There We Go: M’s Acquire Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez from Reds in Exchange for Dunn, Fraley, Williamson
Wow. Ok. Ask and you shall receive. Mere moments after demanding that the M’s take action now, and to target the two dismantling teams (Oakland and Cincinnati), Jerry Dipoto does *exactly that.* Today, the M’s traded SP Justin Dunn, LF Jake Fraley, and SP prospect Brandon Williamson to the Reds for 1B/LF Jesse Winker and 3B/DH Eugenio Suarez. We don’t know the future, Suarez in particular has some red flags, but it is nearly impossible to hate this trade. This is fantastic news.
Giving up Brandon Williamson is the part that could sting, but in exchange for a late-20s, power-hitting corner defender and a guy a few years off of hitting 49 HRs…well, we’ll run the risk of future stinging and sleep like babies. The Reds, as mentioned, want to tank. They don’t have much tied up beyond 2022, except for Suarez and Mike Moustakas. The M’s being willing to take on Suarez’s deal, which runs through 2024 and includes a 2025 team option, is probably what enabled this deal to reach fruition. Winker, 28, is coming off his first year of arbitration, and a year in which he put up a .950 OPS, and will thus see a good size increase over his $3.5M payday in 2021. Still, it’s Suarez’s $33M guaranteed through 2024 with at least another $2M in a buyout clause that made Cincinnati see what they could get for the 30 year old.
Suarez not only represents a good chunk of Cincy’s medium-term commitments, he’s coming off a disastrous year. He hit .198/.286/.428, and he did so in an offense-boosting home park. No one needs him to come back to his 2019 form (.271/.358/.572), but any kind of increase on his 2020-2021 doldrums would make him a valuable contributor. This is Kyle Seager’s spiritual successor: these past years, Suarez has still knocked some home runs, but his value has suffered as shifting and his hitting style have cratered his BABIP. Suarez a .214 BABIP in the shortened 2020 season, before improving modestly to a still-barely-possible .224 last year – a near dead ringer for Kyle’s .226 mark last year. I know all too well that Seattle’s not where you want to go if you want your BABIP to bounce back, but *any* improvement in his batted ball luck/results would be huge. If the M’s could cut his K rate slightly, that’d help, too. And even though we’re talking about his awful, BABIP-smothered season, the guy put up a better-than-.700 OPS, which on the M’s, is cause for celebration.
But that’s not even the good part. Just for taking on this sunk cost (who might still be a starting position upgrade), the M’s get Jesse Winker, the in-his-prime lefty with a lifetime wRC+ of 132, and coming off of 110 games of hitting at a 148 clip. He’s instantly the M’s best hitter (sorry Mitch, sorry Ty), and he fills a gaping chasm at LF. I suppose it made sense that this arb-eligible slugger would be available, just as Matt Olson was, but I still can’t quite wrap my mind around it. Winker will make a fraction of his value the next few years, and the Reds said “nahh, I don’t need that.”
Someone, somewhere may figure out Justin Dunn, but between injuries, command issues, and inconsistency, you can’t blame the M’s for flipping him now. Jake Fraley had a great OBP, but I’m still not sure it’ll carry over, particularly if he’s not able to drive the ball consistently. Still, he gives the Reds a non-black hole to stick in LF to replace Jesse Winker, and I can’t stop laughing as I type.
The M’s have made some head-scratching trades, and they’ve made some very good under-the-radar moves. I think the biggest blockbuster in Dipoto’s tenure is still the Tai Walker and Marte for Mitch and Jean Segura deal, which ultimately worked well for both parties. This one may, too, but this is as close as we’ve seen to an outright steal in many years. That doesn’t mean it works the way we want it to, but this is about getting the clear – CLEAR – better end of deal talent wise in exchange for absorbing salary money. For all the M’s have saved in their step-back, they needed to show they could get better and grow the payroll as they did so. This accomplishes that. Nice job.
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5 Responses to “There We Go: M’s Acquire Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez from Reds in Exchange for Dunn, Fraley, Williamson”
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Seems like a good enough trade. I like taking in the dead-money contract to reduce the prospect bite, and on a bounce-back candidate. If Dipoto can’t find free agents to take the money, then this is one way to use it.
The offense is unquestionably better. But it just doesn’t feel like enough. Suarez at best a wash with Seager, Frasier a moderate improvement, Winkler brings the bat but no defense. Who plays CF? I dunno. Sure feels like too little. We need major contributions from Kelenic, Raleigh, J-Rod and no regression in order to make this work in 2022.
ZiPS is high on a Suárez rebound and the shift limitations may benefit him as he was victimized similarly as Seager, so this will be a steal if he rebounds.
I haven’t been keen on adding a corner outfielder. Center is the bigger concern, but Winker checks all the boxes offensively and he can’t be any worse than what we got out of LF or CF last year collectively.
This probably wasn’t plan A (or B), but it’s definitely interesting and the team is undoubtedly better.
I’m just glad baseball is back!
This is a good trade, with much lower prospect cost than you’d expect. The team is 8-10 wins improved over last year’s true talent level, especially by eliminating black holes on the offensive side. Absolutely, it will take young players moving forward to become a contender. That’s always been the deal.
I like the move, but the Hot Stove payoff is disappointing if this was the last move before the Opening Day roster. The rotation seems thin, the OF defense is a corner OF (maybe two in Julio and Kelenic), a guy who mostly should be a DH (Mitch), and a guy who should definitely be a DH (Winker), and there’s a lot being banked on Raleigh, Kelenic and kids in the rotation (it looks like we’re seriously considering the #5 being guys who haven’t done a 150 IP season yet in pro ball). The Fangraphs assessment of ~.500 doesn’t seem far off (yes, I get it, you can special plead Kelenic is really better than his projections, or whoever).
The Reds and the Twins are still spending more on their roster than the Mariners are. The ~$20 million boost is appreciated but they could have done that some time ago (and who knows, maybe not had as many holes to plug). We could have had Correa and still been ~average for MLB payroll.