Game 46, Mariners at Padres
Justus Sheffield vs. Ryan Weathers, 5:40pm
The M’s sit at 21-24. They’re on a losing streak, culminating in last night’s 16-1 drubbing. So I’ll stipulate that it’s been a painful week, and the Covid drama of the past few days has definitely not helped. But this is about as pessimistic as I’ve seen the M’s fanbase in a long time, and…that’s odd. I mean, look: I’ve been pessimistic for years/decades. This team just *does* that to people. But as much as I found the over-the-top optimism of April to be misplaced, I’m not sure the burn-it-all-down feelings are warranted, either.
This team wasn’t supposed to be good, and is not, in fact, good. I feel like there needs to be a mismatch between expectations and results to wring this much emotion out of a scarred fanbase. I think part of it must be the daily ledger of transaction that feeds the perception that the team wasn’t fully ready to go, that the roster had pretty massive holes – not to compete for a title, but to just go out and play in/complete a 162 game season. That’s warranted, and everything’s cascading down to Tacoma, who seem destined to beat their own record for most pitchers used in a season.
Part of it has been the slow starts for both Logan Gilbert and Jarred Kelenic. Gilbert’s struggled against two anemic offenses, and Jarred Kelenic’s shown flashes, but is 5 for his first 34. This frustration is understandable, to a point. I think the team built up these two – and especially Kelenic – as instant saviors, and they’re not. I think those of us who roasted the team for manipulating Kelenic’s service time probably fed into that, with the arguments that the M’s were making their current team worse by not bringing him up. Well, now he’s here, and the M’s have been no-hit and swept by the Detroit Tigers. This is an emotional response, though, not really a rational one. I’m still bullish on Kelenic and once his ~.150 BABIP corrects, he’ll be a solid MLB hitter; that process could start today.
Gilbert’s a bit more of a concern, just given how hard and how consistently he’s been hit by batters who haven’t done much hitting. The plane on his four-seam has resulted in an absolute ton of line drives and fly balls, and that’s just hard to do in today’s game, deadened ball or no. I still think that starting from a framework of really good control, 94 mph velo and some breaking stuff gives him a very, very high floor. I think with a few tweaks, he can be a more than serviceable mid-rotation piece.
The biggest unanswered question with all of this is: are the M’s the team that can make those tweaks? Are the M’s the team that can get the most out of Kelenic’s undeniable talent? Are they the team that plug roster holes intelligently? The M’s are in this position – really since about 2002 – because a series of front offices could neither reliably identify the talent *they already had* or build depth to support that talent through free agency and trades. The team has developed a few transcendent talents. The team’s brought in some amazing players in free agency. What they couldn’t do was fill in around that, and they had a number of chances to do so.
Part of the problem there’s been that different years have had different incentives and goals. At times, it was go all-in and win now, and that’s how you lose Shin-Soo Choo, Adam Jones, or, more recently, Pablo Lopez and Freddy Peralta. At other times, the club was content to build around high draft picks, but for a variety of reasons, that didn’t quite work out. There’s no doubt that the current rebuild has left the team with way more talent than they’ve had in years. I don’t think Kelenic’s the same as Dustin Ackley, as hyped as Ackley was. But it’s still not clear that the M’s are any closer to figuring out how to fill in around him.
This is strange. This FO has tried to build so many different TYPES of team, and has partially succeeded at it, but they still can’t make those teams great. I still remember the way Dipoto talked about building a 1970s style team in 2018, one led by Dee Strange-Gordon and designed to hit for high average. They…kind of did that, but it wasn’t enough. Now, they’ve got an extremely 2021 team with more power, plenty of patience, and a very low average, but that’s not exactly working either. I hope they know what they want, because they can’t waste an offseason: they need to bring in players this winter to help the new, Kelenic-led club compete. They need pitchers, a deeper bullpen (I know there are a lot of injuries, but it often feels like Graveman and some question marks), catching, IF help, etc. All of this is predicated, though, on figuring out what’s going on for players like Evan White and, to a lesser extent, JP Crawford: players at the early side of prime age who seem to be regressing.
Today’s starter for the Padres, Ryan Weathers, is interesting in that he has some slight similarities with Logan Gilbert, but has fashioned a very different approach. Weathers throws 60% four-seam fastballs at around 94. So far, so Gilbert. His primary breaking ball is a slider that doesn’t have much in the way of spin or spin efficiency, but it’s produced decent results. He’s got a third pitch – a change instead of Gilbert’s slow curve – but he’s primarily a four-seam/slider guy.
Gilbert approaches each PA like a power pitcher: he’s trying to strike you out, and his fastball’s a big part of that – both to get ahead, and to get whiffs at the top of the zone. His control and confidence mean he’s in the zone a lot, and thus gets a lot of swings. That’s helped keep walks low, but all of those swings on fastballs has meant that a few of them get hit really hard. Weathers throws the same pitches about the same percentage of the time, but seems to know – or has learned – he’s not going to overpower people with them. His fastball’s produced great results despite the fact that it has extremely low spin (lower than Gilbert’s below-average FB), and thus sinks quite a bit. He doesn’t always use it like a sinker – he’s fine throwing to the top of the zone – but it’s helped him run normal to above-average ground ball rates. You can’t give up HRs on grounders, so that’s clearly helped. His slider’s harder than Gilbert’s, but it’s equally low-ranked in terms of spin, and it’s used more like a cutter. Where Gilbert uses his to get swings out of the zone, Weathers keeps his *in* the zone, either to grab a called strike or to generate some balls in play, a little like Zach Plesac did. It’s possible that Weather has just gotten lucky and Gilbert unlucky, but Weathers’ transition to MLB has gone quite smoothly, despite the fact he’s only 21.
1: Kelenic, LF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Nottingham, 1B
6: Crawford, SS
7: Murphy, C
8: Mayfield, 2B
9/SP: Sheffield
Today’s transaction report includes the news that the M’s just plucked Ty Kelly from the Long Island Ducks in the independent Atlantic League. Kelly was in the M’s org years before, having a great campaign in Tacoma before being traded for SP Sam Gaviglio in mid-2015. He went on to get some big league time with the Mets and Phillies, and played in the WBC for Team Israel. What’s notable here is that he retired from baseball, opened a food truck, and talks/writes about the game online. I had missed the part where he unretired to play in an indie league, and then it turns out he didn’t quite make it to the indie league, being pulled back to affiliated ball.
The M’s also traded the recently DFA’d Domingo Tapia to the Royals, and picked up RP Danial Zamora, who’d just been waived by the Mets. Zamora is a lefty slider-specialist, so figures to be used as a LOOGY. His fastball’s only 88, but he really pitches off of the slider – throwing it about 3/4 of his pitches. He’ll go reinforce Tacoma, as will Wyatt Mills and Aaron Fletcher, who’ve been optioned back as Anthony Misiewicz and Robert Dugger are back from the Covid/contact tracing IL.
In the minors, Tacoma’s coming off a win in Round Rock, as Darren McCaughan went 6 solid IP to help the R’s to a 6-1 win. Cal Raleigh homered and doubled, and Taylor Trammell, Dillon Thomas, and Jantzen Witte all doubled. That’s doubles in consecutive games for Raleigh. Jantzen Witte was back at 3B after being called in to pitch in the previous game, a 10-5 Express victory. Kind of shocked that was the first time a position player pitched for Tacoma, who’s churning their roster as much as Seattle. No word on the Tacoma starter tonight, but Round Rock starts the aforementioned Sam Gaviglio.
Arkansas swept a double-header in Corpus Christi on the 20th, with Ian McKinney pitching a (7IP) CG and striking out 11 in game 2. Last night, the Hooks won an extra inning contest 7-6. Jake Scheiner and Joe Rizzo both had two hits, including a double. McKinney seems like he’s due for a promotion, especially given the state of Tacoma’s rotation, and given the fact that he’s struck out 29 in just 17 excellent innings. Today, Devin Sweet gets the start for the Travelers.
Everett beat Spokane 8-6 thanks to HRs from Carter Bins and Jack Larsen. Bins also added a double. Stephen Kolek started and went 3 scoreless. The M’s giant Brazilian reliever Igor Januario gave up a run in relief, but I hadn’t heard much from him in years – glad to see he made a huge leap from the DSL team in 2019 all the way up to high A this year. Julio Rodriguez went 0-4, but had two walks. Brandon Williamson gets the start tonight. He’s yet to give up a run in 8 IP and has 17 Ks.
But if it’s impressive K rates you want, check out Modesto starter Taylor Dollard. He got the loss in last night’s 3-2 contest against Inland Empire, giving up 3 runs in 4 2/3. But he struck out 11, giving him 29 on the year in just 13 2/3 IP. He was a 5th round pick in the short 2020 draft out of Cal Poly. Noelvi Marte went 2-4. Tonight’s starter is TBD.
Last night’s game was as brutal as the news that cane before it. Whatever happens tonight can’t be nearly as bad, right?
Am I right? Anyone?
First time?
https://youtu.be/Qu_sVAByvBk
I’m hoping for Chaos Ball, but realistically There Is No Floor.
I think the defensive diarrhea that Torrens caught was contagious.
Whatever happened to control the zone. I guy hitting below the Mendoza line gets walked 4 times?!? Really?