Cactus League Game 12: Mariners at Cubs
Marco Gonzales vs. Drew Smyly, 1:05pm
It’s the M’s longest-tenured pitcher against a former Mariner who never actually appeared in a game.
It’s kind of amazing to me that the M’s who’ve been on the team longest are now Mitch Haniger and Marco Gonzales, the returns on some of Jerry Dipoto’s earliest trades. They were an early indication that we’d see a lot more roster churn and a lot more moves than perhaps we were used to, and while the pace has slowed a little since then, it’s pretty amazing to look around the team and see how many guys either made their debuts or were acquired in the last 12 months.
With opening day near, the M’s can have a reasonable view at their competition this season. Sure, someone might sign Tommy Pham or something, but the clubs at this point are fairly well set. Lookout Landing has a series of comparisons of the AL West line-ups, rotations, and bullpens. You can get an idea of how things break down at FG’s projections here or BP’s here. Essentially, the M’s look very solid across the board, but lack the depth/excellence in pretty much every position group vis a vis their rivals, not only in the division, but in the AL more broadly. Worse offense than Texas/Anaheim/Houston/Minnesota/Tampa/Boston, solid pitching, but not quite as good as Houston/Boston/Tampa/Toronto, etc.
This is a very very different team than it was last year, and many of the biggest black holes now have decent options in them. But as we’re starting to see in the Fangraphs’ positional rankings, they’re a *little* shy of impact talent. There’s so much more competence than we’ve seen in recent years, but outside of perhaps Jesse Winker, it’s hard to see where the big 6-7 WAR season might come from. I mean, longer term, the answer there is Julio Rodriguez, but it’s not really fair to demand that from him now. The most likely guy to get there might be Robbie Ray, who probably wouldn’t get there in FIP-based WAR, but another big year might get him there in RA-based WAR.
I talked last year about the most *important* player on the team, which was Ty France. France came through in a big way, putting up a big season at the plate and playing an excellent 1B. There are a lot of candidates for such a designation on this club, but the one that comes to mind today is Eugenio Suarez. The M’s desperately needed someone to hit for average last year, given how bad their BA was projected (and it ended up being even worse in real life). It’s a different situation now with Adam Frazier coming in and with JP Crawford showing signs of shaking off his poor BABIP from his first few years and showing an ability to hit for a solid average, albeit without a ton of power. Suarez isn’t going to help in that regard, but he’s a very like for like replacement for Kyle Seager. If he bounces back pretty much at all, he can change the look of the offense, helping to turn more Frazier/France base hits into runs. If he doesn’t, he’s a somewhat expensive bench player, with the younger but not terribly exciting Abraham Toro starting. There’s a really wide range of potential outcomes here, and that’s what makes him so important. He’s either a borderline (or not so borderline) all-star with power and mediocre-to-OK average and defense, or the BABIP falls even further in T-Mobile’s batter-crushing park factors and the M’s have another problem to fix.
1: Julio Rodriguez, CF
2: France, 1B
3: Winker, DH
4: Haniger, RF
5: Suarez, 3B
6: Kelenic, LF
7: Moore, SS
8: Raleigh, C
9: Caballero, 2B
SP: Marcoooo
Jose Caballero was the D-Backs minor leaguer the M’s got in exchange for Mike Leake back in 2019.
Julio’s looking more and more like he has a realistic shot at the opening day line-up. Part of this is due to the fact that the M’s really don’t have a lot of other options for CF. Jarred Kelenic played there last year, but looked out of position and started the spring with an error, and thus hasn’t really had more looks there. Sure, Julio’s not on the 40-man, but neither are some of the minor league options like Billy Hamilton, who’s easily the best defender of the in-house options. The M’s 40-man stands at 39 right now, so there IS a pathway there for Julio if the M’s are willing to do it. To be clear: they should. Julio needs to develop here, no matter what happened with Kelenic. He’s the best choice, and in a year where contention is both possible and somewhat unlikely, it’s all the more important that the M’s maximize their chances by putting their best team out there for 162 games, and not 140-ish.
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Julio is on the 40 man https://www.mlb.com/mariners/roster/40-man
Julio was Rule 5 eligible. He was added along with Alberto Rodriguez and Ray Kerr, who was part of the Adam Frazier swap.
I wonder if we might see both Rodriguez and Hamilton make the club. With the two extra roster spots, perhaps they’ll add a fielder and a reliever, rather than two arms.
I can’t get over how thin they are, especially on the pitching side. Maybe we’ll see an end-of-spring addition as rosters are being finalized.