Game 47, Mariners at Padres – Getaway Day
Justin Dunn vs. Yu Darvish, 1:10pm
It’s getaway day in San Diego, as the M’s head to Oakland tomorrow. After 5 straight losses and a line-up that can charitably be called “sub-optimal,” the M’s just need to get out of this series and this city. As many have said, the M’s simply aren’t in the Padres class right now, and now they’ll face Yu Darvish, one of the Pads best starters. They’ve been comprehensively outclassed, and in the final game of the series, they’re 3:1 underdogs, and that seems kinder than it needs to be.
Defensive miscues, a bout of wildness, and some well-timed hits helped the Padres pull away from Seattle yesterday, so now it falls to Justin Dunn to try and be the stopper that the M’s desperately need. To do so, he’ll need to be just about perfect given the line-up supporting him.
Yu Darvish is again one of the top starters in the league, putting that weird 2018-19 hiccup behind him and pitching to a 2.80 FIP and an ERA solidly under 2. He’s still striking out over 30% of batters, and his walk rate remains low. He uses his 6-7 pitch mix to dial in just what he needs, and it’s helped him strand nearly 90% of runners. That may regress some, but his BABIP is incredibly low, in large part because he’s leaned into his new park and the new ball.
Like some other pitchers the M’s have seen recently, Darvish pitches backwards, relying on a cutter or slider (depending on who you ask) as his primary pitch. It’s…it hasn’t been great, in and of itself, but as a breaking ball (or breaking-ish fastball), it can induce some weaker contact. MLB calls it a cutter and sees a high BA-against, but nothing crazy. Brooks calls it a slider, combining his slider/cutters, and sees it as a decent but unspectacular pitch. What this approach has done, though, is help make his fastball a dominant, dominant pitch. The whiff rate on it is through the roof, but so too is the angle batters hit it (when they’re able to hit it). For years, the average angle on his four-seam has been in the low-20s, but it’s now at 36%. He’s not getting elevated contact with it, he’s getting *mis-hit* contact with it. That helps explain the low BABIP and the great HR/9 mark he’s put up. His GB rate is 41% for his career, and has been fairly reliably bouncing between the high 30’s and low 40s. It’s now at 30. He’s daring batters to hit the new, deadened ball out of Petco, and each attempt results in either a strikeout or a pop-up.
It’s worth remembering that Darvish moved from Chicago for a package of not-that-heralded prospects and a bottom-of-the-rotation starter. No, it wasn’t quite the Nolan Arenado heist, but then, Darvish still has a few years on his deal. Not only did the Padres get a Cy Young contender, but they also got his personal catcher, Victor Caratini, while protecting their big prospects like MacKenzie Gore, Luis Campusano, CJ Abrams, Ryan Weathers, and Tucupita Marcano. Must be nice.
1: Walton, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Lewis, CF
5: Godoy, C
6: Haggerty, LF
7: Nottingham, 1B
8: Mayfield, 2B
9/SP: Dunn
Brady Lail was claimed on waivers by Philadelphia, but Jose Marmolejos cleared waivers, and will head to Tacoma.
Speaking of the Rainiers, they beat the Round Rock express 9-5 in a game that featured 7 HRs. Jake Fraley and Luis Torrens hit back to back HRs to begin the game. Round Rock hit 4, but Hector Santiago pitched effectively – giving up 3 dingers to go 5 IP with 3 runs allowed. That’s a classic Santiago game right there. Max Roberts, just called up from the low minors, was great in his AAA debut, tossing 2 scoreless with 3 Ks. He may head back to Modesto so the R’s can get another pitcher a chance. Today, that “another pitcher” is Bernie Martinez, who’ll be making his AAA debut as well.
Arkansas beat Corpus Christi 6-2 behind Devin Sweet’s best game of the year. The change-up artist had control issues in his first game of the year, but didn’t walk anyone last night, going 7 IP giving up 2 R (1 ER) and striking out 8. Jake Scheiner hit his 7th double, and Dom Thompson-Williams hit his first HR on the year. Tyler Herb makes his second start in his return to the org.
Everett lost to Spokane 7-5, as the Indians scored 4 in the 5th to take the lead. Julioooo went 1-4, Brandon Williamson gave up 4 R in 4 2/3 IP, striking out 9. Juan Then starts today’s game.
Modesto won a slugfest at Inland Empire, 10-7. IE racked up *6* errors in the game. Noelvi Marte went 0-5, but Trent Tinglestad went 2-4 with a double. Damon Casetta-Stubbs starts for the Nuts tonight.
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The present seems pretty cloudy (Pythag says this is a legit bad team, and, well, 2/3rds of the lineup should be in Tacoma), but the future seems pretty bright (minor league W-L is a leading indicator of future MLB quality).
Gonna be a grim slog through the present though.
And let’s not forget, Tacoma’s bullpen.
The M’s are looking like they’ll do us all a favor and fade out of anything approaching a pennant race by Memorial Day.
Wonder if Haniger goes on the trading block…
Trade Haniger and Seager. Get something useful for later while they still have value.
Seager has a poison pill contract (team option for 2022 becomes player option if traded). Given that the M’s payroll for 2021 is super low, it’s kind of stupid to send actual 2022 payroll money and blow a hole in 3B you need to fix in 2022 either way. I mean, sure, if someone is just aching to send MLB-ready talent for a mid-30’s infielder who’s going to make a lot in 2022… but I kinda doubt it.
(The M’s frankly don’t need to be trading away guys who can produce in 2021-2022 for guys who won’t be ready until 2023-2024. Their minors are likely to produce some guys for 2023-2024.)
Haniger’s a bit of a different case because they’re loaded up on OFers pretty soon and he is probably an easier fit onto a team’s payroll, though I think there’s a good case to keep him because it’s not like the roster is loaded with MLB-ready players. An OF of Kelenic/Lewis/Julioooooo sounds nice but it’s pretty raw. I can see this going either way- there’s the Branch Rickey “we’d rather do this a year too soon” approach, or “we’d like to have some players to make the 2022 team better”.
Plus the psychological effect in your clubhouse of “once you’re good here and have any kind of veteran status, they trade you and kneecap the team, because, well, Mariners”. This isn’t exactly an organization that’s got much in the way of ANY proven veterans. You have Marco, Seager, Mitch, Crawford and Graveman. And that’s it.
I’m on the fence about Seager. I’m not thrilled to see him go, and I think he can still contribute, but I’m starting to wonder if it’s in everyone’s best interests to move on. It’s hard to envision a trade happening, unless he’s rewarded for waiving his right to that 15m option, but letting him walk at the end of the year might be for the best.
Haniger is a little different, but he conveniently bridges the gap till Julio arrives. Whether or not he’s traded probably has a lot to do with where they see themselves as a team in 2022. If they’re going to cheap out or half-ass things again, they might as well trade him.
Hopefully those days are behind us.
I’ll go into a little more detail…
Apart from realistic expectations we should have for his age and profile, one question I keep asking myself is if Seager has become so accustomed to losing that he incidentally & unintentionally shows young players how to be comfortable with it.
It’s important for players to put losses behind them, but do they starve for victory after a brutal loss (or series)? Do they take it personally and prepare harder to achieve success and sustain it? We hear about it on occasion, but does it happen enough? Do the veterans attempt to inspire them, or just go through the normal preparation and treat games as routine?
These may sound like stupid questions, and I’m certainly not suggesting Seager is the problem. I just wonder if his experience has led to a mindset that doesn’t reflect or resonate as well as I’ve assumed.
Just a month ago I was leaning more heavily towards the keep-him camp. I’m more neutral now. For now, anyway.
It’s hard to envision a trade happening, unless he’s rewarded for waiving his right to that 15m option, but letting him walk at the end of the year might be for the best.
What’s the incentive for Seager to give up leverage when MLB and the MLBPA are about to head into contentious negotiations?
If it’s “a large sum of money”… well, see my previous comment about “it’s stupid to spend money to make your 2021 team worse when you could have spent it in the offseason to make it better”. It’s goddamn crazypants to send Seager and like 7 million somewhere (or into his own pockets) to help a future M’s team when 7 million this last offseason could have helped out THIS team.
I just wonder if his experience has led to a mindset that doesn’t reflect or resonate as well as I’ve assumed.
This could literally be said about any player who’s had a good career on bad teams. It probably HAS been said about some of them, like Dave Winfield on those bad Padres teams. I am extremely skeptical that this exists as a real effect.
You know what helps keep you from losing? Actual talent. Seager’s just fine when he’s surrounded by actual MLB ballplayers instead of the Tacoma Rainiers. And frankly he doesn’t make roster decisions or payroll budgets (if you were going to get rid of people for the 2021 team’s performance, it’s THOSE people you ought to be holding accountable). Not a guy who’s having his usual solid year holding down a job he’s done for a decade, on both better teams and teams like this.
Regardless of all that, letting him walk means you have a nice big 2-3 WAR hole at an infield position where the M’s (checks notes) have Ty France (assuming the bat lets him play wherever) and that’s about it. JP Crawford is your ONLY established veteran infielder. Everyone else is various shades of ???? (Evan White, Luis Torrens, Tom Murphy, Shed Long, France at whatever defensive position you settle on) or just not very good (Dylan Moore, Sam Haggerty), or kids like Noelvi Marte or Raleigh.
That’s not exactly a “WOOO GO FOR IT!!!” setup for 2022. So you’ll need to spend money on a FA or two, or do another song and dance about the kids and move the contention goalposts to 2023…oh hey, that’s five years, might as well have done a teardown back in 2019.
Speaking of JP… so, it’s OK that he’s essentially turned into a somewhat better Brendan Ryan (glove first player, bat isn’t great, even for a SS, but oh well, he’s not actually a real problem as long as you have OTHER bats, because the glove is good enough to make him a valuable player), right?
JP: .234/.323/.351
BR: .233/.294/.314
We have to expect that one of the up-and-coming outfielders — Kellenic, Kyle, and Julio — will disappoint, because that’s what highly touted prospects do. Some of them meet or exceed expectations, but some of them do not.
I won’t recite the absurdly long list of Mariner prospects who never had much of a career at the major league level. And I have no prediction about which of the three will be the bust. But I do predict that one of them will.
So that will be one hole in the outfield to fill. It that were the only issue, it wouldn’t be a big deal, fill the hole with Haniger or some random decent free agent.
But that outfield is the future Mariners’ strength. They pretty much need an entire infield as well, except for Crawford at short. That’s more than just a hole, it’s almost a whole infield.
And then there’s the improvements needed on the pitching staff …
This is a team being built to be competitive in 2022? I don’t see it. I don’t think I see it in 2023 either, although things can (and hopefully will) happen between now and then.
What’s the incentive for Seager to give up leverage when MLB and the MLBPA are about to head into contentious negotiations?
Yeah, why do you think I said it’s hard to envision anything happening? I don’t know where you cooked up 7 million from, incentives could be as simple as an extra year tacked on, but that would water down the return, making it pretty much pointless. That’s the assumption, anyway. I was more or less agreeing with you that he isn’t likely moveable.
This could literally be said about any player who’s had a good career on bad teams. It probably HAS been said about some of them, like Dave Winfield on those bad Padres teams. I am extremely skeptical that this exists as a real effect.
How many have played 11 years for the same, terrible organization? Winfield played 7 or 8, and few teams have had this kind of history of terrible embedded into their DNA as an organization. It’s not just the losing on the field, it’s the controversies as well.
And of course this is speculation. But we don’t hear him credited for pep-talks or pushing younger players, so I think it’s a fair question.
Regardless of all that, letting him walk means you have a nice big 2-3 WAR hole at an infield position where the M’s (checks notes) have Ty France (assuming the bat lets him play wherever) and that’s about it.
Do you think I’m suggesting they should let him walk and stick with internal options?
I’m not actually bent on replacing him, I’m simply raising some questions. But it should go without saying that a better, external alternative would be desired.
Look, they have a lot of work ahead of them as-is. I see the argument for keeping him around. But I also see the argument for starting anew.
This is a team being built to be competitive in 2022? I don’t see it. I don’t think I see it in 2023 either, although things can (and hopefully will) happen between now and then.
Who saw the farm going from dead-last to incredibly respectable over the course of roughly a year?
They have to spend. We haven’t seen that yet, so I have my reservations as well, but it helps that Jerry has been able to make things happen relatively fast.
I don’t know if anyone caught Passan’s comments on 710, but he suggested Seattle should add modestly this coming offseason and push in the chips after they know what they have with Kirby, Hancock, etc.
I disagree. I don’t think they can ask this fan base to be patient any longer. That doesn’t mean mindless spending, it simply means taking advantage of opportunities that won’t likely be there the following year.