Game 75, Rockies at Mariners
Chris Flexen vs. Kyle Freeland, 7:10pm
The M’s are officially red hot, sweeping the Rays to move two games over .500. Their spotty pitching has looked solid, and their line-up is capable of scoring runs, even at home, but they’ve retained their amazing performance in close/late situations. This remains a deeply flawed team, and their path to contention remains incredibly difficult given the number of good teams ahead of them in the wild card hunt. But still! That I’m even looking at the wild card hunt is a good sign.
You know who *isn’t* looking at the wild card standings? The Rockies. After paying St. Louis to take Nolan Arenado off of their hands, the deeply troubled Rockies fired their GM. I say troubled, but let’s remember that the club made the playoffs in 2018 and 2017. Those clubs were good, and good in many ways. They had the homegrown position player core of Arenado, Trevor Story, and Charlie Blackmon, and while some of their FA/trade acquisitions didn’t quite work (Ian Desmond), enough of them did (DJ LeMahieu) that the whole offense was a net plus. More interesting, though, was their pitching staff. Long unable to develop pitchers – and of course, their home park was a part of that – they suddenly figured something out. Tonight’s starter, Kyle Freeland, was perhaps the biggest success: he went 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA for the Rockies in that great 2018 season. But he had company: German Marquez had a sub-4 ERA in 2018 after a strong rookie year in 2017. Jon Gray, the 3rd overall pick in 2013, was inconsistent, but had the highest upside of the group.
Moreover, they did something really odd, particularly for the post-juiced-ball era of 2016-2019. I mentioned it here back in 2017, and said I had no idea what the hell they were doing. The Rockies led baseball in *both* four-seam fastball percentage and ground ball rate. In general, these things are negatively correlated: the more four-seamers you throw, you’d expect your GB% to go *down.* This wasn’t a one-year fluke, either. They were #1 in both in 2017, then #3 in both in 2018, then #1 in both in 2019. They had found one weird trick, and they were gonna use the hell out of it.
Let’s check in on them this season: #1 in four-seams, and #2 in grounders. This is pretty remarkable, if you think about it. Four-seamers have some advantages over other fastballs; they generally get more swings-and-misses than sinkers, and can lead to lower batting averages-against due to better odds of inducing a pop-up. The traditional cost has been a much higher likelihood of a swing turning into a homer, but if you could get the good stuff *and* ground balls? That’d be amazing. At a park like Coors, it could turn you into an instant contender, and, well, it did. The Rockies finished 8th in fWAR in 2017 and 9th in 2018. But something went seriously wrong in 2019, as the even-juicier baseball helped push their HRs-allowed to early-2000s levels, crashing their value to 27th in baseball that year. Like Gallagher or perhaps Andrew Dice Clay, they kept doing the same show, but audiences weren’t impressed anymore.
Kyle Freeland is the microcosm of the Rockies pitching as a whole. He came up and had a lot of success throwing his 92-93 mph four-seam from the left side, and he’d mix in sinkers, sliders, and a cutter. His best secondary is a firm change-up at 86, with nearly identical movement to his sinker. Both of his fastballs generated a lot of grounders. With the sinker, that’s understandable, but why would his four-seam? Because it, too, sinks like crazy. It’s a high-spin pitch, one of the highest on the club, but it has very little rise. The reason? It’s essentially a cutter. Freeland throws a high-octane cutter at 92, and then a more slider-y thingy at 86 with essentially inverse movement to his change. This approach was highly effective in 2018, as he not only got plenty of grounders, but more pop-ups than average. All of this pushed his HR-per-fly ball rate down, an amazing result in Colorado. How would it fare against the new, lower-drag baseball? Poorly!
Freeland got annihilated in 2019, as his HR/FB luck ran out, and in fact, flipped against him. His K rate has dropped every year since 2018, from 20.5% that year to 15.1% in 2020 and 11.3% this year. The home runs don’t stop even though the ball’s been deadened slightly. Oh, and his walk rate’s up. Freeland comes into tonight with an ERA nearing 10 and seemingly bound for a demotion, the way Jon Gray went from opening day starter to AAA starter in the same year a little while ago. It’s remarkable that the staff as a whole retains their ability to generate ground balls, but even with a ball that doesn’t fly as far, they simply can’t get outs. They are comfortably in last place in K/9 this year, and they’re in the top 10 in HR/9. It’s ugly.
Freeland’s only made 5 starts this year, but his 2021 struggles look much the same as his awful 2020. Freeland needs help, and I’m not sure he’s going to get it from his organization. Every pitch he’s throwing right now is getting tagged; batters are slugging .565 off of his four-seam since the start of 2020, and .620 off of his sinker, and .588 off of his cutter. I’m sure his confidence is shot, a process we watched with Gray. The rotation’s being carried right now by Austin Gomber, their much-maligned return for Arenado, and German Marquez, whose walk rate is now scarily high, but who still combines strikeouts and ground balls.
This is an interesting match-up then, as Freeland desperately needs to limit HRs, and T-Mobile’s generally been pitcher-friendly this year. But as we’ve seen in recent weeks, when the weather warms up, the ball can carry here. Shed Long said he wasn’t sure his walk-off grand slam was gone until it went over the wall, and I’d agree- I thought it would hit the bottom of the wall. Same for JP Crawford’s slam earlier in the series.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, DH
5: Bauers, 1B
6: Murphy, C
7: Fraley, CF
8: Moore, 2B
9: Long, LF
SP: Flexen
JP Crawford’s power surge is both welcome and among the more improbable things I’ve seen this year. As you know, I thought he was being coached into a slap-hitting, put-the-ball-in-play Dee Gordon clone, and I thought that was disastrous. On May 5th, his SLG% dipped to .294, and his ISO had fallen every year he’d been in MLB. Since that day, he’s played 41 games, and slashed .300/.360/.475. His K rate and K:BB are, if anything, “worse,” but you have to put scare quotes on that, because it doesn’t matter at all. His K rate is still low, and his walk rate is fine. It would continue to drop, though, if pitchers thought he couldn’t hurt them, the way he really, actually couldn’t in April. Even modest power is a requirement, and he’s showing more than that. It’s amazing. I’ve mentioned his troubling home/road splits, but those are getting better as he’s driven the ball in T-Mobile recently. The real key has been his domination of left-handed pitching. That was always a trouble spot for the lefty JP, but he’s figured something out. Hey, look, he gets to face a lefty tonight.
Tacoma lost to Vegas 15-6 in the desert, as Logan Verrett scuffled on the mound. Cal Raleigh went 3-4, bringing his season line to .353/.403/.654. Tonight, David Huff takes on struggling prospect and recently-demoted Athletic, Jesus Luzardo. As Mike Curto mentioned on Twitter, “Huff” sounds like an album title from 90s noise-rock titans the Jesus Lizard.
Arkansas resumes their long-simmering civil war with breakaway republic North Arkansas tonight. Alejandro Requena takes on Angel Zerpa, a delightfully-named left-hander making his AA debut. He was 4-0 in High-A Quad Cities.
Everett faces off with the Tri-City Dust Devils, as Juan Then takes the mound for the Frogs opposite Brent Killam. Killam was dominant in the low-A West for Inland Empire, striking out 41 in 24 innings, but he’s been hit hard in two starts at this level. I also just have to note that the pitching probables make an ominous statement: Then-Killam.
Modesto takes on Lake Elsinore.
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6 Responses to “Game 75, Rockies at Mariners”
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Jesus Lizard…been a while since I heard that name.
Lot of good stuff in the 90’s in Washington. First taste of decent baseball, too.
One of my biggest complaints coming out of the offseason was the fact that Seattle didn’t pick up insurance for White.
Better late than never.
Márquez is perfect through 5, but it doesn’t hurt anymore. Either I’m imune, or numb.
Anybody still confident Sheffield can stick as a starter? I’m not even sold on Flexen as more than a number 6.
But of course it’s June.
I think I’m fine with having Sheffield and Flexen play out rather than having a lot of Tacoma do bullpen days.
Also, Flexen’s control is way better, so I like his chances of sticking in the rotation.
Oh, all three should be given the rest of the season to prove themselves.
But I’m not feeling great about them locking down rotation spots next season. Flexen has been the best of the three, but I’m greedy and want stronger options 1-5.