Game 117, Blue Jays at Mariners
Chris Flexen vs. Robbie Ray, 7:10pm
Marco Gonzales complete game two-hitter over the Rangers underscored first that Marco’s much improved from the version we saw early in the year. Second, it underscored that Texas can’t hit. Marco had to pitch well, of course; even a bad team can have a decent night. But fundamentally, they’re simply not consistent or deep enough, and thus the Rangers are absolutely abysmal as a team. The challenge for the M’s now is to keep this roll going of limiting hits and runs…against one of the best line-ups in the game.
The Blue Jays have an MVP candidate (non-Ohtani division) in Vlad Guerrero, Jr., one of the best young shortstops in Bo Bichette, and now have George Springer healthy and raking. The club has the second-highest average in MLB, and they’re tied (with San Francisco?) for the highest ISO. They put the ball in play AND they hit for power. It’s just not a line-up with a lot of holes; Randall Grichuk bats 8th tonight and has a below-average wRC+, but has 19 HRs and is a dangerous hitter. This is a real test for Chris Flexen.
The weirdest thing about the Jays is that they had one serious line-up weakness in Rowdy Tellez, who hit his way to a DFA, moved to the Brewers and now no one can get him out. People just *connected* to this team, even if they’re not actually on it, can’t stop hitting.
Robbie Ray has been a tantalizing, frustrating talent for years. He balanced very high strikeouts with very high walk rates, and medium-high HR rates. If some fly balls stayed in the yard, or if his BABIP was low, he’d look like an ace in the making. If his BABIP rose, or if, like last year, his home runs-per-fly-ball rate increased, it got ugly. The worst thing was the trend. He posted his best year in 2017, and things slowly got worse until 2020, when they got much worse very quickly. This year, buoyed by the best walk rate of his career (by a mile), he’s putting together a brilliant campaign. His HR rate is still very high – and that seems like the best avenue for the M’s tonight – but the BABIP gods have smiled on him, and he remains highly skilled at missing bats.
With Arizona, he was generally a three-pitch guy, with a mid-90s fastball paired with a slider and curve. In years past, the curve was his best secondary, but these days, he’s switched over to the slider. In fact, the four-seam and slider are the only pitches he throws more than 5-8% of the time (he has a rare change and a sinker). When he gets hit, it tends to be struck pretty well. Batters are hitting under .200 off of his slider, with just 28 hits total. But 12 of them have gone for extra bases, including 7 HRs. It’s a real weapon, and a swing-and-miss pitch, but I suppose some of them are cement mixers and hang in the center of the zone.
This is a huge series. The Jays are 2 games ahead of Seattle in the Wild Card, and 1/2 game back of the Yankees. The M’s playoff odds can get a bit better this week, or they can essentially be dashed. Just win, Mariners. I’m hoping the pandemic and border issues can keep the Jays “home field advantage” a bit more muted this year, but I’m kind of bracing for a bunch of celebratory Canucks.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: France, 1B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Toro, 2B
6: Torrens, DH
7: Kelenic, CF
8: Murphy, C
9: Moore, LF
SP: Flexen
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The only good things to come out of Canada in the last 40 years are NoMeansNo and Dayglo Abortions.
The vendors at the park should offer poutine, but with rank cheese curds.
And in other news, Chris Sale strikes out 8 in his first AAA rehab start against the Orioles.
You know our GM is envious of the O’s aggressive draft positioning.
On the one hand, winning two out of three against a team that is almost tied with the Mariners in the standings is a good accomplishment.
But the first game typified why the Ms have surprised so many people by winning so many games: forget about unsustainable clutch hitting, the Ms were gifted by yet another bizarre meltdown by an opponent’s bullpen.
Plus, are the Ms even in the playoff race at this point? Mathematically yes, realistically no.
And for next season, as commenters have noted, the Ms have a lot of holes to fill if they want to be a true contender rather than a team that lucked into a number of one-run wins, extra-inning wins, and walk-off wins.
I remain skeptical of the front office’s ability, or maybe even will, to achieve those final steps of the rebuild and turn the Ms into a contender.
But I do have to tip my cap to the players and their hustle and the exciting, nerve-wracking wins they’ve given us this season. A good proportion of the lineup is only marginally major league level, but they’ve outperformed their talent level and won more games than they’ve lost, a good accomplishment for a team that is still in its rebuilding phase.