Game 114, Rangers at Mariners
Logan Gilbert vs. Kolby Allard, 7:10pm
This was supposed to be it. A potentially critical homestand with the M’s within striking distance of the playoffs, buoyed by their incredible bullpen. Despite a big win in the final game in the Bronx it…uh, it’s not going to be that. The M’s stumbled in Texas before righting the ship a bit in Tampa. But losing 3 of 4 in New York as both the A’s and Blue Jays surge means the M’s are in a very different position now. It’s nice to point to the Rangers line-up and say that they can get right back in this, but it’s all slipping away as the Jays and A’s stay hot.
I don’t really want to rehash the trade deadline, nor do I want to pick apart the M’s path back into the wild card hunt. It’s odd; we’re at a point of the season I always thought they’d be. They’ve *still* beaten my expectations, and their playoff chances waned far later than I ever would’ve expected. But I’m kind of surprised at my own reaction – my own hurt – to the past road trip.
The M’s desperately need to get hot at the plate after the Yankees’ replacement starters and bullpen arms held them in check. Luckily, that’s what the Rangers are for. I remember writing up Kolby Allard just after he got to Texas from Atlanta, at a time when the Rangers were having some success with reclamation projects like Lance Lynn and Mike Minor. Allard is…not going to turn out like Lance Lynn. He’s improved markedly this year, but something always holds him back.
In the previous few years, that something was control, as he walked over 13% of batters last year. This year, that rate has plummeted to just over 5%, and he’s maintained his average-ish strikeout rate (I can’t believe average is over 23% now). But getting more of the zone comes at a cost: home runs. He’s always maintained a fairly low BABIP, but he’s hemorrhaging dingers this year, along with hard-hit contact. Allard simply doesn’t get swings and misses, and thus depends on catching batters with called strikes. Spend that much time in the zone with so-so stuff, and yeah, you’ll give up too many homers.
Logan Gilbert throws fewer pitches in the zone, but can get away with it thanks to better velo and a better breaking ball. Allard has no such luck.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, 1B
5: Toro, 2B
6: Torrens, DH
7: Kelenic, CF
8: Murphy, C
9: Moore, LF
SP: Gilbert
Game 108, Mariners at Rays
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Luis Patiño, 4:10pm
The M’s beat the Rays for the 5th time in 5 games yesterday, another odd statistic in a season made up wholly of oddities. While they’re a flawed team, and I get why projection systems aren’t high on their playoff chances, the M’s have actually played pretty well against the teams they’re competing with for the wildcard. They’re 5-0 against the Rays, and 6-4 against Oakland. It’s the Tigers that’ve given them fits.
We know, or think we know, why the M’s are on the outskirts of a playoff race. They may not have great starting pitching, and their offense has scuffled, but they had a lockdown bullpen and their bats are unbelievably clutch. Not, perhaps, the *best* set of ingredients for a great team, but as I’ve said all year, it’s an entertaining set of ingredients. This team has been fun to watch because, outside of two painful walkoffs last week, they don’t tend to give away games late, and their offense is at its best (which, I mean, low bar) when it counts. That doesn’t make the team great, but it lets them hang around, even against great teams.
So, why are the Rays in this position? What are the good at, and what’s gone right for them? Remember, the offseason began with the Rays trading away Blake Snell to San Diego and replacing him with Rich Hill. Tyler Glasnow, the team’s best pitcher, is on the shelf, and the Rays traded Hill at the deadline. Randy Arozarena’s star turn in last year’s playoffs has been followed up with a solid, unspectacular season. Manny Margot’s turned back into Manny Margot, not the power hitter who helped get the Rays to the AL Pennant. Especially with Glasnow hurt, Nick Anderson not pitching an inning thus far, Brendan McKay out, and Shane Baz not debuting yet, I expected the Rays pitching staff to be OK/good, but nothing all that special. Instead, they’re right where they always are, near the top in fWAR and bWAR – they’re good by fielding-independent stats and by good old ERA.
They’re line-up is the same: Austin Meadows, Arozarena, Brandon Lowe – they’re all putting up good seasons, but none of them is a star; none of them will get MVP votes. One of their most valuable players is Mike Zunino, putting up perhaps his best year after years of (offensive) struggles in Florida, and Ji-Man Choi is taking the Jake Fraley route to value, drawing loads of walks to make up for a so-so average and power production. It all seems “pretty good” more than “dominant team” but that’s what the Rays have been – they’ve got the #5 staff and the #6 offense by Fangraphs.
What’s more, the offensive strategy looks pretty familiar for M’s fans. The Rays have struck out more than any team in baseball, just ahead of your Seattle Mariners. But they’ve walked far more than Seattle, and hit for a bit more power. Is that just the home parks? Well, Tampa’s rates as even more of a pitcher’s park than Seattle’s by BBREF’s park factors, and FG agrees it’s harder to hit home runs there. Both teams will trade strikeouts for OBP and power, and the Rays have simply been much better at getting them. Mike Zunino and Cal Raleigh really may be similar players, but at least in 2021, Zunino’s been better at it.
Today, the M’s face the primary return for Blake Snell, Luis Patiño, once the pride of the San Diego system. The 21-year old righty throws a hard, rising fastball at 96 and his best pitch is a two-plane slider at 86-87. He’s also got a firm change up and slider, and is messing with a sinker that shows commendably distinct break from his four-seam. The slider’s tough to hit, and righties see a steady dose of them. It’s clearly been his best pitch, but he’s still got to get to it. That’s been harder than you’d think given his fastball. It *looks* good, but batters don’t seem to mind it all that much. They’ve put it in play, and done some damage against it…and MLB’s expected stats show that Patiño is lucky they’ve *only* put up a .331 wOBA against it.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, DH
5: Toro, 2B
6: Fraley, LF
7: Kelenic, CF
8: Raleigh, C
9: Bauers, 1B
SP: Kikuchi
Game 106, Mariners at Rangers
Marco Gonzales vs. Mike Foltynewicz, 11:35am
A rough game last night, as the M’s lost on a walk-off served up by their new closer, Diego Castillo. Castillo should be fine, and you can’t judge a new acquisition after a game or two, no matter how much Jerry Dipoto urges you to do so for Abraham Toro.
The M’s playoff odds stand now at 2.4%, a product of the A’s improving their team’s bullpen and line-up and, you know, losing some games. The M’s have finally surpassed the odds for the Angels, which is kind of funny, but also something of an indictment of the odds themselves. They’re a fantastic team, but were far enough behind that they sold off starting pitcher Andrew Heaney in a trade with the Yankees. That was expected or perhaps even wise to people watching the AL West, but the odds couldn’t shake their preconception that the Angels were not just better than the M’s, but loads better – enough to make up 4-5 games in a heartbeat. Ah well.
So what does success look like for this team? They need Marco Gonzales to look like himself again, and I’d think they need to identify another starter for 2022. That could be Justus Sheffield making a solid return, or Justin Dunn. It could be a lot of things, but the M’s need to get to their 1,400 innings for the year without further injuries, and that’s a tough job. With pitcher workloads dramatically reduced last year, asking anyone to go 150-180 IP (with the exception of Chris Flexen, who did so in Korea) is…a lot. Spreading innings to Darren McCaughan, the pitchers coming off the IL, Gilbert, etc. is going to be critical, but they have to do so in a way that protects pitchers’ health. More bullpen games or shorter starts? A return of the six-man rotation? Not sure how exactly they’ll get this done, but they need to get it done.
Last year, both Evan White and JP Crawford finished the year strong, and while it didn’t have a lot to do with how they opened up 2021, I’d like to see something similar from the young guys this year. No matter their record, the M’s need to get serious contributions from their young prospects – that’s Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammell when he returns, and Cal Raleigh. Kelenic took a step in the right direction with a bomb in last night’s game, and today they’re going up against Mike Foltynewicz, the starter having a dreadful year for perhaps the game’s worst team at the moment. Folty has served up 2 of Crawford’s 5 HRs on the year, and leads the Majors with a stunning 31 yielded already this season. Only his teammate Jordan Lyles is within 8 of Folty. So, this is a favorable match-up in a park that isn’t as weirdly suppressive of BABIP. The youngsters need to take advantage.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, DH
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, 1B
5: Toro, 2B
6: Kelenic, CF
7: Raleigh, C
8: Bauers, RF
9: Moore, LF
SP: Gonzales
The Mets look like they will not sign Kumar Rocker, the one-time favorite for first-overall-pick in this year’s draft. The Mets are obviously scared about something in his medicals, but most teams assumed there was *something* there, and if they were that scared about it, I’m not sure why they picked him where they did. Worse, they had no contingency plans – potential overslot picks in the 11th-20th rounds to buy preps out of commitments to college teams. As it is, they just get a comp pick at #11 next year with much less leverage than they have now (because they can’t roll it over *again* if they fail to sign their first rounder). Odd situation. I get it from Rocker’s point of view, but it’s still a rough road for him if he needs TJ. He’ll have to do the rehab himself and can’t show off for scouts by playing for Vanderbilt. As one of the biggest amateur pitching prospects in years, he’ll still draw plenty of suitors, but he’s betting on himself and taking a bit of a risk. The Mets are, reliably, Metsing.
The Angels’ top pitching prospect, Reid Detmers, makes his big league debut against A’s prospect Daulton Jefferies, who’ll be making his season debut (he pitched 2 big league IP in late 2020). Detmers, the 10th overall pick in the 2020 draft out of Louisville, shot through the system, striking out 106 in 60 IP, mostly at AA. He was an extreme fly-ball guy in the minors, and thus home runs were his only real weakness. Interesting time for the Angels, as they look to the future; we can probably expect to see Jo Adell back soon. The one-time overall #1 prospect (or close to it) had an Evan-White-esque intro to the majors last year, and has spent 2021 in Salt Lake contending for the AAA HR crown (Taylor Motter’s leading the league right now…which is odd). Still, his strikeout rate remains troubling.
Tacoma beat up on Las Vegas 10-1 behind a great start from Robert Dugger in a tough pitching environment. Jose Marmolejos and Luis Liberato homered. No word on the starters tonight.
It’s former-M’s-propsect day in AA, as Arkansas (behind Tyler Herb) faces Springfield (and Tyler Pike). Pike was drafted in the competitive balance round in 2012, while Herb was a late-round steal in 2014 out of Coastal Carolina.
Everett got two homers from Cade Marlowe to help beat Eugene 5-4 last night. Marlowe overwhelmed lo-A pitching, and has found high-A a bit tougher, but is still holding his own. Hopefully he can have a strong finish for the Frogs, capping off an eye-opening year. Taylor Dollard starts for Everett today. The 22-year-old has 87 Ks in 68 IP, but also 72 hits, the product of a .356 BABIP. We’ll see if that regresses back towards average for him.
Rancho Cucamonga won a back-and-forth game against Modesto last nigh, 8-6.