Game 44, Tigers at Mariners – No-Hit Again
Logan Gilbert vs. Tarik Skubal, 7:10pm
I think Spencer Turnbull is a better pitcher than is commonly understood, and he pitched a very good game last night. But this M’s offense is pretty bad right now, and it may get worse: Dylan Moore has been moved to the 10-day IL, with Jack Mayfield (a glove-first SS) coming back up to the M’s. After their second no-hitter of the month, the M’s team average dipped below .200, as they enter play tonight at .199 collectively. I said it in the off-season, but this was always going to be a problem, and I’m not sure what the M’s can do to solve it. Yes, the league itself has seen average plummet, and there are some good teams having trouble stringing together base hits. But they work around their lack of average by hitting for power, or, in the case of Cleveland, by pitching well enough to compensate. The combination of a deadened ball, an extremely tough home park, and a line-up that’s either learning on the job or trying to shake off rust is a combination that’s going to make no-hitters through 6-7 innings a very, very common occurrence this year.
Jarred Kelenic looks a bit lost, but he’ll come around. I’m still hopeful about Logan Gilbert as well, and tonight’s a good opportunity to see if both can take a step forward. All of Gilbert’s strikeouts came on his slider, and that’s a pitch he can lean on in tight situations. His fastball got hit hard against Cleveland, so hopefully facing an even more anemic offense can give him the confidence to use it, to keep it elevated, and follow it with his somewhat rare slow curve.
Today’s opposing starter is Tarik Skubal, a hard-throwing lefty out of Seattle U. MLB.com had a good story about this sort-of homecoming (he’s from Arizona). He was an intriguing prospect during his sophomore year, but blew out his elbow during the year, requiring TJ surgery. He came back for his junior year after his rehab and was extremely up and down – he’d alternate a dominating start with one where he couldn’t find the plate. He struck out nearly 12 per 9, but walked over 6 per 9. The Tigers grabbed him in the 9th round, and almost immediately, Skubal put it all together.
He was great in high-A, but then, lots of pitchers look good in the FSL. So, the Tigers moved him to AA later in 2019 and all he did was strike out 82 in just 42 1/3 IP. Reports on his velo were glowing, and nobody seemed to be able to put the ball in play against him. Without a minor league season last year, the Tigers brought him to Detroit, and while he managed to strike out more than a batter an inning, he was beset by hard contact, giving up 9 HRs in 32 IP. It was a call-up, in the middle of a pandemic, with a juiced ball. I think everyone was fine giving him a pass on a less-than-stellar debut.
But this year, everything’s gotten worse. He’s given up *11* HRs – most in baseball – in 33 innings, essentially re-juicing the baseball through poor location. In a league where hits allowed are rare, he’s suddenly allowing more than a hit an inning. By statcast, he’s one of the easiest pitchers to barrel up, and he’s allowed far more hard contact than average. Worse, that strikeout rate’s in free fall, as he suddenly has a *below average* rate. Oh, and the walks are back. It’s a small sample in a lost season for a bad ball club, but this is…not what he wanted to see, and not what the Tigers vaunted pitching development wanted. I said much the same thing about Casey Mize, and while Mize has certainly been better this year, he looked like a different guy the other night.
Skubal’s got a varied repertoire, with a four-seamer at 94, a hard slider at 86, a curve, and a splitter that he learned this past off-season, but which he’s recently shelved for a change. His slider’s his out-pitch, but unlike last night where both pitchers had carbon-copy sliders, tonight’s pitchers throw very different pitches. Skubal’s slider is fascinating, in that it’s thrown with very low spin, and it’s thrown with almost no spin efficiency. It’s a gyro-ball, with almost no movement of any kind. That can still be effective – even Felix Hernandez used to have one like that. But it’s lack of movement would pair really well with a sinker with armside run or a four-seam with tons of rise. Skubal doesn’t really have that, though his four-seam does have some interesting horizontal movement.
Still, the grades on his fastball and slider as a prospect were 70 and 60 (per Fangraphs), and it’s kind of interesting to see just how little MLB hitters care. He’ll look good at times, but the mistakes add up. I wonder if he needs to throw a different breaking ball against righties, the prime source of his rather grim stat line. It’s fine against lefties, but righties hit it well. The problem is that the same’s true with his fastball. I’m not sure if he’s tipping it, or if his motion allows righties to see it better, but something’s not quite right.
1: Kelenic, LF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Murphy, C
6: Crawford, SS
7: Mayfield, 2B
8: Haggerty, DH
9: Marmolejos, 1B
SP: Gilbert
I’ve given Detroit crap about the quality of the Tigers’ line-ups, but they’ve done just enough. The M’s are coming off a no-hitter, again, and yet have Sam Haggerty DH’ing and about as rough a bottom-half as we’ve seen in a while. I mean…ouch.
Salt Lake destroyed Tacoma 9-3. Cal Raleigh had 2 hits, and Taylor Trammell had 1. They’re off tonight.
Arkansas lost in extras to Corpus Christi, 10-8. Jake Scheiner had 3 hits, including 2 doubles. Today’s game’s been rained out.
Spokane stopped the surging Everett Aqua Sox, 5-2. Matt Brash was good but wild, walking 4 in 3 2/3 scoreless, but striking out 5. David Hill struck out 7 in 3 2/3 for Spokane, but the win went to none other than Riley Pint, the former #4 overall pick out of a Kansas HS, and a guy beset by control issues that have kept him in the low minors. Good to see him pitch a nearly-clean inning; he did give up a walk. Hope he can put it together someday. Levi Stoudt starts for Everett tonight.
Modesto destroyed Inland Empire, 14-4. The Nuts got dingers from Cade Marlowe and Noelvi Marte, both of whom are looking like they might need more challenging opponents soon. Marte had 3 hits on the night, and both players have OPS’s above 1.100. Josias de los Santos was great in 5 IP, giving up 1 unearned run.
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(looks up Jack Mayfield on B-R)
Huh, .165 lifetime hitter in MLB, I guess that’s why DiPoto signed him. Fits right in.
Mayfield was a deep-depth move (waiver claim). With Moore at 2B, France capable, and Walton & Long on the 40 and in Tacoma (Long *expected to be healthy and in Tacoma), it didn’t seem like a big deal.
Yet here we are.