Game 59, Mariners at Angles
Robert Dugger vs. Shohei Ohtani, 6:35pm
Yesterday’s win was impressive – they got a good pitching performance from Justus Sheffield, who gave up 2 solo shots, and that was about it. They got runs from the top and bottom of the line-up, and they added on throughout the game after taking the lead on a big 3-R shot by Jake Fraley. And then the patched-together, 3rd-choice bullpen was absolutely dominant, setting the Angels down with ease.
I’ve said it before, but the M’s probably aren’t quite as weird as they look on TV. As we keep seeing, they’re a better hitting team on the road, and it’s pretty obvious. The M’s have a road wRC+ of 93 – that’s not good by any stretch, but it’s far from the worst in the league. It’s mediocre as opposed to awful. They hit for power, but struggle to get on base. It’s ok; it happens to lots of teams. But at home, they simply can’t catch a break. The new ball has cratered HRs, and a combination of the ball and new/deeper OF and IF positioning has turned more balls in play into outs.
This is a serious problem throughout baseball, but it’s especially severe in Seattle, where the small OF means that balls hit to the outfield don’t have any room to fall in. If a fly ball’s not a homer there, it’s not a potential double, the way it might be in Colorado. It’s just a can of corn. As such, the M’s look utterly helpless when batting at home – they’re hitting .191, 16 points lower than the second-worst home average in baseball. Their wRC+ is 83, and that’s with the “+” giving them bonus points for trying to hit there. Their wOBA is .275 at home and over .300 elsewhere. They hit for less power thanks to the marine layer and the ball, and they post a .240 BABIP because of the space available. It’s a tremendously distorting view, and we see it 81 times a year.
And the reverse is true for the pitchers. The M’s home/road splits for pitching are pronounced, but they’re dramatically different in BABIP. They’re not really a strikeout group no matter where they throw, but they give up a lot of hits/runs on the road, and not as many at home. If you’ve been around a while, all of this will give you some pretty powerful deja vu: This is the exact state of affairs before the M’s moved the outfield fences in. The run environment was too skewed; hitters wouldn’t sign there in free agency. Pitchers looked great at home, but got knocked around on the road. Something had to be done.
I can’t blame the M’s too much for this; that they couldn’t foresee a series of changes to the baseball might make their plan backfire isn’t really on them. But the M’s humidor, fence arrangement, IF/OF positioning, and the ever-changing ball make the game really, really weird there.
Perhaps no *pitcher* has benefited from the BABIP plunge as Justin Dunn. It’s something I’ve talked about a lot this season. But today brought word that Dunn’s been moved to the 10-day IL with shoulder soreness, which…no matter what, it’s always going to sound ominous. Robert Dugger’s been recalled a day after being optioned, and he’ll start tonight.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, DH
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, 1B
5: Fraley, RF
6: Kelenic, CF
7: Murphy, C
8: Trammell, LF
9: Walton, 2B
SP: Dugger
Do you have opinions on the new MLB rules, style of play, or robot umps? If so, or even if you’re ambivalent about them all, take this short survey by BP’s Russell Carleton – it’ll be used in a future BP article, and it should make for a cool set of data.
Tacoma lost to Salt Lake 10-5, as the Bees pulled away late, but Tacoma got an absolute bomb of a HR by Cal Raleigh, just to the RF side of the huge CF wall that only a few players have ever cleared. It gave the catcher a 15-game hitting streak. Darren McCaughan starts for Tacoma.
Arkansas lost to Wichita in walk-off fashion, 7-6. The game was the first real clunker from SP Ian McKinney who gave up 5 R in 3 IP thanks to 6 hits and 4 BB. Connor Lien hit two dingers for the Travs. Penn Murfee gets the ball for Arkansas tonight opposite Cole Sands of Wichita, a name that seems like it’s a reference to an industrial process or a slag heap or something.
Everett lost to Hillsboro 7-2. Emerson Hancock gave up 2 R in 3 IP, and then Michael Limoncelli gave up 3 (2 ER) in 2 1/3. Limoncelli’s been pushed, and command’s the last thing back after TJ, but he’s given up 4 walks to just 1 K thus far. Not worried about him, but it’s just not the start I’m sure he wanted. Tough to make your pro debut in High-A. George Kirby starts for the Frogs tonight. He’s been announced a couple times, but hasn’t pitched since May 14th; hope he’s back and pitching well.
San Jose demolished Modesto 9-1, as Adam Macko gave up 6 runs in 3 1/3. Noelvi Marte went 1-4, but made a pair of errors, and Cade Marlowe was 0-4 with a hat trick. That’s enough about that stupid game. No word on Modesto’s starter tonight.
At what point does Kelenic need to go back down? 0-forever….
9 games without a hit and bad process over that span. Can’t just pin it on BABIP.
I don’t know when he needs to go down, but with just 88 PAs, I would imagine he’ll get a longer look. They should probably be looking for a stopgap. That, or a player with positional flexibility to move forward with.
Yeah, having the 2021 version of 1930’s Braves Field or Griffith Park (except worse because the OF is tight) isn’t going to help your hitting prospects develop- plus yeah, it’s going to be hard to sell this to free agents unless you pull out checkbooks like you did for Adrian Beltre (and you can see what Safeco did to his career).
Nice for your pitching prospects though I guess, for 81 games…
As for Kelenic… what, so we can see utility IFers or Jose Marmolejos not hit either? That’s what is so frustrating about this ownership group and front office, it was 100% foreseeable that OF was going to be a problem, playing kids who aren’t ready or AAA organizational depth that is never going to be ready is bad either way.
Kelenic sent back to Tacoma after 0-39 streak. 0-20 is a terrible slump. 0-39 is simply unimaginable.