation of the league into good and rrrreal bad (looking at you, Texas), the M’s are kind of in a playoff hunt. It’s September, there are 18 games left, and the M’s head out on the road a couple of games behind the Astros for 2nd place in the west, and a few back of the Yankees for one of the wild card spots. The Yankees AND Astros are trailing as I write this, too.
The M’s have won 6 straight and are on quite a good run, but it’s so hard to figure out how to interpret that given the M’s schedule. The M’s are coming off a sweep of the Rangers, who are by winning percentage the worst team in MLB. They started their streak against the Angels, who have more talent than the Rangers, but are mired at 17-25. They haven’t fared as well against the better teams in the league, but then again, it’s 2020: they don’t have to FACE the likes of the Twins/White Sox/Rays/Indians. This season makes no sense, so of course the M’s have a shot.
If there’s one team that can understand the weird psychological conundrum of thinking they had a good shot to pick #1 overall and then quickly shifting to daydreaming about 1st round playoff pitching match-ups, it’s the Giants. The Mariners had the 2nd worst projected record in the AL, just a game or two back of the Orioles. Meanwhile, San Francisco had the 2nd worst projection in the NL, just fractionally ahead of the Marlins. Both the Marlins and Giants enter play tonight with .500 records, plenty good enough to be in the hunt for a wildcard in the new “everyone’s invited” playoff format of 8 teams per league making the first round.
Thus, we get what seemed like a sick joke in July, and perhaps even a couple of weeks ago: a September series between the M’s and Giants with playoff implications for both teams. I’ll be honest: I’m not sure how the M’s are in this spot, and I worry that we’re overreacting to the M’s swatting away a tanking Rangers team. I worry the M’s could fade in the late-September series against Houston and Oakland. But if there’s one thing 2020 has taught us, it’s that you don’t really need to be good to be in a position like this. You just have to convert winning chances.
The Rangers don’t because they essentially don’t have any, not with a line-up that can’t hit. The Yankees have all kinds of winning chances, and seem to be inventing more baroque, bizarre ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, kind of like their cross-town rivals, the Mets (watching the two teams play was like a bizarre grand guignol version of the game, with games ending on a wild pitch, a HR, a single, and the Yanks blowing a late lead with three runs hit off of their best set-up man). The M’s, despite a patched-together bullpen, have *mostly* kept things together, save that awful 8 run final inning in the first game of a double-header in San Diego.
Their bullpen isn’t great, but it’s figuring things out, and their rotation has been good enough to keep them in games. Now, it’s been good enough against bad teams. Marco Gonzales aside, I’m less sure about the other starters. This will be an interesting test for Newsome, who may be the only starter who HASN’T had a cupcake schedule for a while. He’s only faced the Dodgers and Padres, the two teams outpacing the Giants in the NL West. But the Giants boast a very good offense; they rank 5th in baseball behind, among others, the aforementioned Dodgers and Padres. They’re led by the breakout star Mike Yastrzemski, whose 2.4 fWAR are 2nd in baseball behind Fernando Tatis, Jr. down the road in San Diego. They’re also getting a career year from Donovan Solano, the ex-Marlin, who’s pairing solid bat-to-ball skill with newfound gap power, and a huge bounce-back year from 1B Brandon Belt, who’s power stroke is back.
Like the M’s, though, their pitching is a bit hit and miss. Tonight’s starter, Logan Webb, is another guy like Kolby Allard with solid overall batting-against numbers, but a mediocre ERA thanks to trouble stranding runners and some control issues. He’s a righty (unlike Allard) with a low-3/4 arm slot, and throws a very heavy, sinking four-seamer, a sinker that he’ll mix in against righties, a change, and a curve (and a very rare slider). The change-up is the outpitch, a pitch with drop and some armside run, a pitch that makes the rest of his arsenal better. It’s also a pitch that’s most effective against lefties.
Webb’s been very tough on lefties, but with a curve that’s not great and 93 MPH fastballs that really aren’t designed to be swing-and-miss pitches, he’s a bit lost against righties. He’s managed a decent K rate against them, and he’ll definitely throw change-ups to righties, too. But it’s simply not the weapon that it is against righties. Against lefties, that change helps him post absurdly high ground ball rates. But his GB% plummets against righties – it’s still high-ish, or a bit above average, but he’s not a ground ball specialist against same-handed batters.
The template here is pretty clear – get some righties in the line-up and look for sinking fastballs, and hit them hard.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Moore, 2B
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: France, DH
6: Marmolejos, RF
7: White, 1B
8: Torrens, C
9: Long, LF
SP: Newsome
Evan White’s K rate has fallen below 40% and he’s hitting over .300 after the odd, made-up All Star break. His SLG% has dropped though, and I hope he’s not trading off power for contact, akin to what JP Crawford seems to have done. White’s always going to be an odd duck, and I’m not sure he’ll ever be a big power threat. He simply had to make more contact, and he’s doing that. But the offensive demands of the 1B position are high, and I just hope he’s able to continue to refine his approach.
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11 Responses to “Game 42, Mariners at Giants – The Weirdest Meaningful Series”
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Hard to imagine Seattle getting in, but it’s easy to imagine fans going ballistic once they realize that neither Kelenic nor Gilbert will be promoted before next year.
Game is free on MLB tonight.
So much for tanking for Kumar, I guess?
Pythag says it’s a little bit of a mirage, but why can’t the M’s get lucky or some nice surprises or development for once? Plus the season’s not over yet…
The tough part of making a good team still lies ahead, but it would be cool if the M’s came out of 2020 with a .500-ish record (just not “oh, God” like the first part of the season). It would make signing players to fill in some obvious holes for the 2021 roster more sensible, without having to mortgage the future. Any playoff time would be a bonus.
And I’m not about to be ballistic if Kelenic or Gilbert don’t show up- a playoff run is a hell of a place to put a rookie with no experience above AA except for this extended intrasquad set of pseudo-games this year.
Oh, hey, patched-together bullpen reminds you they’re still a thing.
Sigh. Yeah.
So much for tanking for Kumar, I guess?
Heh.
The tough part of making a good team still lies ahead, but it would be cool if the M’s came out of 2020 with a .500-ish record (just not “oh, God” like the first part of the season). It would make signing players to fill in some obvious holes for the 2021 roster more sensible, without having to mortgage the future. Any playoff time would be a bonus.
Very similar situation the White Sox were in last offseason. If postseason berths look realistic immediately, perhaps extreme overpays wouldn’t be necessary to attract free agents? The fun, family-like ambience they’ve created can’t hurt, either.
And I’m not about to be ballistic if Kelenic or Gilbert don’t show up- a playoff run is a hell of a place to put a rookie with no experience above AA except for this extended intrasquad set of pseudo-games this year.
Even the pressure of producing down the stretch to get there would be a lot to ask. Too much, in my opinion.
I don’t quite get the “well, it’s not a big deal because it’s easy to put a bullpen together” I’ve seen floated around as an explanation for why the M’s having a bad bullpen isn’t a big deal.
Well, if it’s easy, then why can’t you, well, you know, do it? It would seem to me if it’s a truly easy way to make your team better, why not do it?
Maybe it’s not as easy as it seems…
^It wasn’t seen as a priority because they weren’t expecting to contend and had a number of young relievers projected to debut between 2020-2021. Still, they spent a little on Edwards and Hirano.
Hopefully it will be seen as a priority this coming offseason.
Houston lost game 2. Nice to have a little excitement in September.
It wasn’t seen as a priority because they weren’t expecting to contend
I literally do not get this unless you are deliberately trying to tank ala Astros. If it’s easy to do, why not do it? It’s easier to turn a 75 win team into an 85 win team than a 65 win team into a 85 win team- so why not start the process as soon as possible?
I’m of the opinion that if you can do easy enough moves to make your team watchable (75 wins) instead of terrible (65) and you’re not throwing away the farm system… just do it. Even if your 75 win team isn’t likely to contend, do it because it makes the team watchable and easier to move the needle to the next phase, and if you’re just lucky and contend early (luck or lucky on talent), you need much less luck to go from 75 true talent to 85 wins (luck assisted) than from 65 wins.
That being said, I get the Astros/Marlins-style “blow it all up and suck for draft picks” idea. That’s when you don’t really care.
But I’m of the “always compete” mindset of one of this city’s other sports teams.
Still, they spent a little on Edwards and Hirano.
I’m not convinced it was enough- if you’re dumpster diving for Rockies rejects like Bryan Shaw at the end of summer camp you probably could and should have done more to add talent. I’d like to see if Graveman could work out in relief though.
But anyways, this team IS more watchable lately. Though, argh, bullpen again.
I literally do not get this unless you are deliberately trying to tank ala Astros. If it’s easy to do, why not do it? It’s easier to turn a 75 win team into an 85 win team than a 65 win team into a 85 win team- so why not start the process as soon as possible?
Because bullpens are volatile. Take a good look at the 2019 Rockies if you need a case study.
The bullpen they projected wasn’t as bad as we’ve seen, either. Austin Adams was dominant last season. Brennan was excellent before the injury and was expected to be ready opening-day. Tuivailala was excellent once he returned from the IL. Even Erik Swanson looked good in a small sample size. They also had Warren who deserved a look, Gerber and Fletcher who were just about ready for a promotion (and have been promoted), and two more Rule-5 eligible players, Delaplane and Mills, who would have been up in September in a normal year.
They didn’t know Tui wasn’t going to rebound well from an apparent late injury and this pandemic of course threw everything off. Hirano caught the virus and only recently made it back and has had mixed results, Edwards and Brennan hit the IL almost immediately … nearly everything that could go wrong, has gone wrong.
But again, the projected bullpen didn’t look like the train wreck we’ve seen. It really didn’t make sense to go out and spend on a number of relievers, who typically don’t get more than 2 year deals anyway, when they were presumably a year or two out and had a number of young arms to take a look at. Rebuilding teams assess what they have before they spend. Why would Seattle be any different?
I’m of the opinion that if you can do easy enough moves to make your team watchable (75 wins) instead of terrible (65) and you’re not throwing away the farm system… just do it. Even if your 75 win team isn’t likely to contend, do it because it makes the team watchable and easier to move the needle to the next phase, and if you’re just lucky and contend early (luck or lucky on talent), you need much less luck to go from 75 true talent to 85 wins (luck assisted) than from 65 wins.
I don’t disagree. That’s been a huge part of my argument to start spending this coming offseason.
Last year I argued that Grandal would be a great addition to help mentor a young pitching staff. That would have freed up Nola to be used in the infield. But the bigger need was starting pitching and I was perfectly okay with Walker and Graveman, so I didn’t complain much. I wasn’t anticipating significant spending, but I’m expecting at least a little more this offseason. There’s little question they’ve taken a step forward.
A lot will depend on postseason expansion, the allotted budget, and the effectiveness of the development in the player pool. The status of Murphy and Haniger will be significant as well. But I don’t know how they can not afford to start tightening up, and it’s not like they have to spend a ton to do that. We could witness a buyer’s market if other clubs are under tighter restrictions and there are going to be affordable upgrades, regardless.