Game 108, Mariners at Rays
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Luis Patiño, 4:10pm
The M’s beat the Rays for the 5th time in 5 games yesterday, another odd statistic in a season made up wholly of oddities. While they’re a flawed team, and I get why projection systems aren’t high on their playoff chances, the M’s have actually played pretty well against the teams they’re competing with for the wildcard. They’re 5-0 against the Rays, and 6-4 against Oakland. It’s the Tigers that’ve given them fits.
We know, or think we know, why the M’s are on the outskirts of a playoff race. They may not have great starting pitching, and their offense has scuffled, but they had a lockdown bullpen and their bats are unbelievably clutch. Not, perhaps, the *best* set of ingredients for a great team, but as I’ve said all year, it’s an entertaining set of ingredients. This team has been fun to watch because, outside of two painful walkoffs last week, they don’t tend to give away games late, and their offense is at its best (which, I mean, low bar) when it counts. That doesn’t make the team great, but it lets them hang around, even against great teams.
So, why are the Rays in this position? What are the good at, and what’s gone right for them? Remember, the offseason began with the Rays trading away Blake Snell to San Diego and replacing him with Rich Hill. Tyler Glasnow, the team’s best pitcher, is on the shelf, and the Rays traded Hill at the deadline. Randy Arozarena’s star turn in last year’s playoffs has been followed up with a solid, unspectacular season. Manny Margot’s turned back into Manny Margot, not the power hitter who helped get the Rays to the AL Pennant. Especially with Glasnow hurt, Nick Anderson not pitching an inning thus far, Brendan McKay out, and Shane Baz not debuting yet, I expected the Rays pitching staff to be OK/good, but nothing all that special. Instead, they’re right where they always are, near the top in fWAR and bWAR – they’re good by fielding-independent stats and by good old ERA.
They’re line-up is the same: Austin Meadows, Arozarena, Brandon Lowe – they’re all putting up good seasons, but none of them is a star; none of them will get MVP votes. One of their most valuable players is Mike Zunino, putting up perhaps his best year after years of (offensive) struggles in Florida, and Ji-Man Choi is taking the Jake Fraley route to value, drawing loads of walks to make up for a so-so average and power production. It all seems “pretty good” more than “dominant team” but that’s what the Rays have been – they’ve got the #5 staff and the #6 offense by Fangraphs.
What’s more, the offensive strategy looks pretty familiar for M’s fans. The Rays have struck out more than any team in baseball, just ahead of your Seattle Mariners. But they’ve walked far more than Seattle, and hit for a bit more power. Is that just the home parks? Well, Tampa’s rates as even more of a pitcher’s park than Seattle’s by BBREF’s park factors, and FG agrees it’s harder to hit home runs there. Both teams will trade strikeouts for OBP and power, and the Rays have simply been much better at getting them. Mike Zunino and Cal Raleigh really may be similar players, but at least in 2021, Zunino’s been better at it.
Today, the M’s face the primary return for Blake Snell, Luis Patiño, once the pride of the San Diego system. The 21-year old righty throws a hard, rising fastball at 96 and his best pitch is a two-plane slider at 86-87. He’s also got a firm change up and slider, and is messing with a sinker that shows commendably distinct break from his four-seam. The slider’s tough to hit, and righties see a steady dose of them. It’s clearly been his best pitch, but he’s still got to get to it. That’s been harder than you’d think given his fastball. It *looks* good, but batters don’t seem to mind it all that much. They’ve put it in play, and done some damage against it…and MLB’s expected stats show that Patiño is lucky they’ve *only* put up a .331 wOBA against it.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, DH
5: Toro, 2B
6: Fraley, LF
7: Kelenic, CF
8: Raleigh, C
9: Bauers, 1B
SP: Kikuchi
Make that 6 in a row.
Tampa is a team full of above average players, especially in the pitching department, but they get periodic star performances from their team. Last year, Arozarena really gave them a spark. Perhaps Cruz and Franco will do the same this year as they enter the postseason?
Regardless, it’s good to see Seattle shaking off the suck from the last two series.
Observation…
Seattle needs a true center fielder. Kelenic is terrible, Fraley isn’t much better, and Lewis has to be handled carefully. Haniger no longer handles RF the way he once did, so he’s pretty much out of the question, Trammell isn’t likely going to be MLB-ready by opening day, and Rodriguez is destined for a corner (probably RF).
Seattle needs a true center fielder.
Start of rant:
If you look at the trade with Houston as a Graveman-for-Toro swap in a vacuum, it’s not so bad. There’s an argument Seattle could have, or should have gotten more. But whatever. He’s off to a great start. Hopefully he’ll be able to adjust as the updated reports reach opposing pitchers. Still a really small sample of success with him.
The problem is that the bullpen was gelled. It was the strength of the team, the reason they were in the conversation for contention, and they dropped a hammer in the middle of it, shattering the feelings of many.
It’s rare you can buy your way out of a broken heart, which is essentially what was attempted. The team isn’t the same. Castillo wasn’t going to mend anything in the short-term. Time is going to be needed.
They might be better for it in the long-term, but for a fan base starved of the postseason, it was a questionable gamble and everything is in shambles now.
This season is probably toast. NY is a better team. Oakland, Tampa, Boston, Toronto…all better teams. Baseball gives us the unexpected, like the 2006 Cardinals, but the reality is that this isn’t a team that’s dialed-in.
This coming offseason will be telling. Jerry has a lot on his plate. He needs a respectable budget as much as he needs to make things right with the current players, and he has to satisfy a fan base that has endured enough BS to last a lifetime.
End of rant.
For a rant, it makes a lot of sense.
Jerry opted for the Billy Beane approach to unexpected contention with a flawed team; sell some assets high, don’t deviate from the plan, if it angers the clubhouse, there’s always next year.
There’s a method to it, at least. You can see the outline of the 2022 team if you figure he hasn’t given up on Evan White. Sign a couple of Paxton/Flexen types in the rotation, maybe exercise Kikuchi’s option, Haniger is under control so maybe do a deal before arbitration… it’s all pretty much there. Perhaps trades if he has an itchy finger.
Whether that’s good enough or not…
At least Oakland snubbed Semien in the offseason, limiting the backlash and giving the players time to get over it before spring training.
But that proved to be a big mistake, so if there was a lesson to learn, it was missed.
Jerry has to have a respectable budget, though. He can’t chase more lottery tickets like Flexen & Paxton and call it good. And to be fair, I would guess that he wants to do more. Right now, I would argue a need for a position-flexible infielder, a centerfielder, two starting pitchers, and a reliever or two, depending on the status of Dunn, Muñoz, Giles, and Sheffield.
I wonder if the fallout from trading Graveman might at the deadline might make him more likely to move Haniger in the offseason, rather than at the deadline next season. I also wonder if Graveman might be re-signed as a kind of compromise.
Thinking outloud.
I don’t know how much Jerry’s budget’s going to expand beyond 2021’s ~70ish million to add another big salary. Especially when if you figure they are going to want to give Lewis, Kelenic and Haniger playing time, Trammell and Fraley are kind of in the mix too, and oh yeah, Juliooooo might make moves to be on the MLB team before too long. For all we know ownership really HAS decided to be Oakland/Tampa North.
Also… do you count last year’s Taijuan Walker signing as a “lottery ticket”? That is probably the class of player I think he’d chase after to deepen the rotation, plus a lottery ticket type maybe.
If you figure your rotation goes Marco/Gilbert/Flexen/Kikuchi/FA signing and then it’s Dunn + the universe (Ljay Newsome, whoever) fighting out for 6 and providing depth… well, the rotation is light on 1/2 action (either a little or a lot depending on how you feel about Logan Gilbert) but it’s a credible.
Then the lineup is Raleigh (mostly C)/Torrens (mostly DH), White, Toro, Crawford, France, Haniger, Lewis, Kelenic, maybe your bench is Moore, Murphy, Fraley… the bullpen is today’s bullpen + Giles + some injury guys coming back who don’t win starting spots.
That would basically be a bet on Raleigh, Torrens, White, Toro and Kelenic taking some steps forward as a group on offense, and Logan Gilbert stepping up to #1/#2 level… and it would probably be a pretty cost-effective lineup and rotation. Whether or not it’s talented enough to actually contend or you get something like this year, where you get flashes but the weaknesses are exposed… kind of depends on how your kids bear out (if Even White is still a disaster, Kyle Lewis can’t stay healthy and they can’t figure out CF, injuries ravage the rotation or bullpen, etc.) or not.
Let’s just say I have some doubts… but I see the path Jerry could go down, and frankly it’s better than seeing Shin-Soo Choo get traded for peanuts.
My feelings about the moves, and this season in general, are decidedly mixed. Before this season, the Mariners were in Year 3 of what realistically should be a four-year rebuild. All, or almost all, pre-season prognostications predicted they’d be well under .500 this season.
The Ms have out-performed that, with some very exciting victories. They were seemingly at the edge of the race for the playoffs, and that’s not something that happens every season and wouldn’t it have been nice to take advantage of what they’ve done this season and bolster the roster instead of saying “wait ’til next year”. Next year, maybe the rookies are injured or underperform again. But 2021’s win-loss record is real, and being a game behind Oakland for the final playoff spot was real.
Or was it real? The Ms roster has been filled with too many players who are marginal at the major league level. Of the players who’ve played 20 or more games for them so far, 8 have performed below replacement level. It’s been amazing and fun that they were in the hunt for the playoffs until early August, but did they really have a chance in this race?
There’s no need to try to analyze the Ms run differential or Pythagorean won-loss record; the eyeball test tells us the Ms have been lucky this season, facing opponent bullpens that had an inexplicable habit of imploding just when the Ms needed them to.
It was not so much”clutch hitting”, it was more “opposing pitchers conveniently screw up when facing the Ms”. A couple of weeks ago Diekman gave up just one crucial run in a single inning, and in that inning he gave up one hit and one walk to the Ms — but allowed two stolen bases and threw three wild pitches. That’s a good way to win games without having a team with much batting ability, but is it sustainable?
How many walk-off grand slams will Moore hit in his career?
Can the Ms keep winning games with walk-off wild pitches?
It’s been a ton of fun, and my hat is off to the Ms for winning more games than they really should’ve, but this 2021 team is not really a playoff contender.
So although I can see why a team that’s just one game behind Oakland for the playoffs could and maybe should take advantage of that and make a push for the playoffs, I can also see why making moves that might be small but meaningful in the long run could be a good idea, even at the cost of clubhouse spirit this year. And I think the team did improve itself a little bit for this season. On paper that is. On the field, this team will probably end up missing the playoffs. But it was probably going to miss them anyway.
But to have been in the race until early August, with a team that wasn’t really equipped to contend in 2021? That’s a better performance than most of us expected, and it’s been a much more exciting and entertaining season by the Ms than I was expecting in March.
I don’t know how much Jerry’s budget’s going to expand beyond 2021’s ~70ish million to add another big salary.
The budget is the million-dollar question. If he’s handcuffed again, I would expect lottery tickets, and by that I mean flawed players, or players with notable flags. I cited Flexen because of his lack of (good) MLB experience and Paxton because his health concerns were notably larger than those that came with Walker. I could easily see him targeting a specific, potential front-line starting pitcher who is returning from TJS. I guess that would be the Powerball of baseball. But there has to be more than just that. There has to be some more stable looking additions, right?
Especially when if you figure they are going to want to give Lewis, Kelenic and Haniger playing time, Trammell and Fraley are kind of in the mix too, and oh yeah, Juliooooo might make moves to be on the MLB team before too long.
I think Seattle has a real need at center field. They could try to wing it with Lewis/Kelenic/Fraley, or even Trammell, but they probably need to be careful with Lewis and the rest are either flawed defensively, or still developing. And with Julio bangin’ on the door as Haniger’s control expires, it’s easy to see them moving Haniger this offseason (possibly for a center fielder). Pickings are slim via free agency in that department.
If you figure your rotation goes Marco/Gilbert/Flexen/Kikuchi/FA signing and then it’s Dunn + the universe (Ljay Newsome, whoever) fighting out for 6 and providing depth… well, the rotation is light on 1/2 action (either a little or a lot depending on how you feel about Logan Gilbert) but it’s a credible.
I don’t disagree. The question, for me, is how great they feel about picking up the option on Kikuchi and if they’re comfortable with Flexen retaining a spot in the rotation, or if they see him as better suited in a swing role. Personally, I think there’s an argument for each possibility. They really need a true front-line starter, and that would arguably be enough, but I’d feel better about another addition if they pass on Kikuchi and use Flexen out of the bullpen. We might be more likely to see an innings-eater, though.
Then the lineup is Raleigh (mostly C)/Torrens (mostly DH), White, Toro, Crawford, France, Haniger, Lewis, Kelenic, maybe your bench is Moore, Murphy, Fraley.
I have a hard time seeing them keeping all of Raleigh-Torrens-Murphy on the active roster simultaneously. White probably has to earn his way back via promotion. France should be the regular first baseman for now.
I also have a hard time seeing Seager’s option picked up. Whether or not it’s justifiable is another argument. I just think both parties are likely to prefer a split and especially the Mariners’ side of the marriage.
Let’s just say I have some doubts… but I see the path Jerry could go down, and frankly it’s better than seeing Shin-Soo Choo get traded for peanuts.
Yeah, I have a load of doubts. There are holes virtually everywhere outside of the bullpen and catcher. I don’t think they’ll completely commit to a Oakland-Tampa path, but I could see Jerry trading Haniger, and maybe a prospect like Kirby, for MLB players of equal value. Maybe a three-way trade to get another targeted player.
I’ll try to give them the benefit of the doubt, but man, it’s a tall order to have a roster as deep and as talented as the current favorites for postseason play. Banking on the team to play over their heads–again–with a couple of mediocre additions wouldn’t sit well with me, and I would imagine the patience of the collective fan base has been exhausted, so the backlash could be incredibly destructive.
And all of this comes after the Mather fallout and the Graveman trade that ticked off virtually the entire team.
Jerry’s treading on thin ice. Hopefully quality free agents aren’t put off by the recent fiascos.
How many walk-off grand slams will Moore hit in his career?
Can the Ms keep winning games with walk-off wild pitches?
Those two questions could be answered (kind of) by the elimination of the runner-on-second rule in extra-innings. A lot of the dramatic wins have come in extras, which largely explains why Seattle was flirting with a wild card.
And now they’re 5.5 games back.
Let’s just say I HOPE Jerry has more budget and uses it… but my fear is that he signs someone like Walker/Paxton/Flexen, someone who slots in mid-rotation as depth rather than a top of rotation guy (Kikuchi and Flexen aren’t actual problems as rotation depth with FIPS in the high 3s, they’re just not aces- if you let Kikuchi walk you’re going to have to replace him with an FA signing anyway, AND you still need a TOR guy), he banks on White and Lewis being solid and Julio being hot on everyone’s heels, and calls it good.
It’s hard for me to see Jerry give up on a guy who’s got a multiyear contract and a Gold Glove like White this soon… though I have to think you probably shouldn’t be giving him the 1B job…
They might get away with cheaping out on a few role players, but they really have to get a legitimate TOR arm, center fielder, and infielder. And given that Sheffield, Dunn, Newsome, and Marge weren’t enough for the back-end of the rotation this year, perhaps adding at least a reserve starter wouldn’t be a bad idea.
I don’t think they’re giving up on White, yet, but I could see him starting the season in Tacoma and playing some center.
And I’d be okay with that as long he isn’t the only new alternative for center.
The Graveman/Toro trade was a good trade. Not least because Long/Moore/Bauers at bats are hurting the M’s in 2021 more than Graveman can help.
The players are crybabies? Oh dear. That doesn’t make it a bad trade.
That laundry list is probably 30 million easy if it’s just FAs, and if you wave bye-bye to Kikuchi on the mutual options and trade Haniger or whoever to fill some of those… let’s just say you’re either giving up crown jewel prospects or you’re paying a lot of cash (maybe both).
The M’s aren’t at the “we can trade away talent because guys are blocked” point yet, are they? They’re still using dudes like Bauers every day.
Also, if you dump Haniger and Kikuchi and Seager, you literally do not have a position player on the roster who played a game as a Mariner before 2019. You basically have Marco and a bunch of trades and minor leaguers. Not much of a team identity.