First Cactus League Game Thread
Dave · March 3, 2010 at 10:44 am · Filed Under Mariners
The exhibition season kicks off today with the Mariners hosting the Giants down in Peoria. The game will be broadcast on 710 ESPN, starting at 12:05 in Seattle. Tim Lincecum starts for the Giants, and the M’s counter with Doug Fister.
The first line-up of the spring looks pretty darn close to what I’d expect the M’s to run out on opening day, with one or two small changes.
1. Ichiro, RF
2. Figgins, 2B
3. Bradley, LF
4. Griffey, DH
5. Lopez, 3B
6. Kotchman, 1B
7. Byrnes, CF (this will be Gutierrez on Opening Day)
8. Moore, C (gotta think this will be Rob Johnson catching Felix)
9. Wilson, SS
Comments
46 Responses to “First Cactus League Game Thread”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
It’s fine to let everyone be comfortable, but I’d be thrilled if the organization tried swapping Figgins and Ichiro during spring training. Their projected wOBAs are basically the same, so Ichiro losing ~18 PAs isn’t a big deal. How much gain is there from having Ichiro bat more frequently with a runner on first? 5 runs wouldn’t surprise me, but 10 sounds like too many. It’s a small thing, but this probably won’t be a beastly offense, so stuff like that can matter.
Since the Mariners are starting the season off down in Oakland, Rolland-Smith is in order to start for the home opener. Any chance that they run Felix out there, since it’s the big home opener, or will they just put the next sequential starter in the line on the mound?
Is Bradley expected to spend considerable time at DH allowing Byrnes to enter the lineup?
What’s the opinion out there on Ichiro hitting 3rd (besides not gonna happen)?
WOOHOO.. M’s finally getting under way.. Its gonna be a great year.
On a side note.. congrats Dave on winning your first round game in the brock and salk media tournament. Good luck in the round of 32 against Dave Sims
There is going to be a HUGE number of threads talking about moving Ichiro down in April, when he is typically cold.
I guess I don’t understand, it seems obvious that Ichiro should be hitting 3rd in this lineup. ?
What I really don’t understand is how Steve Kelley made it past the 1st round. blahhhgbrarfffff
Generally, you want your number 3 to be some kind of power threat, even if it’s just driven (rather than speed-based) doubles. The batters ahead of Ichiro can potentially negate some of his speed on the bases if they are slow themselves. Also, hitters with high ground-ball tendencies who put a lot of balls in play risk hitting into double plays more than average. None of those effects are huge, but neither is the potential advantage gained by moving him down.
Note that arbitrarily saying Not Gonna Happen is acceptable if the potential benefits are small. Every time Wak does something off-Book and it fails, he loses some cred with fans, the press, some players and coaches, etc. There are reasonable arguments that it shouldn’t matter, but unfortunately it does. The upside is that when the potential benefits from a contrarian move are large, the Mariners are willing to take action and stand by it regardless of the outcome.
The season starts in Oakland. Who’s their likely #1 starter? Lefty or righty? If it’s a lefty, do you think they’d still start Junior at DH? But yeah, that looks a lot like the opening day lineup, save that I think Lopez and Figgins will return to their normal positions at 2B and 3B.
There’s an interesting analysis to be done on whether the team’s better off with Ichiro or Figgins in the number one spot. I don’t have the tools to do it, but would gladly read someone who did.
It’s hard to imagine it makes much difference at all which of Figgins or Ichiro bats first, considering lineups just don’t matter very much. I’d certainly argue (while knowing it doesn’t make a lot of difference) that it’s silly to bat Ichiro 2nd, because it’s tough to steal with a free swinger at the plate.
Sheets will be Oakland’s opening day starter, I would assume.
Felix would’ve just pitched two nights earlier in Texas, so I assume you’re suggesting that they change the rotation so that the #4 pitcher (whoever that is) starts for the Mariners on Opening Day in Oakland. Which would mean Seattle is sending out its #4 and #5 pitchers against Oakland’s #1 and #2 and also that #5 pitcher against (probably) Texas’ #1 on the Sunday before the home opener. Which I think you’ll agree doesn’t sound optimal. The Home Opener starting pitcher is — maybe — an honor but I doubt anybody thinks it’s more important than winning games, and to do that I think you want to take maximum advantage of the Mariners’ peerless 1-2 by matching them up against the best from the other teams. Which means you’re at the mercy of their scheduling as much as your own.
Besides, If RRS earns the #3 spot out of Spring Training, I think he deserves to bask in the Home Opener. Also, from a strictly business point of view, the Home Opener is likely to be a near-sellout even without one of the two Big Name pitchers. Why not schedule Felix to draw fans to another game?
(I do wonder if Wak will put Lee and RRS 2-3 in the order though, regardless of what the Hyphen actually “earns” — or will he want to break up the two lefties?)
Being that we got Silva for our home opener last year, I don’t think Wak is too concerned with changing the rotation to get the right pitcher for the home opener.
it’s silly to bat Ichiro 2nd, because it’s tough to steal with a free swinger at the plate
Exactly. Ichiro fouls a lot of pitches. Figgins would go absolutely crazy if he is trying to steal a base.
That’s certainly true on average, though Ichiro isn’t exactly average — he’s hit into 71 double-plays in his career. Which sounds like a lot, until you realize he’s had 2312 PAs with men on base (that overlooks some things of course — some of those came with 2 outs, so no double-play would get recorded; some were cases where he bunted and no double-play was possible, etc). I have no idea what the MLB average rate of DP is, but Figgins for example has already had 68 in just 1562 PAs with men on.
In the end, I think they defer to whatever makes Ichiro most comfortable.
…and so far (sample of exactly one) it seems to be working out.
Dave sure sounds great. Or maybe it’s that it’s great to hear Dave’s voice in my office.
Anyone listening to the game on the radio? All I’m getting is Scott Van Pelt complaining about the notion of expanding march madness to like 95 teams.
A lot of Ichiro’s hits are of the infield variety. With a guy on first, some of those turn into fielder’s choice groundouts.
Fister strikes out the side in the second.
Quite a different outcome from the first innning.
I was thinking Ichiro would get fewer infield hits as a #2 or #3 hitter because of the men on base. I haven’t been able to find situational infield hit numbers, but I did find BABIP which might approximate the same thing.
His career BABIP is essentially the same with men on base (.357) or with the bases empty (.358), with a man on 1st (.350) or 1st and 2nd (.358), or with RISP (.362). The only outliers are bases loaded (.430!) and 2nd and 3rd (.230), but those are small samples.
I think Ichiro’s doing just fine as a leadoff hitter and I don’t see any reason to mess with that.
Exactly.
It really bugs me when people try to rationalize why Ichiro can’t/shouldn’t bat third because “he’s a free swinger/he’s doesn’t have power/he hits too many ground balls/etc etc etc”. Ichiro HAS power. He conforms his hitting style to the situation, and if he was to bat third, he would bat like a #3 hitter.
The one and only reason to not have Ichiro bat third is just because Ichiro doesn’t want to bat third. At least for the time being…
Ralph, I’m surprised that Ichiro has identical BABIP with bases empty versus a runner on first.
Not what I would have expected.
Trivia question for a spring training game:
Which is greater, the number of gloves that Jack Hannahan has, or the number of pairs of shoes that Shannon Drayer packs for the road?
When I first saw the line-up I thought damn how are we going to score any runs. Then I think not so bad. We don’t really have any easy outs except for Rob and Jack. Although, I really hope Moore has a breakout year. This line-up has me all over the place. So, many questions, a lot of upside but it can’t be any worse then last year.
Enough with the questions. Lets play Baseball already!! Oh yeah still a month to wait…
Does anyone have information about whether it’s possible to get any online audio/video of games inside Seattle, even if I’m willing to pay?
Seems like all the options are all blacked out by MLB.
Thanks.
Ichiro is not being moved from the 1 spot this year or anytime soon. I thought that discussion was retired.
Whoo hoooo, play ball!!
Not sure about online, but sneak a cheap AM radio and ear buds to your desk.
Dave, do you see Gutierrez batting 7th normally?
Zduriencik sitting in for an inning on the radio. I love listening to him, even though he gives absolutely nothing away.
Ichiro has a lot of freakish splits. Some of those are SSS, but several of them (like his platoon split) are legit, and legitimately odd. His BA being the same with men on vs bases empty is unusual too.
If this were true, you’d expect him to have a higher SLG (and more HR’s) with men on base. His splits don’t show that. With men on base, his career SLG is 426 and his ISO is 090. With no one on base, SLG is 438 and ISO is 107. Leading off an inning, SLG is 451 and ISO is 120.
Looks like Ichiro hits more like a #3 hitter when he’s leading off an inning or the bases are empty.
These are not small samples; we’re talking thousands of at bats.
I’ll be honest, my suggested lineup is different than this possible Opening Day lineup, but if I shared it I would likely get dinged for rosterbation.
So I’ll have to pass on this thread.
Is it because it includes Adrian Gonzalez?
Better rosterbation than Cooperstownstabation which seems to be what they’re broadcasting instead of baseball this afternoon.
Just heard that Gaby Hernandez was claimed by the Royals. He was DFA’d by the Red Sox on March 1.
Of course it was the Royals. Who else would it be?
Nelson scores from first on a double!
Somebody check the seismograph on that one.
TUI!!!!
sure…go for the easy target…where’s the fun in that? {grin}
JLB: You can get Gameday Audio from MLB.com without any blackout restrictions anywhere.
MLB.TV, on the other hand, has the blackout restrictions and you’d need to do some kind of internet proxy shenanigans to watch M’s games on it anywhere near Seattle. Although I’m not sure if archived games have the restriction…I don’t think so.
Langerhans goes 0-0, 3 BB, 1 R.
Unsure if he even brought a bat to the plate.
Not that it mattered, I guess.
So is Lopez just the third baseman now or what?
So is Lopez just the third baseman now or what?
It’s an experiment, and it’s still early. It’s going to be a while before they make up their minds:
Did anyone else notice that Dave referred to Fister as Lincecum twice in the first inning?
Well, Rick, they’re very similar pitchers, so it’s understandable.
[Sims]
No way Guti is batting as deep as seven.
That’s Lopez spot unless he can prove he can tell the difference between a strike and ball.
Rob is the second string catcher. Wak has said as much in my interpetation.
He may open the season catching the first game, but simply because Felix is on the mound. Rob is Felix’s catcher.
Bard will get most the time unless Moore simply shows it would be stupid to send him down, regardless of available options, due to his offense.
Until Ichiro is unable to get his 200 hits a year, he will bat first.
Gosh, and they went into extra innings. I don’t think I mind not hearing a Mariner pitcher walk the world in the 10th, however.