Cactus League Game 5, Cubs at Mariners
Robbie Ray vs. Kyle Hendricks, 1:10pm
Our first look at Robbie Ray in an M’s uniform in a sort-of-real baseball game. This should be fun. Yesterday’s game took place in Talking Stick, which is one of the parks with statcast data, allowing us to learn a bit more about the M’s two young phenoms, George Kirby and Matt Brash.
Kirby gave up some runs, but generally looked solid, with a high-90s fastball and a surprisingly good change-up. That made up for a curve that didn’t quite look ready and a slider that he had trouble commanding. It wasn’t a perfect start, but no one’s expecting that in his first outing of the spring. Ever since news of his velo spike broke in 2020, I’d been hoping it was real and not a hype-job based off of a nice workout or a one-inning relief appearance in a sim game. Well, it looks real. The super-elite command and control may have been a bit oversold, but the stuff is a heck of a lot better than it was described on his draft day.
Brash was even better, throwing a sinker with devilish movement and his slider (which MLB calls a knuckle curve, ala Lance McCullers Jr., I guess) was pretty much as-advertised. The spin on his slider was extremely high, powering its late break. I mentioned on twitter that the two pitches move like those of Reds reliever Tejay Antone. And that’s really why he’s special: he can be a part of a big league bullpen right now, but the promise of set-up man stuff from a starting pitcher? That’s good. Of course, like a lot of set-up men, he may struggle against lefties. Righties are in deep, deep trouble, but lefties held their own against Brash in AA.
All of this helps fuel the optimism about the M’s potential run prevention that I outlined in yesterday’s post. We didn’t even really talk about the bullpen, where the M’s just need to regress less severely than the projections to boast a very solid group. They also have the benefit of knowing more about who’s likely to be good rather than needing to throw things at the wall like they did last year. It took a while for them to turn to Paul Sewald, and away from Rafael Montero and Will Vest. Giving more innings to Brash can only help this club, and he might become a test of the FO. I’m sure they’d love to keep him down 19 days and bag another year of club control, but can you do that in a year you 1) want to compete and 2) are going to need every run/run saved to get a playoff spot?
As feasible as it might be for the M’s to save an additional 50 runs if things go right, I’d sort of missed just how much the offense is projected to improve. Fangraphs’ projection has the line-up down for 25 WAR. Last year, they put up just 11.5. They’re projected to more than double, and while you could argue that not one projection looks overly rosy, it’s stunning how much might need to go right for the club to contend. Pickups like Winker and Frazier have filled some line-up black holes, but it’s also harder to see where another 50 runs might be hiding in the projections. As always, the M’s best chance is that their prospects go nuts, but even there: every projection system already loves Julio Rodriguez, and he’s already projected to be a major contributor in 2022. The best chance of course is a big year from Jarred Kelenic, or out-of-nowhere contributions from the two guys 2021 destroyed: Evan White and Taylor Trammell, both of whom will need to break back into the line-up after starting in the minors.
1: Toro, 2B
2: Juliooooooo, CF
3: Suarez, 3B
4: Raleigh, C
5: Murphy, DH
6: Trammell, LF
7: White, 1B
8: Souza, RF
9: Moore, SS
SP: Ray, woooooo!
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4 Responses to “Cactus League Game 5, Cubs at Mariners”
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Maybe I’m naïve, but it’s not the offense that has concerned me, it’s the relief pitching and defense.
Marc – Just wanted to give you some kudos on these daily writeups, which contain a lot of information and great insight. I may not always comment, but I do read and appreciate each one. Keep up the good work….looking forward to a fun 2022!
Looking for 50 runs? My best guess of how that would be realistic is a combination of Kelenic finding the magic that made him a #4 prospect and Suarez finding that another year post shoulder injury (and post COVID) is sufficient for the hit tool to return.
I like that even the subs (Torrens, Toro, Lewis when he returns) are likely to contribute positive WAR with the bats this year.
The outfield defense is the biggest blaring alarm for me. My recollection is that OF defense contributes to run prevention out- and under-performance more often than almost any other factor…
^I agree and I’ve had the same thoughts about Suárez finally being past his shoulder injury. He started hitting the ball hard again in mid-July, then exploded in September. Small sample, but promising nonetheless.
The outfield defense is the most concerning issue, especially CF, though LF is arguably even worse with Winker. But hey, maybe they can blast their way into the postseason? Somewhere, Jack Zduriencik is pumping his fist.
There weren’t a lot of options, and I don’t blame Jerry for not sacrificing multiple top prospects to acquire someone like Reynolds, but surely something more could have been done.
Weird to think that right now the fourth outfielder might be Hamilton or Trammell if Rodriguez doesn’t break camp with the team. It’s March 24th and there are some considerable holes remaining.