Game 63, Mariners at Indians
Justin Dunn vs. Aaron Civale, 4:10pm
The first of the day’s transactions is pretty obvious, as Justin Dunn’s coming off of the 10-day IL in order to make tonight’s start. In addition, they’ve activated Kendall Graveman from the Covid-related IL, so they’ve got a key rotation member AND their closer back. That’s necessitated two corresponding moves, and we’re getting an expected one and something of a head-scratcher. First, the M’s have DFA’d reliever Yacksel Rios, whom they picked up about a week ago from the Rays.* The stranger move is that the M’s have optioned Keynan Middleton to Tacoma. Sure, he wasn’t perfect in his last outing, closing out the Tigers in a non-save situation, but he’s been quite effective recently, and seemed to be getting high-leverage innings (especially in the Angels series). But as I’ve said, this seems to be the way the M’s want to run their team this year: churn through as many relievers as you can, even if that means a ridiculous amount of roster moves. Even if it means, as with Rios, bringing guys in, giving them a game or two, and moving on. I have to say, for a team that wants to claim that it’s building towards a championship-contending team in the near term, it’s an odd, and potentially counter-productive strategy.
Aaron Civale will be familiar to many of you as the right-hander who gave up Jarred Kelenic’s first big league hit, a home run to right. I’d said before the game that it may be a bad match-up for Kelenic, and that turned out not to be the case at all. In previous years, he’d showed reverse splits, thanks to an effective mix of breaking balls and a split-change that produces comparatively weak contact. But this year, it’s not exactly working: lefties are slugging *.808* off of Civale’s fastball, and they’re slugging close to .500 overall. On the other hand, he’s been great against right-handers, with his fastball/slider/curve/split mix. Civale doesn’t walk many, but also allows a lot of balls in play.
The other recent move the M’s have made was to pick up 1B/LF Jake Bauers from Cleveland. The one-time Tampa rookie and intriguing reclamation project for Cleveland moved up through both the Rays and Padres system showing patience and a low strikeout rate, paired with good but not great power. In the bigs, he’s shown gap power, though probably not enough for someone at his position, that same good walk rate, but a collapse in both his K rate and his BABIP. The BABIP thing *could* regress towards league average, I suppose, but his expected stats (based on exit velo and the like) don’t show a lot of room for optimism. It’s an interesting move for the M’s, particularly as Evan White begins his rehab assignment in Tacoma (and didn’t feel good enough to play in last night’s game); he was a well-regarded prospect recently. But his production has cratered thanks to something pretty common in baseball these days: bendy pitches. Bauers is slugging .280 off of breaking balls in his career, and an even-more-anemic .188 off of breaking balls. The word is out, I fear. He put a couple of fastballs in play against the Tigers, but late in the game, he saw 4 sliders out of 5 total pitches, with the lone heater a waste pitch out of the zone.
Kyle Lewis just had surgery to repair his torn meniscus, and has no timetable for his return. It could be a few months. We may get to see Jarred Kelenic again before too long, and I’m sure we’ll see more of Dillon Thomas in the meantime.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, DH
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, 1B
5: Fraley, LF
6: Long, 2B
7: Bauers, RF
8: Thomas, CF
9: Godoy, C
SP: Dunn
JP Crawford has been incredibly hot of late, pushing his OPS back over .700. I’ve been down on his new approach, but when he’s hot, he’s great to watch. John Trupin of LL wrote a great piece on his hot streak and low exit velos yesterday that’s definitely worth reading.
* I was going to write up Rios, but he wasn’t around long enough. The M’s picked him up while I was on a camping trip; this is NOT the kind of team you can miss a day’s news and reliably know who you’ll see in that night’s game. I checked MLB Gameday on my trip, saw that “Yacksel Rios” was pitching and thought I was on the wrong game. He threw quite hard, but struggled with the M’s. He’ll get another shot somewhere, as anyone who can touch 99 with some semblance of control will.
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15 Responses to “Game 63, Mariners at Indians”
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What a fun game.
If you’re a Cleveland fan.
Kikuchi struggling with his command. Is it his knee, or are his hands a little dry?
Kikuchi looking better now.
Fraley continues to impress.
Looks like Rafael Montero is auditioning for the Bobby Ayala spot in the bullpen.
Sure glad that Jerry’s churning through a billion relievers but Servais is making sure he gets critical innings…
This isn’t on Servais. You can’t blame him for turning to the experienced reliever over a waiver claim in the 9th, nor using Graveman in the 8th to face the top of the order.
This sucks, but overall Jerry did a pretty good job overhauling the bullpen on a tight budget. Injuries have affected most clubs significantly, Seattle being no exception, yet they ranked 5th or 6th via Fangraphs coming into today’s game.
That’s a problem, as I see it. They are 5th or 6th so far, but most of their relievers are pitching way above expectations. Regression to their mean is probably going to be painful.
And yes, I agree with the observation that Montero reminds one of Bobby Ayala.
Who’s pitching drastically above expectations other than Graveman, who coincidentally gave up his first run tonight but didn’t give up the lead?
I see the bullpen getting stronger with Giles, Muñoz, and probably at least one of Dunn/Sheffield–if not both–next season.
I don’t think Montero is particularly good, or that the M’s are going to make him good. He’s 30 years old and there’s a reason his lifetime stats are what they are. I don’t have expectations of him other than he’ll blow some games for us if he’s used to close. Fungible bullpen guy but not actually very good.
I also don’t see why we’re bringing in a ton of guys for about 5 minutes of evaluation in bullpen roles before they get sent to Tacoma or DFA’ed, but hey, whatever.
Montero hasn’t been good, but does anyone actually think he’s going to stick around?
I didn’t get the Tapia or Delaplane DFAs, but Jerry overall has done well to strengthen the ‘pen on a shoe-string budget.
Next year I would like to see Flexen, Sheff, and Dunn in the bullpen. It isn’t an area they need to sweat as long as they don’t ignore the infield and rotation.
The bullpen’s not bad, and most of Servais’s use of the bullpen hasn’t been bad either.
With one major exception: he keeps sending Montero to the mound every three days like clockwork, and Montero gives up an average of half a run an inning like clockwork.
Prior to that last appearance, Montero had an ERA of 4.61. Not exactly the guy to bring in for a save, but that’s what Servais did. So far this season Montero has 7 saves — and 6 blown saves. Or for a more advanced stat, his rWAR is now -1.10. He’s cost the Mariners more than a complete win all by himself, in less than half a season.
It’s not as if this is a surprise. In seven major league seasons, Montero’s had only two where his performance was above replacement level.
Yet Servais keeps trotting Montero out there in high leverage situations (average Leverage Index of 1.96 so far this season). Servais could do better by doing closer-by-committee, or putting almost anybody except for Montero on the mound in high-leverage situations. Except for Misiewicz, who Servais has wisely relegated to mostly low leverage situations, which is what he ought to do with Montero too. Have the other relievers pitch 1.2 or 1.2 innings instead of the 1 inning that Servais currently does.
Servais hasn’t been using Montero in the tougher match-ups, which is why we saw Graveman in the 8th that game.
I know Montero hasn’t been good, but who was better that you’d feel better closing out the game with Graveman having already faced the top of the order?
It’s easy to say ‘anyone other than Montero’, but he at least has some positive experience closing, and I would add that these decisions aren’t even Servais’. These are usually drawn up in advance, Servais just executes them with little room to improvise.
That game wasn’t on Servais.
“I would add that these decisions aren’t even Servais’. These are usually drawn up in advance, Servais just executes them with little room to improvise.”
Who is drawing up those plans? Get someone else to do them.
Well, again, who was the better option after Graveman was used in the 8th?
None of the options were ideal. That’s what happens when you have a number of injuries decimating your depth.
That, and a lack of talent.
Easy. The guy who they sent to pitch the 10th inning, Sewald. Or they could’ve had Steckenrider pitch a second day in a row.
But you’re ducking the question about that claim that you made: “I would add that these decisions aren’t even Servais’. These are usually drawn up in advance, Servais just executes them with little room to improvise.”
Who’s making those decisions, if not Servais? DiPoto? Anyway, whoever it is needs to stop mechanically and mindlessly sending Montero to the mound every three days and using him in save situations.
I’m not ducking anything. You should know by know that the analytics department gives him the information. This isn’t a secret, and in case you didn’t notice, Seawald blew it in extras.
And to be clear, I’m not defending Montero. I’m simply saying it wasn’t on Servais. He didn’t have much to work with.