Game 14, Royals at Mariner: The Marinerizing of Baseball
Chris Flexen vs. Brad Keller, 6:40pm
I mentioned it before the season, but I was happy to see MLB bring in humidors at *all* parks in MLB, and not just 5-10. It was a weird state of affairs where the same context produced dramatically different results, and magnified pre-existing park effects. In Seattle, you can make a case that it’s depressed scoring more so than the old outfield dimensions. Unable to get any base hits, and with the ball not flying as far, the Mariners slash line cratered. Nearly everything put in play was an out.
So, wouldn’t bringing in humidors result in other ballparks playing like T-Mobile in 2021? No, I thought: it’ll have different impacts in different places (potentially increasing offense in places like San Francisco), but standardizing the way the ball is stored might eliminate unintended consequences of doing pretty fundamental things differently in different places. Maybe the ball will move more predictably (except in Colorado; sorry Rockies), maybe a new ball and the uniform humidor policy will usher in a new era of the game, with more action, more hits, more scoring on plays *other* than home runs.
Instead, what we’re seeing in the season’s first few weeks is…ok, yeah, pretty much every ballpark is playing like T-Mobile park in 2021. The league’s slash line thus far is .231/.308/.369. Not only did we slip back into the little batting ice age of 2010-2014, we’ve gone right past it, past 1968. It’s never been this low. But for those of us living on the leading edge, those of us watching the future emerge each day, those of us who lived through an exciting preview of the new world, this looks familiar. The M’s hit .226/.303/.385 last season, humidor and all.
The area that’s seen the biggest impact is the home run. They’re not just down, they’re falling through the floor. HRs per plate appearance are at 2.4%, down from 3.1% in April of 2021, and 3.4% in April of 2019. I’m not really sure what MLB anticipated, but I doubt it was this kind of impact.
That’s something of a theme these past several years: MLB is flummoxed by its own roll-out of a change or tweak. I think many fans are a bit sick of the juiced-ball era, and want to see runs scored in other ways. But the problem is that defenses are too good, pitching is too good, and the parks too physically small to score runs in other ways. Deadening the ball on hitters raised on “elevate and celebrate” – hitters who were richly rewarded for this approach in the bygone era of…2019 – will produce *outs* not hits. I know, I know: balls in play are good for viewers, even if they don’t result in hits. But I’m not sure a league-wide .230 average is a great way to sell the game, either. I don’t know; I’m a Mariners fan. I live in the future.
Of course, the greatest irony of all is that the one place that didn’t get the memo seems to be Seattle. League wide runs per game has dipped under 4 for the first time since the mid-1970s, but in Seattle, we’re playing Kingdome style: the M’s are scoring 5.67 runs per game. Sure, they’re averaging 3 per contest on the road, but hey, maybe we’re watching a new future emerge for the second straight year. Or maybe some intern thoughtfully left Seattle’s humidor unplugged. If that’s the case, that intern is a hero.
1: Frazier, DH
2: France, 1B
3: Winker, LF
4: Suarez, 3B
5: Crawford, SS
6: Toro, 2B
7: Rodriguez, CF
8: Kelenic, RF
9: Raleigh, C
SP: Flexen
Royals starter Brad Keller posted brilliant ERAs and mediocre K rates from 2018-2020. It seemed like a fluke until physicist Barton Smith’s research into the seam shifted wake, the odd, non-Magnus Force-induced movement. Smith was a seam shifted wake savant, giving his pitches odd movement, producing weak contact (but not whiffs). Eno Sarris wrote this great primer on SSW and Keller before the 2021 season that was to be his coming out party. Aaaaand then Keller got knocked around mercilessly last year. He looked like a different guy: higher K rate, but way too many walks and, in a first for him, a home run problem. How’s he faring this year? The K rate’s back down, he’s got a BABIP under .200, and an ERA under 2. The less said about his 2021, the better, I guess.
Sugarland’s in Tacoma tonight. They beat up on the host Rainiers yesterday, 6-3.
Arkansas beat Corpus Christi 9-5 thanks to a great start from Levi Stoudt. Cade Marlowe had 3 RBIs, and Zach DeLoach tripled. The two teams are back at it tonight.
Everett beat Tri-City 4-3 today, with Bryce Miller tossing 6 1-hit shutout innings for the win. Tri-City came back to win last night’s contest 6-3, but that had nothing to do with Adam Macko who struck out 10 in 6 IP, yielding 2 R on 5H and 0 walks.
Modesto demolished Rancho Cucamonga 11-1, thanks to a dominant start from William Fleming, who K’d 8 in 6 IP of 1-hit, no run, 1 BB baseball. Fleming is definitely one to keep an eye on; he had a sharp fastball and a very good slider working. He was the M’s 11th rounder out of Wake Forest last year.
Comments
One Response to “Game 14, Royals at Mariner: The Marinerizing of Baseball”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
It just hit me that 3 out of the 6 first-round draft picks in the Dipoto-era have experienced serious injuries and have cloudy futures.
Talk about terrible luck.