2021 Tacoma Rainiers Preview
It is opening day in Tacoma! I think it might also be the first time I’ve had a preview align with a player’s birthday? I was initially thinking about framing it in terms of “wow, you could either see a lot of further off prospects in Everett or some elite near-term contributors in Tacoma!,” but it would be naïve to suggest that you could plan on the best Rainiers being there for anything longer than a month. Besides, does freeway construction ever end in that stretch of I-5?
Thanks for sticking with me through more than ten thousand, madness-inducing previews cobbled together over five days. We have a largely speculative rotation from my end (sometimes I guess right, mostly not), the player I conceive of as least wanting to arm wrestle, an opportunity to casually reference cryptids, imported double play partners, and less poetry than one might think given the name of one outfielder, but few egregious puns (some of them multilingual) nonetheless.
Rotation:
RHP Logan Gilbert, RHP Taylor Guerrieri, RHP Brady Lail, RHP Paul Sewald, RHP Jimmy Yacabonis
Our top three minor league right-handers might grade out closer than we think, but to speak to Gilbert’s particular advantages (beyond the earlier debut), he’s longer in the wingspan, thus and his FB sneaks up faster than velocity suggests. Additionally, he’s a hard worker and advanced in his preparation, which helped him tinker with both the change-up and the slider at the alternate site. He already had the low-mid-90s heater and the big curveball as a starting point, so he’s as good to go as you could hope from a starter. He merely needs to build up innings.
Sewald is instead the Rainiers Opening Day Starter because that’s not a relevant distinction in minor league baseball. He debuted for the Mets as a 27-year-old and was used entirely as a reliever by them. If you want starts, you have to go back to his senior year at San Diego. An added curiosity is that in the pros, he’s been all but a two-pitch guy, utilizing a low 90s fastball two-thirds of the time and a low-80s slider the remainder. I don’t know what the Mariners saw in him that made them say “starter,” but they’re known for looking at players creatively.
All of these dudes except Gilbert are imports, in fact, and Yacabonis moved over from the Orioles organization. Yac did not start while at St. Joseph’s and transitioned into the role as a pro in 2018 when he made twenty-one for Norfolk and seven more for the Birds. His pitch selection isn’t actually all that different from Sewald, though the velocity is better and the command, worse. The weird bit in the profile is that FanGraphs claims (?) that he threw a change-up a quarter of the time this past year. The radar gun checks out, but otherwise…?
Guerrieri is the most decorated of the bunch as a first-round prep draftee by the Rays. After TJ surgery and a drug of abuse suspension en route, he debuted as a waiver pick for Toronto before signing with a rebuilding Rangers squad. Somehow, he didn’t get any innings last year in spite of that. Since surgery, his velocity has been more in the 92-93 mph range. He’s different from the other guys in that he’s slightly more willing to throw a change-up and his go-to breaker is a curveball. He knows bench coach Jared Sandberg from his days with Tampa. Maybe there’s something there.
News Wednesday afternoon was that to help replenish depth in triple-A, the Mariners signed former Angels All-Star Hector Santiago. The New Jersey left-hander had been with the Tigers last year, but asked for his release halfway through the season after not making the squad. He’s had his command get away from him the last two seasons in the big leagues, which only exacerbates the long-standing home run problem. He’s been around 91-92 mph with his fastball and tends to go to his change-up before his slider.
If the Rainiers are going to six men in the rotation, my guess on the sixth (outside of Swanson, not presently on the roster) would be Lail, who started in the Yankees’ system from 2013 through 2017. Like Sewald, Lail tends to be around 90-92 mph with his fastball. He was mostly a FB / change-up guy in New York and used a more varied approach in Seattle to surprisingly similar effects. The MiLB.com split tool is somewhat borked at the moment, but it suggests some reverse splits as a result of said change-up reliance.
Bullpen:
RHP JT Chargois, RHP Ryan Dull, RHP Vinny Nittoli, RHP Yohan Ramirez, RHP Jaime Schultz, RHP Domingo Tapia
Ramirez has starting experience and might fit there too if they want to get him exposure and practice working his stuff out. I had to double-take at his 2.61 ERA from last year, forgetting that he had both an abnormally high strand rate and an abnormally low BABIP. He didn’t need to be much more than a fastball-slider guy in relief, but he desperately needs to work on his command and feel for pitches so starting him would be a good developmental idea if you have the space for it. Today is his birthday.
Schultz is a known short king, throwing 95 mph despite being under six feet tall. He likewise has some starting experience in the minors, mostly years back, and could get stretched out if the need arises. He does not have either command or remaining option years. Additionally, a few years where I was able to select splits (this has been a problem for years now, folks) suggested some reverse platoon. He’s neat and all yet I see a few things working against him contributing in the bullpen, and he suffered an oblique injury late in spring training.
Chargois is not a short king but he may also get the short shrift for the same option-deficient reasons. He was drafted by the Twins, but more recently saw time with the Dodgers. The wacky thing is that he was a first baseman at Rice, at least initially. One doesn’t think of that being a position where you want a strong arm, so it was surprising when he was in the mid-to-high 90s as a reliever. He’s mostly a two-pitch guy, fastball and slider, with erratic feel for his pitches.
Already seeing some time as an injury replacement is Domingo Tapia, now in his fourth org but with plenty of option years. His first two innings with Seattle were not easy like Sunday morning and he allowed two hits in each of them, but neither did he crash into a wall and allow baserunner to pile up into runs. He mostly attacks with a near-100 mph fastball and might show you a mid-80s slider now and then. You bet he has command issues!
The other MLB experience guy brought in with Santiago was Ryan Dull, whom you may remember from his one really good year with the A’s. That season, he had uncanny command over everything and managed to pass 1 WAR as a reliever despite only having a 91-mph heater and a slider. He has not been quite as sharp since and has changed time zones often as various MLB organizations have needed to swap around the last arm in their bullpen or the fortieth man on their roster.
Nittoli comes back to us after four years away in St. Paul, the Toronto organization, the Diamondbacks, and whatever mystery zone we might call the last fourteen-odd months. Did I know that he was a two-way guy and a competent hitter for Xavier? Did I forget to mention it? Did I know he started a few games for St. Paul? Anyway, what I remember was that he had the best strikeout numbers of his career in 2016 before getting a surprise release that angered me at the time. His command looks like it’s improved since he last was a Mariner.
Catchers:
Jose Godoy, Cal Raleigh
Raleigh and Gilbert have been a pairing in their minor league careers and so it’s not surprising to see them back at it. A big kid on his own, Raleigh has worked physically to keep in shape and make the most of his arm strength, notching 36% caught stealing his last season in Modesto. He also works to make himself an asset through his communication and leadership with the pitching staff. However, his best tool is likely the power from the left side. They didn’t start the Beef Boy Bombs tradition in Modesto for nothing, even if the other founding Beef Boy is playing in Arkansas still.
Godoy is another catcher coming to us from the Cardinals system and remains young enough to be kind of interesting at twenty-six. Through his tenure in the low minors, he consistently hit 40% or more in caught stealing, which is rarer than you might think, but his passed ball rate is higher than you’d want from a part-timer. Since he’s a hit-for-contact guy with more modest, doubles-oriented power, I don’t see him wrestling playing time away from Raleigh. I would not want to attempt to wrestle much of anything away from Raleigh.
Infielders:
IF Jack Mayfield, IF Jack Reinheimer, 1B Sam Travis, IF Donovan Walton, 1B/3B Jantzen Witte
Walton is likely the most familiar name on this list, both on recency and as being representative of that phase of drafting senior shortstops who outperform their tools. Is it a phase if we’re not sure it’s over? Walton has the added boon of batting from the left side, unique in this group. He had a good 2019 in Arkansas, batting .300/.390/.427, which, again, is only more admirable given the park. He also was not at a significant disadvantage against left-handers, which is heartening. If we have issues on the infield and he’s batting better than the other guy, I’d expect him to get the call.
The infield has a legit chance for double plays that turn on Jacks, but then we already had a team that was mostly Ryans and Tylers a few years ago. Reinheimer departed ages ago in a trade that brought your Seattle Mariners back Vidal Nuno and Mark Trumbo. As a proficient shortstop, he subsequently was snagged off waivers four times in six magical months from 2018 to early 2019. He played 21 games for the Mets after the first such selection, but you can tell me just about anything is happening to the Mets and I would believe you. He’s long been a light hitter whose slugging just edges out his OBP. Mayfield is now in his fourth organization after making it as an NDFA with the Astros. He’s hit better in the minors, but was picked up on waivers the same day as Baker Mayfield publicly avowed a belief in UFOs and Bigfoot, and thus was not the biggest Mayfield in the news even on that offseason day.
At the corners, we have minor league free agents. Sam Travis is from Chicago and went to college in Indiana, despite what you might associate with his name. From 2017 to 2019, he saw games for the Red Sox at first, left, and DH. For a time, he was a top-ten prospect for them, but then there was an ACL injury and despite coming to the plate with no good intentions, he’s only topped out in the .430 slugging range in the high minors, hardly ideal for his defensive limitations. He’s twenty-seven presently, still young enough to maybe tap into something more.
On the other side of the horn, we have Witte, whose background is what Travis’ name would suggest: Arlington born and an attendee of Texas Christian University. They played together at a few levels of Boston’s system. Whereas Travis’ dingers were never as plentiful as anticipated (he’s never hit double-digits), Witte has hit twelve twice. As for other peculiarities, I read where he was a tennis star as a kid? That sounds like more a Jantzen Witte thing to do. I don’t know what to make of signing two corner infielders from the Boston system who never developed power, but it almost asks for a narrative to be crafted.
Outfielders:
CF Braden Bishop, COF Eric Filia, CF Jarred Kelenic, CF Luis Liberato, COF Dillon Thomas
The Mather stuff got Kelenic written about quite a lot, so I’m not sure what more there is to say. He’s enormously talented and confident, yet even among the best prep prospects, arriving with fewer than 200 minor league games is uncommon. They said they wanted him to work on hitting left-handed pitching and it’s true that there’s a split there (.240/.345/.440 vs. .333/.413/.638 against right-handers). His alt site work was apparently to help focus on defense, but I don’t know that his raw speed pushes Lewis or Trammell from center anyway. Those blemishes aside, he has a chance to make a lot of tricky hitting look easy if he sticks to his gameplan.
Since left field is the more “open” roster spot, Bishop will likely take over in center instead. I’ve written him up many, many times now and the thrust of it has been that he’s a good hitter for average who can draw a walk, has negligible power, and it’s a waste that he’s as fast as he is yet scarcely makes himself known on the basepaths. I focus mostly on what I can see from my end to set up some veneer of objectivity, but Bishop also seems like a very good dude between his work on early onset Alzheimer’s and his willingness to put himself out there on issues of social justice.
The other center fielder on the roster is Liberato, whom we’d probably be talking about as the top glove internally if it wasn’t Bishop (Baseball America, after all this time, still likes him better). Liberato has played 100 or more games of regular season minor league ball all of twice, which is the main reason Joe Rizzo beats him out as the player most grateful to leave the California League. His first extended taste of the high minors came in a half season at Arkansas in 2019 when he hit .237/.292/.330. The difference in craft between double and triple-A and the rest is no joke.
Filia began the 2019 season once more on the restricted list due to his fondness for certain recreational substances legal here but still prohibited by his employing not-actually-a-monopoly. So he showed up late July, no big deal, and hit .331/.450/.488 the rest of the way. And then .301/.401/.359 over 45 games for the Estrellas in the Dominican. I’d like to see what he does with more time in triple-A West and also know whether they’re grooming him to be a hitting coach or intend to give him the Jaime Bubela / Mickey Lopez treatment and let him start a few big-league games for kicks.
I suppose anyone who knows my academic background might expect me to parlay a report about Dillon Thomas into references about Dylan Thomas, but alas, a year of remote teaching has fried me more than usual and one of the great joys of the poet, whisky legends aside, is how his vocabulary is fairly standard and yet his sentences are configured in such ways as you’ve never seen before. As for the player, he’s long been a bat guy and not much the defender, yet he’s only surpassed double-digit home runs once in affiliated ball. I could see him doing some silly things in the not-PCL.
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4 Responses to “2021 Tacoma Rainiers Preview”
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The Rainiers will get less interesting when Kelenic gets the call up, but on the other hand, he should be replaced by the utterly delightful Taylor Trammell, he of the .156 BA and 43% K Rate.
On the Filia front, if he gets off to a good start, I wonder if he’ll get some reps at 1B? From the winter league games I’ve watched he looked fine over there. And, actually pretty competent in the OF, for what that’s worth. But Evan White has more than struggled, and Marmo has really cooled off. And I think you can make a fair argument that Filia would probably be the best option to fill that role? (Cause it ain’t gonna be Albert Pujols.) As to the roster spot, it looks like they haven’t moved Delaplane to the 60 Day IL yet.
BTW, I love these previews! One of my favourite M’s annual traditions.
Great preview! Thanks for doing it!
I hadn’t really considered the idea of Filia supplanting White, partly because it’s hard for me to get a read on how they feel about him getting repeatedly suspended for the same fairly harmless thing, but I like the idea and would support it. My worry right now is that with White considered as essential as he is for the defense, we’re essentially recreating the circumstances that stalled out Mike Zunino’s development.