M’s Acquire IF Adam Frazier
Ok, it’s not the huge free agent acquisition that clarifies the M’s 2022 season, and it’s not a blockbuster trade. But the M’s have made a move that solidifies their 2022 infield, and they didn’t have to part with one of their highly-regarded starting pitching prospects. The M’s went back to one of their usual trading partners, picking up Adam Frazier in exchange for hard-throwing lefty RP prospect Ray Kerr and OF pop-up guy, Corey Rosier.
It’s a good deal, as Frazier was an All-Star last year and helps an offense that could use a lot more contact and batting average than they got last year. Frazier’s played some OF, and had a couple of appearances at 3B for Pittsburgh, but played 2B nearly exclusively last season. He’s a perfectly serviceable 2B as well, so the M’s don’t have to punt on defense. What they probably DO have to punt on is power. Frazier hit 10 HRs a few times for Pittsburgh, and had a decent-ish ISO for the Bucs in half a season in 2018, but gap power is kind of a stretch. In some ways, Frazier’s similar at the plate to his new double play partner, JP Crawford. Both guys had 46 XBH last year, nearly all doubles, and they posted ISOs in the barely-over-100 range. That said, both guys posted above-average wOBA/wRC+ rates, in Crawford’s case thanks to a decent walk rate, and in Frazier’s case by making tons of contact.
Frazier’s 10%+ K rate is one of the lowest in the game, and allows him to overcome one of the lowest average exit velocities in the game – another thing he has in common with Crawford. That sounds ominous, but given what we’ve seen from Ty France and Crawford, it may not be a problem. The key is that Frazier’s an all-field hitter who hits very few fly balls. A low exit velo fly ball hitter is not going to work. A guy who hits line drives in front of OFs can. Frazier posted a LD% of nearly 30% last year, boosting his BABIP and pulling his average over .300. That may be a bit much to expect going forward, but it’s a profile that can play in Seattle right now, and if we learned anything from 2021, it’s that not all profiles can do so.
In a way, he’s the antithesis of Kyle Seager at the plate. At the end of his M’s tenure, Seager had become a dead-pull hitter who hit for plenty of power, which helped overcome strikeouts. I still like Seager, and I think he can help a big league club, but he was perhaps the worst possible fit in T-Mobile, hence his 65 wRC+ at home. Seager’s style and T-Mobile’s BABIP-sapping park effects led Seager to a .165/.245/.329 line at home. If you care for Seager at all, you must do what the M’s have done and set him free. To be clear, I don’t think Frazier is Seager’s replacement, but it’s an acknowledgement that they needed a vastly different style of hitter in their line-up.
Still, T-Mobile didn’t just sap pull hitters’ BABIP – JP Crawford was a below average hitter at home, too. If there’s a concern here, it’s that a lower LD% and maybe some OFs playing shallower in Seattle’s physically small OF can turn him into David-Fletcher-in-2021 and not David-Fletcher-in-2020. Frazier had just a 1% barrel rate last season, less than half of Crawford’s concerning rate. That means there’s more volatility in the profile than you’d otherwise want from a super-high contact/low-strikeout hitter. But there’s volatility everywhere, and a player who can put the ball in play is critical for this M’s line-up. It’s a risk the M’s had to take.
The return for the Padres is former undrafted free agent RP Ray Kerr, who’d just been added to the 40-man roster. Kerr throws extremely hard, and posted an enticing combination of K rate and ground balls this year for Tacoma and Arkansas, but he only threw just shy of 40 innings in his first year as a full-time reliever. He’s already 27, but has a shot at the Pads bullpen given his skillset: a fastball from the left side approaching 100 MPH along with a good splitter. The Pads also get 2021 draft pick Corey Rosier, their 12th rounder out of UNC-Greensboro. Rosier got in 31 games for Modesto after the draft and hit a cool .390/.461/.585, buoyed by a .434 BABIP. It’s a great line, but it’s 31 games in low-A by a late round college hitter. This could be a disastrous trade if this lottery ticket works out for San Diego, but this kind of trade, with the M’s in the position they’re in, is one the M’s make 10 times out of 10.
If there’s a concern apart from Frazier’s volatility, it’s that the move may seem to close off options for the M’s to make a much bigger splash at 2B, say by picking up Marcus Semien. But Frazier’s positional flexibility and the low cost of the deal means he’d have value as a super-utility guy even if the M’s did convince a Semien or a Baez to come to Seattle. The M’s aren’t at a point where they need to closely watch playing time or worry about having too many IFs (or anything else). They simply need to get better, and this move certainly does that. It’s not enough, by any stretch, but it’s a nice first step.
’21 40-Man Preview Extravaganza
Every year, perhaps, I characterize the prospective additions as not particularly thrilling to speculate upon. Whereas in past years, that might be partly due to in-season additions (shoutouts to Matt Brash, who has worn a Mariners uniform without debuting), this year, I would regard is largely attributable to minor league free agency clearing away a lot of fringe candidates. This is not to say that the team can’t re-sign whomever to a ML contract, but if they haven’t already, I don’t think it’s my place anymore to say that they might. It could be that we sign another team’s minor league FAs to MLB contracts! But otherwise, we’re looking at a smaller pool of internal candidates. One is absolutely a lock. A few others, but fewer than usual, you can make a case for.
To recap the rules, we’re looking at a Friday deadline to add college players from the 2018 draft (and before) and sub-nineteen (HS picks, J2 signings) from 2017. Some of those folks have not made particularly strong cases for themselves, so I won’t cover everyone, just the ones that seem like a big deal. We’re all busy. I’m busy. I thought about skipping this post, but why break with tradition? I’m still writing about more guys than you may get from other sources. AND THIS IS MY 400th POST HERE WOW.
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