Game 40, Indians at Mariners
Justus Sheffield vs. Triston McKenzie, 6:10pm
Sooo, maybe Jarred Kelenic doesn’t really have “bad match-ups” after all. Everyone has platoon splits, or a pitch arsenal, or tunnels, or usage that might be advantageous or disadvantageous to left-handed batters. All of that stuff can change the probabilities of a good night at the dish, and it’s helpful to think about in any M’s match-up. But here’s the thing: some players don’t care about that stuff because they sit outside of it. Not that they’ll never have platoon splits of their own; of course they will. But that you can’t apply what’s true in the main to players so far off at the end of the talent distribution. The rules still apply to them, but they become little nudges, mere suggestions. It’s two games in, and I pretty firmly believe that we can’t analyze the match-up problems he’ll face (if any) – he IS the match-up problem. What is the opposing starter going to do differently because he’s here?
Kelenic’s HR and 2 2B night was the coming out party we’ve all been looking forward to. It made us all forget about the night before, and think about the thousands of nights to come that he’ll play some role in. It’s really cool. Baseball can make you cynical, and has undoubtedly honed my cynicism. It’s nice for something to break through all of that.
Today, it’s Triston McKenzie’s turn to try and figure out Jarred Kelenic. The skinny right-hander’s a more traditional pitcher in that he pitches off of a straight, rising four-seam fastball, usually near the top of the zone. Like last night’s pitcher, it’s thrown with below-average velo. Also similar to Civale are the change and slider secondaries that are thrown quite firm – 86-87. They have the exact same speed, but break in opposite directions, but are thrown hard enough that it doesn’t really seem like whiffs are what he’s after. His slider and curve (much less break than Civale’s) are put in play less than 10% of the time he throws them. They’re there to get the hitter to wonder what’s coming next, and then to get called strikes or the occasional whiff when the batter’s already in the hole. It’s the opposite approach to Zach Plesac, I think, and it produces something like inverse results.
Not saying that they’re *better* necessarily, just completely opposite. If all I knew about McKenzie was the above, I might assume he was a low-strikeout pitcher like Civale (or Plesac). If he’s fastball-heavy, that shouldn’t lead to whiffs, and maybe it produces a Justin Dunn-style low BABIP? Instead, McKenzie is a strikeout machine, with 76 in his 57 big league innings. His BABIP really is low, so maybe he induces weak/weird contact with that rising fastball? Nooo, he’s the hardest-hit pitcher in MLB this year. By average exit velocity, by the percentage of contact that’s defined as hard-hit – however you want to look at it, he’s not succeeding by inducing Plesac-style weak contact. Success for McKenzie is a strikeout. If it’s in play, he’s just hoping it’s hit at someone.
Chris Flexen’s line last night was pretty good, but in an almost-unthinkable-in-2021 twist, he struck out nobody. After posting 21 Ks in his first four starts, covering 23 IP, he’s now struck a grand total of 2 batters in his last three starts (16 innings). The culprit seems to be his cutter, which looked like a swing-and-miss pitch, but has become merely a swing pitch. Batters swing at it nearly 60% of the time, and he’s able to keep it in the zone (and the middle of the zone) without paying too much of a price. But it’s functionally too similar to his fastball, which is ALSO put in play a lot, even despite a lower overall swing rate. I’m not sure what the remedy is, but he’s living dangerously by not being able to miss bats. It IS allowing him to post very low walk rates, and that was always the problem for him before figuring things out in South Korea, but we could use some more Ks. Maybe targeting the edges and off the plate areas with that cutter? Throwing more curves? This is not the biggest problem the M’s face, of course, and Flexen’s cutter being put in play isn’t that bad, as so many of them are ground balls. But it’s odd to see a pitcher look so different in May than he did in April.
1: Kelenic, LF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Lewis, CF
5: Marmolejos, 1B
6: Moore, 2B
7: Crawford, SS
8: Murphy, C
9: Walton, DH
SP: Sheffield
I know the M’s have been hit hard by injuries, but you bring up Donovan Walton to…uh…DH? Hmmm.
Tacoma lost at Salt Lake, 6-4. Darren McCaughan gave up 5 runs in 4, including HRs by Jo Adell and Anthony Bemboom. Dillon Thomas doubled for the R’s. Tonight, Hector Santiago takes the mound for the R’s. He’s another guy who could see time with the Mariners if the injury to Marco Gonzales persists or if there are further injuries. He’s also one of the only actual starting pitchers the R’s have.
Arkansas jumped out to a 7-2 lead and held on to beat Springfield 8-6. Penn Murfee got the win with 5 IP, and Keegan McGovern hit his second dinger of the year. Tonight, Devin Sweet takes on Domingo Robles of the Cardinals, a former Pirates prospect who pitched for West Virginia in 2018, its last year as a Pirates affiliate, and a year before Logan Gilbert and Jarred Kelenic would start their M’s career there.
Everett beat Tri-City 5-2 thanks to another HR from Julio Rodriguez, who had a slow first two games, and is now scaldingly hot in the high-A North (don’t call it the Northwest League). George Kirby was brilliant through 5 scoreless, striking out 8 *but* issuing the first walk of his professional career. He now actually has a K:BB ratio, and it is 37:1. Brandon Williamson starts tonight’s game.
Modesto easily rode out the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes by a score of 8-2. Taylor Dollard tossed 5 great innings, striking out 8, with no walks, 5 hits, and a run. Cade Marlowe homered and Noelvi Marte went 3 for 6. Victor Labrada, an international signing out of Cuba, started in CF in his first professional game for the M’s and went 2 for 3 with 2 walks. The 21-year old Labrada’s arrival moved Marlowe to LF in what’s probably going to be a very good defensive OF at the low-A level. Sam Carlson starts for Modesto tonight.
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Walton DHs, everyone wonders why, and it works. Baseball.
I thought he’d get 2B and Moore would slide to 1B. Whatever.
Anyone here?