Game 129, Mariners at Tigers: What’s With Julio?
George Kirby vs. Matt Manning, 4:10pm
Absolutely great pitching match-up between two up and coming starting pitchers, AND between two CFs who began the year as highly anticipated prospects. Riley Greene has had some growing pains, and actual, physical pain to work through (he dislocated his foot on a foul ball in spring training), while Julio Rodriguez has become an icon. That said, Julio hasn’t quite been himself at the plate lately. After a lightning-fast course correction, Julio’s K rate tumbled in June and July, but it’s creeping back up lately. As Twitter user Ben Knibbe mentioned, this is due in large part because he’s expanding his zone: he’s swinging at more out-of-zone pitches, and even though he’s making contact, it’s not the good kind. Essentially, nothing good comes from such swings. Julio’s success at the plate depends on really hard contact. When he’s hitting the ball hard, he does well, and he’s stopped doing so consistently. What’s going on?
At the beginning of the season, Julio had a problem. Breaking balls were eating him up, and when he made contact, it was typically on the ground. His GB% was over 40% in April, and over *50%* in May. But he made an adjustment, and started being both more selective on breaking balls AND more dangerous on them. Julio’s been one of the best breaking ball hitters since June – not in the Aaron Judge stratosphere, but in the top 25 in MLB. But as I said the other day, he hasn’t been able to maintain his success against fastballs. He’s hitting worse overall against straight stuff since mid-June. He’s been either/or this year.
And a specific kind of fastball, too. Perhaps in an attempt to hit the ball in the air, Julio’s expanding his zone upwards, especially on fastballs. Here’s a heatmap of Julio’s swings against fastballs through June 15th. Not bad. Some questionable swings, but great for a young rookie.
Heatmap of Julio’s FB swings through June
Since that time, though, he’s expanded his zone. Notice the increases in swings above the top of the zone.
Heatmap of Julio’s swings on FBs since June.
If we focus on the current month, it’s even more obvious. Julio’s trying to take high fastballs and drive them for home runs.
Heatmap of Julio’s FB swings in August
This is why his out-of-zone swing rate is up, and it’s why he’s making worse contact. It’s not all bad; he took a Carl Edwards Jr. pitch above the zone out against Washington, though that was a breaking ball. He’s hitting the ball at a higher angle since June, and it’s probably a good sign. But just as he made an adjustment once, he’s going to have to do so again. High heaters have been tempting pitches since baseball was created, but hitters have to know not to chase them all. Julio’s probably better positioned to do so than most, given the way he’s learned to avoid chase pitches, especially bendy ones. This should be a comparatively easier fix.
1: Julioooo, CF
2: Winker, LF
3: Haniger, RF
4: Suarez, 3B
5: France, 1B
6: Santana, DH
7: Frazier, SS
8: Raleigh, C
9: Toro, 2B
SP: Kirby
Toro’s back with Dylan Moore on the IL with a pectoral issue. With JP Crawford also dealing with injury, Adam Frazier makes his second start at SS in the bigs, and first since 2017.
Matt Manning shook off a rough rookie season last year and is pitching very well for Detroit. He doesn’t get a lot of strikeouts, but has managed contact rather well – he’s got a wOBA on contact of just .300. It’s not Justin Verlander/Paul Sewald good, but you can be a very successful pitcher if batters have a wOBACon that low. The star of his arsenal might be the hard slider at 83, but the workhorse is a sneaky-good four-seam fastball at 93-94. Batters are slugging .304 on it this year, and hitting them, on average, at 87 mph. These are results you’d expect from a breaking ball, not a four-seamer thrown half the time.
Game 126, Guardians at Mariners: Celebration of Life
Logan Gilbert vs. Shane Bieber, 7:10pm
In a day that will be remembered fondly for decades, the M’s have signed Julio Rodriguez to a massive (and complicated) extension. Essentially, the minimum guarantee is 8 years and $210 million, but with escalators and team options could run until the late 2030s and approach $500 million ($470M). It’s a big, big deal, and Julio will be a Mariner for a long, long time. Tonight’s game will be a celebration, a party.
Is it a fair deal? Fangraphs’ Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projection-based look suggests it balances the risks to team and player pretty well, and that’s my own view. The massive top-line, maximum outlay happens if Julio becomes what it looks like he’s becoming, and the team isn’t crushed if he doesn’t.
More importantly for all of us, Julio will be a Mariner for 7-8 more years at the very least. We’re finally getting the superstar we haven’t had since Felix, and unlike so many teams, we’re not dreading the arrival of big arb paydays or imminent free agency. The M’s developed a star, the star stays, and the fans benefit. This is how it’s supposed to go.
Even more, tonight’s game is a celebration of what can happen when you don’t try and squeeze every financial advantage at the expense of players. The M’s May or not feel burned by their pre arb Evan White deal. Jarred Kelenic sure felt burned by the M’s insistence he sign one if he wanted to see the majors in 2020, and then by waiting until gaining an extra year of club control in 2021.
I’m probably too optimistic, but this deal and the playoff-hunt context it was signed in, *really should* put an end to all of those service time shenanigans. The M’s had Julio up on day one. If he struggled, they could have sent him down. But they made a choice not to muck around with his salary, and I assume Julio was aware of that heading into these negotiations. Had they left him down, his adjustment period may have come not in April but June, and if that was the case, I’m not sure the M’s are in wild card position right now.
Bring players up when they’re ready. If they’re awesome, pay them to stick around. This is the easiest stuff ever, and it’s an indictment of baseball that it’s comparatively rare. But let’s celebrate. Let’s celebrate Julio potentially being a Mariner for decades. Let’s celebrate the mundane but cool idea of doing the obvious right thing and not the easier, “clever” thing. This is the first night of a new era. Certainly for the M’s and their fans, but hopefully for all of baseball.
1: Julioooo, CF
2: Winker, LF
3: Haniger, DH
4: Suarez, 3B
5: Santana, 1B
6: Frazier, 2
7: Raleigh, C
8: Crawford, SS
9: Haggerty, RF
SP: Gilbert
Game 124, Nationals at Mariners
George Kirby vs. Anibal Sanchez, 1:10pm
The first of two consecutive day games day, as the Nats bid farewell to the Northwest. Normally, that’d mean that we wouldn’t see them for several years – but in something of a surprise, MLB has completely changed the way they schedule. Gone are the strongly imbalanced schedule we’ve grown used to with 19 games against divisional opponents. Interleague play goes up, meaning each team will play every other team every year. That’s…that’s a big change.
The M’s 2023 schedule includes home series against the Rockies, Brewers, Cardinals, Pirates, Marlins, Nationals, Padres and Dodgers. I’m in no hurry to see the Nationals live any time soon, but this is a great opportunity to get to see teams and players who don’t come out this way very often. And as Grant Brisbee points out, there are fewer long road trips – lots of two-team road swings, and fewer 9-10-11 game slogs. I think he’s right that players (and families!) will like this new schedule a lot more. For the M’s in particular, it might even out the travel miles logged. Seattle will always lead the league in miles traveled, but anything we can do to balance the travel requirements for west coast teams would be appreciated. It’s an oft-ignored thumb on the scale for east coast/central teams.
Last night’s attendance, on a Tuesday, against a team that is openly tanking and playing sub-MLB-quality ball, was over 38,000. The last Tuesday home game, which came against the Yankees, also got over 38,000. I’m a bit stunned at how quickly attendance rose with the M’s playoff odds. The turning point of course was the long winning streak, leading to around 40,000 for a weekend series against Houston in late July. Since we’ve hit August, the attendances have remained high even for mid-week games. The fans noticed the team, and the team has clearly noticed that it’s a lot louder than it was in May/June, when a Tuesday game would get 13-16,000 fans. The marketing around watching the team improve, the talent pipeline/prospects helped prime the pump to a degree, but once the team got good – and *immediately* after they started winning – the fans came out in droves. I’m a bit surprised by it, but it’s cool to watch.
1: Rodriguez, CF
2: Winker, LF
3: Haniger, RF
4: Suarez, 3B
5: France, 1B
6: Santana, DH
7: Crawford, SS
8: Raleigh, C
9: Moore, 2B
SP: Kirby
Hey, so how’s that cool new slider working for George Kirby? Remember, Kirby took a few MPH off of his primary breaking ball, creating more horizontal sweep. Would this improve its comparatively poor whiff rate? Uh, no, it does not seem to be doing that. The pitch remains a problem, as batters are slugging .583 against it, and it’s forced him to go to his curve more these days, but that pitch isn’t all that great either.
So far, it hasn’t seemed to matter, as his fastball is a true weapon. Since bringing in a sinker as well, batters can’t just sit on his four-seam (primary) fastball, and thus the whiff rate on it has gone up. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a pitcher post a higher whiff rate on his four-seam and sinker than on his slider before, and if we go by whiffs per swing, the four-seam rate is nearly double that of his slider. Bizarre. If he can ever figure this out, he’s going to be really, really tough to beat. Even as it is, with a poor swinging strike rate, he’s a tough match-up, particularly because he’s simply not going to give up free passes, and he’s able to pitch ahead in the count so much. He’s gone 0-1 to 206 batters, while going 1-0 to 130.
Game 123, Nationals at Mariners
Robbie Ray vs. Erick Fedde, 7:10pm
The execrable Nationals shuffle into Seattle for a brief two-game set before the M’s face an actual Wild Card contender in Cleveland starting on Thursday. I talked a lot about Erick Fedde when the M’s faced him in July, but the cliff’s notes version is that his K rate (never really strong) is down this season, while his walks are up. He’s always given up plenty of hard contact and dingers, and that hasn’t changed. Perhaps the biggest change is that he’s been hurt; he was just activated off the IL to make this start. His overall results have been better than replacement level, but especially this year, the gap isn’t exactly huge. Fedde is exactly the sort of pitcher you’d expect a team cruising to over 100 losses would run out there to eat innings, and, shoulder-willing, that’s what he’ll try and do. No one’s *excited* about Fedde, but they can’t exactly forfeit games at this point. Though I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve looked into it, especially post-Juan Soto trade.
Robbie Ray’s season really is something of an enigma, and it looks a bit like a microcosm of his volatile career. It’s kind of weird, because it’s not like Ray has completely reinvented himself as a pitcher: he throws pretty hard, has a good slider, and strikes out quite a few batters. He can be wild, but, with the exception of the shortened 2020 season, not especially so. He gives up loud contact when batters hit the ball, but his results on contact have fluctuated pretty wildly. He’s won a Cy Young, and he’s been so bad he was essentially let go for free by Arizona in 2020. He had an ERA of near 5 in 2016, and solidly under 3 in 2017, despite fielding-independent marks that were nearly identical – you get the idea.
So perhaps it’s not really a surprise that his season line is the sum of very, very volatile stretches. He was pretty bad in the first two months, with an ERA of near 5 at the end of May. After trying out the sinker he hadn’t thrown in more than a year in early June, he reeled off 7 brilliant starts – a 1.41 ERA and 49 Ks to 15 walks. Again though, part of this seemed to be sequencing; his FIP in April-May wasn’t *that* much higher than his FIP in June-July. But whereas he couldn’t avoid big innings, or a bunch of hits strung together, early on, he wiggled out of trouble later on. His last five starts, though, have been out and out bad. He’s gone 25 IP, given up 29 hits including 5 HRs, with an ERA well over 5 and a FIP approaching it. To be fair, two of those came against him nemesis team in Houston, and he pitched pretty well against the Yanks and Angels. But the M’s need the good version of Ray back.
Part of this has to do with his sinker. When he went to it and had immediate success, people hailed it. It coincided with his great results, and it caught batters who weren’t expecting it. Since then, he’s relied on it as his primary fastball – why wouldn’t he? Because it’s his worst pitch. I mentioned this before, but since switching to it, the success he’s had has come as a result of batters doing much, much worse…on his four-seam. They’re struggling against his slider too. Early in the year, he was a two-pitch pitcher, and he paid a price for that. I’m not saying he needs to shelve the sinker again, but he’s got to be more judicious. Batters are hitting .277 with a .479 SLG% off the sinker, and have slumped to . They were slugging .485 against his four-seam at the time he added in the sinker; since then, they’re down to .313! It’s not a binary decision, he could – and should – have two separate fastballs. But he needs to throw a bit more of the old four-seam, especially to right-handed batters.
Of course, even all of this is subject to good old Robbie Raysian volatility, right? With these multiple buckets of in-season data, we’re grabbing plenty of noise along with what we hope are some signals. There’s an interaction at play, too, that makes it harder to say definitively that more four-seamers = better, especially given what happened in April/May. But Ray’s already learned the value of changing things up on the fly mid-season. I hope he gives it another go.
There was some Twitter discussion about Carlos Santana the other day, and how his season wRC+ (comprehensive batting stat) is more or less what Mike Ford’s was, if you can remember who Mike Ford was. They got there in different ways, with Ford drawing walks and Santana swatting homers, but neither line was, on the whole, good. But what Carlos Santana has been is insanely clutch. He’ll only get a few hits a month, it seems, but each one is exquisitely timed to win a game. It’s why Santana ranks 3rd in MLB in Fangraphs’ Clutch score, essentially a ratio of how a batter hits in close/late/high-leverage situations to how they hit in other, less critical, plate appearances. If you scroll down, Abraham Toro of all people cracks the top 25.
So, a big part of this is the formula itself. Because the denominator is a player’s overall line (or line in non-clutch situations), it kind of helps to be, uh, real bad in those other situations. Santana and Toro have that part down pat. Toro has an OPS under .600 in low-leverage spots, and under *.500* in medium-leverage spots. His high-leverage line is nothing to write home about, but it’s comfortably over .600, and he HAS had some game winning hits. Santana’s OPS of .563 in low-leverage spots looks like it’s DFA-worthy, but in high leverage PAs? He’s got a line of .263/.396/.579. Baseball.
Of course, for some to soar in a stat, others must face-plant. The second *worst* clutch score in the game belongs to Cal Raleigh. This was fairly surprising, though I have noted a few late HRs in blowouts recently. Raleigh apparently has a slash line of .135/.154/.243 in high-leverage spots, though he’s only had 39 trips to the plate in them. Am I worried? Nah; his line in low-leverage spots is closer to being reliable than below-40-PAs, and he’s done well enough that his clutch score was always going to be in jeopardy. The stat, as you can imagine, doesn’t have year-over-year consistency – it’s more of a “for fun” thing, or how it *felt* watching a hitter more than something that describes a hitter’s talent level. But it’s amazing, as is the fact that the M’s pitching staff as a whole is #1 in baseball in team clutch, and 2nd in baseball since June 1 (they were in negative territory before June).
1: Julioooo, CF
2: France, 1B
3: Winker, LF
4: Haniger, RF
5: Santana, DH
6: Suarez, 3B
7: Crawford, SS
8: Raleigh, C
9: Frazier, 2B
SP: Ray
The M’s have traded a lot of prospects and a lot of pitchers over the past year, but file away the name Bryan Woo, who won the NWL’s pitcher of the week and continues to rack of K’s. Another of the M’s draft picks out of Cal Poly a year after they got current AA star Taylor Dollard from the same school, Woo throws in the mid-90s and seems to have a developing change – his pre-season reports on that pitch weren’t great, but tell that to high-A batters.
Speaking of Dollard, he’s pitching tonight, and doing quite well against Tulsa.
Game 121, Mariners at Athletics
Logan Gilbert vs. James Kaprielian, 4:15 (This game is on Fox’s national telecast, not on ROOT)
The M’s pitching staff has been much better since mid-June, with some of the stragglers sent packing and the remaining M’s throwing better breaking balls. But we, er, at least *I*, haven’t given enough attention to the bats during this stretch. At first you might say, “Of course not; they’re actually hitting *worse* since June 15th than they were before!” This is, strictly speaking, true. But let’s look at them anyway.
Before 6/15, the book was out on the M’s line-up: throw high fastballs and low breaking balls. It’s a fairly similar book on *all* teams, and thus it was one the M’s were prepared for. Against all fastballs in the upper-third of the zone, the M’s wOBA was.349, third-best in MLB. Their 18 HRs on such pitches had them tied with Houston for the most in baseball.
But since mid-June, the M’s have lost the ability to destroy high heat. Since 6/15, their wOBA on such pitches is just .251 to hunt high heaters, good for 25th in MLB. Their 19 HRs on them is nothing special.
Part of the reason for this turnaround has been adjustments by pitchers, as high heat was the one thing Jarred Kelenic, for example, was hitting well. Julio Rodriguez has fallen off his early-season pace as well. So is this why the M’s offense hasn’t really gotten going, aside from last night’s 10-run outburst? Maybe, but remember: that scouting report had two components. Since 6/15, the M’s have actually gotten much better at hitting *breaking balls*. Their 36 HRs is second most in MLB since mid-June, trailing only the Yankees. And just as the book got out on Julio and Cal Raleigh, the two youngsters adjusted: Raleigh and Julio rank 1-2 in wOBA on breaking/offspeed stuff since 6/15, and are 1-2 in HRs against them (Cal has *9*).
This is a pretty exciting thing to see. The book got out on Kelenic, and he and Julio were seeing a steady diet of soft stuff. Kelenic couldn’t really adjust, and he continued to struggle on bendy pitches in Tacoma, even as he continued to hit fastballs. Given the trajectory of Evan White and, to this point, Kelenic, it looked like the M’s really struggled to help their prospects make the kinds of adjustments all young players need to make. They’re going to need to hit MLB-caliber breaking stuff, and if they can’t learn that, their ceilings are always going to be low. When I’ve lamented the M’s record with young hitters, this is pretty much exactly what I mean. It looked like a pattern, and if such a gifted hitter as Kelenic struggles with it, what chance would a lower-average, high swing-and-miss guy like Cal Raleigh have? A…a pretty good chance, as it turned out.
Julio is such a unique player, and his adjustments won’t really surprise anyone. This is not to take credit away from the M’s, who’ve pretty clearly helped his development. But it’s just tough to credit *anyone* for Julio, sort of like with Ken Griffey Jr: the guy was just born to do this. So to see the growth in Cal Raleigh has been perhaps my favorite thing this season. That totally changes the outlook for the M’s.
1: Julioooo, CF
2: France, 1B
3: Winker, LF
4: Haniger, DH
5: Crawford, SS
6: Suarez, 3B
7: Frazier, 2B
8: Raleigh, C
9: Lamb, RF
SP: Gilbert
Game 115, Mariners at Rangers
Marco Gonzales vs. Dane Dunning, 4:10pm
The story of the M’s in 2022 was a simple one: would their improvement in actual talent make up for a decline in the historic, downright bizarre luck from their 2021 campaign? Would they win enough to make it to the postseason without whatever let them post a winning record at home despite hitting .214 as a club there? For several months, the answer seemed to be no, no they wouldn’t despite the best efforts of Julio Rodriguez. Then, it suddenly looked like it might be enough, particularly after bolstering their talent at the deadline.
The first few weeks of the second half offered a third answer, a synthesis of hypothesis (more talent) and antithesis (less luck): why not both? Even without Julio, the team is simply better than last year’s version. But take that new talent level, and add in Carlos Santana’s 2021-like timing and flair for the dramatic? Now you’ve got something. Take that – that luck/talent bouillabaisse, and bring back a healthy Julio? How does that sound? Now stop playing good teams and face Texas? Who’s hungry?
Dane Dunning continues to confound, as he’s a perfectly effective pitcher despite lackluster stuff, and whose K rate continues to fall. Texas pitching staff looked like a weakness coming into the year, and boy has that been borne out. Dunning’s been one of their better/more consistent starters, especially as Martin Perez declines, but he hasn’t been anywhere close to enough.
Dunning has a deep repertoire of sinker, slider, change, and curve. He throws the change plenty, but he’s still posting gigantic platoon splits this season: lefties, get ready to hit. But he’s also got sizable home/road splits, and has been much better at home; it’s another reminder that Texas isn’t a hitter’s paradise anymore, as hard as that is to get used to.
Marco’s still in the rotation despite struggling as much as Flexen did (if not more). He’s still got a good seasonal line, and he’s facing a lesser opponent so let’s hope the M’s can give him a cushion and let him coast.
1: Julioooo, CF
2: France, 1B
3: Haniger, DH
4: Winker, LF
5: Suarez, 3B
6: Frazier, 2B
7: Raleigh, C
8: Crawford, SS
9: Haggerty, RF
SP: Gonzales
The Arkansas Travelers completed their second no-hitter of the year. Prelander Berroa, one of the pop up prospects after being acquired from San Francisco, went the first 5 IP with 11 Ks and two walks.
With yesterday’s win, the M’s passed the slumping Blue Jays to nab the #1 wildcard spot, meaning if the season ended today, we wouldn’t it only get playoff baseball, but playoff baseball *in Seattle.* This has been a remarkable few months; the Orioles hot streak hasn’t ended, and trading their closer and offensive cornerstone hasn’t slowed them down. Cleveland is making its move as well, helped by a White Sox team beset by injuries and ineffectiveness.
Game 113, Yankees at Mariners: About Last Night
Robbie Ray vs. Nestor Cortes, 1:10pm
Baseball’s long season has a tendency to de-value individual games. The shape of the season, the relevance of games to the postseason or World Series is something that can only reveal itself over time. The individual games make up the season, but the contribution of any one of them isn’t all that important. This is a blessing and a curse: it’s nice not to worry too much after an awful loss, but the relentless pace means we have to move on after a particularly noteworthy win. Last night’s instant classic was a game we’ll remember for years, a light so bright, it stands out in the fog of dozens and dozens of games, and decades of postseason drought. It was a taut, brilliantly pitched game with great defense and unlikely moments, capped by perhaps the most unlikely of offensive heroes. It’s a reminder that individual games have a power far beyond their contribution to playoff odds.
And the M’s felt it, too. Ryan Divish’s wonderful article on the game has quotes from Scott Servais marveling at the atmosphere and saying it was one of the best games he’s ever seen. While this blog and many fans downplay the impact of morale or momentum in the game, you really get the sense that games like last night’s fuel the team’s belief in themselves and their quest for the playoffs. But now the hard part starts: they have to go back and play the Yankees again hours after walking them off. Last night didn’t feel like just another game to the manager, the players, the fans, and even the beat writers. Still, the impact of the game wanes if they can’t keep winning.
Baltimore’s comeback against the Jays meant that a loss last night would’ve brought the M’s and O’s into a tie for the third wild card position. The walk-off pushed the M’s lead over Baltimore to a game, and they moved a half-game up on Tampa and into the 2nd wild card position. Wild card positions are much more important this year, with the top wild card team hosting the 2nd, while the 3rd wild card team plays a road series against the 3rd-best division winner (whoever wins the AL Central). Getting that top spot would be absolutely massive, as it would ensure Seattle would actually get to host a playoff game. The Jays are only one game ahead of Seattle as we start play today.
1: Frazier, 2B
2: France, 1B
3: Haniger, RF
4: Suarez, 3B
5: Santana, DH
6: Torrens, C
7: Moore, SS
8: Haggerty, LF
9: Kelenic, CF
SP: Ray
The M’s roster crunch was exacerbated by the trade deadline deals and the return of some players from injury. Today, the first series of moves to resolve that crunch came down, with Kyle Lewis and Brennan Bernardino going to Tacoma while Diego Castillo and Dylan Moore have been activated from the IL. Julio Rodriguez is still a few days away, with the plan sounding like he’d be activated on Friday. With Curt Casali still on a rehab assignment, it certainly looks like Luis Torrens could get DFA’d soon, and the M’s would have to make more moves to activate Matthew Boyd. For now, Jarred Kelenic remains, though he figures to make way for Julio soon.
In another move, the M’s have officially moved Chris Flexen to the bullpen. They’re trying to keep the hot George Kirby in the rotation and squeeze as many IP as they can before they need to shut him down, so Flexen’s stay in the pen may be temporary. He was warming up at the end of last night’s game.
It’s legitimately great to see Dylan Moore back. His flexibility can help a roster that had started to look a bit limited with Haniger/Lewis/Santana all needing to DH at least part of the time. Sam Haggerty’s emergence has helped the M’s immensely in Moore’s absence, and it’ll be interesting to see if Haggerty can navigate the incoming roster moves. It’d be tough to send him down at the moment, especially to keep a more limited player like Santana.
Game 111, Yankees at Mariners:
Logan Gilbert vs. Jameson Taillon, 7:10pm
The M’s enter today’s game with Fangraphs’ playoff odds of 83.5%. Better than a 4 in 5 shot. Is that the high water mark during this long playoff drought? Well, no, but it’s pretty remarkable nonetheless. The M’s peaked in 2018 at 88%, but that was with a lot more season left: they hit that mark in early July. The 2014 M’s shockingly managed to crest 60% in *September* of that year, though that was more of a flash in the pan as the graph of their odds shows. This isn’t exactly uncharted territory for our fearless Mariners, but it’s close. And that’s why they need to keep the Yankees ice cold in this series.
It seems odd to say about a club that *still* leads the American League in winning percentage, but the Yankees haven’t looked quite right for a while now. The problem has been pitching, where their 4.63 ERA (their FIP is better, but not good) is one of the worst in the game the past 30 days. As we saw in the Bronx, one of the primary culprits has been the home run ball; they rank 27th in HR rate over the past month.
But guess who’s 26th? Seattle. The M’s FIP is actually just a tiny bit *worse* than the Yankees in the past month, and their HR rate is essentially indistinguishable. The only thing differentiating them is strand rate. The Yankees haven’t been able to end innings with men on base, while the M’s excellent relief crew is helping them work around walks and hits. That sounds – and often IS – volatile, and perhaps not the kind of thing you’d want to hang your hat on in a tough series. But at least a part of it seems to be the result of a considered strategy. The M’s don’t really care what you do with no one on base.
With no one on base, the M’s pitchers have yielded 84 HRs. That’s 3rd most in the game, and the teams around them are firmly in the rebuilding/hide-your-eyes camp. The Nats and Cubs, two of the absolute worst teams in the game, have given up a few more, while Oakland and Cincinnati, *also* two of the absolute worst teams in the game, have yielded a couple fewer. Looking at the list, you’d think this is just a grouping of the worst pitching staffs in the game, and to be fair, Fangraphs/Baseball Prospectus do not think much of Seattle’s hurlers. But while Seattle’s team ERA (this is a super-crude measure, and I half-apologize for using it, but go with me here) is 4th highest with no one on, it’s 4th *lowest* with men on base.
Some of this is the park. The M’s benefit from a low batting average on balls in play, because T-Mobile is small and the M’s infield is generally sure-handed. But some of it is approach. Let’s look at tonight’s starter. With no one on, Logan Gilbert is a strike-throwing, bat-missing pitcher. He’s got a career 10.24 K/9 in those situations, but a 1.34 HR/9 rate. With no one on, he’s going to challenge you in the strike zone, and if you can drive it, good for you. With men on, his K rate drops all the way down to 7.2, but he’s just under 1 HR/9. What’s he doing differently?
This is why Gilbert is such an odd pitcher. With no one on, Gilbert relies *heavily* on his fastball. It’s his best pitch, so if you beat him, you have to beat his four-seam. It’s susceptible to elevated contact, and thus HRs, though. What he’s doing in 2022 is to use his slider to generate contact. This season, his *slider* has generated balls in play more often than his fastball. That’s pretty rare. And whereas last year, his command of it was spotty, leading to a ton of called balls *and* hard-hit balls, this year, he’s getting more fieldable balls in play. It’s pretty normal for pitchers to get lower exit velocities off of their breaking stuff, and Gilbert’s definitely does. But it’s *still* not a great pitch on its own. If he ever figures out how to miss bats the way he does with his fastball, he’ll take the next step in his development. For now though, this is pretty good. His slider was a real problem last year, and the incremental improvements this year have turned him into a real asset in the rotation. His approach now lets him reliably strand more runners than you’d think given his lack of runners-on-base strikeouts.
1: Frazier, 2B
2: France, 1B
3: Haniger, RF
4: Winker, LF
5: Suarez, 3B
6: Santana, DH
7: Crawford, SS
8: Raleigh, C
9: Haggerty, RF
SP: Gilbert
Game 110, Angels at Mariners
Marco Gonzales vs. Tucker Davidson, 1:10pm
The M’s series win in the Bronx stabilized their playoff odds after the stumble in Houston, and importantly gave them some margin of error as they try to hold off Cleveland/Chicago for the wild card. As we approach 50 games to go, they don’t have to win series against the elite teams they may face, they just have to fare decently well against their remaining schedule. And critically, that remaining schedule is the easiest among wild card combatants. Sweeps would be nice, but they’re not required. Look, one of those teams is going to get hot, so the M’s can’t likely just coast in, but they don’t have to do more than they’ve already done.
All of that is a prelude to saying that the M’s desperately need this game. The Angels, a team coming into this series in utter disarray, with only the flimsiest excuse of a rotation behind Shohei and fresh off of trading away their closer and best non-Ohtani/Trout position player, have won two of three in Seattle. Losing the series just flubs away the momentum they just left New York with, and it puts an even stronger spotlight on an offense that’s scored 2 runs per game thus far against a given-up club. They’ll do so today against perhaps the Angels worst starter, Tucker Davidson. Davidson was the return from Atlanta in the trade that sent Raisel Iglesias to the Braves, and was coming off a very disappointing year. He made four so-so starts for Atlanta last year, and while he was the beneficiary of some luck, he put up solid-if-unremarkable peripherals.
This year, though, he’s lost the strike zone. Coming into today, he’s walked 13 and plunked one against just 10 strikeouts. He throws a four-seam, a slider, and a curve, but he’s just not hitting the zone enough, leading to a whole bunch of taken pitches and walks. Davidson is a lefty, and some combination of arm angle and mechanics seem to make his fastball absurdly easy to spot for right-handed bats. In his career, which is of course not a long one, but he’s logged 37 IP, righties are hitting .400 with a .650 SLG%. To be fair to Davidson, his slider is an equal-opportunity weapon, assuming he can induce a swing on it. Both lefties and righties have fared quite poorly against it, and that’s encouraging, but please read that fastball average/slg% line one more time. The M’s need a series split, and the Angels are doing everything they can to make it happen. Julio would’ve been huge in this game, and getting him back is the most important thing to the M’s chances now. But Ty France is here, and he needs to do some damage.
Against Davidson is Marco Gonzales, who needs to pull out of the tailspin he’s currently mired in. He’s gone 2-2 in his last 4 starts, but has yielded 18 runs in 24 IP for an ERA of 6.75. His FIP is near 6, and he’s yielding an OPS of just barely under 1.000. Again, with Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, and Logan Gilbert, no one needs Marco to be an ace. He’s put up a solid season over all, and he’s a reason why the M’s have playoff odds of *80%* right now. But these are the games where he needs to hold serve against a bad, bad team. He needs to give the M’s a chance to wear out Davidson and get to the Angels enervated bullpen.
The M’s offense has predictably stumbled without Julio. They posted a .313 wOBA, good for a 105 wRC+ per fangraphs in the first half, but that’s fallen to .285 for an 89 wRC+ now. They’re still getting credit for T-Mobile falling back into pitcher’s-haven, but they’re simply not swinging the bats well enough. I know Julio’s out, and they started the 2nd half against Houston. But they need to show they can grind out runs against lesser teams. A cupcake schedule won’t matter if they can’t score.
1: Frazier, 2B
2: France, 1B
3: Haniger, DH
4: Suarez, 3B
5: Winker, LF
6: Raleigh, C
7: Crawford, SS
8: Haggerty, RF
9: Kelenic, CF
SP: Gonzales
Travis Jankowski’s M’s tenure didn’t last long; he was DFA’d when the M’s activated Mitch Haniger. Kevin Padlo is once again on the move, as the Pirates claimed him off of waivers. The more shocking move was the M’s optioning Abraham Toro to Tacoma to add a bit more pitching depth. Understandable in a way with the day-night doubleheader yesterday, but it’s been a rough year (albeit punctuated with some high-profile hits) for Toro.
Haniger’s return comes at just the right time, and gives the M’s a slightly more balanced look against Davidson. Kyle Lewis gets the day off, which is somewhat odd considering his handedness, but he needs to split time with Haniger right now, and is 0 for his last 12 with 9 Ks.
Bryce Miller starts for Arkansas today, and Bryan Woo, another Cal Poly draft pick (like Taylor Dollard) continues his very strong season for Everett. Woo’s thrown 30 IP with 43 Ks and just 6 walks.
Prelander Berroa made his second start last night for AA Arkansas. He got a no-decision in Midland’s 5-1 win. Walks continue to trouble him; he’s now given up 9 in just 5 1/3 IP, against only two hits allowed. Stockton destroyed Modesto 8-1, and Hillsboro demolished Everett 13-2. Thankfully, Tacoma held serve against Sacramento, winning 4-2. Austin Warner pitched 5 excellent innings to start that one off, and Mason McCoy homered.
Game 105, Mariners at Yankees: Trade Deadline Round-Up
Logan Gilbert vs. Jameson Taillon, 4:05pm
Ooookay, it’s been a day. Juan Soto ends up in San Diego in what may be an unprecedented move. The Reds finish off their down-to-the-studs-remodel by moving Tyler Mahle and Brandon Drury, and our Mariners made a series of minor but potentially helpful moves.
Let’s get to the M’s moves first. One of the big needs has been a lefty reliever. Ryan Borucki’s M’s career started off quite well, but he’s been shakier recently, and he remains a guy worth below replacement level since 2018. Would the M’s get Matt Moore, or pry Joe Mantiply away from Arizona? Well, no, but they do get an intriguing buy-low guy in Mercer Island’s own Matthew Boyd, the former Tigers starter. He’s been out the whole season with a shoulder problem, but just threw a 40-pitch simulated game with the Giants, his just-barely-former team. He may not be ready right away, but he could impact the race in September.
Not done with injured Giants (and I seriously want to know the record number of transactions between two teams during one season), the M’s also picked up rehabbing catcher, Curt Casali. Casali is definitely a glove-first guy, with a career slash of .227/.316/.398, but that’s a solid back-up addition to the club now that it’s become clear that whatever magic was in Luis Torrens’ bat is well and truly gone. Torrens was sort of interesting as a developing DH last year, but a bat-first C with no bat is not rosterable for a playoff team.
The return for these two players are some non-40-man minor prospects. Namely, RP Michael Stryffeler, who posted gaudy K rates for AA Arkansas, and was just called up to Tacoma, and C Andy Thomas, a 2021 draft pick playing for Everett. Like Thomas, Casali has a good eye, and could at least help out drawing walks. He’s also not all that bad against left-handed pitching. Unfortunately, that’s Raleigh’s better side, too. In any event, this is not much to give up, but there are clearly red flags with both new M’s, starting of course with the fact that both are currently hurt.
Just now, the M’s added another local kid, picking up Jake Lamb from the Dodgers in exchange for cash money ducats. Lamb was great for the Diamondbacks in 2016-2017, but fell hard as his BABIP cratered. Interestingly, Lamb’s production fell spectacularly against fastballs during those lean years. From 2018 to 2021, Lamb *slugged* .339, .333, .311, and .329 against fastballs, during some of the best fastball-slugging conditions the game has ever seen. His production on them this year isn’t back to his heyday level, but he’s slugging .429 off of them in something of a pitcher’s park. This is a low-risk move that might enable them to play match-ups late in games. He’s been strictly platooned this year, and so expect he would only ever face right-handed pitchers.
None of these moves are big, but I’ll give them credit: they address important areas of need. I’m not sure they address the *biggest* area of need, namely, that this team really needs to score a lot more runs. But the M’s weren’t in on Juan Soto, and so they decided to improve at the margins, but on three different margins at once. The M’s decided not to try and close the gap between themselves and the Yankees/Astros all at once, and as much as Soto would’ve been great, I kind of understand it. They DID take the opportunity to swing some very low risk moves to fix longstanding problems, and thus they chip away at those gaps. It’s been said a lot today, but given Luis Castillo’s club control, the M’s simply have to go all-in for 2023. This year is great, and they’re in a very real playoff fight right now. That’s cool. It’s also possible they won’t even get to play a playoff game in Seattle, and come up short against HOU/NYY in any event. Anything can happen in a short series of course, but this year is a fun lottery ticket. Next year, they *have* to be a great team. That means they simply cannot miss out on some of the free agent bats. Aaron Judge headlines the class, and he’ll get offers from everyone, but the M’s need to identify and *sign* a few bats. Not “be in on” or “had conversations regarding,” but putting-a-hat-on-at-a-press-conference.
Juan Soto was traded after all. The Padres moved a huge package headlined with MLB-level rookies like MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams and also a few of the Padres biggest prospects, namely Robert Hassell III and James Wood. They initially tried to include Eric Hosmer, but Hosmer blocked the deal, so the Pads threw in Luke Voit, while Boston swooped in for Hosmer. Juan Soto is 23 years old, under club control through the 2024 season, and has a career .427 OBP in about 2,500 PAs. He’s been a superstar since he was 19. Given the value the game currently places on elite talent *and* club control, Soto is probably the most valuable trade chip we’ve ever seen. Chris Crawford pondered if this was the biggest trade in baseball history, and of course your mileage may vary depending on how you define “biggest.” I loved the reply from Michael Baumann, who said it was the “biggest non-NBA trade of the 21st century.” I think that’s incontrovertibly true, and also goes to something pretty important. In the NBA’s salary cap era, players have a lot of leverage to demand trades because contract value can’t really differentiate teams – fit, winning chances, coaches, etc. all come to the fore in a way they don’t in baseball. Instead, in baseball, the young, cost-controlled star are what teams covet most. The entire economics of the game elevates them: they can’t leave, you pay a fraction of what they produce and a fraction of what you’d be a free agent. The salary structure essentially makes them absurdly underpaid and thus obscenely valuable. That is to say: the entire structure is set up so deals like this *can’t happen.* A youngster at the end of arb, or like Castillo, a year and a bit? Sure, maybe so. But players this transcendent don’t get traded much, and never so early. It’s possible that analysts saying he’s the reincarnation of Ted Williams are a tad hyperbolic (or not?), but it is not hyperbolic to say that this trade is pretty much sui generis.*
The Yankees aren’t done either, so I figure there are a lot of taxis heading to and from the stadium today. After picking up Frankie Montas, the Yankees just traded one of their remaining starters, Jordan Montgomery, to St. Louis for CF Harrison Bader. This is…perplexing, and it’s possible we’ll need an hour and another move or two to make sense of it. Bader is a good defender whose offense has backed up a bit this season, and he’s also on the IL with an injured foot. Montgomery’s been a solid back-of-the-rotation arm, with an ERA under 4 in 21 starts. He wasn’t scheduled to face the M’s this series. Are they going for Pablo Lopez? Carlos Rodon? We’ll see I guess.
1: Frazier, RF
2: Winker, LF
3: Suarez, 3B
4: Santana, 1B
5: Crawford, SS
6: Lewis, DH
7: Raleigh, C
8: Kelenic, CF
9: Toro, 2B
SP: Gilbert
The M’s weak line-up was exposed in yesterday’s game, as German was wild, but didn’t allow the M’s to take advantage of some base runners. It’s not surprising when you look at some of the slash lines the M’s are putting up. I feel legitimately bad for Jarred Kelenic, thrust back up to the majors in perhaps more pressure than he’s ever had to deal with (that’s debatable, of course) against two great pitching teams. But it is beyond worrying at this point that he doesn’t seem to be turning any corners. His failure to launch both made a potential Juan Soto add more valuable and simultaneously less likely, as a decent version of Kelenic is exactly the kind of young, MLB-level player the Nats were looking for in return. But as I’ve said, his trade value – even a year removed from being a top-10 prospect in baseball – is just not high enough to risk it.
After this series, the M’s host the Angels, who are busy selling off non-Ohtani players. Closer Raisel Iglesias is off to Atlanta, and Brandon Marsh is now a Philly.
* – I don’t think it’s quite the same, but one that would rival it is the one this blog spent years pooh-poohing: the very common idea among fans/writers that the M’s should trade young King Felix before he got expensive. That, of course, never happened. The A-Rod trade is another one mentioned as similar in importance, but it came long after Rodriguez signed that at-the-time-incredible contract with the Rangers, and he was going into his age-28 season. It was an in-his-prime star, and perhaps a bigger star with a longer track record than Soto, but the real comparison would be if the M’s had flipped A-Rod in 1998 or something.