Game 39, Indians at Mariners
Chris Flexen vs. Aaron Civale, 7:10pm
So, that could’ve gone better. I’m a Mariner fan, so I wasn’t expecting any kind of story-book game, with Logan Gilbert pitching a shut-out or Kelenic walking it off. But man, getting no-hit into the 8th? I’ll admit that at the time I found it darkly hilarious, but it’s obviously not a great sign, and I feel we’re back to that spot we were in a few years ago, where it seemed like we were on no-hit watch twice a month.
Gilbert sat in the mid 90s, didn’t walk anyone, and looked good at times. He did give up some hard contact, including a HR on both a fastball and a slider. He doesn’t spin any of his pitches all that much, which may be why he’s more of a pitch to (ideally weak) contact guy, but you can see the makings of a really good starting pitcher here. I thought his slow curve was an interesting pitch, with over 20 mph of separation from his FB. He didn’t throw it much in the game I saw in Tacoma – just a couple, as he stuck with his slider (which is itself kind of slurvey).
Kelenic, as I kind of intimated in yesterday’s post, didn’t really have an ideal match-up to start, and I think you can say the same thing again tonight. It was a real contrast between the more old school Gilbert, who threw his heater 60+% of the time, and the pitching-backwards, junkballing Plesac, but clearly, Plesac had the entire team confused, not just Kelenic.
So, what do I mean about the match-up tonight? Well, tonight’s starter, Aaron Civale, takes Zach Plesac’s approach and spreads it over six pitches. I think the best way to think of him is as Cleveland’s Marco Gonzales. Civale has below-average velo; he’ll sit 91 with his four-seam and sinker. He then adds a hard cutter at 87, a slider at 83, a curve in the high-70s, and a good split-change at 85. Combining both of his fastballs, he throws less than 40% straight pitches. To lefties, it’s a blizzard of cutters and changes, and to righties, it’s sliders and curves. No pitch really dominates, so he’s perhaps harder to guess correctly on than Plesac.
But where Plesac wanted you to put the breaking stuff in play, and used his fastball just to remind you that he had it, Civale sees plenty of balls in play on his fastball (though, his four-seamer has the highest whiff rate of any of his pitches), and gets some ground balls, despite solid rise on the pitch. He doesn’t have the swing rates on his secondaries (if you can call them that) to generate the kind of contact that Plesac does, but he still gets swings on his split and slider. The split’s produces loads of grounders, which has helped him top the 50% GB% mark.
But also like Gonzales, this whole approach depends on precision and confusion. There’s just not enough pure stuff to allow him to pitch well on a night he just doesn’t have it. He gets fewer strikeouts than average, again similar to Gonzales (and Plesac!). A straight 91 mph fastball is a problem if it’s not set up and placed well. Thus, after an eye-opening debut in 2019, Civale suffered a bit in 2020 (though he did log the 6th most innings of anyone in MLB), with 11 HRs allowed and just a ton of base hits thanks to a high BABIP. Now he’s striking out even fewer hitters, but he’s 5-0 with a sparkling ERA (and a merely good FIP) – he’s generated weaker than average contact, and despite the fact no one’s swinging and missing, he’s been great thus far.
Yes, he’s a junkballer, but why’s a low-velo righty not a great match-up for Kelenic? Civale’s actually posted reverse splits for his career, with a higher K rate against lefties AND a much lower HR rate. Civale’s slider, a pitch that he likes to throw to righties, has had the worst results of any pitch in his arsenal. He sticks with the slider-y, but harder cutter to lefties, and it’s just more effective across the board. For Kelenic, the key is to find a four-seamer and jump on it. That’s probably true for everyone in the line-up, but righties at least don’t have to fear the breaking stuff.
1: Kelenic, LF
2: Haniger, DH
3: Seager, 3B
4: Lewis, CF
5: Crawford, SS
6: Moore, 2B
7: Marmolejos, 1B
8: Torrens, C
9: Haggerty, RF
SP: Flexen
Evan White’s been placed on the 10-day IL with a hip injury suffered last night. That and his slow start was discussed in a press conference with Jerry Dipoto yesterday, and is summarized in Ryan Divish’s fascinating article here. That article also discusses the M’s low vaccination rate, and their near-100% rate in Tacoma. Promoted players who’ve been vaccinated get to skip some steps, including a 48-hour quarantine if they’ve flown commercial, so there’s a real incentive to get jabbed. That said, the big club has plenty of incentives, too, such as being able to leave the team hotel once the club reaches the 85% vaccinated threshold, and they haven’t worked yet.
Donovan Walton’s been recalled from Tacoma to take White’s spot in the active roster. To cover for the pitching promotions from Tacoma, the M’s signed veteran SP David Huff to a minor league deal, and one-time M’s prospect Tyler Herb. Huff goes to Tacoma, Herb to Arkansas.
The minor league affiliates went 4-0 last night, with the big stars all having great outings.
Tacoma took a tense, 5-5 game in the 7th in Salt Lake and made it into a laugher by scoring 10 in the 7th inning. New guy Taylor Trammell homered in the inning, and went 4-5 on the night. Cal Raleigh hit two doubles. Tonight, Darren McCaughan, recently called up from Arkansas, takes the hill.
Arkansas beat Springfield 3-1 behind 5 solid innings from Ian McKinney. The 26-year old lefty gave up no runs on just 1 hit (but 4 walks) and struck out 9. That’s now 18 Ks for McKinney in 10 IP. Someone’s looking to make it to Tacoma. Penn Murfee starts for the Travs tonight.
Everett demolished Tri-City 15-1, as the Dust Devils simply had zero command on the night. The AquaSox got those 15 runs on just 10 hits, as they also drew *12* walks. They also hit 3 dingers, punctuated by Julio Rodriguez’s 430 foot shot. Emerson Hancock went 2 2/3 IP, giving a run with 4 Ks, and then Bernie Martinez went 3 1/3 scoreless. He’s pitched 6 2/3 IP this year, yielding one run. Tonight, it’s George Kirby’s second start of the year.
Modesto and Rancho Cucamonga played a good old fashioned Cal League slugfest, with the Nuts coming out on top, 9-8. The big story was Noelvi Marte hitting two home runs, and going 3-4 with a walk on the night. CF Cade Marlowe continued his hot streak with a HR of his own. The GA native is now hitting .309/.388/.458 in his MiLB career, covering about 250 at bats. Taylor Dollard gets the ball for the Nuts in tonight’s game.
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5 Responses to “Game 39, Indians at Mariners”
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And now France goes to the IL with Jack Mayfield taking his place on the roster.
Hell of a first hit for Kelenic.
Hernandez is an embarrassment to baseball.
I am a bit of a “traditionalist”. I still hate the DH. However if tonight doesn’t convince you that we need a “Robo-Ump”.
I don’t want robot umpires. Tools that help umpires would be nice, and a few, including Hernandez, should be dismissed, but that’s about it.