Game 132, Astros at Mariners – Et Tu, Salvi?
Chris Flexen vs. Luis Garcia, 7:10pm
I never really expected a playoff chase this year, so I didn’t spend a lot of time wondering how one might end. You could’ve given me a *lot* of guesses before I’d have surmised that it might end at the hands of the Kansas City Royals, or, specifically, by Salvador Perez. Perez spent 2014-2019 as a reliably below-average batter. That includes the fact that Perez missed 2019 in its entirety because of Tommy John surgery. Perez had to come back from rehab as a catcher in his 30s *and* learn how to add value at the plate, something that had eluded him for hundreds and hundreds of games. And…he…just, you know, did it. A guy worth -50.5 batting runs from 2014-2019 is now at +27.9 in roughly one season’s worth of play since. It is baffling, the kind of thing that baseball loves to throw at people who like to think track records or long-term reliable indicators of potential mean things.
Of course, not even the fact that he’s good now would’ve prepared us for what he’s done. He’s now homered in 5 straight and will cruise to over 40 HRs this year. This, though, is perhaps somewhat easier for we M’s fans to understand. The M’s have thrived all year due to clutch performance and odd, put-the-team-on-his-back hot streaks. Who can forget the Two Weeks of Torrens in July? Or the 19 game stretch in June where JP Crawford hit .382/.430/.618? Think that wasn’t odd and frustrating for M’s opponents? You live by the hot hand, you apparently die by it, too.
Now, having seen their still-small playoff odds halved by the vile Monarchists who play in a mis-named city, the M’s have to welcome the Houston Astros to town. Yes, the M’s have played Houston very tough this year, and yes, their single greatest game of 2021 occurred at T-Mobile, against this team, and against tonight’s starting pitcher. Nothing’s written in stone, as we’ve just discussed. The Red Sox woes have kept the M’s playoff hopes alive, which is better than the alternative. But with the offense struggling again, the M’s missed a golden opportunity to finally put real distance between themselves and Toronto. The M’s keep having to look in the rear view AND scoreboard watch the teams in front. Toronto is good, and it would be nice if they’d just go away.
Luis Garcia has been a revelation for the Astros this year. After a brilliant first month, he’s been remarkably consistent, with an ERA in the 3’s in every subsequent month. I mentioned when the M’s faced him early on that he had great pitch movement for a guy with a sub-6′ release point, and while the great movement stuff is still true, he’s raised his release point throughout the year, and is above 6′ now. Not by a mile, but it’s interesting that his K% has really jumped after this change. Garcia had an 18% K rate in his 2020 cup of coffee, but is now closing in on 30% this year. How? Along with the release point change, he’s changed his pitch mix. He’s now throwing a lot more cutters, and that slider-y pitch has been his best, with the highest whiff rate of any offering.
The one saving grace here is that Garcia still isn’t throwing many cutters to lefties. I’d wondered if he started throwing more of them because he’s had some trouble with left-handed batters this year. His slider’s a great out-pitch, but he only throws that to righties, so maybe a harder cutter might be better against southpaws? Nope, he’s now throwing multiple soul-stealing pitches to righties, while relying on his change, curve and fastball to get lefties out. It’s not that he’s not missing any left-handed bats, but rather that the ball goes pretty far when they make contact. That’s something the M’s will need to do today – punish Garcia’s mistakes, and have their lefties do some damage.
Kyle Lewis was supposed to go out on a rehab assignment today, but felt some soreness after his last workout, and thus that idea’s been shelved for now. It’s another of the ominous signs surrounding the M’s next core: Lewis’ health is now a full-fledged concern years after his horrific knee injury, Evan White has been ground to a fine powder by major league pitching *and* his hip gave out, and as bad as White’s debut went, Jarred Kelenic’s might be worse.
In better news, the M’s brought back opening day Mariner Jose Marmolejos, who’s spent the last several months laying waste to AAA-West pitching. With an OPS well over 1.100, it was beyond time to see what he can do for this line-up, though he’s now lost his primary position, first base. Thus, he’ll go into the rotation for LF; he starts tonight. Jimmy Yacabonis was DFA’d to make room on the 40-man. Props if you remembered that Yacabonis was even on it. He was added to the roster only the other day when Keynan Middleton was surprisingly outrighted. Yacabonis pitched one game in an M’s uniform, that fateful smoke-filled game where he loaded the bases in the first inning and was saved by Kyle Lewis’ great grand-slam-robbing catch.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, 1B
5: Toro, 2B
6: Marmolejos, LF
7: Torrens, DH
8: Kelenic, CF
9: Murphy, C
SP: Flexen
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That stolen HR catch by Lewis made me think Seattle finally has a center fielder.
What a difference a few months can make.