Game 36, Mariners at Dodgers – M’s Soon To Be Kelenecized
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Walker Buehler, 7:10pm
Yes, the M’s and Dodgers enter play tonight with identical 18-17 records, just as we assumed when the season started. That the M’s are in this position is nothing short of miraculous, given the fact that half of their everyday line-up is hitting below .160 and their rotation’s been hit by both opposing batters and injuries. For the Dodgers, this record is perhaps even more miraculous, given the talk about the club taking aim at the all-time wins-in-a-season record. The M’s are at 18-17 despite having the 21st-ranked pitching staff and the 27th-best position players. The Dodgers are at 18-17 despite having the best position players by WAR in MLB and the 5th-best staff. Baseball!
Despite racking up hits in Texas at a heretofore unfathomable clip (32 in 3 days!), the M’s lost the series. Apparently that was the trigger to do something they probably should’ve done before: finally decide to call up Jarred Kelenic. Now, he’s not up yet, but he’ll apparently play by this Thursday, meaning after this two-game set in LA. The M’s wanted to wait on Kelenic, they said, so that they could see him in the minors, and of course the MiLB season didn’t start until May, and they said they wanted to see him against left-handed pitching, and he destroyed the lefties AAA-West set before him. *Every* ridiculous statement about “development” was kind of insulting to hear, given that we all know he would’ve been up with the team last year if he’d signed a long-term deal. It was worse when the M’s decided the best developmental environment for Evan White, say, was MLB despite his bat looking…well, like it could use some exposure to AAA lefties. It’s all just kind of ridiculous.
Kelenic made it look too easy in his week in AAA (he’s starting tonight, so if you’re in the South Sound, go catch the Rainiers tonight, as it’s probably the last chance you’ve got to see him), and forced the team’s hand. He hit in every game, getting two hits in four games, and of course that season-opening 2 HR game. You can’t look at that, and then look at the bottom of the M’s line-up and say that you care about winning OR development. It is true that very few HS-drafted players have made the majors with so few minor league at-bats, but it is equally true that very few MLB teams have ever hit .210 *after a hot streak pulled them up from .201.* Also, there was a pandemic! We’re all dealing with some unprecedented stuff here. Bringing in a great hitter to a team that struggles with hitting doesn’t seem like it’s all that crazy.
So we’ll get Kelenic in a few days, but for now, the M’s have to deal with Walker Buehler. The hard-throwing righty always looks like a threat to become a 4-Cy Youngs in 6 years kind of ace, but it hasn’t quite happened yet. He’s had one of the better fastballs in the game, sitting around 96 with lots of spin, and he’s able to locate it, which has helped him post very low walk rates. In 2019, he gave up some HRs on the pitch, but had great results overall – kind of a Gerrit Cole situation. But last year, he didn’t yield a single one on his heater. That’s changed a bit this year, as hitters are all of the sudden hitting that heater quite well.
Part of it must be related to a velo drop: Buehler sat at nearly 97 last year, but is down to about 95 now. But part of it may be due to lefties figuring out how to attack him. Buehler’s been dominant against lefties since he came in the league, running reverse splits in fact. This year, they’ve snapped back hard, and lefties are hitting him well (while righties still struggle). He’s never had much of a change up, and targets lefties with the four-seam, a cutter at 91-92, and his big 12-6 curve. This year, lefties are hitting that fastball well. That’s meant a bit of a reversion in the other thing that’s made Buehler so tough: his career BABIP-against is .270, and he had a BABIP under .200 last year; that’s Justin Dunn-esque. But it was always driven in part by the fact that people put the ball in play comparatively weakly against him, but this year, all of his quality-of-contact measures have plummeted. He’s getting hit hard, and while BABIP is down overall and he plays in a decent park for pitchers, it’s something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: France, 2B
6: Torrens, C
7: Moore, LF
8: White, 1B
9: Kikuchi, SP
Tacoma walked off El Paso 3-2 last night on a single from Jack Reinheimer. It was a bullpen day for the R’s, so Jimmy Yacabonis started it, and Justin Grimm pitched the 9th/10th for the win. Kelenic had just one hit on the day, the slacker. Brady Lail’s on the hill for Tacoma tonight in the last game of the 6-game set.
Arkansas, like everyone not in the AAA-West, was off yesterday, but have already won today: they beat the Springfield Cardinals 9-2 behind two hits from four different Travs, including Jordan Cowan, who doubled and walked.
Everett starts a series with the Tri-City Dust Devils tonight – it’s opening night in Everett! 2019 draftee Tim Elliot starts, coming off a great relief outing that saw him go 3 2/3 IP, giving up just one run on one hit (a dinger) and striking out 8. That’s how to get noticed on an already-loaded staff.
Modesto starts a series at Rancho Cucamonga tonight with opening day starter Josias de los Santos on the hill.
Comments
12 Responses to “Game 36, Mariners at Dodgers – M’s Soon To Be Kelenecized”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
I like how the MiLB schedules are this year with 6 game series and everyone off Monday except AAA which is off on Wednesdays. Listened to a couple of R’s games on the phone while playing golf in the evening and caught the opener when Mr K. went yard twice and Raleigh hit a clutch two out, two run dinger to extend the game in extras. It is always hard to figure when to call guys up but M’s (former) upper management admitted the truth (and some ugliness) about Kelenic. Hope the guy is the second coming of Junior.(or Mike Trout)
Evan White is moving around far too much at the plate. He should try a Matt Olson approach
Great performance by Kikuchi. Now we need some rain.
R’s in extras – again
At this point I want for Evan White to try an approach, any approach, as long as it’s in Tacoma for a couple of months. I’m no fan of Marmolejos, who’d probably get more ABs if this happened, but yeesh. How many flashing red lights and alarm klaxons do you need on this guy’s career so far before you realize he needs to not be at the MLB level?
Also, I, for one, am shocked that Rafael Montero isn’t turning out to be an amazing reliever so far. Wait, no, except the opposite of that. Because it wouldn’t be a slow deflation of the team without some bullpen villains blowing games, I guess.
But at least Kikuchi got the bullpen through a hump. And Haniger is looking nice. A Haniger/Lewis/Kelenic OF actually doesn’t sound terrible.
It will be nice to see this bullpen eventually healthy and with Muñoz and Giles…and Sheffield and Dunn…and no Montero.
That leaves just 1B, 2B, SS, a SP, maybe another SP, Seager’s option getting picked up or an extension, and a lot of luck.
Postseason, here we come!
Getting a jump on the offseason seems like a wise idea.
SS? JP Crawford is perfectly cromulent. No, his bat isn’t amazing, but his D gives him legitimate value (unlike White, because SS D >>> 1B D). Baseball Reference and Fangraphs don’t agree on his WAR but they do agree that he’s not actively bad like White.
(Projection systems like Crawford WAAAAY more than Moore, and WAR likes him either a little more or a lot more, depending on where you go, which is like, duh, done more AND younger player, so indeed, fix 2B before SS. Moore’s a utility infielder on a good team.)
I mean, sure, if the opportunity came along to improve SS… I guess? But it’s way down on the list behind 1B, 2B, 3B and rotation depth + adding rotation quality.
Also, looks like we’ll see Logan Gilbert sooner rather than later.
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/could-mariners-top-pitching-prospect-logan-gilbert-also-be-called-up-this-weekend/
“But with Seattle’s schedule featuring just one day off in a stretch of 26 games, including playing the final 17 games in 17 days, it seems unlikely the Mariners can continue doing that successfully without destroying their bullpen. At some point, they need to bring in a real starting pitcher to fill at least one of those spots, if not both.
Of those three injured starters and swing pitcher Ljay Newsome, who was recently placed on the injured list with elbow inflammation, only Gonzales is likely to return this season.”
Anybody but me think Graveman should have been the relief pitcher in the bottom of the 7th with two on?
Seems like he’s being used in the traditional closer role now, which means that in the long run the Mariners will lose more games.
Short may not be as pressing as 2B, but the upcoming free agent class for second baseman isn’t promising. Some fans like the idea of moving JP to 2B and signing a known SS. I’m not one of them, I’d rather see him serve in a reserve role if not starting at SS, but Seattle might have to do some improvising, somehow.
Easy to look at Tampa’s stash of infielders and wonder if one might be available. The trade route is certainly a possibility. I just hope they don’t cheap out another year.
Yeah, I’d hope that they realize that some combination of Moore+Haggerty+White+Marmolejos covering 2B/1B/DH isn’t going to cut it if they’re actually serious about winning (until such time as White demonstrates he can hit MLB pitching by putting a hurt on in Tacoma).
Dylan Moore is a 200-300ish PA bench bat supersub based on what he’s done so far; if he wants to turn into Mark McLemore later in his career he can do it from there by earning the time through performance. None of the other guys belong on contending MLB clubs at the moment (and only White has a prayer of developing into a guy who belongs on a contender).
I can squint and see Ty France being acceptable at 3B or 1B but they realistically need to beef up the middle infield plus have either Seager or SOMEONE at 3B/1B (whichever one France isn’t at) for 2022.