Game 5, Mariners at White Sox – Happy Brash Day
Matt Brash vs. Vince Velasquez, 1:10pm
Given where the M’s are in their contention cycle, we’ve been treated to quite a few pitching debuts recently. Justus Sheffield, Justin Dunn both made their starting debuts in 2019, alongside the NPB vet Yusei Kikuchi. Last year, it was Logan Gilbert’s turn. It remains exciting, but some downright disaster starts (Dunn’s) and retroactive reassessment (Sheffield) can make us cynical about the whole thing. But there’s something about Matt Brash that’s almost cynicism-proof. I think a part of it is the sheer *lack* of hype Brash has until late last season, despite out-pitching many of the M’s top prospects, and the reason for *that* is his undeniable stuff. Sheffield had an underpowered fastball, but a solid slider. Gilbert has a good fastball, but a slider without much spin that he’s still trying to refine. Dunn…I’m not really sure what Dunn had beyond a hard-to-pick-up fastball, I guess. Brash has perhaps the best two-seam fastball and the best slider of any SP in the minors, and I can’t wait to see them in the big leagues.
Isn’t this hyping up of Brash just setting M’s fans up for disappointment? Like, if he’s not instantly successful, then what do we make of his repertoire? I think the most important thing is that this is the M’s fifth starter, and God knows M’s fans know well how to be patient. His command was impeccable in the spring, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a little shaky in the early going. All he needs to do is settle down and trust the stuff that got him here. Brash can get out of jams thanks to his bat-missing ability, and he has surprisingly little in the way of platoon splits despite the sinker/slider combo (he’s got other pitches too). He can probably throw hard knowing he won’t go more than 5 IP at most, and he can trust his defenders to…wait, the OF is Winker/Kelenic/Haniger? Hmm. Ok, go for the K, Matt.
Brash’s super-high spin slider gets astonishingly high horizontal movement, an attribute teams are increasingly looking for due to its correlation with Ks. He gets run on his fastball as well, making it one of the more visually pleasing heaters in the game as well as what we all hope is an effective one. It’s interesting: I’ve been looking for comps for Brash based on pitch movement, and they’re nearly all relievers. I mentioned in the spring that perhaps the best match is Reds’ reliever Tejay Antone, but probably the most famous high-octane sinker/slider combo is Blake Treinen’s. Joely Rodriguez, Michael King, Joe Mantiply, too. Part of this has to do with the fact that sinkers have been horribly out of fashion, especially for starters, and hard-throwing starters even more. Tyler Anderson has a fastball with run, but he’s still a terrible comp for Brash. Four-seamers with rise get more swings and misses, but they also give up a lot of elevated contact, a scary proposition in the current era of baseball. The guys who rely on sinkers almost do so by default; there just aren’t a ton of 90-91 mph four-seam guys anymore (except Dylan Bundy, who dominated yesterday), and so you get the M’s shifting Sheffield’s sinking four-seamer into an even sinkier sinker. Brash is, hopefully, a herald of something different. I think the game is better when not everyone is trying to do the exact same thing. If you could get 85% of Treinen, or 95% of Antone *as a starting pitcher*, you’d take it, right? Ok, Ok: how about this for a comp: Charlie Morton.
Opposing him is one of the many, many reclamation projects starting today. It seems like nearly every team has one, from the high-end/top-shelf reclamations like Kikuchi (starting for Toronto) to the mid-tier guys like Chris Archer, to the bargain-basement ones like Velasquez. A one-time Astros prospect, Velasquez burst onto the scene with the Phillies in 2016, showing swing-and-miss stuff and just barely enough control to make the strikeouts play. With an elevated four-seamer around 95, he got plenty of whiffs but gave up a lot of home runs, too. Over time, the walks increased, and the HRs didn’t go away, and he essentially pitched his way out of Philly. Part of the problem is that his career numbers are worse with men on, leading to poor strand rates, and thus an ERA that’s higher than his FIP. The Padres brought him and Jake Arrieta in last year when their once-promising season was fully engulfed in flames, and Velasquez just added more fuel: in four starts, he went 0-3 with an ERA of 8.53, giving up 4 HRs per 9 innings.
I’m a *bit* surprised a team contending for the AL Pennant has slotted him in as the 5th starter, but it’s also true that he’s talented and still misses a lot of hitters. If you can figure out the HR thing, and hopefully keep him in the zone, you’d have a 5th starter with more upside than most (er, outside of Brash, of course). He doesn’t throw 95 anymore; he’s more like 93. He struggles against lefties despite a solid repertoire that includes a fastball, curve, change, and slider. In his second career start in April of 2016, he threw a complete-game shutout of the Padres with 16 Ks and no walks, and that alone will give him plenty of second chances.
1: Frazier, 2B
2: France, 1B
3: Winker, LF
4: Haniger, RF
5: Toro, 3B
6: Suarez, DH
7: Kelenic, CF
8: Torrens, C
9: Crawford, SS
SP: BRASH WOOOOOOOOO
Some of the other intriguing match-ups today include the Marlins/Angels game, featuring ex-A’s prospect and probably just an ex-prospect Jesus Luzardo against Pedro Sandoval. Bryce Elder also makes his MLB debut tonight, starting for Atlanta against the Nationals. Luis Garcia, the Astros’ breakout rookie starter last year, makes his season debut tonight against Madison Bumgarner and Arizona. Alex Cobb’s the Giants’ latest reclamation, and he’ll get his first start against Yu Darvish and San Diego. And in a cool battle of dueling reclamations, Chris Archer starts for Minnesota against the Dodgers’ Andrew Heaney.
In the minors, the Rainiers dropped Sunday’s finale in Tacoma 7-1 to Salt Lake. They’re in action tonight in Albuquerque.
Arkansas won last night’s game against Springfield 4-3, with change-up maven Devin Sweet getting the win in relief. Sweet is one of those guys that will likely see time in the big leagues, probably this year. Another is ex-org depth RP Penn Murfee, now in Tacoma. Guy’s simply played his way into prospect status, albeit not exactly blue-chip prospect status. Today’s game was an early one, won by the Redbirds, 6-3. Joe Rizzo hit his second homer of the campaign, but Connor Jones and the Travs pitchers couldn’t make it hold up. Jones did K 6 in 3 IP, though.
Everett’s game on Sunday was suspended due to rain. Today, they’re in Hillsboro to take on the Hops. Jimmy Joyce starts for the AquaSox.
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Well, Brash was inpressive but the M’s offense made another so-so pitcher look like a Cy Young candidate.
Hoo boy, Kelenic and Julio are a combined 2 for 29 with 16 Ks. This, uh, is going to be a problem if this keeps going on.
(Yeah, I know, Small Sample Size Theatre, etc, but man, after an off-season where Seiya Suzuki or any other number of possibilities were there, even fourth OFers…)
^Yeahhhh, Suzuki didn’t get off to quite the same start that Kelenic and Rodriguez have. That was the offseason snub/miss/whatever that stung the most for me. Taking a shot on a player that destroyed NPB isn’t the same as taking a shot on high-profile prospects or major-leaguers that have been bad for two straight years, regardless of reason(s) or projections.
But Jerry made his bed and must now lie in it. Hopefully he’ll change the sheets quickly if necessary.