Game 42 – Tigers at Mariners – The Underbelly of the AL
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Casey Mize, 7:10pm
With a win yesterday, the M’s took three of four from Cleveland, a team that’s probably better than they looked against Seattle. It’s a great accomplishment for a still-rebuilding M’s team to beat Shane Bieber to win a winnable series. I know: the Indians cannot hit, pretty much at all. You have to look out for one hitter in the line-up. But their pitching depth make them a threat, and after the roughest of starts, the M’s line-up made it hard for Cleveland’s starters to get comfortable. It’s a credit to them.
Remember in the season’s first week or two, we looked at the “clutch” stats for the M’s, and how they were #1 by a mile despite somewhat pedestrian overall numbers? Yeah, it’s still true. They’re hitting .205 with a .285 OBP, so their win-probability added isn’t top of the table anymore (though it’s still, perhaps shockingly, solidly in positive territory). But they’re in front by a mile in clutch, meaning how much better they hit than their OWN baseline stats in close/late situations. As I said in April, this doesn’t show a lot of reliability – teams that are high one month, or one year, don’t reliably repeat that performance – but it remains incredibly entertaining. Kyle Seager is hitting .232, but we don’t care, because it seems like each one of his hits has changed a game, or kick-started a rally. It’s no surprise that he’s the #1 batter in individual clutch hitting in MLB, and JP Crawford, whose hitting I have raked over the coals repeatedly in these pages, is 5th.
Today, the M’s host the Detroit Tigers for three games, and they’ll visit them in Michigan early next month. Even more than the poor-hitting Clevelanders, Detroit really is the soft underbelly of the American League. Somewhat like the M’s, they’re in a big rebuild that’s seen them stock up on college arms in the draft and overhaul their player development group to get more out of those arms. It’s a solid enough plan, and several top arms – including tonight’s starter – have graduated to the big leagues. It…it hasn’t helped.
Yet. No one here is freaking out because Logan Gilbert gave up some dingers in his debut, and I’m sure many Tigers fans are at least trying to remain calm as both Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize have encountered…resistance in their first 50-100 innings at the big league level. It hasn’t helped that their offense gives them essentially no margin for error. Detroit’s offense ranks dead last, as they strike out even more than the whiff-prone Mariners, but don’t walk as much and have significantly less power.
One of their best hitters, Akil Baddoo, is a great story, but when a Rule 5 guy with a K rate approaching 40% is your success story, it’s looking bleak. The fact that Baddoo was plucked from another system highlights just how barren the cupboard’s been for Detroit, and how much they’ve struggled to develop hitters. They have a chance now with #1 overall pick Spencer Torkelsen, but he’s a ways away and can’t do it all by himself. In the meantime, they’ve got to use retreads like Nomar Mazara, Robbie Grossman, and Jonathan Schoop along with late-period Miguel Cabrera while hoping their pitchers can keep them afloat. They’re like a mirror-image Baltimore Orioles, who sent away the likes of Manny Machado and just hoped that one day they could develop a pitcher. What’s terrifying for Detroit is that 1) it’s taken the Orioles years, and they’re still quite bad and 2) they’re currently better than Detroit.
Casey Mize was the #1 overall draft pick in 2018 out of Auburn, where he racked up 156 Ks to 16 walks in his draft year. In his first full year of pro ball, Mize pitched well, but his strikeout rate fell down markedly to 8-9 per 9IP. That’s good, it’s solid, but it’s not what you’d want from a #1 overall pitcher starting the year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. With still-low walk rates and a very good splitter, it didn’t slow his progression any – the FSL couldn’t touch him, and he encountered only sporadic resistence in AA. Without a minor league season, the Tigers called him up last year to make seven starts.
Unfortunately, the Casey Mize they got hasn’t looked like the guy they heard glowing reports on from the minors. Worse, that’s beginning to sound kind of familiar for Tigers fans. Casey Mize throws a four-seam fastball at 94-95, a hard slider at 88, that good split-change at 87, and a rare change in the low-80s. This is a deep, varied arsenal that should help him face lefties and righties alike, but to date that simply hasn’t happened: lefties eat him alive. The low walk rate in the minors hasn’t made the jump to MLB, as he’s walking about 10% of opposing hitters thus far. The strikeout rate fell when he moved to MLB (so far so good), and has dropped even more this year compared to his call-up year (not so good). At this point, his K% is in the 11th percentile in MLB, driven by an inability to miss bats. To top it all off, he’s had serious home run trouble.
This sounds a bit like the problems former Seattle U standout Tarik Skubal has had. He’d gone from intriguing enigma to minor league beast in the Tigers system, adding velo to the point he occasionally touched 100 from the left side. He was one of the minors biggest strikeout pitchers in 2019, and, like Mize, made his debut for Detroit last year as there was nothing much more to teach him at the Alternate Site. The K’s were always going to drop, but he kept them high-ish last year, with a K% over 27%. But it came at a cost, as batters hit him much harder than their minor league peers, giving Skubal a serious HR problem. That has not subsided this year, as he’s given up 11 already, tied for most in MLB even though he’s not a qualified starter. What HAS subsided is that bat-missing stuff, as his K rate is down significantly while his walk rate has grown. This rebuild can’t work if Mize and Skubal regress.
The saving grace for Mize at least has been a very low BABIP. Given all of the regression, at least he’s hung on to the single most-likely-to-regress thing. But here, there’s perhaps a bit more hope, as while Mize’s splitter has shown very little ability to miss bats, it’s helped him generate ground balls, and his GB% has jumped from under 40% to over 50% this year (both are, duh, small samples). Fewer HRs thanks to the GB spike (and new baseball) along with fewer hits could potentially make for an okay mid-rotation starter – not what the Tigers want, but something they’d perhaps accept. But even that’s a ways off, and would likely require the walk rate coming down.
1: Kelenic, LF
2: Haniger, DH
3: Seager, 3B
4: Lewis, CF
5: Crawford, SS
6: Marmolejos, 1B
7: Murphy, C
8: Haggerty, RF
9: Walton, 2B
SP: Kikuchi
The M’s officially lost OF Braden Bishop today, as the San Francisco Giants picked up the ex-Washington Husky on waivers. I’m happy for Bishop, who joins the org near his childhood home, and the org that employs his brother, Hunter. I seriously hope he has some further big league opportunities there, and that if nothing else, he gets some games with his brother. As always, support his charity, 4Mom.org supporting research for cures and supporting caregivers dealing with the scourge of Alzheimer’s Disease.
The M’s optioned IF Jack Mayfield, who didn’t get in a game, and brought up reliever Brady Lail, who appeared in a few games last year. They also DFA’d Domingo Tapia, which I didn’t see coming. He looked good in the spring, before an ill-timed injury slowed his progress and probably kept him off the opening day roster. He got 2 IP with Seattle in early May, but has been a solid reliever for Tacoma thus far. As we’ve seen in recent years, Tacoma’s going to run through pitchers like crazy this season.
Speaking of the Rainiers, they lost yesterday’s game in Salt Lake 9-8. It was yet another bullpen game, and Tapia was the best of the bunch, tossing 1 1/3 scoreless with 2Ks. Unfortunately, they gave up 4 HRs (including 3 by Scott Schebler) which was enough to overcome HRs by Taylor Trammell (who Salt Lake would like to stop facing *right now*) and Jose Godoy. Tonight’s starter is TBD.
Springfield won the series finale against Arkansas 1-0, spoiling the org return of Tyler Herb, who pitched 6 IP, giving up the 1 R on 4 H and no walks. Brent Honeyman doubled for the sole hit the Travelers logged.
Everett capped off a six-game sweep of Tri City in style, winning 20-3. Julio Rodriguez ran his consecutive-games-with-a-HR streak to 4, and Zach DeLoach homered as part of a 3-6 night. Juan Then went 2 2/3, and then Isaiah Campbell went 4 IP giving up 2 R (1 ER) and striking out 7. Brendan McGuigan capped it off with 2 scoreless innings and 5 Ks, giving him a season line of 8 IP, *0H*, 2BB (1 intentional), and 14 K’s. That’s…that’s pretty good.
Modesto beat Rancho Cucamongo 8-7 *despite* being out-homered 4-0. SP Damon Casetta-Stubbs had a disastrous outing, giving up 3 of those dingers and 5 runs in only 2/3 of an inning. But they battled back, as Victor Labrada and Robert Perez both had 3 hits, and ultimately the Nuts 13 total hits were enough to outlast the Quakes.
Everyone’s off tonight except Tacoma.
Game 40, Indians at Mariners
Justus Sheffield vs. Triston McKenzie, 6:10pm
Sooo, maybe Jarred Kelenic doesn’t really have “bad match-ups” after all. Everyone has platoon splits, or a pitch arsenal, or tunnels, or usage that might be advantageous or disadvantageous to left-handed batters. All of that stuff can change the probabilities of a good night at the dish, and it’s helpful to think about in any M’s match-up. But here’s the thing: some players don’t care about that stuff because they sit outside of it. Not that they’ll never have platoon splits of their own; of course they will. But that you can’t apply what’s true in the main to players so far off at the end of the talent distribution. The rules still apply to them, but they become little nudges, mere suggestions. It’s two games in, and I pretty firmly believe that we can’t analyze the match-up problems he’ll face (if any) – he IS the match-up problem. What is the opposing starter going to do differently because he’s here?
Kelenic’s HR and 2 2B night was the coming out party we’ve all been looking forward to. It made us all forget about the night before, and think about the thousands of nights to come that he’ll play some role in. It’s really cool. Baseball can make you cynical, and has undoubtedly honed my cynicism. It’s nice for something to break through all of that.
Today, it’s Triston McKenzie’s turn to try and figure out Jarred Kelenic. The skinny right-hander’s a more traditional pitcher in that he pitches off of a straight, rising four-seam fastball, usually near the top of the zone. Like last night’s pitcher, it’s thrown with below-average velo. Also similar to Civale are the change and slider secondaries that are thrown quite firm – 86-87. They have the exact same speed, but break in opposite directions, but are thrown hard enough that it doesn’t really seem like whiffs are what he’s after. His slider and curve (much less break than Civale’s) are put in play less than 10% of the time he throws them. They’re there to get the hitter to wonder what’s coming next, and then to get called strikes or the occasional whiff when the batter’s already in the hole. It’s the opposite approach to Zach Plesac, I think, and it produces something like inverse results.
Not saying that they’re *better* necessarily, just completely opposite. If all I knew about McKenzie was the above, I might assume he was a low-strikeout pitcher like Civale (or Plesac). If he’s fastball-heavy, that shouldn’t lead to whiffs, and maybe it produces a Justin Dunn-style low BABIP? Instead, McKenzie is a strikeout machine, with 76 in his 57 big league innings. His BABIP really is low, so maybe he induces weak/weird contact with that rising fastball? Nooo, he’s the hardest-hit pitcher in MLB this year. By average exit velocity, by the percentage of contact that’s defined as hard-hit – however you want to look at it, he’s not succeeding by inducing Plesac-style weak contact. Success for McKenzie is a strikeout. If it’s in play, he’s just hoping it’s hit at someone.
Chris Flexen’s line last night was pretty good, but in an almost-unthinkable-in-2021 twist, he struck out nobody. After posting 21 Ks in his first four starts, covering 23 IP, he’s now struck a grand total of 2 batters in his last three starts (16 innings). The culprit seems to be his cutter, which looked like a swing-and-miss pitch, but has become merely a swing pitch. Batters swing at it nearly 60% of the time, and he’s able to keep it in the zone (and the middle of the zone) without paying too much of a price. But it’s functionally too similar to his fastball, which is ALSO put in play a lot, even despite a lower overall swing rate. I’m not sure what the remedy is, but he’s living dangerously by not being able to miss bats. It IS allowing him to post very low walk rates, and that was always the problem for him before figuring things out in South Korea, but we could use some more Ks. Maybe targeting the edges and off the plate areas with that cutter? Throwing more curves? This is not the biggest problem the M’s face, of course, and Flexen’s cutter being put in play isn’t that bad, as so many of them are ground balls. But it’s odd to see a pitcher look so different in May than he did in April.
1: Kelenic, LF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Lewis, CF
5: Marmolejos, 1B
6: Moore, 2B
7: Crawford, SS
8: Murphy, C
9: Walton, DH
SP: Sheffield
I know the M’s have been hit hard by injuries, but you bring up Donovan Walton to…uh…DH? Hmmm.
Tacoma lost at Salt Lake, 6-4. Darren McCaughan gave up 5 runs in 4, including HRs by Jo Adell and Anthony Bemboom. Dillon Thomas doubled for the R’s. Tonight, Hector Santiago takes the mound for the R’s. He’s another guy who could see time with the Mariners if the injury to Marco Gonzales persists or if there are further injuries. He’s also one of the only actual starting pitchers the R’s have.
Arkansas jumped out to a 7-2 lead and held on to beat Springfield 8-6. Penn Murfee got the win with 5 IP, and Keegan McGovern hit his second dinger of the year. Tonight, Devin Sweet takes on Domingo Robles of the Cardinals, a former Pirates prospect who pitched for West Virginia in 2018, its last year as a Pirates affiliate, and a year before Logan Gilbert and Jarred Kelenic would start their M’s career there.
Everett beat Tri-City 5-2 thanks to another HR from Julio Rodriguez, who had a slow first two games, and is now scaldingly hot in the high-A North (don’t call it the Northwest League). George Kirby was brilliant through 5 scoreless, striking out 8 *but* issuing the first walk of his professional career. He now actually has a K:BB ratio, and it is 37:1. Brandon Williamson starts tonight’s game.
Modesto easily rode out the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes by a score of 8-2. Taylor Dollard tossed 5 great innings, striking out 8, with no walks, 5 hits, and a run. Cade Marlowe homered and Noelvi Marte went 3 for 6. Victor Labrada, an international signing out of Cuba, started in CF in his first professional game for the M’s and went 2 for 3 with 2 walks. The 21-year old Labrada’s arrival moved Marlowe to LF in what’s probably going to be a very good defensive OF at the low-A level. Sam Carlson starts for Modesto tonight.
Game 39, Indians at Mariners
Chris Flexen vs. Aaron Civale, 7:10pm
So, that could’ve gone better. I’m a Mariner fan, so I wasn’t expecting any kind of story-book game, with Logan Gilbert pitching a shut-out or Kelenic walking it off. But man, getting no-hit into the 8th? I’ll admit that at the time I found it darkly hilarious, but it’s obviously not a great sign, and I feel we’re back to that spot we were in a few years ago, where it seemed like we were on no-hit watch twice a month.
Gilbert sat in the mid 90s, didn’t walk anyone, and looked good at times. He did give up some hard contact, including a HR on both a fastball and a slider. He doesn’t spin any of his pitches all that much, which may be why he’s more of a pitch to (ideally weak) contact guy, but you can see the makings of a really good starting pitcher here. I thought his slow curve was an interesting pitch, with over 20 mph of separation from his FB. He didn’t throw it much in the game I saw in Tacoma – just a couple, as he stuck with his slider (which is itself kind of slurvey).
Kelenic, as I kind of intimated in yesterday’s post, didn’t really have an ideal match-up to start, and I think you can say the same thing again tonight. It was a real contrast between the more old school Gilbert, who threw his heater 60+% of the time, and the pitching-backwards, junkballing Plesac, but clearly, Plesac had the entire team confused, not just Kelenic.
So, what do I mean about the match-up tonight? Well, tonight’s starter, Aaron Civale, takes Zach Plesac’s approach and spreads it over six pitches. I think the best way to think of him is as Cleveland’s Marco Gonzales. Civale has below-average velo; he’ll sit 91 with his four-seam and sinker. He then adds a hard cutter at 87, a slider at 83, a curve in the high-70s, and a good split-change at 85. Combining both of his fastballs, he throws less than 40% straight pitches. To lefties, it’s a blizzard of cutters and changes, and to righties, it’s sliders and curves. No pitch really dominates, so he’s perhaps harder to guess correctly on than Plesac.
But where Plesac wanted you to put the breaking stuff in play, and used his fastball just to remind you that he had it, Civale sees plenty of balls in play on his fastball (though, his four-seamer has the highest whiff rate of any of his pitches), and gets some ground balls, despite solid rise on the pitch. He doesn’t have the swing rates on his secondaries (if you can call them that) to generate the kind of contact that Plesac does, but he still gets swings on his split and slider. The split’s produces loads of grounders, which has helped him top the 50% GB% mark.
But also like Gonzales, this whole approach depends on precision and confusion. There’s just not enough pure stuff to allow him to pitch well on a night he just doesn’t have it. He gets fewer strikeouts than average, again similar to Gonzales (and Plesac!). A straight 91 mph fastball is a problem if it’s not set up and placed well. Thus, after an eye-opening debut in 2019, Civale suffered a bit in 2020 (though he did log the 6th most innings of anyone in MLB), with 11 HRs allowed and just a ton of base hits thanks to a high BABIP. Now he’s striking out even fewer hitters, but he’s 5-0 with a sparkling ERA (and a merely good FIP) – he’s generated weaker than average contact, and despite the fact no one’s swinging and missing, he’s been great thus far.
Yes, he’s a junkballer, but why’s a low-velo righty not a great match-up for Kelenic? Civale’s actually posted reverse splits for his career, with a higher K rate against lefties AND a much lower HR rate. Civale’s slider, a pitch that he likes to throw to righties, has had the worst results of any pitch in his arsenal. He sticks with the slider-y, but harder cutter to lefties, and it’s just more effective across the board. For Kelenic, the key is to find a four-seamer and jump on it. That’s probably true for everyone in the line-up, but righties at least don’t have to fear the breaking stuff.
1: Kelenic, LF
2: Haniger, DH
3: Seager, 3B
4: Lewis, CF
5: Crawford, SS
6: Moore, 2B
7: Marmolejos, 1B
8: Torrens, C
9: Haggerty, RF
SP: Flexen
Evan White’s been placed on the 10-day IL with a hip injury suffered last night. That and his slow start was discussed in a press conference with Jerry Dipoto yesterday, and is summarized in Ryan Divish’s fascinating article here. That article also discusses the M’s low vaccination rate, and their near-100% rate in Tacoma. Promoted players who’ve been vaccinated get to skip some steps, including a 48-hour quarantine if they’ve flown commercial, so there’s a real incentive to get jabbed. That said, the big club has plenty of incentives, too, such as being able to leave the team hotel once the club reaches the 85% vaccinated threshold, and they haven’t worked yet.
Donovan Walton’s been recalled from Tacoma to take White’s spot in the active roster. To cover for the pitching promotions from Tacoma, the M’s signed veteran SP David Huff to a minor league deal, and one-time M’s prospect Tyler Herb. Huff goes to Tacoma, Herb to Arkansas.
The minor league affiliates went 4-0 last night, with the big stars all having great outings.
Tacoma took a tense, 5-5 game in the 7th in Salt Lake and made it into a laugher by scoring 10 in the 7th inning. New guy Taylor Trammell homered in the inning, and went 4-5 on the night. Cal Raleigh hit two doubles. Tonight, Darren McCaughan, recently called up from Arkansas, takes the hill.
Arkansas beat Springfield 3-1 behind 5 solid innings from Ian McKinney. The 26-year old lefty gave up no runs on just 1 hit (but 4 walks) and struck out 9. That’s now 18 Ks for McKinney in 10 IP. Someone’s looking to make it to Tacoma. Penn Murfee starts for the Travs tonight.
Everett demolished Tri-City 15-1, as the Dust Devils simply had zero command on the night. The AquaSox got those 15 runs on just 10 hits, as they also drew *12* walks. They also hit 3 dingers, punctuated by Julio Rodriguez’s 430 foot shot. Emerson Hancock went 2 2/3 IP, giving a run with 4 Ks, and then Bernie Martinez went 3 1/3 scoreless. He’s pitched 6 2/3 IP this year, yielding one run. Tonight, it’s George Kirby’s second start of the year.
Modesto and Rancho Cucamonga played a good old fashioned Cal League slugfest, with the Nuts coming out on top, 9-8. The big story was Noelvi Marte hitting two home runs, and going 3-4 with a walk on the night. CF Cade Marlowe continued his hot streak with a HR of his own. The GA native is now hitting .309/.388/.458 in his MiLB career, covering about 250 at bats. Taylor Dollard gets the ball for the Nuts in tonight’s game.
Game 38, Indians at Mariners – This is the First Day of the Rest of Your Franchise
Logan Gilbert vs. Zach Plesac, 7:10pm
Today is the biggest – the most important, the most momentous – Mariners game in years. After waves of prospects that were supposed to lift the M’s from mediocrity failed, the Mariners bring up two of the best prospects they’ve had in years. OF Jarred Kelenic, a top-10 prospect in baseball, makes his MLB debut after a contentious battle with the front office over his service time. Logan Gilbert, a talented but relatively unknown from a non-power conference college, makes his debut as well, after tearing through the minors and showing poise and command beyond his years. For years, the M’s have told us to be patient, and that a franchise-altering wave was on its way. They had to do this because the vanguard of this baseballing revolution kept failing. Just a year ago, they were really marketing Shed Long, Evan White, and Mallex Smith. This franchise – and more importantly this fanbase – needs something to cheer about, and today, they’ve got it.
The way the M’s social media and marketing department effortlessly pivoted to full-on saturation coverage of today‘s game says a lot. You won’t find Dipoto’s interviews talking about Kelenic needing to hit lefties, or them needing to see X, Y, or Z from Gilbert. It’s all about letting fans see two of the big prospects the club has done so well at getting even casual fans excited about. I’m not being cynical: this is the *job* of social and marketing, and they’re doing it well. The club has talked about how important these players are to the idea of a contending Mariners squad, they *have* to let people know that they’re not in Arkansas, Modesto, Everett, or Tacoma anymore.
And yet I still can’t get Kevin Mather’s voice out of my head. The President of the team admitted that they offered Kelenic a deal that would’ve seen his MLB debut in *2020* but was ultimately rejected. Since that time, they kept him down to ensure another year of club control, but not enough to mess around with the Super 2 deadline. In doing so, they frittered away whatever leverage they had. That’s the entire point behind service time manipulation. If arbitration comes later, or if club control extends further, Kelenic’s long term salary obligations *will be* lower. It’s just that simple. If the M’s were to make another offer of a long-term contract, they would do so under that new framework that spells out exactly how many pre-arb, arb, and free agent seasons they’d be buying out. For the ability to get a slight discount on a seven years of production, or a slight discount on an extension, they’ve royally pissed off their best talent. Yes, Mariners, you successfully won yourself a slight gain in leverage at the cost of worse MLB team performance over parts of two seasons (which, you know, count) AND making Kelenic and his agent mad. Is…is that good?
Someone on Twitter asked me the perfectly rational question: isn’t this good for the M’s? Shouldn’t we WANT our team to secure that extra year? The tacit premise here is that the Oakland freaking A’s aren’t leaving money on the table, so the M’s would essentially be unilaterally disarming. There are two real responses here. The first was put brilliantly by Craig Goldstein at BP back in 2018 (free article) that argues that just because a team *can* do a thing doesn’t tell us much about whether or not they *should.* What the current system incentivizes in more ways than just this one is putting out a *worse product* for some greater good. You can argue that this is just one of many such things, like the amateur draft order, or waiver claims, etc., but it’s an important one in that it governs how a team treats its players. Fans, Goldstein suggests, don’t have to cheer on teams who treat their best young talents in a way that we wouldn’t like if it was done to us. Yes, the CBA allows it, but the assumptions around service time manipulations have become ossified into an expectation that they do it. The CBA itself says that teams may not manipulate service time, but arbitration failed to fault the Cubs for pretty obviously messing with Kris Bryant, so by the letter of the law, anything goes – any excuse is probably going to fly in court. This just doesn’t seem tenable, and doesn’t seem ethical.
The second reason is that it’s often self-defeating. I think at this point it’s a decent assumption that the M’s decades-long playoff streak is a drag on the team and fans. And even still, even with the playoffs expanded to below-.500 clubs last year, the M’s *would not* bring up players who could help them END that streak because of potential cost issues in like 2025. Really think about that. Is that what being a fan of a team is about? Are…are we okay with that? We watched Philip Ervin and Jose Marmolejos play OF for a contending team while Gilbert and Kelenic chilled in T-Town. Is that what we signed up for? Can we even say it made a playoff run more likely in 2027-8? I think it’s really hard to say. I’m pretty sure it impacted 2020, though. And it did so while angering the very player they want to negotiate with. I am really excited these two are making their debuts, and I swear I will get off my soapbox soon, but I think we can’t unlearn what Kevin Mather taught us, and thinking that everything changed when he resigned is insane.
Are Kelenic and Gilbert likely to struggle? I don’t anticipate it. This BP article from Jarrett Seidler explains why, but in Kelenic, the M’s took one of the most polished HS bats in years, and added some oomph to his picture-perfect swing. They’ve got a player who’s had some issues with swing-and-mix, but has really improved in that regard, most noticeably in the Cactus League. He’s grown accustomed to handling lefties, and as Seidler says, he doesn’t get enough credit for his speed and baserunning (that was on display when I saw him steal 2nd off of lefty MacKenzie Gore, who then couldn’t stop throwing to 1st when Kelenic got on base again). I know that Dustin Ackley was seen as a polished bat too, but fans forget just how much of a (surprising) struggle Ackley had at times. He didn’t hit all that well in AA, and was streaky in AAA (he never looked like a sure-fire hitter to me). Kelenic isn’t that and while it’s asking too much for Kelenic to anchor the line-up starting in a few hours, I’m just less concerned about him than any M’s prospect since…I’m not really sure who.
Gilbert, too, doesn’t have to do too much, and will have his innings managed this year (110 or so) and pitches managed tonight (80-85), but that’s where his command comes in. He needed less than 70 to get through 5 in Tacoma, and yes, everything’s going to be much tougher, but avoiding walks and letting better defenders make plays for him is a good plan, and which is a heck of a lot better to ask of your young SP than requiring dominance and long outings. I was insanely hyped for Taijuan Walker’s M’s debut years ago, and intrigued by James Paxton’s. I think my expectations for Gilbert are sort of in that vein. Note that while both Walker/Paxton showed flashes early, and had some prospect hype, they weren’t dominant from the get go. I don’t think Gilbert’s an ace right now, but he will assuredly help this beleaguered rotation.
Also coming up is SP/RP/swingman Paul Sewald, another ex-Met like Chris Flexen. To make room, the M’s optioned Taylor Trammell, Aaron Fletcher and Wyatt Mills to Tacoma, transferred Nick Margevicius and Ljay Newsome to the 60-day dl, and, somewhat sadly, DFA’d all-around good guy Braden Bishop, who simply never hit enough in his M’s or really Rainiers tenure. I hope he can stick around, and that he can work with some coaches who can unlock something in his swing.
So who’s Kelenic going to be facing in his first game? Another in Cleveland’s assembly line of unheralded pitching prospects. Zach Plesac was a 12th round pick and had great success in his first call-up in 2019, and then looked brilliant in the short season last year. He’s holding his own this year, but he’s not been exactly dominant. He limits walks and hard contact, but doesn’t miss as many bats as you might expect, and perhaps doesn’t pitch the way you’d expect.
He’s got a league-average FB velocity of 93, and uses it up in the zone to get whiffs on occasion. But it’s not his primary pitch at all. To lefties, he pitches off of his change-up that’s thrown pretty firmly at 86 or so. To righties, his primary offering is a hard slider at 87. The fastball is used as a change-of-pace, and he can mix in a curve as well. This approach is something that Matthew Trueblood talked about the other day re: Yu Darvish, a “pitching backwards” approach that essentially makes his four-seamer a 96 mph change-up.
That’s what Plesac’s doing, too, and it’s fascinating to see what he’s attempting. Plesac’s change and slider are not really intended to be swing and miss pitches, even though that’s kind of what we think of when we think of them. Plesac could theoretically get more whiffs if he could take some velo OFF of his change. But I’m not sure that’s what he wants: Plesac’s change and slider are put into play at *double* the rate of his fastball. For most pitchers, you’d expect the opposite, with “chase” sliders thrown way outside, or backdooring opposite-handed batters. But Plesac understands that the wOBA on contact (wOBACON) for fastballs this year is .382. For off-speed pitches, it’s just .321 and that’s *despite* the fact that they’re most often thrown to batters who have the platoon advantage. For sliders? .356; worse than cambios, but still way lower than heaters. So yes, Kelenic gets to open against a righty starter, but he’s going to face an approach he may not have seen much of.
1: Kelenic, LF woooooo
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Lewis, CF
5: France, DH
6: Crawford, SS
7: Torrens, C
8: Moore, 2B
9: White, 1B
SP: GILBERT woooo
The M’s optioned Taylor Trammell, who could use more PAs than will be available in Seattle with Kelenic around. Why not option Evan White? Because he signed an extension, the math around his service time no longer applies, and the M’s face a completely different set of incentives than they do with Kelenic/Trammell. Am I saying that money and not necessarily what’s best for player development is driving this? Not exactly, but without the added incentive of service time, the M’s may just want to keep White with the specific coaches they want. That *could* make sense, but I think it gives short shrift to the environment in which that coaching and development takes place. It’s been a year plus, and I don’t think there’s enough evidence of improvement, which would ideally prompt a re-think. Whoops, am I back on the soap box? I mean, it was just sitting there unused….
The Rainiers are back in action in Salt Lake today with something of an understaffed group of pitchers.
Ian McKinney starts for Arkansas today, who doubled up on Springfield last night 4-2. Jake Scheiner hit his third HR of the year.
Everett, like Tacoma, is playing a ton of extra-inning games, and they won last night’s game in walk-off fashion in the 10th. Kaden Polcovich homered for the Frogs, and Jack Larson plated Austin Shenton with the winning run. Julio Rodriguez went 1-4 with a walk.
Modesto blanked Rancho Cucamonga 4-0 behind a great start from Connor Phillips who sat in the mid-90s, striking out 7 in 5 scoreless innings. Noelvi Marte had two hits.
Game 37, Mariners at Dodgers – Last Day of the Old M’s
Justin Dunn vs. Julio Urias, 7:10pm
The M’s lost late last night, thanks to a Rafael Montero implosion, but M’s fans are pretty happy today. A day after learning that Jarred Kelenic would arrive in Seattle on Thursday, today brought the somewhat surprising news of who’d be the M’s starting pitcher that day: Logan Gilbert. Ryan Divish had an article at the Times speculating about a promotion for Gilbert, as the M’s didn’t have a starter named for *Friday’s* game, and neither did the Rainiers. Friday would’ve been Gilbert’s turn in Tacoma’s rotation, but it sounds like the M’s will move him up a day and have him start on Thursday.
As such, tonight’s game is the last one we’ll see with the transitional roster. We’ll have to see what the corresponding moves will be – if Taylor Trammell might be sent down, for example. The M’s were clearly stretched at pitcher, with Paxton out for a year plus, and then with Nick Margevicius, Marco Gonzales, and now Ljay Newsome injured. Gilbert gives the M’s rotation a real boost. He’s polished for a guy making his debut, and has the velocity to pitch out of jams. He really should be a mainstay in the group for years, but the M’s will want to carefully manage his workload this year. In a normal year, he could end up heading back to Tacoma at times, but I think a combination of need and effectiveness will tie the M’s hands there.
Tonight’s game features Justin Dunn, attempting to maintain his ridiculous BABIP, against Julio Urias, who authored the best start of his career against Seattle in April. The M’s could use some HRs, and Dodger stadium is clearly no longer a huge HR-suppressing park. But Seattle’s struggling a bit against lefties like Urias – their K rate is approaching 30% against southpaws, as a couple of their big righties (France and White) somewhat strangely hit worse against lefties.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: France, 2B
6: Murphy, C
7: Moore, LF
8: White, 1B
9: Dunn, SP
The Rainiers are off today, but they lost the final game of their opening series last night 8-2 in 10 innings. Yes, the R’s and Chihuahuas saw three of their first six games go to extras. Last night saw El Paso put up 7 in the 10th to put it out of reach. It was a bullpen day again yesterday, as the R’s have had an influx of new free agent relievers, and really don’t have as much of a rotation. Brady Lail started, but the best line was turned in by former A’s reliever Ryan Dull, who’s now pitched 4 IP without allowing a run, and striking out 6. Jarred Kelenic went 1-5 in his last game with the team, and C Jose Godoy homered.
Mentioned Arkansas’ win over Springfield yesterday, and today, Adam Hill takes the mound for Arkansas tonight.
Everett demolished the Tri-City Dust Devils 13-3 behind a three-hit night from Julio Rodriguez. Julio notched his first HR in the win. That was impressive, but the line of the night might be Matt Brash’s, who went the final 4 innings, giving up no runs on one hit, 3 walks, and 10 strikeouts. Tonight, Levi Stoudt’s on the mound for the Frogs.
Rancho Cucamongo beat Modesto 6-2. Noelvi Marte got a hit. Connor Phillips starts for the Nuts tonight.
Game 36, Mariners at Dodgers – M’s Soon To Be Kelenecized
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Walker Buehler, 7:10pm
Yes, the M’s and Dodgers enter play tonight with identical 18-17 records, just as we assumed when the season started. That the M’s are in this position is nothing short of miraculous, given the fact that half of their everyday line-up is hitting below .160 and their rotation’s been hit by both opposing batters and injuries. For the Dodgers, this record is perhaps even more miraculous, given the talk about the club taking aim at the all-time wins-in-a-season record. The M’s are at 18-17 despite having the 21st-ranked pitching staff and the 27th-best position players. The Dodgers are at 18-17 despite having the best position players by WAR in MLB and the 5th-best staff. Baseball!
Despite racking up hits in Texas at a heretofore unfathomable clip (32 in 3 days!), the M’s lost the series. Apparently that was the trigger to do something they probably should’ve done before: finally decide to call up Jarred Kelenic. Now, he’s not up yet, but he’ll apparently play by this Thursday, meaning after this two-game set in LA. The M’s wanted to wait on Kelenic, they said, so that they could see him in the minors, and of course the MiLB season didn’t start until May, and they said they wanted to see him against left-handed pitching, and he destroyed the lefties AAA-West set before him. *Every* ridiculous statement about “development” was kind of insulting to hear, given that we all know he would’ve been up with the team last year if he’d signed a long-term deal. It was worse when the M’s decided the best developmental environment for Evan White, say, was MLB despite his bat looking…well, like it could use some exposure to AAA lefties. It’s all just kind of ridiculous.
Kelenic made it look too easy in his week in AAA (he’s starting tonight, so if you’re in the South Sound, go catch the Rainiers tonight, as it’s probably the last chance you’ve got to see him), and forced the team’s hand. He hit in every game, getting two hits in four games, and of course that season-opening 2 HR game. You can’t look at that, and then look at the bottom of the M’s line-up and say that you care about winning OR development. It is true that very few HS-drafted players have made the majors with so few minor league at-bats, but it is equally true that very few MLB teams have ever hit .210 *after a hot streak pulled them up from .201.* Also, there was a pandemic! We’re all dealing with some unprecedented stuff here. Bringing in a great hitter to a team that struggles with hitting doesn’t seem like it’s all that crazy.
So we’ll get Kelenic in a few days, but for now, the M’s have to deal with Walker Buehler. The hard-throwing righty always looks like a threat to become a 4-Cy Youngs in 6 years kind of ace, but it hasn’t quite happened yet. He’s had one of the better fastballs in the game, sitting around 96 with lots of spin, and he’s able to locate it, which has helped him post very low walk rates. In 2019, he gave up some HRs on the pitch, but had great results overall – kind of a Gerrit Cole situation. But last year, he didn’t yield a single one on his heater. That’s changed a bit this year, as hitters are all of the sudden hitting that heater quite well.
Part of it must be related to a velo drop: Buehler sat at nearly 97 last year, but is down to about 95 now. But part of it may be due to lefties figuring out how to attack him. Buehler’s been dominant against lefties since he came in the league, running reverse splits in fact. This year, they’ve snapped back hard, and lefties are hitting him well (while righties still struggle). He’s never had much of a change up, and targets lefties with the four-seam, a cutter at 91-92, and his big 12-6 curve. This year, lefties are hitting that fastball well. That’s meant a bit of a reversion in the other thing that’s made Buehler so tough: his career BABIP-against is .270, and he had a BABIP under .200 last year; that’s Justin Dunn-esque. But it was always driven in part by the fact that people put the ball in play comparatively weakly against him, but this year, all of his quality-of-contact measures have plummeted. He’s getting hit hard, and while BABIP is down overall and he plays in a decent park for pitchers, it’s something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: France, 2B
6: Torrens, C
7: Moore, LF
8: White, 1B
9: Kikuchi, SP
Tacoma walked off El Paso 3-2 last night on a single from Jack Reinheimer. It was a bullpen day for the R’s, so Jimmy Yacabonis started it, and Justin Grimm pitched the 9th/10th for the win. Kelenic had just one hit on the day, the slacker. Brady Lail’s on the hill for Tacoma tonight in the last game of the 6-game set.
Arkansas, like everyone not in the AAA-West, was off yesterday, but have already won today: they beat the Springfield Cardinals 9-2 behind two hits from four different Travs, including Jordan Cowan, who doubled and walked.
Everett starts a series with the Tri-City Dust Devils tonight – it’s opening night in Everett! 2019 draftee Tim Elliot starts, coming off a great relief outing that saw him go 3 2/3 IP, giving up just one run on one hit (a dinger) and striking out 8. That’s how to get noticed on an already-loaded staff.
Modesto starts a series at Rancho Cucamonga tonight with opening day starter Josias de los Santos on the hill.
Game 35, Mariners at Rangers
Justus Sheffield vs. Dane Dunning, 11:35am
Yesterday’s game was, in one sense, a painful loss – a series of blown leads, the bullpen surrendering critical runs, a potential tying run thrown out at the plate – but, perhaps, an encouraging one. The stirrings of life from the bottom of the order are growing, and now even Evan White looks a bit better. Dylan Moore isn’t an automatic out. JP Crawford is officially “hot,” and has been rewarded with his old spot in the line-up: leading off. I’ve been critical of this line-up’s construction, and have my doubts about the long-term viability of several of its members’ futures. But I have to say: this team has been really fun to watch. They keep delivering more entertaining games than I think they “should” or whatever, and at some point, I just have to admit that it’s a part of their make-up. Does it herald better things than projections would indicate? I dunno, but who cares? In a season in which no one – not even the front office – really expects to or is attempting to contend, the *best* outcome here is a team that’s fun to watch compete and develop. Perhaps it helps when they’re away from T-Mobile, where offense goes to die, but they’re doing just that.
Today’s opposing starter, Dane Dunning, was the primary return in the Lance Lynn deal. The former White Sox prospect doesn’t have eye-popping stuff; he sits at 90mph with his sinker, and mixes in a slider, a cutter, and a change. He has a rarely-used curve, but he’s primarily a four-pitch righty. Texas appears to have made some minor tweaks, because his slider’s movement is a bit different this year – more vertical, more drop, as well as more glove-side break. The differences aren’t major, and may be influenced by a tiny drop in velo (he’s throwing a bit slower with all of his pitches this year, which is probably just due to the fact that it’s April/May).
They also told him to ditch his four-seam, a pitch he threw around 10% of the time last year. As a guy who throws a sinker/slider combo most of the time, you’d figure Dunning would have poor splits – especially without top-shelf velocity to overpower lefties. But it’s not so: Dunning’s been excellent against lefties this year, and while his career splits show lefties hitting a tiny bit better than righties, they’ve posted a sub-.300 wOBA. The key is Dunning’s effective change-up, a pitch at around 84 that mimics the movement of his sinker. Again, if I was designing a pitch on a computer, I’m not sure I’d *want* a cambio with similar vertical movement to your fastball, and I’d probably increase the velocity gap between the two. But Dunning’s change works just fine for him, and it’s helped him post similar K rates to lefties and righties alike. Yes, a lot of this is similar to what I mentioned when the M’s faced John Means, and that’s…worrying, but in this case I don’t think they’re all that similar to batters, just given how different both pitchers fastballs are. Still, the M’s haven’t been great against change-ups of any kind.
Similar to Kohei Arihara, Dunning has had a great stretch of performance in April, and then a bit of a skid in his last three games. Nothing brutal like Arihara’s, but noticeable after a brilliant start to the year.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, DH
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Moore, 2B
6: Marmolejos, RF
7: Murphy, C
8: White, 1B
9: Trammell, LF
SP: Sheffield
Tacoma beat up on El Paso, 9-4. New Rainier/new-to-the-M’s-org Hector Santiago started and went 4 scoreless with 7 Ks. He’s a great depth pick-up, and could have some value to the big club later on. As a pitcher who had some success, but was undone by HR trouble, he might be playable again in a league/park without a supercharged baseball. Another recent pick up, 29 year old Jaime Schultz, got the win in relief. Dillon Thomas homered for the R’s.
The Arkansas Travelers lost a pitchers duel yesterday to NW Arkansas. Devin Sweet was effectively wild, mixing in 6 walks with 7 Ks in 3 2/3 scoreless. The game was scoreless into the bottom of the 7th, when the Travs scored 3. But the Naturals scored 3 in the top of the 8th, and then 3 more in the 9th to win it. Adam Hall, a Mets draft pick who was traded to Milwaukee, and then traded to Seattle for Omar Narvaez, makes his season debut today.
Everett blanked Hillsboro 3-0, behind a dominant start from Brandon Williamson. The 2019 2nd round lefty struck out 9 in 4 innings, giving up just 2 hits, no walks, and no runs. The Frogs’ pen racked up another 9 K’s in the remaining 5 innings. Juan Then should start today; yes, I said that yesterday, too.
Modesto beat Stockton 5-2, as Sam Carlson pitched well – he struck out 7, giving up an unearned run on 2 hits and a walk. Noelvi Marte has 2 hits at the top of the line-up. Damon Casetta-Stubbs starts for the Nuts today.
Game 34, Mariners at Rangers
Erik Swanson vs. Kohei Arihara, 4:05pm
The M’s picked up a big win yesterday in perhaps the most unlikeliest of ways. No, the whole bullpen-being-a-fortress thing wasn’t new, but it was appreciated, especially after Chris Flexen didn’t have his best stuff. No, the M’s won a one-run game in large part due to a home run from JP Crawford. It was his first of the year, and I had said on twitter a few weeks ago that I simply couldn’t envision it anymore. You can go back and look at HRs he hit in his first few months with the M’s, and look at some long HRs he hit with the Phillies, but his approach has altered dramatically since then. It’s great to know he can still get into a pitch, and it’s more signs of life from the lower part of the order. The same could be said for Dylan Moore’s wall-scraping two-run shot.
Of course, the more the M’s look like a middle-of-the-road team on the road, the more it makes you wonder how much of their offensive woes are caused by T-Mobile park. The M’s focus on high fastballs, and look, they’re not great on high fastballs. But they rank 19th in the game – just the wrong side of average. If they hit them the way Toronto or even Baltimore (?) does, they’d be scoring more runs, but high fastballs are hard to hit. The big problem is bendy stuff. And because we’ve learned so much about how location and weather conditions impact not only the ball’s flight off the bat, but it’s flight on the way to the bat, I wonder if there’s something either meteorologically or visually off with T-Mobile.
The M’s looked completely lost against John Means the other day, but they’ve still hit him harder than anyone else has – I’d be the first to admit Means had better stuff in Seattle, but that’s not the only variable at play, and it may not even be the most important. This’ll be interesting to watch, and as I said the other day, it makes you not only wonder if we’ve missed some of the key components of what gets lumped into a “park factor.” Or maybe another way of saying it is: the changes to the ball itself and how the ball gets stored have shown us that there’s so much more to the venues that host MLB games. There’s so many factors swirling around that get averaged into a declaration that this place is a hitter’s haven, and this one isn’t. It also makes me wonder why MLB has gone to humidors in phases. Starting in Colorado may have made sense, but it seems like it may be having a marked impact in places like Seattle, Boston, and Citi Field in New York. Not only through the direct effects, but in how they interact with a slightly deadened ball. That seems like something you’d want to try to apply equally. I often wonder if you tweaked enough of these tiny dials, from the batter’s eye to the ball to the game time temperature, if you could make Evan White a legitimately good hitter. Forget park factors, how much of player development is the salubrious setting of these various environmental and site-specific dials?
Today, the M’s get a look at Kohei Arihara, the Japanese hurler who’s in his first season in MLB. He came over with a small fraction of the fanfare of Yu Darvish’s arrival in Texas, and to be fair, has had kind of a rough introduction. But like Darvish, he’s giving opposing hitters a *lot* to think about. According to his BrooksBaseball page (now updated for 2021, woooo), he’s throwing *seven* pitches this year. The kind of freak-outs we had about Darvish’s broad arsenal don’t happen as much nowadays (we get used to superhuman stuff too quickly, I think), but Arihara’s approach is very Darvish-like. He’s got a four-seam and sinker at 90-92, a cutter/slider/curve that walk down the velo scale from 88 to 82 to 74, and two change-ups – a traditional change with armside run, and a splitter with more vertical movement.
He started the season fairly well, and had a two-game stretch in mid-April in which he threw 11+ innings with no runs allowed, 2 walks, and 11 Ks. But since then, he’s lost it, throwing only 4 2/3 IP in two games, giving up 11 runs on 10 hits, 6 walks and 1 strikeout. We’ll see which version of Arihara we see today.
Erik Swanson gets the start today in what seems like it’ll be a bullpen day. There was a rumor that Robert Dugger may get the bulk of the innings when Swanson’s done. Swanson’s start has been a bit better than last year, when he simply couldn’t get anyone out or keep the ball in the park. All of this is small sample size, but he was so *consistently* bad last year, it made you wonder if he was tipping pitches. Hopefully, the M’s have that straightened out, and a reliever capable of multiple innings throwing 95-96 with a good slider should still have some success in this league.
1: Haniger, RF
2: Lewis, CF
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, DH
5: Crawford, SS
6: Torrens, C
7: Moore, 2B
8: White, 1B
9: Haggerty, LF
SP: Swanson
I caught the Rainiers/Chihuahua prospect-topia game last night at Cheney. Logan Gilbert outdueled MacKenzie Gore in what turned out to be an 8-2 R’s win. Gilbert was perfect through 2, but gave up a couple of singles to start the third, and El Paso pushed a run past on a safety squeeze when Cal Raleigh couldn’t quite hold the throw from Jantzen Witte at 3B. The R’s were patient against Gore, who went to a ton of 3 ball counts, and walked a few, including Jarred Kelenic. This pushed his pitch count up, but through 3, he had the lead. It all kind of fell apart for Gore in the 5th, when he followed the walk to Kelenic by hitting Braden Bishop, and then giving up a 2R double to Donovan Walton. He was charged with another run after a sac fly brought Walton home.
Gore sat in the low 90s, but touched 95 multiple times in the early going. He was more consistently 91-93 in the 4th/5th, and ultimately threw 94 pitches through 4+ innings. Gilbert hit 96 in the early going, but settled in around 94, and was ruthlessly efficient. He threw 5 IP with just the one run, using 67 pitches to get 5 Ks and no walks. He allowed contact, but almost none of it was all that hard. Gore nearly allowed a HR to Cal Raleigh, who hit the very top of the wall in left-center, and had baserunners on all the time, but to his credit, was able to work around it. Gore isn’t overpowering, but there’s something tricky about has fastball – it looked considerably faster than the gun. Still, you couldn’t ask for more: Gilbert looked like a polished, veteran pro against a good El Paso team. Jarred Kelenic faced perhaps the toughest lefty in the minors, and singled twice and walked. The R’s were patient, and Cal Raleigh worked well with Gilbert.
Logan Gilbert
MacKenzie Gore’s Mark-Langston-ish wind-up. [/caption]
Cal Raleigh
The R’s are back at it tonight in Tacoma, and you can get a vaccine in the R-Bar. Game starts at 5:05.
Arkansas posted a rain-shorted 4-0 win in 5 IP. Penn Murfee started and went 3 2/3 with 6 Ks, and Reid Morgan went the rest of the way. Devin Sweet starts for Arkansas tonight.
Everett lost to Hillsboro 7-2 after an off game from George Kirby. He gave up 3 runs on 6 hits, no walks and 4 Ks through 3 2/3. Juan Then makes his 2021 debut tonight for the Frogs in Hillsboro.
Modesto beat Stockton 2-1, as Taylor Dollard’s M’s debut couldn’t have gone better. The Cal Poly product struck out 10 in 4 scoreless, walkless innings; he gave up just 2 hits. The Ports’ Jake Walkinshaw was also scoreless through 5, but the Nuts scored a run in the 6th and another in the 8th to win it. Sam Carlson makes his long-awaited low-A debut tonight. The former 2nd round pick in 2017 threw 3 IP in the AZL after being drafted, and hasn’t thrown a pitch since, sidelined with TJ and other ailments. Hopefully, that’s all in the past.
Game 33, Mariners at Rangers – Let’s Get Some Hits
Chris Flexen vs. Mike Foltynewicz, 5:05pm
After being no-hit/near-perfecto’d by John Means, the Mariners head to Arlington to visit Globe Life Field and the Rangers. The M’s team batting average now stands at .201, lowest in the game. Even the lowly, rebuilding Rangers – whose best player is average-challenged Joey Gallo – are up at .236, which in 2021 makes them above average. Texas is no one’s idea of a *good* offense, but with a decent BABIP countering their strikeout-prone ways, they’re avoiding the trap that the M’s, Indians, and Tigers find themselves in.
Part of the reason that Texas has been able to out-hit what I would’ve expected include a rebound from Willie Calhoun, a former top prospect who nearly washed out after following up a hopeful 2019 season by cratering in 2020. New 1B Nate Lowe shook off a slow start and is hitting well, as is Nick Solak. Glove first 3B/SS/C/Whatever you need Isiah Kiner-Falefa is hitting pretty well, too. Sure, their park is a bit better for offense than T-Mobile, but a big part of this is the guys the Rangers counted on stepping up, and that includes Gallo, whose production faltered nearly as much as Calhoun’s last year.
Those awful years from Gallo, Calhoun, and Solak last year may have made the Rangers look a bit more hapless than they actually are. With each of them bouncing back, they’re a middle-of-the-road offense that just needs their pitching to come around. That hasn’t happened yet, as they traded their big stars, Lance Lynn and Mike Minor, and scooped up another batch of veteran underachievers to see if they can’t work the same magic again. Mike Foltynewicz is just such a buy-low bet. Folty was oriignally a first-round pick of the Astros back in 2010, and rose quickly thanks to serious velocity and a slider/change/curve mix. Sitting 97 at times, he still couldn’t quite put it all together, and was traded to the Braves in 2015. He pitched in Atlanta for years after the deal, underachieving a bit in 2015-17, but putting together a brilliant 2018 campaign that looked like a real breakout. As a fly-ball guy, he’s always had issues with HRs, but his best velocity coupled with a reduction in HR/FB (thanks in part to the deadened baseball) and an increase in GB% all helped to produce an ERA of 2.85 and a FIP of 3.20 in 183 IP. Sadly for Folty, it couldn’t last. Injuries and the re-juiced baseball sunk his 2019, and a dead arm and no control meant he threw less than 4 IP last year before the Braves cut him loose.
The velo’s back to 94-95 on his four-seam and sinker, and he’s still got a change/slider pair that break in different directions, but share an 85-86mph velo. His curve, which he’s using more of in the early going, is 79-80. The bouts of wildness that occasionally marred his early years haven’t shown up this year, but the old trouble with the long ball definitely has. He’s already yielded 9 in 33 1/3 IP. Lefties fare pretty well against the right-handed Foltynewicz, so this is a better match-up for Kyle Seager.
The buy-low plan seems to be working ok for Folty, but it’s doing quite well with Kyle Gibson, who came to Texas last year after seven years in Minnesota. Their other big acquisition is former White Sox prospect Dane Dunning, whom they got for Lance Lynn. The common thread of nearly everyone we’ve talked about here? They were developed elsewhere. Calhoun was a Dodger farmhand, Solak and Lowe were with the Rays. Their pitchers are often vets from other orgs who’ve hit free agency at just the wrong time. Their closer is Ian Kennedy..yes, THAT Ian Kennedy, the 36 year old former Yankee/Padre/Royal starter who switched to the pen in 2019. A team that rose to prominence with a home-grown core and relentless work in international free agency is now the team of veteran pitchers and poached prospects from other teams. Perhaps that’s why Jon Daniels turned over day-to-day management of the club to new GM Chris Young, the former M’s and Royals starter.
1: Haniger, RF
2: Lewis, CF
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, DH
5: Crawford, SS
6: Moore, 2B
7: Murphy, C
8: White, 1B
9: Trammell, LF
SP: Flexen
The story in the minors yesterday was Jarred Kelenic’s electrifying Tacoma debut in which he hit two HRs, re-igniting the debate over when he’ll be promoted. It’s never really been a question of his status as one of the best hitters on the club, a bar that’s a bit low at the moment. He would’ve been up a year ago had he signed the long-term contract the M’s put in front of him. But if the M’s average stays around .200, and if Kelenic continues this start, he’ll be up very, very quickly. One of his HRs came off of a lefty, and one off of a righty last night. Tacoma lost the game in extras, but not before Cal Raleigh hit his first AAA HR with the team down 2 and with 2 outs in the 11th.
Tonight, the Rainiers start Logan Gilbert against El Paso, and I’m going to go check him out, along with Kelenic, of course. The R’s face MacKenzie Gore, MLB’s #6 overall prospect – that’s the top pitching prospect in the game. The game starts at 7:05, and if you’re in the South Sound, this is one to catch.
Arkansas got their first win with a late comeback off of NW Arkansas. Jake Scheiner hit his second dinger of the year. Penn Murfee takes the hill for the Travs tonight against Stephen Woods Jr. of the Naturals.
High-A Everett won in a laugher yesterday, beating Hillsboro 12-1. Julio Rodriguez had two hits and two walks, Austin Shenton hit two doubles, and Zach deLoach continued his hot start with two hits as well. Emerson Hancock was untouchable for 2 IP, striking out 3, and Evan Johnson struck out 6 in 2 2/3 IP. George Kirby starts tonight for the AquaSox.
Low-A Modesto squeaked past Stockton 2-1, with 2019 draft pick Adam Macko going 4 scoreless with 7 Ks. Noelvi Marte got both RBIs. 2020 draft pick Taylor Dollard (5th round) starts tonight for the Nuts.
Tacoma Rainiers Opening Night, 2021: Welcome Back to R Town
Paul Sewald vs. TBD, 7:05pm
One of my favorite days of the year is back, after skipping 2020 (wish I could’ve done that) – it’s Opening Night for the Tacoma Rainiers. After an odd two-day delay due to AAA West’s scheduled off day, the R’s are ready to kick off 2021 tonight from Cheney Stadium. JY’s given you a run-down on the club, so I’ll get to the line-up and talk about potential series to come catch a game and which prospects might be playing.
Typically, we talk about prospects who might move UP from lower levels, but this year especially, we might need to spend some time talking about prospects moving back down. I know John Means was on fire yesterday, and would’ve no-hit (or close to it) some of the better line-ups in MLB. But an image I’ll remember was Evan White’s obvious frustration after his third strikeout. Means utterly befuddled White, striking him out all three times, and while he’s been remarkably even-keeled throughout his struggles, White looked pretty frustrated on the last one. He’s now 0 for his last 23 with 8 Ks and no walks, and his stats have tumbled below the low bar he set in 2020. The AAA season couldn’t get here fast enough: the M’s *need* a local, high-level, development focused place to send someone like White, and potentially Taylor Trammell, who’s striking out a ton and, even worse, not playing much right now.
The pandemic has put everyone in a tough spot, but not having a minor league season last year has had some important knock-on effects. I suspect even White would’ve appreciated the opportunity to work on things in the high-minors, and you have to think the M’s would’ve wanted that too. I don’t really think “rushing” a prospect really does lasting damage; I’d still argue that Mike Zunino’s problems both here and in Tampa weren’t the result of calling him up initially, but just how the league adjusted to him. I don’t think the M’s were wrong to start White in the league last year, and it’s hard to blame them when there was really nowhere to send him for meaningful ABs. But now that they DO have the opportunity, they absolutely need to use it. I’ve said before that the Jon Singleton comps are almost too on-the-nose, and well, Singleton followed up his poor rookie year with a disastrous second campaign, and never pulled out of that tailspin. The M’s know White’s better than he’s shown, but absolutely have to help him now.
The focus in Tacoma is rightly on the two uber-prospects who will soon be joining the big club: Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert. I wondered if the M’s would bring up Kelenic before AAA started, as the club isn’t hitting at all, and because they’ve safely moved past the date that would give the team another year of club control. At this point, though, the team may see how he looks and might avoid Kelenic qualifying for Super 2 status. To be clear: all of this is gross, and the sort of thing they swore they wouldn’t do after Kevin Mather’s “you’re not recording this, right?” zoom breakfast. Gilbert’s timeline may have accelerated too following injuries to James Paxton and Nick Margevicius.
So if you’d like to catch those two, get to Tacoma quickly. Gilbert will start tomorrow, in a game that could feature two of the better SP prospects in the game, if MacKenzie Gore starts for the Chihuahuas. Gore’s a lefty, and would give Kelenic one of the tougher match-ups he’ll see at this level. Both Gilbert and Kelenic can get some coaching from brand new manager, and member of the 2019 Rainiers, Kris Negron. Another former Rainier, Eric Young Jr., is also on the staff, helping out hitting coach Roy Howell (who managed the R’s back in 2014). The pitching coach is Rob Marcello, who’s been in the org for only a few years, and did great work with Modesto (where he coached Logan Gilbert) in 2019. It’s nice to see the M’s easing Gilbert’s transition by bringing his High-A pitching coach *and* catcher in Cal Raleigh. The mix of the still-young Marcello and the baseball lifer Howell seems like a good one. Now that Tacoma’s up and running, they could be called upon to help White and Trammell and help some of the older guys like Braden Bishop get over the AAA-MLB hump.
The R’s open up tonight against the San Diego Padres affiliate, El Paso. Gore is obviously the biggest prospect name of what’s a very deep system even after the flurry of trades that dominated the last hot stove league. The Chihuahuas also boast catcher Luis Campusano, the #3 prospect, and OF Tucupita Marcano, #6 in SD’s system. They’ve got ex-Rainiers in OF John Andreoli and RP Parker Markel, and though he’s hurt to start the year, one of the two Brady Feigl‘s.
The Round Rock Express, the Rangers’ AAA affiliate, hit Tacoma on May 20th for a six-game set. This is probably a good time to mention that the AAA West schedule features six-game series with off days on Wednesday, so series start on Thursdays and end on Tuesdays. Texas has recently called up some of their big prospects, including C Jonah Heim, after losing #2 prospect Sam Huff to injury. That said, former #1 prospect, CF Leody Taveras, is back with Round Rock after a brutal start to the season in Arlington. The big pitching prospects aren’t quite at AAA yet, but they have familiar faces in Nick Vincent and Sam Gaviglio.
In early June, the R’s welcome the Salt Lake Bees, the long-time affiliate of the LA Angels. The club has one of the better prospects around in Jo Adell, but the shine is off of him a bit after perhaps a worse MLB debut than White’s last year. He’s still a hyper-talented guy I saw homer twice in a rained-out game at Cheney in 2019, but he’s got to work on making more contact. The Angels top pitching prospect, Reid Detmers, could be with the club by June, but they begin the year with a collection of veterans M’s fans will remember like Jaime Barria, Noe Ramirez, and reliever James Hoyt. They also have Torii Hunter, Jr. if you like feeling old, and Jon Jay, who is presumably also feeling old, whose career overlapped for many years with Hunter’s dad.
The Sacramento RiverCats, the Giants’ affiliate, come through next, beginning on June 10th. They’re headlined by the Giants’ #2 prospect, and former Georgia Tech catcher, Joey Bart. One of the best stories in MiLB, RF Drew Robinson, starts the year with the club, too. The former Rangers OF survived a suicide attempt in 2020 that resulted in Robinson losing an eye, but he’s trained hard and is excited to get back on the field. If you haven’t yet, please read about Robinson in this jaw-dropping story from Jeff Passan. The familiar face to R’s/M’s fans is RP Dominic Leone, and wonderfully-named C Chadwick Tromp backs up Bart.
July begins with a visit from the Reno Aces, the Diamondbacks’ affiliate. The Aces have #7 D-backs prospect in SP Corbin Martin, and slugging 1B Seth Beer (rated #13, but I’d bump him up; the ex-Clemson Tiger can really, really hit). M’s history buffs will remember Zach Lee, the one-time Rainier exchanged for Chris Taylor, and plain old history buffs will nod in appreciation at the name of C Ramses Malave. Longtime A’s and Astros OF Josh Reddick is also with the club.
July closes out with return visits from Salt Lake and then Sacramento, but August brings the first visit of the Las Vegas Aviators, the Oakland A’s affiliate. Predicting their roster months out is a fool’s errand, but they start the year with James Kaprelian, their #10 prospect and a guy with big-time talent who’s struggled to stay healthy. They’ve got OF Luis Barrera (#7) and could have SS Logan Davidson (#5) and P Daulton Jefferies (#4, who’s on the injured list at the moment). OF Buddy Reed is a great defender, and had a highlight reel Spring Training; he could rise up the rankings with a good start in 2021. Long-haired SP Grant Holmes (#15) is also on the Aviators; he’s got very good stuff, and put up good numbers back in 2019.
The R’s finish off the home season beginning Sept. 9th with the Sacramento RiverCats. The entire schedule is here. We won’t get to see the newest member of AAA, the Sugarland Skeeters. Long a big club in the independent leagues, MLB pulled the Skeeters and several other of the biggest IL teams into affiliated ball this year – the St. Paul Saints are also in AAA, and the Somerset Patriots are now in AA. We’ll probably see them in Cheney next year, but for now, the M’s will visit Sugarland to face the Astros’ new affiliate.
Here’s tonight’s line-up:
1: Jarred Kelenic, LF
2: Braden Bishop, CF
3: Donovan Walton, SS
4: Cal Raleigh, C
5: Eric Filia, RF
6: Sam Travis, 1B
7: Jose Godoy, DH
8: Travis Witte, 3B
9: Jack Reinheimer, 2B
SP: Paul Sewald
The R’s face El Paso starter Daniel Camarena, a 28-year old Californian who went to HS in San Diego and now hopes to get back to San Diego as a Padre.