M’s Acquire IF Adam Frazier
Ok, it’s not the huge free agent acquisition that clarifies the M’s 2022 season, and it’s not a blockbuster trade. But the M’s have made a move that solidifies their 2022 infield, and they didn’t have to part with one of their highly-regarded starting pitching prospects. The M’s went back to one of their usual trading partners, picking up Adam Frazier in exchange for hard-throwing lefty RP prospect Ray Kerr and OF pop-up guy, Corey Rosier.
It’s a good deal, as Frazier was an All-Star last year and helps an offense that could use a lot more contact and batting average than they got last year. Frazier’s played some OF, and had a couple of appearances at 3B for Pittsburgh, but played 2B nearly exclusively last season. He’s a perfectly serviceable 2B as well, so the M’s don’t have to punt on defense. What they probably DO have to punt on is power. Frazier hit 10 HRs a few times for Pittsburgh, and had a decent-ish ISO for the Bucs in half a season in 2018, but gap power is kind of a stretch. In some ways, Frazier’s similar at the plate to his new double play partner, JP Crawford. Both guys had 46 XBH last year, nearly all doubles, and they posted ISOs in the barely-over-100 range. That said, both guys posted above-average wOBA/wRC+ rates, in Crawford’s case thanks to a decent walk rate, and in Frazier’s case by making tons of contact.
Frazier’s 10%+ K rate is one of the lowest in the game, and allows him to overcome one of the lowest average exit velocities in the game – another thing he has in common with Crawford. That sounds ominous, but given what we’ve seen from Ty France and Crawford, it may not be a problem. The key is that Frazier’s an all-field hitter who hits very few fly balls. A low exit velo fly ball hitter is not going to work. A guy who hits line drives in front of OFs can. Frazier posted a LD% of nearly 30% last year, boosting his BABIP and pulling his average over .300. That may be a bit much to expect going forward, but it’s a profile that can play in Seattle right now, and if we learned anything from 2021, it’s that not all profiles can do so.
In a way, he’s the antithesis of Kyle Seager at the plate. At the end of his M’s tenure, Seager had become a dead-pull hitter who hit for plenty of power, which helped overcome strikeouts. I still like Seager, and I think he can help a big league club, but he was perhaps the worst possible fit in T-Mobile, hence his 65 wRC+ at home. Seager’s style and T-Mobile’s BABIP-sapping park effects led Seager to a .165/.245/.329 line at home. If you care for Seager at all, you must do what the M’s have done and set him free. To be clear, I don’t think Frazier is Seager’s replacement, but it’s an acknowledgement that they needed a vastly different style of hitter in their line-up.
Still, T-Mobile didn’t just sap pull hitters’ BABIP – JP Crawford was a below average hitter at home, too. If there’s a concern here, it’s that a lower LD% and maybe some OFs playing shallower in Seattle’s physically small OF can turn him into David-Fletcher-in-2021 and not David-Fletcher-in-2020. Frazier had just a 1% barrel rate last season, less than half of Crawford’s concerning rate. That means there’s more volatility in the profile than you’d otherwise want from a super-high contact/low-strikeout hitter. But there’s volatility everywhere, and a player who can put the ball in play is critical for this M’s line-up. It’s a risk the M’s had to take.
The return for the Padres is former undrafted free agent RP Ray Kerr, who’d just been added to the 40-man roster. Kerr throws extremely hard, and posted an enticing combination of K rate and ground balls this year for Tacoma and Arkansas, but he only threw just shy of 40 innings in his first year as a full-time reliever. He’s already 27, but has a shot at the Pads bullpen given his skillset: a fastball from the left side approaching 100 MPH along with a good splitter. The Pads also get 2021 draft pick Corey Rosier, their 12th rounder out of UNC-Greensboro. Rosier got in 31 games for Modesto after the draft and hit a cool .390/.461/.585, buoyed by a .434 BABIP. It’s a great line, but it’s 31 games in low-A by a late round college hitter. This could be a disastrous trade if this lottery ticket works out for San Diego, but this kind of trade, with the M’s in the position they’re in, is one the M’s make 10 times out of 10.
If there’s a concern apart from Frazier’s volatility, it’s that the move may seem to close off options for the M’s to make a much bigger splash at 2B, say by picking up Marcus Semien. But Frazier’s positional flexibility and the low cost of the deal means he’d have value as a super-utility guy even if the M’s did convince a Semien or a Baez to come to Seattle. The M’s aren’t at a point where they need to closely watch playing time or worry about having too many IFs (or anything else). They simply need to get better, and this move certainly does that. It’s not enough, by any stretch, but it’s a nice first step.
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Nice write-up, Marc.
My thoughts about Frazier at T-Mobile is that he can potentially thrive there, dropping in singles to right field. It’s a shame there isn’t really a gap to hit, but it is what it is.
Frazier probably lowers the likeliness of landing Semien, but suddenly someone like Trevor Story makes a lot of sense for third. If Marte eventually needs to move off of SS, perhaps Story could move to 2B at that point. Maybe Crawford’s moves into a supporting role. Having an alternative for SS who offers elite production would be a good thing.
Seattle still needs power, still needs pitching, and I would argue a better center field option. But this was a good appetizer. Let’s see what the main dish(es) look like. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see something happen over the next 24 hours.
Well, now we have an idea why Frazier may have became a target! Seven years for Semien wasn’t going to happen. Story being a little younger *might* be a difference-maker, but old friend Chris Taylor should be of even more interest at this point.
If this off-season is Adam Frazier, Chris Taylor, Tyler Anderson and another rotation filler starter… well, it’s not nothing, but I am not sure how it moves the needle to “contention” from “.500ish roster that got lucky last year”.
Fortunately, the offseason doesn’t end Wednesday. Whatever happens before then, I’ll reserve judgment until the opening day rosters are set.
Obviously offseason moves aren’t a finished product yet. But this was a bottom five offense that lost a decent offensive player in Seager. “Hey, we’ll tweak around the edges by replacing Kyle with a second tier FA and upgrading 2B by taking salary in a trade for a one year rental, and we’ll be set” would be an odd place to land when you have the best financial flexibility in the division and two of your in division rivals are getting out the checkbooks.
Do you think Dipoto would settle for a second-tier third baseman via free agency? The only one who seemed like a viable option to start regularly was Escobar and he’s off the board.
I would think that a trade is more likely if one of Taylor/Story/Bryant isn’t signed.
So watch, Torrens is the opening day third baseman. Kidding.
I don’t think Taylor is a real upgrade on Seager. Story and Bryant would be. But if Dipoto decides to let Beane do some light farm system pillaging for Chapman while keeping the Crown Jewels… er, well combined with Robbie Ray and another SP I can squint and see this being feasible as an alternative to a Story/Bryant/Taylor signing… I guess? Hopefully the M’s would extend him.
Adam is a good pick up, but is a free agent the next season, so this doesn’t seem like a long term solution to second base.
Let’s postulate that no more players will be acquired by the M’s this year. (Because Bryant and Story hate the emerald city, and the emerald green of piles of money.)
They will have a lot of money to spend next year. And prospects to trade.
Or Toro proves a worthy starter, so Noelvi Marte is on the verge of erupting onto the majors as either a 3b or a 2b (more likely a 3b with Toro swinging over to 2b)
Or the GOP wins the midterms, and all democracy-loving ballplayers escape to Canada or Japan.
Uncertainty is just where we’re likely to remain for awhile.
I don’t think Taylor is a real upgrade on Seager. Story and Bryant would be. But if Dipoto decides to let Beane do some light farm system pillaging for Chapman while keeping the Crown Jewels… er, well combined with Robbie Ray and another SP I can squint and see this being feasible as an alternative to a Story/Bryant/Taylor signing… I guess? Hopefully the M’s would extend him.
Had Taylor been signed, he wouldn’t have played third base exclusively. His positional flexibility was a huge part of the attraction. But that’s all moot now.
Chapman absolutely should be on the radar and probably is. But they really have to do more than that with the fielding. I can think of a Japanese player athletic enough to handle center.
I would argue there’s a need for a couple of starting pitchers as well. They could stash one in the bullpen for long-relief and spot-starts. Dunn and Sheffield (well, and Brash) have options, so they could thicken the depth from AAA.
Adam is a good pick up, but is a free agent the next season, so this doesn’t seem like a long term solution to second base.
I’d worry about 2022 before 2023 and beyond.
Let’s postulate that no more players will be acquired by the M’s this year. (Because Bryant and Story hate the emerald city, and the emerald green of piles of money.)
They will have a lot of money to spend next year. And prospects to trade.
Or Toro proves a worthy starter, so Noelvi Marte is on the verge of erupting onto the majors as either a 3b or a 2b (more likely a 3b with Toro swinging over to 2b)
They absolutely cannot and will not stop now. Jerry has been very public about bringing in an impact-bat and that hasn’t happened.
He took heat last season having suggested they would add, only to have Mather hand him a restrictive budget.
He wouldn’t have Mather to blame this time.