Game 120, Mariners at Rangers – Previews of 2022?
Tyler Anderson vs. Taylor Hearn, 5:05pm
The M’s return to Texas now for a series that will hopefully feature fewer Jonah Heim walk-offs. The Rangers remain atrocious, but they are coming off an impressive series win against Oakland.
One of the concerns I’ve had and have talked about at length here is: for as obviously lucky as the M’s were in 2021, they don’t look obviously better in 2022. That is, if the M’s were 7-10 games over .500 *because of* breakout performances by Jarred Kelenic, Justus Sheffield, Logan Gilbert, and Justin Dunn, that would give you more confidence in the idea that the club’s talent level is building, and all they’d need to do is fill in around it. Instead, what’s happened at times is that mid-level players and veterans have essentially provided the production that the M’s have missed due to the growing pains of Kelenic, Cal Raleigh, Dylan Moore, etc.
But is that really the story? Nathan Bishop had an interesting conversation on this point on Twitter this morning. Yes, luck has played an oversized role this season in the team’s success (they have the second most one- or two-run wins in baseball behind the Yankees, and a .590 winning percentage in all one- or two-run games). Yes, the best three position players (France, Haniger, Seager) average 30 years of age right now. But the emergence of France at the plate combined with him finding a position changes how we view 2022, at least a little bit. That may mean Evan White is blocked, but I’m not sure Evan White has a place on a contending team right now. Before the year, I said Ty France was the most important position player for the 2021 Mariners because it seemed like he was one of the few players who could conceivably hit for average and thus drive in, say, JP Crawford when he gets on. That’s precisely what’s happened, as France’s average and wRC+ lead the club’s regulars. It’s a mild disappointment that he’s doing at at 1B and not 3B/2B, but that’s tempered by the fact that he’s been excellent defensively there, and it’s honestly a big step up from where he was most often at the beginning of the year: designated hitter.
Abraham Toro is not going to stay a .340/.440/.560 hitter, but his hot start allows the M’s to finally envision someone staying at 2B for more than 4 months. A line-up with the best version of Toro/France is a much better one than a line-up with Moore/White, and that’s a clear upgrade the M’s have made in the past year. Toro’s looked better defensively than I would’ve expected as well. Logan Gilbert, too, has come up and been at least a league average starter from day 1, and something better than that after a couple of rough outings in his first two starts. He’s not perfect, and has things to work on, but while the M’s position player transitions from the minors remain a bit troubling, Gilbert’s has gone pretty much as-expected, which is a good sign for a team that’s going to need production from the likes of George Kirby and Emerson Hancock in the near future.
If there’s a concern it’s that we’ve seen these hopeful signs before. Last year, Dylan Moore shook off the utility player tag and posted a legitimately good season in the bizarre sprint that was 2020. He’s collapsed this year, though, as his strikeouts returned without the solid BABIP he managed last year. Moore was only playing 2B last year because the breakout half-season of 2019 was put up by Shed Long, Jr., who posted a 111 wRC+ and showed serious power before his shin injury cost him 2020 and much of 2021. Tom Murphy was the M’s best player in 2019, and hasn’t come close to repeating that level this year. That can’t keep happening if the M’s want to actually build towards something. France’s solid 2020 *and* 2021 gives M’s fans confidence, and I suppose the industry scuttlebutt that Toro was much, much better than he’d shown does too. But we still need to see it on the field, and we need those guys surrounded by much more talent.
I’m very encouraged by Jarred Kelenic’s improvement in recent weeks, and it certainly looks real. I still have to say that this season is, at least at this point, a pretty clear failure for him. Many, many players have gone on to great careers after a poor rookie campaign; you can probably put Edgar Martinez in that group. But the odds get steeper among player who’ve looked completely overmatched. No one expects young players to come up and star from day 1, though it does happen sometimes. But Evan White’s 2020 was a massive red flag, and, thus far, it’s a pretty big step up from Kelenic’s numbers. Javy Baez and Jackie Bradley, Jr. are two players who’ve gone on to very nice careers who got kind of steamrolled by MLB initially. Both have excellent gloves, and both – for all of their amazing play – remain a bit up-and-down. I’m not truly worried about Kelenic, but I want to see him get his overall line up considerably from where it is to help me sleep better at night.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: France, 1B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Toro, 2B
6: Fraley, LF
7: Torrens, DH
8: Kelenic, CF
9: Raleigh, C
SP: Anderson
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2 Responses to “Game 120, Mariners at Rangers – Previews of 2022?”
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I don’t fault your analysis. The competitiveness of this year’s team has felt more like mirage than development. However, I think Fraley’s development as at least a solid 4th outfielder is of note (and a massive step up from where he seemed headed).
With Kelenic, I can’t understand why no coach was able to say, “remember 2019, when you raked? How about trying that stance again?” He my be a slow learner. The M’s most notorious slow learner was Felix Hernandez, so I think Jarred will be okay.
I wouldn’t call this a successful season for Kelenic regardless of how he finishes the year. I would call it ‘expected’. He’s still a kid. Significant breakouts are rare for players/prospects his age. What he’s been doing more recently is promising, but there will be adjustment periods to follow.
And it’s not just Kelenic, White, Sheffield’s step backwards or Dunn’s injuries and inability to offer innings that’s concerning. It’s Lewis’ health, it’s the question of what to do with Haniger, how to deal with Seager, and the right approach with the catching. Though I’d like Haniger to stick around, if he intends to split as a free agent and Seattle isn’t likely going to be a major force in 2022, is it better to move him and have Lewis take RF? Can they contend with Raleigh trying to iron out a number of issues and Murphy being a RHH-platoon bat?
I’m probably more bullish on the pitching than most, though. Though I don’t anticipate a repeat of the bullpen dominance, moving Dunn and/or Sheffield to the ‘pen, along with Muñoz and Giles potentially contributing positively, at least looks strong on paper. Bringing Graveman back could go a long way to helping mend some wounds and restoring confidence among the team as well.
That said, I have more questions than answers now, and that’s not what I hoped for at this point.