Game 8, Mariners at Twins
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Michael Pineda, 11:10am
Like you, I have no idea why this three-game series has an odd, Friday-shaped hole in it, but it does. That’s unfortunate, because I’m still at the stage of the season where I want to watch the M’s pretty much every day, and also because we have to stew on Marco Gonzales’ second-straight disaster of a start for a longer-than-usual time. It’s a great thing about baseball – if your team suffers an agonizing loss, or a starter looks lost, or the umpires blew a big call, more baseball comes along in a few hours and wipes it all away. There’s so much baseball, you simply can’t get hung up on one game.
But in the absence of Friday baseball, I’m going to get hung up on one game. After two starts, Gonzales has yielded 5 HRs and 5 walks – he gave up just 8 and 7, respectively, all of last year. Something is really off, as every one of his pitches is getting hit hard. It seems likely that his once-exceptional command is just a bit off, but it’s surprisingly hard to find evidence of that in part because it’s hard to really define what we mean by command. As Michael Ajeto explained over at LL, Gonzales has been elite in keeping his pitches in the edge of the strike zone and out of the middle. He was one of the best in baseball at that last year, and, predictably, he’s not in the top 10 now. But that said, he’s still above average – it’s not a complete collapse, it’s just what looks like some early-season jitters.
The problem isn’t that Gonzales is throwing center-cut meatballs (he’s actually thrown fewer of them this year) and missing his spots. The problem is that hitting his spots isn’t helping. Last year, when he hit the edge of the zone, batters put up a .201 wOBA. This year, in a tiny sample of course, it’s up at .571. You can hope that this is just noise, and that he’ll look like himself in his next start. But there’s not really a contingency plan if he doesn’t. With James Paxton now headed for TJ surgery, the M’s depth is pretty much already deployed. Sure, bring Nick Margevicius out of the pen or what have you, but I’m not convinced they can get a whole year out of some of the guys they have in there now, especially if Justin Dunn’s control keeps leaving him.
This has been the concern: that Gonzales throwing 88 has less margin for error than Gonzales throwing 91-92, and while his command was razor sharp last year, it wasn’t pinpoint in 2019, so it may not be as repeatable as we’d like. Moreover, there’s just not a clear roadmap to improvement. Ajeto suggests tunneling his four-seam and curve and throwing a lot fewer cutters. That’s probably a good place to start; the cutter’s been annihilated thus far. But I’m not sure that Gonzales can survive throwing elevated 88 mph fastballs in 2021, even if the ball’s *slightly* dampened from last year’s super ball.
Today, the M’s face old friend Michael Pineda, who came back from TJ surgery a few years ago and has been a pretty effective starter for Minnesota when he’s healthy. He’s not throwing in the mid 90s anymore, but his slider remains a formidable pitch. He only made 5 starts last year, but in them, batters *slugged* .119 off of that slider – the one Dave Niehaus so memorably called “diabolical” years and years ago. This year, it’s more of the same. When he’s on, that slider works, and he’s a very effective starter. Even when it’s less good, like 2018, he’s more of a middle of the rotation guy. It’s been a very strange, very stop-and-start career for Pineda, but he’s been effective, when healthy, since his first game with the M’s a decade ago.
1: Haniger, RF
2: France, DH
3: Seager, 3B
4: Marmolejos, 1B
5: Torrens, C
6: Moore, 2B
7: Trammell, CF
8: Haggerty, LF
9: Crawford, SS
SP: Kikuchi
I don’t see how they can get by without bringing in another starter. Regardless of how Gonzales pitches, getting even 5 innings consistently (which isn’t enough) from Marge, Newsome, and Dunn seems like an enormous stretch, and taxing the relievers early isn’t a great recipe for success no matter how you define success.
That said, I’m looking forward to seeing Kikuchi pitch while I daydream and speculate over what the next Austin Nola-esque trade might look like.
Anyone else notice that Cruz is strong?
Anyone else actually watching the game?
Paying attention, but it’s on radio.
Also, a thin starting staff that DiPoto asserted is better than it actually is, a marginal bullpen, and a bad offense isn’t exactly disproving the concept that while DiPoto is certainly better than Bavasi and Zduriencik (which isn’t exactly a high bar, but OK), the point is some of these decisions you make need to actually work for you to be a GOOD GM instead of some guy among the 15-20 or so “meh” GMs.
I’m hoping I’m wrong feeling this, because God, yet another org reset is depressing if possibly inevitable, but at some point the record is the record.
And nice to see some jacks though. One hopes the offense heats up as the weather does.
We can expect the unexpected with Dipoto. That leaves room for hope. Though the offseason was disappointing (for me, anyway), he could change everything at the deadline and put them in a better position to add in the coming offseason.
Or not. One game at a time for now.
Not a bad start for Kikuchi. Command wasn’t stellar, but held them to 2 runs and struck out 6.
Torrens should have been able to block that wild pitch, but Montero has been all over the place.
Tied game.
France went 0-5, but Seattle pulled off the win. There were a couple of firsts as well. Solid win.
I’ll take it, though .500 with as many miserable blowouts as this doesn’t seem sustainable.
Play better, Mariners. Like today.
I’m ready for an ljay start or two. Of course, Gilbert is coming in a month….