Game 1, Mariners at Twins
Robby Ray vs Joe Ryan, 1:10pm
Well, here we go. The M’s come into 2022 a much better team and with much higher expectations. The playoffs include ten teams per league, making the task of ending the longest playoff drought easier. It is, thankfully, time to stop talking about great prospects, and time to start watching them progress in MLB.
The M’s got a huge boost to their rotation when they signed the defending AL Cy Young award winner in Robbie Ray. His fastball/slider mix is deadly, and he’s among the game’s best strikeout pitchers. He’s given up hard contact throughout his career, including an abysmal 2020, but his stuff allows him to avoid that problem by missing bats altogether.
His stats last year were great obviously, and his HR totals were marred by a handful of starts in the Jays’ minor league parks in Florida and in Buffalo. It’s possible the stats *underrated* his season. That said, he has never been a model of consistency, with good, bad, and in-between seasons popping up almost randomly.
The Twins present a great early test. This is a team that’s spent big to overhaul their line-up, and it’s that line-up that they hope will keep them in the playoff chase all year. Carlos Correa is the big new star, but the Twins also hope to keep Byron Buxton healthy after he flashed superstar potential last year before a season-ending injury. There’s swing and miss in this line-up, but there are a lot of players who can punish mistakes.
The Twins lost Jose Berrios in trade last year, but are trying to make it up by acquiring Sonny Gray in trade, and some buy-low rotation help from Chris Archer and Chris Paddack. Their rotation got demolished last year, so it’s only up from that. But they had to trade some bullpen arms, and they’ll need their starters to keep it close this year. They’re a better pitching club, but that’s not hard, and there are question marks about all of them.
Despite Gray’s arrival, the Twins gave the opening day start to rookie Joe Ryan, acquired from Tampa in the Nelson Cruz deal. Ryan racked up Ks in the minors throwing almost nothing but fastballs, despite so-so velocity and spin. What he has is a flat approach angle, as Jake Mailhot detailed here. That is, his low arm slot and high spin efficiency give him the high vertical movement of an over-the-top thrower, but with the arm angle of a sinker/horizontal-movement guy. It’s this disconnect between what the batter’s eyes are telling him and what the ball is actually doing that can turn pitchers without 98mph velo into K machines. This is Paul Sewald’s MO, and it’s what has made Freddy Peralta so hard to hit for Milwaukee.
Ryan also has a change-up, slider, and rare curve. He didn’t need the four-pitch mix in the minors, but broke it out for his MLB trial last September. He pitched really well, with a K-BB% of 25%, which is amazing. Somewhat like Ray, he got hurt by the long ball, which makes sense when you post a ground ball rate below 30%.
So the M’s new-look offense has a fun challenge today. They’re facing a guy who threw fastballs 2/3 of the time, down from 70% in the minors, and who throws those heaters up in the zone again and again. Hitters essentially know what many of his pitches will be, and WHERE they’ll be, and Ryan is counting on them to swing through those fastballs anyway. It sounds ludicrous, but there’s Peralta and Sewald, nodding as if it’s the most obvious thing in the world.
This is a perfect match-up for Jesse Winker and perhaps Jarred Kelenic, and if anything it’s an easier introduction to MLB for Julio than most opening day starters with their physics-defying breaking balls. I’m excited to see how this goes.
1: Frazier, 2B
2: France, 1B
3: Winker, LF
4: Haniger, RF
5: Suarez, 3B
6: Kelenic, DH
7: Rodriguez, CF
8: Crawford, SS
9: Raleigh, C
SP: Robbie Ray
The big off-field news today was the 5-year extension JP Crawford signed to be a Mariner through 2026. It’s apparently worth $51 million, including a $5 million signing bonus.
Ryan on the mound for Minnesota is probably why Raleigh’s the starting catcher as well.
So far, so Seattle…France HBP followed by a Haniger home run. Ray’s been sharp through two.
Ray looking like 2021 Ray and old Ray at various times. But he’s through 6 and Seattle still has the lead.
France on third. Would be good if Suárez could not strike out. Better if he could bring France home.
And it’s a ground out.
Top of the 9th, Raleigh on first and Toro isn’t pinch-running?
And Frazier gets robbed again.
Ten teams per league? Wow, I am going to feel bad when the Mariners miss by one game again.
^He obviously mixed up playoff slots with the number of pre-game drinks he had. I would have made the same mistake.
Nice start from Ray. Nice debut for Winker. Hopefully we’ll see more offense tomorrow.
Suarez looked really bad at the plate….behind hittable pitches, not having good at bats. Really need him to contribute