Game 42 – Tigers at Mariners – The Underbelly of the AL
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Casey Mize, 7:10pm
With a win yesterday, the M’s took three of four from Cleveland, a team that’s probably better than they looked against Seattle. It’s a great accomplishment for a still-rebuilding M’s team to beat Shane Bieber to win a winnable series. I know: the Indians cannot hit, pretty much at all. You have to look out for one hitter in the line-up. But their pitching depth make them a threat, and after the roughest of starts, the M’s line-up made it hard for Cleveland’s starters to get comfortable. It’s a credit to them.
Remember in the season’s first week or two, we looked at the “clutch” stats for the M’s, and how they were #1 by a mile despite somewhat pedestrian overall numbers? Yeah, it’s still true. They’re hitting .205 with a .285 OBP, so their win-probability added isn’t top of the table anymore (though it’s still, perhaps shockingly, solidly in positive territory). But they’re in front by a mile in clutch, meaning how much better they hit than their OWN baseline stats in close/late situations. As I said in April, this doesn’t show a lot of reliability – teams that are high one month, or one year, don’t reliably repeat that performance – but it remains incredibly entertaining. Kyle Seager is hitting .232, but we don’t care, because it seems like each one of his hits has changed a game, or kick-started a rally. It’s no surprise that he’s the #1 batter in individual clutch hitting in MLB, and JP Crawford, whose hitting I have raked over the coals repeatedly in these pages, is 5th.
Today, the M’s host the Detroit Tigers for three games, and they’ll visit them in Michigan early next month. Even more than the poor-hitting Clevelanders, Detroit really is the soft underbelly of the American League. Somewhat like the M’s, they’re in a big rebuild that’s seen them stock up on college arms in the draft and overhaul their player development group to get more out of those arms. It’s a solid enough plan, and several top arms – including tonight’s starter – have graduated to the big leagues. It…it hasn’t helped.
Yet. No one here is freaking out because Logan Gilbert gave up some dingers in his debut, and I’m sure many Tigers fans are at least trying to remain calm as both Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize have encountered…resistance in their first 50-100 innings at the big league level. It hasn’t helped that their offense gives them essentially no margin for error. Detroit’s offense ranks dead last, as they strike out even more than the whiff-prone Mariners, but don’t walk as much and have significantly less power.
One of their best hitters, Akil Baddoo, is a great story, but when a Rule 5 guy with a K rate approaching 40% is your success story, it’s looking bleak. The fact that Baddoo was plucked from another system highlights just how barren the cupboard’s been for Detroit, and how much they’ve struggled to develop hitters. They have a chance now with #1 overall pick Spencer Torkelsen, but he’s a ways away and can’t do it all by himself. In the meantime, they’ve got to use retreads like Nomar Mazara, Robbie Grossman, and Jonathan Schoop along with late-period Miguel Cabrera while hoping their pitchers can keep them afloat. They’re like a mirror-image Baltimore Orioles, who sent away the likes of Manny Machado and just hoped that one day they could develop a pitcher. What’s terrifying for Detroit is that 1) it’s taken the Orioles years, and they’re still quite bad and 2) they’re currently better than Detroit.
Casey Mize was the #1 overall draft pick in 2018 out of Auburn, where he racked up 156 Ks to 16 walks in his draft year. In his first full year of pro ball, Mize pitched well, but his strikeout rate fell down markedly to 8-9 per 9IP. That’s good, it’s solid, but it’s not what you’d want from a #1 overall pitcher starting the year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. With still-low walk rates and a very good splitter, it didn’t slow his progression any – the FSL couldn’t touch him, and he encountered only sporadic resistence in AA. Without a minor league season, the Tigers called him up last year to make seven starts.
Unfortunately, the Casey Mize they got hasn’t looked like the guy they heard glowing reports on from the minors. Worse, that’s beginning to sound kind of familiar for Tigers fans. Casey Mize throws a four-seam fastball at 94-95, a hard slider at 88, that good split-change at 87, and a rare change in the low-80s. This is a deep, varied arsenal that should help him face lefties and righties alike, but to date that simply hasn’t happened: lefties eat him alive. The low walk rate in the minors hasn’t made the jump to MLB, as he’s walking about 10% of opposing hitters thus far. The strikeout rate fell when he moved to MLB (so far so good), and has dropped even more this year compared to his call-up year (not so good). At this point, his K% is in the 11th percentile in MLB, driven by an inability to miss bats. To top it all off, he’s had serious home run trouble.
This sounds a bit like the problems former Seattle U standout Tarik Skubal has had. He’d gone from intriguing enigma to minor league beast in the Tigers system, adding velo to the point he occasionally touched 100 from the left side. He was one of the minors biggest strikeout pitchers in 2019, and, like Mize, made his debut for Detroit last year as there was nothing much more to teach him at the Alternate Site. The K’s were always going to drop, but he kept them high-ish last year, with a K% over 27%. But it came at a cost, as batters hit him much harder than their minor league peers, giving Skubal a serious HR problem. That has not subsided this year, as he’s given up 11 already, tied for most in MLB even though he’s not a qualified starter. What HAS subsided is that bat-missing stuff, as his K rate is down significantly while his walk rate has grown. This rebuild can’t work if Mize and Skubal regress.
The saving grace for Mize at least has been a very low BABIP. Given all of the regression, at least he’s hung on to the single most-likely-to-regress thing. But here, there’s perhaps a bit more hope, as while Mize’s splitter has shown very little ability to miss bats, it’s helped him generate ground balls, and his GB% has jumped from under 40% to over 50% this year (both are, duh, small samples). Fewer HRs thanks to the GB spike (and new baseball) along with fewer hits could potentially make for an okay mid-rotation starter – not what the Tigers want, but something they’d perhaps accept. But even that’s a ways off, and would likely require the walk rate coming down.
1: Kelenic, LF
2: Haniger, DH
3: Seager, 3B
4: Lewis, CF
5: Crawford, SS
6: Marmolejos, 1B
7: Murphy, C
8: Haggerty, RF
9: Walton, 2B
SP: Kikuchi
The M’s officially lost OF Braden Bishop today, as the San Francisco Giants picked up the ex-Washington Husky on waivers. I’m happy for Bishop, who joins the org near his childhood home, and the org that employs his brother, Hunter. I seriously hope he has some further big league opportunities there, and that if nothing else, he gets some games with his brother. As always, support his charity, 4Mom.org supporting research for cures and supporting caregivers dealing with the scourge of Alzheimer’s Disease.
The M’s optioned IF Jack Mayfield, who didn’t get in a game, and brought up reliever Brady Lail, who appeared in a few games last year. They also DFA’d Domingo Tapia, which I didn’t see coming. He looked good in the spring, before an ill-timed injury slowed his progress and probably kept him off the opening day roster. He got 2 IP with Seattle in early May, but has been a solid reliever for Tacoma thus far. As we’ve seen in recent years, Tacoma’s going to run through pitchers like crazy this season.
Speaking of the Rainiers, they lost yesterday’s game in Salt Lake 9-8. It was yet another bullpen game, and Tapia was the best of the bunch, tossing 1 1/3 scoreless with 2Ks. Unfortunately, they gave up 4 HRs (including 3 by Scott Schebler) which was enough to overcome HRs by Taylor Trammell (who Salt Lake would like to stop facing *right now*) and Jose Godoy. Tonight’s starter is TBD.
Springfield won the series finale against Arkansas 1-0, spoiling the org return of Tyler Herb, who pitched 6 IP, giving up the 1 R on 4 H and no walks. Brent Honeyman doubled for the sole hit the Travelers logged.
Everett capped off a six-game sweep of Tri City in style, winning 20-3. Julio Rodriguez ran his consecutive-games-with-a-HR streak to 4, and Zach DeLoach homered as part of a 3-6 night. Juan Then went 2 2/3, and then Isaiah Campbell went 4 IP giving up 2 R (1 ER) and striking out 7. Brendan McGuigan capped it off with 2 scoreless innings and 5 Ks, giving him a season line of 8 IP, *0H*, 2BB (1 intentional), and 14 K’s. That’s…that’s pretty good.
Modesto beat Rancho Cucamongo 8-7 *despite* being out-homered 4-0. SP Damon Casetta-Stubbs had a disastrous outing, giving up 3 of those dingers and 5 runs in only 2/3 of an inning. But they battled back, as Victor Labrada and Robert Perez both had 3 hits, and ultimately the Nuts 13 total hits were enough to outlast the Quakes.
Everyone’s off tonight except Tacoma.
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Trammell with yet another HR for Tacoma tonight. He has been scorching-hot since being optioned.
I don’t get the Tapia DFA. But, Seattle does 3-4 things every year that I struggle to understand.