Cactus League Game 10: Rangers at Mariners – Matt Brash is Making This Team
Robbie Ray vs. Glenn Otto, 1:10pm
After an utterly dominant performance – no hits/walks, 6 Ks in 3 IP – Matt Brash looks to have solidified his grip on the 5th starter gig. It’d be quite a jump for the young Canadian, but at this point, any/all of the arguments against it start to look a bit foolish. Sure, the M’s could theoretically send him down for a couple of weeks to work on his bunt defense or something, but it’s so transparent, it risks alienating Brash. They could have him start in the bullpen to manage innings, but I think they can do so better later in the year when they have more information about how his body’s holding up to the demands of starting. They could argue that veteran presence X has more of a claim to the job, but…no, I’m sorry, they can’t do that. No one involved would get through that press conference with a straight face. If the Cactus League still doesn’t matter for position players (ie. it’s likely Julio Rodriguez heads to Tacoma), it matters more for pitchers.
Part of this is the general willingness, at least pre-2016 CBA, to allow pitchers to, er, pitch their way onto a roster. That’s because of their increased volatility and their specific aging curves (and velocity’s aging curve in particular). But while everyone knew exactly what the Cubs were doing with Kris Bryant, teams have been more willing to start youngsters on the big club on opening day. The M’s did so with Michael Pineda, and again with Brandon Maurer. Pineda dominated from the jump, while Maurer scuffled, but the point was that the team allowed the two to make the opening day roster, and didn’t resort to service time manipulation. If the player worked out, awesome – you get great production, and could, if you want, turn him into Jesus Montero which is *really* cool. If not, as with Maurer, you can send him to the minors, and your service time concerns are moot.
While Maurer, and that hellacious slider that were the talk of the 2013 Cactus League, remains a cautionary tale, Brash seems ready. Sure, the sample size is a lot smaller than Maurer’s 24 IP back in 2013, what Brash is doing, the pitches he’s throwing, stand in rebuke to sample size concerns. Brash’s stuff is as disgusting as any pitcher’s, and it’s worth deploying it at the big league level. The concerns about his control remain, but he’s doing all he can possibly do to dispel them. It’s he, and not George Kirby, who’s flashing plus control at the moment.
Beyond Brash’s own line is the fact that the M’s haven’t tried to bring in a veteran to challenge for the spot. Robbie Ray, today’s starter, is the clear ace, but especially with Justin Dunn’s move to Cincinnati, there really aren’t a lot of in-house alternatives to one of the rookies. There are a bunch of players on minor league deals, but they’re at a disadvantage in talent AND current 40-man status vis a vis Brash. This is Brash’s to lose, and thus far, he ain’t losing. This is, to be clear, as it should be. This should be a competition, and winning the competition should have consequences. The M’s have, to a pretty remarkable degree, bet on themselves in this, their year of contention. Brash makes them better, and at this point absolutely has to be the 5th starter.
Today’s game is a fun one. The Rangers currently lead spring training in hitting; quite a feat given last year’s Texas offense was one of the worst in the league. Part of this is upgrading the roster. Defensive whiz but batting liability Isaiah Kiner-Falefa’s in New York, and the double play team is now Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Part of it may be growth from some younger players, and sure, part of it is spring training luck. But this is a nice test for Robbie Ray, and it’ll be fun to watch him work to a line-up that features some solid RHBs, and it’s also a test for the big lefties in Texas’ order: Seager and 1B Nate Lowe.
Opposing him is Glenn Otto, the one-time Yankees prospect turned Rangers starter. The 26-year old righty was a 5th rounder in 2017 and flashed signs of being a strikeout guy, but inconsistency and the lack of a real season in 2020 left him as something of an afterthought – he was a 20-th-30th best prospect in the Yankees system going into 2021. But then he caught fire, striking out 134 in just under 96 IP. That got him recognition, and it helped him find a path to the bigs after being part of the Joey Gallo trade.
This bat-missing isn’t due to any characteristics of his pitches. He averages 92-93 with his four-seam, and that pitch’s movement is unremarkable. There’s no spin-rate craziness here. What he does have is a slider with very strong horizontal movement. This type – dubbed a “sweeper” by pitching twitter – has shown pretty remarkable results, and it’s part of the reason I’m so high on Brash. But it’s harder to get to it when his fastball and curve (and rare change) don’t do as much. It puts more pressure on Otto to get ahead, for one thing.
All of this may be why Otto’s MLB debut did…not go so well. He got rocked in 3 starts, with MLB hitters putting the ball in play and getting tons of base hits, something MiLB hitters could never do against him. It was only 3 games, of course, and thus Otto stands out as one of the more important players on this quickly-rebuilt Rangers club. Their line-up and bullpen are much improved over last year’s disastrous club. But is the rotation? Jon Gray is a great veteran roll of the dice, the kind of player the Rangers have had success with in the past. Martin Perez is more of a known quantity, and a kind of human stop-loss to avoid having to start someone worse. The Rangers’ 5th starter job is open, though, and it kind of looks like Otto and rookie AJ Alexy are the combatants. Alexy is younger, and has battle severe control issues, but posted great numbers in the minors last year. Whichever guy takes the job, he’s going to need to pitch well if the Rangers are going to make any moves towards contention. Perez isn’t the guy to pitch you to the playoffs, and titular ace Jon Gray’s career line doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. The group needs upside, and Otto offers that (though it comes with a boatload of risk).
1: Crawford, SS
2: France, 1B
3: Winker, LF
4: Haniger, RF
5: Suarez, DH
6: Toro, 2B
7: Juliooooo, CF
8: Raleigh, C
9: Moore, 3B
SP: Ray
Moore’s clearly back in that super-utility role, playing 3B today after playing 1B yesterday and some OF looks earlier.
I’m going to need either or both of Winker/Haniger to wake up now and have a dominant day at the plate. Spring training doesn’t mean much, but it can’t be fun to struggle this much. Have fun, guys.
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6 Responses to “Cactus League Game 10: Rangers at Mariners – Matt Brash is Making This Team”
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Thanks for this.
Do you see Kirby being the next starting option if someone were to need to miss some time? I’d almost be inclined to send Justus to Tacoma to keep him stretched out as a starter because I’d really want to keep Kirby’s innings down as much as possible until mid June. I don’t see them letting him go much beyond 120 innings this year after 67 last year?
Betting on themselves is exactly what we’re seeing. Well put. What makes it a little disheartening is that we know leaning on so much youth wasn’t Plan A. That doesn’t exactly instill confidence. That’s not a jab at Brash, either. They’re just so thin all around. The lack of depth quality makes this feel like déjà vu, though this is still more promising than the 2021 opening day roster.
I think it’s time to reconcile ourselves to the idea that Seattle’s ownership has decided on being Oakland/Tampa North, with the bonus that the attendance and viewership supports more payroll than those markets. If the lack of $20 million in payroll is once again a barrier in winning, that’s fine, the team is still doing OK financially.
^I don’t think that’s case. I think it’s more likely that ownership is hesitant to commit 7-8 years and 9 figures for players that don’t really fit their long-term plans and/or have flags, especially if they are indeed betting on themselves and intend to extend players like Kelenic, Rodriguez, Gilbert, etc. and integrate more youth, such as Kirby, Marte, Stoudt, etc. We know there were offers out there to at least a few of the most sought after names. It would be fun to know what the deal-breakers were and how many of them were outside of Seattle’s control.
The problem is that there’s rarely a perfect long-term match and they lack the stars, or even really good players, that can offset some of the inefficiencies and growing pains and help them contend.
Don’t get me wrong. I think they missed a few really good opportunities and they’ll probably have to do some considerable work at the deadline. I just don’t think they’re the A’s or Rays North. Neither of those teams have made any kind of effort to land a hyped free agent. Getting Ray wasn’t nothing for Seattle, and though they failed to land a free agent bat, there was at least some sort of effort and they’ve shown a willingness to absorb contracts/salary to get the players they want.
That’s not how the A’s or Rays operate. What Seattle’s done this offseason is a different kind of cheap.
It’s a different kind of cheap on the surface because there are fundamental differences in the market and revenue potential. The M’s draw 2x the fans of those teams because they don’t play second banana in their region in a mausoleum. They aren’t a team that draws 6000 fans on a good day.
But they’re underspending Texas, Cincinnati and Minnesota because like the Rays and A’s they know they have cheap talent on the farm, they only want to spend this much, and no further. They’re going to try to win this year on the cheap, in the bottom 10 of MLB. It may work. Or it may be 2023 and we’re going to hear that NEXT year is the big FA push, just you wait.
(The M’s could dump Frazier, Haniger and Giles as FAs and lose 20 million in next year’s salaries… there’s next year’s FA money, just like losing Seager and Kikuchi funded a lot of this year’s FA salary push. They’re nowhere close to pushing into the top 15 of payroll. The discipline is pretty impressive.)
It absolutely is a different kind of cheap and they’re at a different stage than teams like Texas, Minnesota, and Cincinnati. Texas is arguably spending recklessly for a team that is still full of holes and may need another couple of years to fill them. Minnesota is likely at their peak (and may not be much better than Seattle is right now despite that), and Cincinnati is trying to rebuild/reload and cut payroll–just as some of their top farm talent is coming into the picture, which is odd.
Seattle’s at the point where they’ll see what most of their top internal talent offers. My concern is the lack of clear alternatives, and if they endure significant pitching injuries early, they could be in real trouble, really fast. They’re not going to get much help defensively, which just compounds the risk. At the same time, you look at the opening day pitching staff last season and you can’t miss the differences.
They’re probably leaning too heavily on prospects/youth and rebound projects. Spending on players like Suzuki and Stroman could have done wonders to tighten up. Seattle addressed most of their needs. It just wasn’t likely enough.