Game 13, Rangers at Mariners
Marco Gonzales vs. Taylor Hearn, 6:40pm
Taylor Hearn emerged last year as one of Texas’ few home-grown starters capable of sticking around in a big league rotation. The lefty throws a fastball/slider mix, with the four seam coming in at 93-94. He has a firm cutter as his 3rd pitch, and will occasionally mix in a change. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats, his control is good, not great, and he had some HR issues last year thanks to :gestures at modern baseball: and a low ground ball rate. He’s stuck in the rotation because he’s…fine, and the Rangers have been rebuilding. The idea is that he continues to improve into something more than fine, or maybe next year’s spending spree is focused on pitching.
One thing would help Hearn, though: not facing Seattle. He has faced Seattle more than any other opponent, and he is 0-3 with a 6.20 ERA against them. He made his MLB debut in Seattle in 2019. In 1/3 of an inning he gave up 5 runs, walked 4, K’d none, aaaand got hurt, ending his season. It’s only been up from there, but he has continued to struggle against the M’s. If you remove the M’s from his totals, he’s got a 4.46 ERA in 105 innings. With them, it shoots up to about 4.8.
So, the league-wide trend in velocity continues its seemingly inexorable climb in 2022. Fastball usage is down, as hitters see fewer pitches they like to hit, and more and more pitches designed in a lab to be difficult to hit. This year’s cool pitch is the sweeper, a horizontal-breaking slider, kind of like Matt Brash’s or Paul Sewald’s. Driveline’s Chris Langin notes that horizontal break is up on sliders, and noticeably. All of this should be sending strikeouts – already high – through the roof. But league-wide K rates are down.
Is this due to the arrival of new low-K rookies from Wander Franco to Steven Kwan? Or are batters learning to foul off tough breaking balls? Has hitting training focused more on countering pitchers’ specific arsenals, or just trained batters to handle velocity more? I don’t have answers now, but want to dive into this at some point.
1: Frazier, 2B
2: France, 1B
3: Winker, LF
4: Suarez, 3B
5: Crawford, SS
6: Murphy, C
7: Toro, DH
8: Rodriguez, CF
9: Moore, RF
SP: Marcoooo
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Defense.