Game 35, Mariners at Rangers
Justus Sheffield vs. Dane Dunning, 11:35am
Yesterday’s game was, in one sense, a painful loss – a series of blown leads, the bullpen surrendering critical runs, a potential tying run thrown out at the plate – but, perhaps, an encouraging one. The stirrings of life from the bottom of the order are growing, and now even Evan White looks a bit better. Dylan Moore isn’t an automatic out. JP Crawford is officially “hot,” and has been rewarded with his old spot in the line-up: leading off. I’ve been critical of this line-up’s construction, and have my doubts about the long-term viability of several of its members’ futures. But I have to say: this team has been really fun to watch. They keep delivering more entertaining games than I think they “should” or whatever, and at some point, I just have to admit that it’s a part of their make-up. Does it herald better things than projections would indicate? I dunno, but who cares? In a season in which no one – not even the front office – really expects to or is attempting to contend, the *best* outcome here is a team that’s fun to watch compete and develop. Perhaps it helps when they’re away from T-Mobile, where offense goes to die, but they’re doing just that.
Today’s opposing starter, Dane Dunning, was the primary return in the Lance Lynn deal. The former White Sox prospect doesn’t have eye-popping stuff; he sits at 90mph with his sinker, and mixes in a slider, a cutter, and a change. He has a rarely-used curve, but he’s primarily a four-pitch righty. Texas appears to have made some minor tweaks, because his slider’s movement is a bit different this year – more vertical, more drop, as well as more glove-side break. The differences aren’t major, and may be influenced by a tiny drop in velo (he’s throwing a bit slower with all of his pitches this year, which is probably just due to the fact that it’s April/May).
They also told him to ditch his four-seam, a pitch he threw around 10% of the time last year. As a guy who throws a sinker/slider combo most of the time, you’d figure Dunning would have poor splits – especially without top-shelf velocity to overpower lefties. But it’s not so: Dunning’s been excellent against lefties this year, and while his career splits show lefties hitting a tiny bit better than righties, they’ve posted a sub-.300 wOBA. The key is Dunning’s effective change-up, a pitch at around 84 that mimics the movement of his sinker. Again, if I was designing a pitch on a computer, I’m not sure I’d *want* a cambio with similar vertical movement to your fastball, and I’d probably increase the velocity gap between the two. But Dunning’s change works just fine for him, and it’s helped him post similar K rates to lefties and righties alike. Yes, a lot of this is similar to what I mentioned when the M’s faced John Means, and that’s…worrying, but in this case I don’t think they’re all that similar to batters, just given how different both pitchers fastballs are. Still, the M’s haven’t been great against change-ups of any kind.
Similar to Kohei Arihara, Dunning has had a great stretch of performance in April, and then a bit of a skid in his last three games. Nothing brutal like Arihara’s, but noticeable after a brilliant start to the year.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, DH
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Moore, 2B
6: Marmolejos, RF
7: Murphy, C
8: White, 1B
9: Trammell, LF
SP: Sheffield
Tacoma beat up on El Paso, 9-4. New Rainier/new-to-the-M’s-org Hector Santiago started and went 4 scoreless with 7 Ks. He’s a great depth pick-up, and could have some value to the big club later on. As a pitcher who had some success, but was undone by HR trouble, he might be playable again in a league/park without a supercharged baseball. Another recent pick up, 29 year old Jaime Schultz, got the win in relief. Dillon Thomas homered for the R’s.
The Arkansas Travelers lost a pitchers duel yesterday to NW Arkansas. Devin Sweet was effectively wild, mixing in 6 walks with 7 Ks in 3 2/3 scoreless. The game was scoreless into the bottom of the 7th, when the Travs scored 3. But the Naturals scored 3 in the top of the 8th, and then 3 more in the 9th to win it. Adam Hall, a Mets draft pick who was traded to Milwaukee, and then traded to Seattle for Omar Narvaez, makes his season debut today.
Everett blanked Hillsboro 3-0, behind a dominant start from Brandon Williamson. The 2019 2nd round lefty struck out 9 in 4 innings, giving up just 2 hits, no walks, and no runs. The Frogs’ pen racked up another 9 K’s in the remaining 5 innings. Juan Then should start today; yes, I said that yesterday, too.
Modesto beat Stockton 5-2, as Sam Carlson pitched well – he struck out 7, giving up an unearned run on 2 hits and a walk. Noelvi Marte has 2 hits at the top of the line-up. Damon Casetta-Stubbs starts for the Nuts today.
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6 Responses to “Game 35, Mariners at Rangers”
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Well, it looks like garbage time has begun…..
It would be great if Sheffield could get through the order twice.
Lot of conditionals with this team.
At this point, the flashing warning signs to me are Pythag W/L + overperforming in the clutch (both of which aren’t long term sustainable) + all the pitching injuries stripping out depth in the staff. It is hard for me to see this team do much of anything except fade out of the race (though happy to be wrong here). To quote Dennis Green, “they are who they thought they were”.
I have to say seeing Flexen contribute is positive and if Kikuchi can have a year that makes Dipoto pull the trigger on the team option. I’m going to have to see a LOT more from White to have a lot of faith that he’s fixed.
At this point, call up Kelenic and let’s see what we got. Anything that gives ABs to him and takes them away from Haggerty/Marmelejos would be fine by me.
I don’t think there’s any chance Kikuchi’s option gets exercised. He might even be a trade candidate, as the player option isn’t too scary.
You can’t blow out a bunch of veteran above average players in trade in a fire sale or letting them walk in FA (Haniger, Seager, Kikuchi) and expect to contend in 2022, especially since this is not like an organization awash in amazing position players in the infield or starting pitchers. Right now the rotation looks like it’s going to be doing a lot of bullpen days. I refer you back to Marc’s post at the beginning of the season. This team needs to quit screwing around way under .500. Trading 2021 and 2022 wins for 2023-2024 wins is just not where Dipoto needs to be.
I mean, I GUESS you could say the goal is a contention window opening in 2023-2024, but at that point it’s like “come ON, really?”…
This isn’t about what I think they should do, it’s about what I suspect they will do (or try). In fact, I advocated for signing him. But it’s doubtful they’ll commit another 4 years and 66m(?).
Anyway, it probably is more likely he sticks around beyond the deadline, exercises his player option for 13m, then gets replaced by one of the SP prospects in 2023.