Game 24, Mariners at Astros
Marco Gonzales vs. Cristian Javier, 5:10pm
The M’s have lost back to back games for the first time since April 5th/6th, and have their work cut out for them in today’s game against Houston and righty slider specialist, Cristian Javier. Yesterday’s game felt like it could get away from them at any point, especially after the Astros scored twice in the first, but Justus Sheffield held them around, and the bullpen was again pretty solid. It’s just that the bats couldn’t get going against Jose Urquidy or the Astros ‘pen, and hey, that’ll happen some days.
Cristian Javier signed for $10,000 out of the DR years ago, but got on prospect radar by…well, pitching really well at every stop. In his minor league career, he tossed 377 innings, giving up just 225 hits and striking out *512*. He’s not overpowering; he averages 92-93 with his four-seam fastball, but it pairs well with a sweeping, frisbee slider. He has a slow curve and a change-up, but he doesn’t really use either one very much. For a long time, this appeared to limit his ceiling, and while he cracked the Astros’ top 10 prospect lists, a lot of people have pegged him for a bullpen role long-term. Fastball/slider relievers are common. Fastball/slider starters who don’t throw Randy Johnson-fast are less so.
But since joining the rotation in 2020, he’s been great. His career spans less than 70 innings, but he’s striking out more than a batter an inning, and has an RA9/ERA right at 3. He’s been great in two starts this year, with his slider wreaking havoc on opposing batters. I think this is what people hope Justus Sheffield can one day do consistently, and Sheffield can look like a great starter at times. Sliders tend to have large platoon splits, and one that moves so horizontally should have fairly extreme splits. On paper, it looks a lot like ex-M’s reliever Carson Smith’s (an old USSM favorite), as it’s thrown from a lower arm slot. But that approach got Smith boxed in to a set-up role, but it hasn’t limited Javier. Why?
Well, I think this is the pitch of the year around this blog, but I think it’s because Javier throws one of those Freddy Peralta fastballs. I mentioned this when the M’s faced Peralta in the spring, and how it looks like Josh Hader’s, and how Justin Dunn’s is kiiiinda similar if you squint. Well, Javier’s is very similar. Despite releasing the pitch at about 5.5′ off the ground, it *moves* like an over-the-top, backspinning four seamer with *less* armside run than average and more vertical movement. At his arm slot, you’d expect a pitch that looks like…well, like Justus Sheffield’s sinker, or maybe his old four-seam. There’s nothing wrong with those pitches, as they have a lot more armside run. But the ability to shut *off* that run and replace it with rise on the fourseam, and then use the more normal break (both horizontally and vertically) on the slider is pretty cool. It means his slider has about 9″ of difference in break than his fastball, and 10″ different horizontally. This is similar to Peralta and Dunn, and it helps explain why he isn’t getting punished by left-handed bats. Not *all* sliders are fun to hit for opposite-handed bats.
And like Jose Urquidy and many Astros starters this year, Javier is generating next to no ground balls. His BABIP doesn’t look like it this year, but his career BABIP is now at .214. Again, that’s kind of scary in a juiced baseball environment, but if the ball isn’t quite as bouncy this year, it could work. The Astros’ group of Urquidy, Javier, Greinke, and Odorizzi are among baseball’s most grounder-averse rotations in the game. I wonder if they give Lance McCullers the stink eye after he gets another flurry of worm burners.
1: Haniger, RF
2: France, 2B
3: Seager, 3B
4: Lewis, DH
5: Marmolejos, 1B
6: Haggerty, LF
7: Trammell, CF
8: Murphy, C
9: Crawford, SS
SP: Gonzales
Evan White gets a day off. Despite reducing his K rate, he’s simply not hitting enough. His last extra base hit came on the 16th, 35 PAs ago. JP Crawford’s exit velocity now ranks 138 out of 140 qualified hitters.
Mariner offense. Where are you?
I’ve read this book before. Being the “comeback kids” is not sustainable.
Great effort by the pitching, but that was brutal to watch.
Call me naïve, but I can’t see Jerry sitting on his hands at the deadline. He has to get a jump on the offseason and start addressing this offense.
The thing is, I see Trader Jerry getting a jump on the offseason by trading Mitch Haniger in June or so once the M’s finish the fade out of the race they seem to be commencing. The logic is pretty inexorable: you have your Kelenic/Lewis/Trammell OF with Juliooooo lurking, France bouncing between DH, 3B and 2B, and you can probably haul in some reasonable prospects for Haniger (IDK, maybe they’d toss in a fungible reliever to sweeten the pot). It’s a pretty classic “year early rather than a year late” move, Haniger’s not going to cost anyone a lot of salary so ANYONE can pay him if they trade for him.
And that way, the M’s would have some bodies they can throw at the 1B/IF/C maw of zero offense, or the maw of the rotation past Marco and Flexen. If it worked out as well as last year’s deal for Nola, etc… well…
I’m not a metric guy, as you know, I’m more of a fundamentals guy. My buddies made fun of me when I shouted, “You’re not chopping wood!” when Boonie made those Charlie Brown swings at hittable pitches. BB was always going for the fences and then at 3-2 he’d shorten up ?. Evan White, etc.!! BASE HITS. MEET THE BALL.
The thing is, I see Trader Jerry getting a jump on the offseason by trading Mitch Haniger in June or so once the M’s finish the fade out of the race they seem to be commencing.
June or July, but yeah, he’s the obvious trade chip.
That’s not necessarily a terrible idea. If he can nab players that are MLB-ready, or close, like he did with Nola…
Yeah, the thing is that a talent dump trade (make the 2021 team worse, improve later) is more likely to leave the team in a low 70’s win ditch to dig out of, and we’re probably in for another year of “figure it all out” with the new players for 2022 before actual contention happens in 2023.
I also can’t see Seager coming back for another year of this seemingly endless rebuild unless the M’s back the truck up, which adds another hole for the 2022 roster. Maybe France ends up at 3rd, I guess, but it’s getting really old to not see the payoff with talent, as Marc said at the beginning of the year.
The team looks better than late 2019 for sure but “better” isn’t “good enough”, you know?
I don’t disagree with any of that. But the fact that Jerry targeted MLB-ready players (plus Trammell) in the Nola deal leads me to believe he would want the same in a return from a Haniger swap.
That said, I would argue there is/will be a need for two SPs, a second baseman, shortstop, and maybe a stopgap outfielder/DH. France should probably start at 1B until White proves he can hit.
Tall order to contend in 2022, but not completely out of the question, especially if they retain Seager and Graveman (assuming they continue to produce, if course).