Game 53, Rangers at Mariners
Justin Dunn vs. Mike Foltynewicz, 7:10pm
We just saw Foltynewicz a few weeks ago when the M’s visited Arlington, so hopefully this one goes about the same – the M’s got to Folty for 4 runs in 6 2/3 IP. The last time we saw Justin Dunn, he had just about the most Dunn game ever, finishing with a BABIP of exactly .000; he gave up one hit, and it left the building.
The great Eric Nusbaum asked a question this morning on twitter, and it sent me down a stats rabbit hole. Eric’s youngster asked if there are more foul balls or fair balls (balls in play) in baseball – a great, simple question that just ends up highlighting how baseball keeps changing. For much of baseball’s history, there have been more balls in play, with somewhat fewer fouls balls. But in another example of balls in play becoming increasingly rare, they’ve now fallen behind foul balls. In recent years – 2009-2014 or so, there were about 18% balls in play, with fouls coming in about 16-17%. In 2017, the two results finished in a statistical dead heat, but with fouls just barely overtaking balls in play. Thus far in 2021, there’ve been fouls on 17.5% of pitches, but balls in play have fallen down to 16.8%.
This is the same basic process, though much less severe, as what happened to the ratio of hits to strikeouts. In 2002, there were about 12,000 more base hits than strikeouts, or a ratio of almost 1.4 to 1. Since that time, hits have more or less stayed in the vicinity of where they were – around 42,000-43,000 (though they dipped in 2014, the peak of the little batting ice age). What’s changed has been the unbroked growth of strikeouts, which finally passed base hits in 2018, and which doesn’t show any sign of slowing down or stopping; the ratio is now 1.15:1 *in favor of strikeouts*. That’s the modern game, and it’s why so many people are worried, and looking for rule changes to bring balance back. That was the theme at Baseball Prospectus this week, and this tweet thread from their EIC Craig Goldstein goes through them. It started with the restrictor plate piece that Craig wrote with friend-of-the-blog Patrick Dubuque. It’s not an idea I’m completely sold on, but it’s a great article, and it’s worth thinking about. In the meantime, for all fans who’ve grown tired of the binary of home runs and strikeouts, might I suggest some Mariners baseball? The M’s are 29th in MLB in strikeout rate, ahead of only the Rockies, whose offseason and general outlook got their GM canned. The M’s feature the lowest team BABIP, so you’ll get to see fielders doing a lot of successful fielding, and while their pitchers give up some dingers, they give up far fewer than the Rockies or Astros, and essentially the same rate as the World Champ Dodgers.
1: Kelenic, LF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, DH
4: Lewis, CF
5: France, 1B
6: Crawford, SS
7: Godoy, C
8: Campbell, 3B
9: Walton, 2B
SP: Dunn
Reno beat Tacoma in 10 innings 8-7 last night, despite a HR from Cal Raleigh. Jake Fraley hit a dinger of his own. Darren McCaughan had a rough outing, giving up 6 in 6 innings, but that’s often how it goes in Reno. Today, Vinny Nittoli started a bullpen day for the R’s, and they’re winning fairly easily.
Tulsa beat Arkansas 7-3. The Travs got their three runs on three solo HRs. Devin Sweet started today, and K’d 6 in 5 IP, giving up 3 R.
Everett got blanked by Vancouver 3-0. Michael Limoncelli made his pro debut, giving up 2 R in 1 IP. Brandon Williamson starts today’s game.
Modesto lost to Visalia 4-2, despite two more hits for the red-hot Cade Marlowe. Sam Carlson’s starting tonight’s rematch.
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Question: Why is Julio Rodriquez on the ‘temporary inactive list’ and apparently playing back in the DR?
Julio is playing for the Dominican national team.
So this is good.
Glad to hear.
Thanks.