What To Do At DH Next Year?
After watching one of the worst offenses in recent history, there is little doubt that the Mariners are going to pursue a hitter of some sort this winter. It would be almost unthinkable for them to bring back a similar roster next year and ask people to sign up for season tickets under the premise of “Chone Figgins should improve and Milton Bradley might be healthy this time!” They need a better offense for baseball reasons, but they also need a better offense for attendance and profitability reasons.
However, as we’ve discussed and as Matthew laid out at Looking Landing yesterday, the Mariners aren’t going to have a ton of money to spend this winter. They won’t be players for Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth, and will have to inject some life into the offense without shopping in the high rent district. And, in looking at the projected roster for next year, there’s really only one spot open where they could add a bat with some life – designated hitter.
They’re not going to sign a guy to block Michael Saunders from playing left field, as they’ll need to see what he can do everyday next year. They’re not going to sign a first baseman, as ditto on Justin Smoak. They could theoretically sign a third baseman and leave Figgins at second base, but they’re not going to want to close off Dustin Ackley‘s path to the big leagues, and Figgins hasn’t been very good at second base. They won’t be able to unload Jack Wilson‘s contract, and finding a shortstop who can hit isn’t easy anyway. In reality, DH is the only place where they can really add some offense.
Even if Milton Bradley returns to the team next year, they won’t count on him as an everyday player. His lack of production and his injury problems, not to mention his well publicized personal issues, mean that he’ll likely just be fighting for a job as the fourth outfielder and occasional DH in spring training. At best, the team will pencil him in for 300 to 400 at-bats, and probably not even expect that much. So, while he’s on the roster, they’re not going to let his presence stop them from pursuing another DH option.
So, the question is, what should the team do with the DH spot?
Their options are, essentially:
1. Pick up Russell Branyan‘s $5 million option for next year.
2. Sign an aging free agent to a short term deal with the promise of regular playing time.
3. Go with a younger, unproven guy who hasn’t had a real chance to show what he can do with 500 at-bats in year.
I’ll say unequivocally that they shouldn’t go with option #1. Branyan’s a decent enough player, but given his age, back problems, and overall averageness, there’s no reason to give him $5 million next year. He won’t get that from any other team, and there’s no reason for the M’s to blow a good chunk of their winter spending money on a guy with so many questions and so little long term upside. If they could bring him back for $1 million or $2 million, and they didn’t have any better options, that might be something to look at, but there’s no way they should exercise the current option on his deal.
The second option is probably the most likely, as it’s a free agent class filled with guys who have a little bit of offense left in the tank, but not much else. Forget Adam Dunn – he doesn’t want to DH, and he’s certainly not going to relocate across the country to DH for a team that was among the worst in baseball. Other options include Hideki Matsui, Lyle Overbay, and Brad Hawpe, all of whom would likely sign for one year at potentially reasonable prices, but would simply serve as stop-gaps for the 2011 season, and likely have little in the way of a long term future in Seattle.
The last option is the kind of move that the front office made two years ago, when they were renovating the roster that they inherited. They took gambles on Branyan, Franklin Gutierrez, and David Aardsma, seeing all three pay off with returns well above the cost of investment. This is the kind of move that makes the most sense baseball wise, as the team could attempt to find a decent player who could help them in 2011 and beyond, and would likely not take up much of the limited room in the budget.
A great example is Dan Johnson, who the Rays are getting production from after picking him up for a song over the winter. They gave him $500,000 to serve as a bench guy, but then cut him in spring training. He mashed in Triple-A all year, and has continued to hit since being recalled in August. His .235 average isn’t much to look at, but he walks a lot (20.4% BB%) and has good power (.250 ISO), allowing him to produce despite the low batting average. In a lot of ways, he’s like a Russ Branyan with a bit less power, but he has the added benefit of being younger, healthier, and striking out less often.
Johnson will be arbitration eligible this winter, and will probably get between $1 and $2 million based on his service time and pretty solid numbers down the stretch for Tampa Bay. The Rays may choose to hang onto him and just give him their DH job next year, but they also might want to do a little better at DH than a 30-year-old career journeyman, especially if they are trying to replace Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford this winter. I don’t know if he’ll be available or not, but he’s an example of the kind of guy that the Mariners could get a lot of value from.
The last option is the best one, I think, as the team could extract short term and long term value from a position where they don’t have an internal answer ready to step in, and they could do it without using a bulk of the limited resources they’ll have this winter. However, there’s no way to sell Dan Johnson (or someone like him) as a difference maker to the fanbase, and I’m sure there will be pressure to make a splash with a bigger name thumper. Will the team go for the move that makes the most sense given the roster construction, or will they try to appease an angry group of customers who want a guy whose name they know?
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I’m a big Branyan fanyon, but bringing him back (even at $1M) has the slight problem of we still suck.
With Branyan in the lineup, the team has a historically inept offense. Picking up the option, or signing him to a new deal, either way we’re treading water. And that’s regardless of whether you look at it from the standpoint of “an angry group of customers who want a guy whose name they know” or from a more USSM-centric standpoint.
If going with option 3 is out of the frying pan and into the fire, Branyan is staying in the frying pan and getting cooked anyway.
This is going to be a long offseason of posting and commenting if we don’t remember one rule of thumb: Don’t talk about payroll!
1) We don’t have the money to acquire players who could make a significant difference next year
2) If we did have the money, those players wouldn’t come here anyway.
Thank you.
I tend to agree a bit. Not all of us are smart enough to run the biggest blog for a pro sports team. Stop expecting us to be as such and please refrain from silly insults. (I may have one coming my way now… haha).
Brad Hawpe and Dan Johnson are essentially the same age (2 months apart), I don’t know why the M’s would prefer Johnson other than maybe he’d be cheaper. Unless the M’s could find a player who had a real shot to be valuable I’d rather have a surer thing. I know we’ll be rebuilding next year, but I’d still like to watch the games.
Option 3 guys are going to either be expensive or notable long shots. If you can find someone who’s young and a long shot…maybe, but god this year was miserable.
On the sunday night broadcast Dave Campbell opined that Manny Ramirez was going to have to take a pay cut and DH to get a job next year, and that a team like Seattle will need some hitting help …
Imagine Manny Ramirez and Milton Bradley on the same team….wouldn’t be pretty.
Not everyone has to be smart, but at least everyone should try to research what they post. I don’t come here to read opinions people pull out of their asses without doing any research or putting any thought into it. There are plenty of sites (bleacher report, Seattle Times, ESPN, etc.) for that.
Sign Matsui, his numbers in Safeco are awesome, Branyan is good, but his problems in the back are dangerous, or maybe trade for Billy Butler?? He´s not a power hitter, but is a .300 hitter, or why not renegociate with Branyan and sign Victor Martinez, both for 12 millions, and then trade for a SS like Brignac or Yunel Escobar
At the same time, there’s a proper way to suggest people re-think something, or suggest an alternative way to look at a particular topic.
As you can tell from my previous posts, I’m one of the “angry fans” that Dave is referring to. I’ve watched Mariners baseball for many years and while this may not be the worst M’s team it is probably the most unwatchable. They simply cannot put a similar product out on the field next year without fans jumping ship in droves.
I don’t believe we’re going to see minor changes around the margins like Dave is suggesting in acquiring players like Dan Johnson. I believe we’re going to see wholesale changes to the roster with only Felix, Guti, and Ichiro assured of being here next spring. If the M’s are going to be bad next year, it will be with a much different roster. They are NOT going to inflict the same roster, with a few minor changes, on us next year. That would be suicidal from a business standpoint and they know it.
So from a business standpoint, the smart thing to do is throw $24 million down the drain to get rid of Wilson and Bradley and part of Figgins’ contract (because no one else will be taking on their contracts), on top of the $6.5 million owed to Betancourt and Silva, and reload with–where does the reload money come from again? The team is stuck for 2011. Revenues are down, budget not likely to go up, very little wiggle room, and cheap replacements coming from the farm at several positions.
If the team is successful (.500-plus) in 2012 and looks to have a young core that will be competitive for a while, I expect that plenty of fans will be back.
This is one of the reasons I don’t envy Z (assuming he’s still here this offseason). On the one hand, I’m sure he has little interest in spending big money on a DH, but he also knows he has to provide a product that fans will want to buy.
While I think folks like rsrobinson are wrong as to what the team should and will do, the challenge is going to be to stick to the plan while also fielding a team that is worth watching. Because this team, sadly, is rarely worth watching except on the days that Felix pitches.
And my metric for that is Dave. Because I can’t recall a season where I have read more Gameday posts from him that essentially say “I’m not going to watch because I’m doing something fun with my wife instead, and I have no regrets.” I have had run-ins here with Dave (and more often, DMZ) in the past, so just to be clear I mean this with 100% sincerity — If you are the Seattle Mariners, you aren’t winning, and you also aren’t putting a team on the field that Dave and the folks here can feel good about watching, you have a very serious problem.
Well, unfortunately, just because someone wants to do something doesn’t mean they have the ability to do it. The M’s may want to make major changes, but realistically they can’t. They don’t have enough money or prospects to fill all the holes with name-brand, good upside guys. And even if you buy name-brands, you chure can’t be certain of results.
The Gillick/Bavasi legacy was a bare cupboard in the minors and albatross contracts in the majors. Zduriencik had to go outside the org for a CF and SS, and C is still a question mark. Consider that even in the Torre-era Yankee run with all their money, all three up-the-middle positions were Yankee farm products.
The M’s need to grow their system.
I never claimed there was an easy solution to the payroll mess they’re currently in. What I am saying is that trotting out the same roster, minus Jose Lopez and with a few new cheap marginal players like Dan Johnson, is not going to cut it with the public. Dave is certainly right about that. I believe they are going to make significant moves this offseason. We’ll have to wait and see who is right.
Don’t be surprised to see a payroll increase for the right players. With the money coming off the books after 2011 and Ichiro probably signing a more friendly extension before 2012 there is some flexibility in coming years that is not being accounted for here.
-Sign Tejada, Eckstein or Uribe as a SS, three are better offensively than Jack and Josh (4 MILLIONS)
-Sign Buck or trade for Arencibia, or Jaso.(2 MILLIONS)
-Resign Branyan or sign Matsui (4 OR 5 MILLIONS)
-Release Kotchman
-Sign Kevin Millwood (1.5 MILLIONS)
-Sign high risk pitchers like Bedard or Sheets (2 MILLIONS + INCENTIVES)
-Trade Aardsma for any prospect.(-5 MILLIONS)
All of this for aprox. 15 millions, – 5 of Aardsma, 10 millions, and a more watchable team.
Ichiro
Figgy
Tejada/Uribe (SS)
Branyan/Matsui
Smoak
Guti
Saunders
Buck
Ackley
Felix-Bedard/Sheets/Millwood-Vargas-Fister-Pineda
Bullpen:
Cortes
Lueke
League
Kelley
French
Hyphen
cheap FA (Takahashi)
CMC-Stags – Yeah, I know, the rotation looks pretty flimsy with just Felix and then 4 not-Felixes. And that basically trading a guy for prospects and then freeing up the money to get one guy doesn’t make for a very reassuring offseason after a season like this one.
But I’d just like to see the money spent on one premium player, and the rest of the roster going mostly towards playing the kids where possible. A combination of a low or even lower payroll plus more nickel-and-dime bargain-basement free agent shopping is just maddening. Scrape all the $ together to get one good player, instead of sprinkling it around on a bunch of question marks like the Ms did this past spring.
I’m just chafing against not having the money to get premium players. I’ll get over it by the offseason, hopefully…
Oh, man, hopefully no one will take the idea of Manny Ramirez seriously. Think about it – even given his last few high-salary contracts, Ramirez eventually seemed to reach a point where he felt underpaid and under-appreciated (lord knows how…). He very well may have to take a pay cut for next season, but if so I suspect he’s going to be a problem even early on.
Oh, I completely agree. I’m just not sure they have much choice. They can probably afford one name-brand FA at DH, just like Dave wrote. But I just don’t see any way for them to do “wholesale” changes without setting themselves even further back.
Moore, Smoak, Ackley, and Saunders need to be in the lineup (Ackley maybe not at the start of the year). Guti and Ichiro too. That leaves Figgins, Wilson and the DH spot. They can’t trade Figgins for anyone better, signing a SS better than Wilson is probably too expensive (it’s still a premium position, perhaps more so than any time since A-Rod came into the league), That leaves DH, where the smart shopper can get the most bang for his free agent dollar.
But while signing a new DH and calling up some kids from Tacoma is the smart thing, I don’t think it would qualify as wholesale changes.
Bradley and a trial for AAA players like Carp, Halman and others will most likely be our DH’s for next year. Then after Bradley leaves, make a promise not to pay another team for our players. Paying $5.5 million or about 6% of our payroll for Silva next year sickens me.
Maybe sign a cheap bat like Jay Gibbons, Rueben Rivera or John Lindsey and give them some AB’s. Just an average replacement player please who can hit .270ish and ,if possible, someone who wants to bat 4th.
I would keep an eye on Webb’s recovery and maybe offer him an incentive laden contract or sign Jorge De La Rosa. Also, Jack, please sign at least one left handed reliever.
As with any site, it’s a site to post opinions that are consistent with the premises and bases of the site. In that regard, the authors have conveniently provided a USSM orientation, prominently featured in the top bar of the site and linked here for your convenience.
If you’ve merely been careless, I would particularly commend to you to the Ryan Franklin discussion, as it bears directly on your situation. Then, with your newfound grasp of what is expected of you, we await your further explanation and elucidation of the awesomeness that is Mike Wilson and that has eluded so many of us.
But if you actually did read the Orientation and still made your post about Mike Wilson ….. well then please understand that many of us will have little to no sympathy for your plaint.
Nobody ever said he was awesome. I said it’s worth giving him a shot compared to what is out there in the free agent market for the same price as him. The 2nd worst record in baseball with the least runs scored needs to be weighing all options and 25 HR’s in 400 AB’s with a .897 OPS between AA and AAA is worth taking a look at.
Option #2 and #3 don’t fill with me with hope since this year the FO completely fell on their faces banking on guys like Kotchman (#3) and Bradley (#2). Hell you might add Griffey also. And why did they think Jack Wilson was going to hit more than terrible? Well maybe they didn’t, but then that contract was too much.
Compared to that, Branyan is a somewhat proven commodity. Spending the same money, I don’t have confidence the FO won’t mess up again, and be able to pick someone who can hit in Safeco/on the Mariners.
And although the picture may look bleak, next season may be addition by subtraction. Lopez gone!, Kotchman gone!, How sweet the sound! (whoever replaces them, could they hit any worse? (please don’t answer that)), Figgins improved.
Would be nice indeed to have an additional bat that doesn’t suck though.
OK – and now that you need to quit whining about being called out when you make posts such as you did.
If you want to make a post about Mike Wilson that will not generate the response that you got, you need to consider the state of discussion of the site and understand why Mike Wilson is not considered a realisitic and make your contrary case. As the guidelines say, that might seem like a terrible burden, but there it is. LIve with it.
it’s kind of a vicious cycle starting here, sort of a chicken or the egg problem. If the Mariners don’t put some excitement out there, attendance will crater, and then you have less money for players going forward. Payroll will continue the get squeezed.
The season ticket renewal letter I got ,personally xerox’d, by Jack Z. make me want to have minor league season tickets instead Mariners seats.
How they are going to address this next year is not to greatly upgrade the players, but to continue to play younger guys from the organization, and try and bring in a big name manager to attempt to restore some credibility and get us to “believe big” again. They will have to rely on personalities, as the on the field product is years away from being any good, if they ever get good again. As the sifting process continues, I would be suprised to find most of the current players, or even the call ups, on the major league roster in 2 years. The only long term fixture I see is Guti. Ichiro will be retired, Smoak might make it, but everyone else will be gone.
Branyan is not good option because of all the strikeouts, back problems due to that bad twisting swing, and the low batting average. He’s really not that productive at driving in runs.
And giving mediocre players “a shot” is a fools errand. Good organizations don’t just bring up any bozo for “a shot”. They make is super tough to crack the big league roster and make getting out of AAA ultra-competitive and cutthroat. Otherwise, you get Adam Moore on your big league team, getting “a shot”.
Actually, attendance has already cratered. It’s not going to get that much worse over the next couple of years. As odd as it sounds, the worst thing the M’s could do is panick and try to put “a competitive team” on the field next year. By “competitive” I mean competing for a playoff spot. There’s really just no way short of good luck that they’re going to do that next year. No team – not even the Yankees with thier obscene budget – is routinely competitive without a functional farm system pumping talent into the club each year. The M’s have had very little talent come out of their farm system in recent years. Moore, Ackley, Smoak and Saunders are hopefully the first wave of guys to turn that around.
The M’s need to fix their farm system and let the inflow of talent lift their baseline to where a few key FA signings put them over the top. They’ll never buy their way there, they need to build their way.
Hopefully you’re talking about Mike Wilson here, because the other guys (Smoak, etc.) are better than mediocre prospects. They need more than “a shot.” And good teams don’t make getting out of AAA ultra-competitive. Getting into AAA might be ultra-competitive, but good teams put young talent on their AAA roster and develop those guys into MLB regulars. AAA isn’t some place where mediocre prospects are put through the fires of competition and forged into gritty, hustling ballplayers. It’s a place where talented guys make the last set of adjustments before moving onto the Big Leagues.
And to hopefully put a wrap on Mike Wilson, that’s the central point.
Guys like Mike Wilson are not at all uncommon. They’re just not worth wasting time investigating at the MLB level.
Might that assessment ultimately prove wrong? Certainly – occasionally a Mike Wilson does make a step forward. But the probabilities of that happening are so low that you should accept that risk so that you can devote your effort to players who offer better probabilities.
I’ll grab some numbers, for illustration purposes. Let’s say 5 out of every 100 Mike Wilson’s take that step forward; the decision to simply consider him AAA organization filler has a 5% chance of being wrong. Meanwhile, there are other players in the organization or freely available talent free agents, who offer a 10% to 20% chance of being useful players.
There’s no point in wasting effort on the 5% potential payoff options when there are other options with higher potential payoffs.
******
Playing time is a finite resource; every decision to give playing time to one person is a decision to not give it to someone else. Smart organizations don’t waste that resource on the Mike Wilson’s of baseball.
Why don’t you tell me why Mike Wilson is not an option. Take your own advice and explain your argument.
And what’s with the anger. Some people take this stuff a little too serious. We are talking about a game here.
The M’s use their resources on the Kotchman’s of the world. Doesn’t exactly make the M’s a smart organization.
Mike Wilson is playing in AAA at age 27 (read: pretty much a finished product).
His .897 combined AA-AAA OPS wouldn’t put him in the top 10 in OPS in the PCL (ignoring that it wasn’t all compiled in the PCL. And yes, I know, places like Albuquerque inflate OPS).
If you’re not dominating AAA at 27, you’re not a very good ballplayer- and he’s not, not any more than Matt Mangini, Mike Carp or Brad Nelson are, who don’t have a huge difference in performance than him. (Carp and Mangini are 24, BTW, which makes them considerably more valuable.)
Oh, and Safeco sucks as a park for RHB who whiff a lot.
Instead of linking you to the site guidelines, I’ll make it extremely easy for you and quote the relevant portions below:
As hss been noted before Mike Wilson has already been discussed here. It’s your obligation to acquaint yourself with the current state of the argument and proceed from there.
Sorry, I don’t read the site every single day to know that Mike Wilson has already been discussed. The fact that you won’t take the 5 minutes to do so is pretty lame.
Yeah, Steve. You should spend 5m explaining every previously discussed topic to every person who raises that same topic again in the future, forever.
For free.
In other words, you can’t be bothered by silly things such as site guidelines.
I guess you figure that posting guidelines for other people. Somehow I missed the part in your posts where you explained why you’re so special that you shouldn’t be held to the same standard as others.
Sorry about missing that. Perhaps you can show me where that part was.
Why don’t you spend the five minutes to figure that out, Steve? Pretty lame.
You obviously take this stuff a little too serious. I’m just looking for your opinion on Mike Wilson since you’re so full of knowledge. I get on here about once a week so excuse me if I’m not following the so called guidelines. Slap me on the hand I guess because I’ve broken the blogger rules, shame on me. Seriously? Guidelines? Lighten up man. You could have explained the whole Mike Wilson sucks thing by now instead of telling me to follow the guidelines several times.
Since I’m not as cool as you guys, can you point me to where you talked about Mike Wilson? Again, I don’t get on here every day and read every post to know that Wilson was already talked about. I’m just not that cool I guess.
Here’s the deal, using the phrase “Mike Wilson” is the equivalent of giving everybody the double finger. It’s a double “blogofinger”. A fingermoticon if you will.
It would be for example the same as me calling you a “Sean White” or telling you to go get “Byrnes’d”
Prediction time: Lopez option picked up. Branyan signs less to stay here. Figgins takes third, Ackley comes out of spring training as starter at 2nd.
Lopez and Branyan platoon at DH. With Lopez at third on the days Figgins spells Ackley at 2nd.
I’m not judging this, I simply predict this will happen.
Thank you
Discuss
Jose Lopez has about as much chance of being on this team next year as Jose Vidro.
I really like the Victor Martinez idea, and he doesn’t have to block Dan Johnson, Russell Branyan, Brad Hawpe, or whomever the M’s decide to throw into the DH role. He can split the time evenly with Moore behind the plate, get some games at DH, and a few at 1B:
V-Mart: 81 g – C, 42 g – DH, 22 g – 1B (145 total).
Smoak: 140 g – 1B.
Johnson/Branyan/Hawpe: 120 g – DH.
Moore: 81 g – C.
Moore isn’t really blocked because he still plays half of the games. Additionally, if one of these guys gets hurt, there isn’t much of a dropoff, and we would actually have some depth. The drawbacks I see are the money (I think 3/$30 might be a low-end deal for Martinez), and we would have to figure out the emergency catcher role for when Martinez is the DH (maybe Brandon Inge to a one-year deal).
A lineup of Ichiro, Figgins, Martinez, lefty DH, Smoak, Saunders, Gutierrez, SS, Ackley against righties isn’t terrible. Ichiro, Gutierrez, Martinez, Inge, Smoak, Saunders/Halman, Moore, SS, Ackley against lefties still kind of sucks, but is better than what we trotted out this year.
I think Dave is right that the M’s are going to spend on a bat this winter, and my vote is to spend that money on a guy that doesn’t block the young guys much, gives the team depth, and improves the lineup significantly.
Victor Martinez is awesome. And he’ll never ever come here to play for this crappy team. And they won’t even pursue him.
Here’s something from an article over at ESPN. I found this insulting, and yet troubling.
I need to go look up to see what the league average is for those positions.
And Moore isn’t going to make it in MLB. He can’t hit enough to even be a platoon guy. He either losses his job to somebody else in spring training or he a third string catcher.