M’s Not On Upton’s No Trade List
A few days ago, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Mariners were one of four teams on Justin Upton’s limited no-trade list. Rosenthal is almost always right, and breaks a ton of news, but it turns out that he missed on this one, as no less a source than the agency that represents Upton said on Twitter today that the Mariners are not on Upton’s list.
This is interesting for the obvious reason, as it means that we can resume wondering about just how much the M’s should be willing to offer Arizona to get Upton to Seattle. It’s also interesting for a more subtle reason, I think – that Upton’s agents felt it necessary to set the record straight on this particular rumor tells me that there’s a decent chance that the Diamondbacks and his agents have already talked about where he would be willing to go based on the teams that have shown the most interest.
When was the last time you saw an agency correct a rumor like this? It just doesn’t happen, and there’s no way this was the first piece of incorrect information that has ever been floated about one of their clients. However, they felt that it was important this time to correct the public record. We can only speculate as to why, but if the Mariners were being aggressive in their pursuit of Upton, and the agency knew it was a legitimate possible destination, then it could make some sense to debunk that particular error.
I could be wrong, but it’s worth thinking about, at least.
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I love how Justin Smoak’s been turned into a “legitimate MOTO bat” after a .239/.287/.407 season in MLB- and being OLDER than Justin Upton (who very clearly is outhitting him, but isn’t clearly a MOTO bat yet) as well as being very obviously better than Dustin Ackley.
I don’t think this is obvious at all.
BTW, what scares me about Upton? Lifetime .905 OPS in Arizona, .742 in the rest of MLB. Holy Home Field Inflation of Stats, Batman! But hey, it worked out great when we did this with Adrian Beltre, right? Right?
I’m hesitant about this possible trade.
I understand that prospects are prospects, and that their overall chances of panning out are slim, but Smoak, Pineda, and Ackley have as much a chance of becoming good players as any prospect. People have listed the holes on the team several times, and that includes a first baseman, a reliable #2 pitcher, a second baseman, and a shortstop. Franklin is a ways away, but I feel like just because we have a chance to acquire a very good player in Upton doesn’t mean we should.
I’m also not sold on Upton completely. He’s a very, very good player, but trading our top pitching prospect, one of our top middle infielders, or anyone else with them seems like a steep price for anyone, and this is no exception. Towers is asking for the moon for Upton, and I don’t think he’s worth that much.
This does smell like the Bedard trade, but I take comfort in the fact that we won’t be giving away the majority of our best prospects because Jack Z is not an idiot. If they do trade for him, I hope it doesn’t contain Ackley or Pineda at the very least; I like Smoak a lot too, but he is more expendable compared to those two.
NB: I think Upton’s a very good player, the same way Beltre was for us… but those home/road splits scare me. I wonder if a few years later, if he’s acquired, it will be a case of vague disappointment among the fanbase, just like Beltre, because half his games are at Safeco, Where Fly Balls Go To Die.
Would they get the chance to see Bieber go Upton Smoak? Cuz that would be worth it to me.
List of 2B who can reasonably be expected to produce similar or better numbers than Ackley for at least the next two seasons.
Ellis, Kinsler, Kendrick, Hudson, Beckham, Aviles, Cano, Pedroia, Zobrist (or Rodriguez, or Brignac), Hill, Roberts, Sanchez, Johnson, Phillips, Weeks, Utley, Uggla, Prado and maybe even Jose Lopez (just kidding).
List of switch hitters at any position who can reasonably be expected to hit .280 with 80 BB’s and 25-30 home runs in 2011 or 2012.
Teixeira – yes, slow starts and average only questions
Morales – does not walk at nearly high enough rate but other numbers should be there
Swisher – most likely yes if he keeps avg. up and walk rates return to normal after down 2010 although he never showed consistency like this until in Yankee lineup and Yankee hitters paradise
Berkman – unlikeley considering age, health, playing time
Beltran – would have to stay healthy and have a lot else go right as well
Jones – ditto Berkman and Beltran but moreso
Smoak – has a decent chance to put up those numbers in 2011 and I would say it is highly probable he starts consistently producing at that level in 2012
Smoak is a rare batter with rare skills and so what if he is an average or below average 1B. To me Smoak is the only other untouchable after Felix and Ichiro. You see the list of players with Smoak’s batting skillset and yes some of them provide more value because of defense but I believe every player on that list has made at least one All Star team and so will Smoak. Jack held out to get this guy for a reason and honestly considering Safeco Field I wouldn’t trade Smoak for Upton one for one. Rare commodities have intrinsic value for the scarcity factor alone and players like Smoak are obviously scarce.
Finaly, this is not the best way to predict future results but here is a list of Justin Upton’s comparables through age 22 season;
Ruben Sierra (960)
Dick Kokos (951)
Andruw Jones (949)
Jack Clark (947)
Greg Luzinski (942)
Boog Powell (938)
Jose Canseco (935)
Juan Gonzalez (932)
Whitey Lockman (922)
None of these guys are hall of famers but I’d love to have any of the ones I’ve heard of on my team during their prime seasons. And that was after a down year during which he had injury problems. Here are his comparables after his breakout season as a 21 year old; Ruben Sierra, Miguel Cabrera, Andruw Jones, Hank Aaron, Dick Kokos, Sam Crawford, Jaun Gonzalez, Ron Santo, Willie Mays, Vada Pinson.
But by all means make Ackley untouchable when trying to aquire a supremely gifted five tool player like Upton. And if one of the young position players has to go make sure it is Smoak, because even though he could be the best power hitting switch hitter in all of baseball by 2013 or 2014 left handed hitting mediocre defensive second baseman who draw enough walks to be top leadoff hitters are the truly rare commodity in today’s MLB.
Or folks are thinking that Ackley will be an overall better talent than Smoak, and aren’t just obsessing over powerrrrr numbers.
Again, Pineda and a bunch of pieces should be reasonable for Upton. Any more is overpaying, working it out gives you the Upton/Smoak 3-4 that you’re fixated on.
Upton can not be a free agent until after 2015. The Mariners would be guaranteed to have him for five seasons. He is not a pitcher with an injury history.
This is nothing like the Bedard trade. NOTHING!
Chris-from-Bothell how is a 21 year old pitcher who has never thrown more than 150 innings. And has a history of arm trouble, plus a bunch of B and C prospects, reasonable value for a guy who compares well with HOF’s and perennial All Star’s at a similar age? In a dream or a video game this might be true, in reality it is just not.
Now onto the Ackley vs. Smoak debate. If Ackley becomes what most think, Brian Roberts with the stick, he would have to be a top defensive 2B to hold more value than Smoak and then it still would be up in the air. The only way Ackley is sure to be more valuable than Smoak is if he develops power and defense ala Utley and Phillips. Maybe in a dream, right? Surely it would not be wise to gamble on Ackley becoming Utley or Phillips. In fact the odds of that happening are about the same as Upton turning into the second coming of Hank Aaron and if I had to gamble on one of those happening I’d rather gamble on the guy that could become an all time great. And in Smoak’s case I’d say he should get extra credit for being that rarest of baseball commodities, a power hitting switch hitter. I’d also say that the most likely outcome between Smoak becoming Teixeira or Eddie Murray or Berkman, Ackley becoming Utley, and Upton becoming an all time great would be for Smoak to become a consistent All Star 1B. But hey, maybe all of them bust. My money is on Smoak to be the least likely to disappoint while Upton is the most likely to shock us to the upside and Ackley having the lowest floor and the smallest, like 1%, of chances at reaching an Utley like ceiling.
We are not winning in 2011 so why throw away our top 3 prospects for an above average outfielder? Yes Upton is 23, but he also plays in a more hitter friendly park than Safeco especially for a RH. He was 4th on his team in RBI’s. His contract is more than the 3 top guys we are talking about dealing for him. We have no money to spend as it is so if we get him what do we put around him? Yes we have money in 2012 to spend, but no guarantees we can get a top free agent to come here like always.
I say we make our best offer as follows and if they don’t like it, move on:
Pineda
Figgins (plus salary difference of Reynolds)
Saunders
Lueke
Aardsma
Triunfel
for
Upton
Reynolds
I think by and large, most people are undervaluing Upton, and then not realizing that Arizona has to ‘win’ the trade to make it happen.
What Upton is actually worth in a trade is a little irrelavent. Arizona wants more, or why bother? I also believe they will get it, whether it be the Mariners, or whoever.
Upton really has the chance to turn out to be a Griffey or Mays superstar type. The chances may be slim, but very few players even have that chance.
On a personal note, I am torn. Knowing what the Mariners need to give up is daunting, but the potential in Upton is so intriging… much more so then any of the Mariners prospects.
If it’s just Pineda, Saunders and some promising low level prospects, do it. Otherwise one poster has it right…look at Upton’s home vs away splits and it’s clear we may regret this deal down the line.
To the poster thinking we can get Drew thrown in? Not happening according to the D-backs. Besides, he has 2 years left right? We won’t be competitive for possibly another year or two so he’ll be most likely gone before then.
I like Upton but not enough to empty the farm RIGHT NOW. Too many holes to fill plus Upton alone is not gonna get us to the playoffs next season. Like Dave always has said, when we are on the verge of being competitive and we need to fill one or two holes with big trades, THEN do deals like this.
Rosterbation is all we are doing here and it will take a LOT to get Upton out of Arizona. Not worth it in my eyes.
My worry with Upton:
2007 .300 82 RBI 24 HR 22 SB
2008 .273 67 9 44
2009 .241 55 11 42
2010 .237 62 18 42
Yes this is BJ Upton’s numbers. Remember him? He was a hotter prospect than his younger brother for years and now he can’t make contact. I am not saying that if it happens to one brother the other brother is as likely. I am just saying that Justin is still no lock to get any better. Injuries, mechanics, ballparks all can derail a potentially great career. BJ was 23 in 2007 when he peaked.
I like him, but not for the farm. If this was 2001 type season, then go for it. This is a team that has been the second worst in the league 2 of the last 3 years. One man, even Pujols, won’t change that.
No one is saying Smoak, Ackley and Pineda. That would be stupid. Two of the three is the speculation and I’d say one has to be Pineda and I’d rather the other be Ackley than Smoak.
Smoak – has a decent chance to put up those numbers in 2011 and I would say it is highly probable he starts consistently producing at that level in 2012
Smoak’s 2011 Bill James projections (which are regularly derided as being too optimistic for pitchers AND hitters):
.249/.351/.414
Dustin Ackley’s, BTW, are .239/.325/.358.
So… yeah. Suuuuuuure Smoak’s ready to start knocking out .280 with power and walks. Uh-huh.
If Ackley becomes what most think, Brian Roberts with the stick, he would have to be a top defensive 2B to hold more value than Smoak and then it still would be up in the air.
You do realize Brian Roberts has a couple of All-Star games and 3 4+ WAR seasons to his credit, right? (Which, incidentally, is 3 more 4+ WAR seasons than Nick Swisher.)
Regardless of whether or not Dustin Ackley ran over your dog, the evidence that he’s a dramatically inferior prospect to Smoak’s just not there. I would say “probably a bit too soon to tell”- but the fact that Ackley adjusted a bit faster at AAA (.274/.338/.439) than Smoak did at the same age (.244/.363/.360) might be a point in his favor- especially since he did this while switching positions.
Eponymous, I like how you take the worst case of the switch hitting power guys and apply it to Smoak. It is actually quite accurate. At the worst Smoak turns into a less athletic Swisher with maybe a bit more power.
Nick Swisher – Career 116 OPS+
Of course then there are three more cases that too have similar odds of occuring;
Eddie Murray – Career 129 OPS+
Mark Teixeira – Career 134 OPS+
Lance Berkman – Career 145 OPS+
If he just ended up as a 116 OPS+ guy I would be satisfied. If he ended up as a 129 OPS+ guy I would be content. If he ended up as a 134 OPS+ guy I would be joyful. And if he ended up as a 145 OPS+ guy I would be absolutely thrilled. No matter what I don’t see myself being disappointed by Smoak in the end.
Now I’d like to see some Ackley comps from you? And what you expect in the worst case or in the best?
Of course then there are three more cases that too have similar odds of occuring
Exactly how are you quantifying these odds?
But since you’re bringing names into the discussion…
Eddie Murray, age 23: 480 MLB games, 120 OPS+
Lance Berkman: not a 1B until age 29
Mark Teixeira: age 23: 102 OPS+
I’d say Smoak’s closest to Tex. However, you might note that Tex’s minor league stats (.995 minor league OPS) blow Smoak’s away (.869 minor league OPS). I think I would argue Tex > Smoak.
Now I’d like to see some Ackley comps from you?
No. I don’t think I am good enough at this game to project with the confidence you do (and LHB 2B with very little minor league experience and knocking non the door of MLB in the space of ~150 pro games are not a huge group beyond the Whitakers of MLB). But I know you’re not good enough. Your comp group is all significantly better than Smoak.
I think that Smoak has a lower floor than Ackley. At worst Ackley’s patientience makes him an above-average offensive 2nd baseman, and even if his defense never comes around he should probably end up above replacement level.
Smoak, at worst, will be a poor defensive 1st baseman, and he’s not a lock to hit 20 hrs/year. Without great offensive numbers he could possibly even end up at replacement level or below. The value of position can not be overstated.
If Arizona has to ‘win’ the trade, does that mean that Seattle would have to ‘lose’ the trade? It isn’t like Seattle is ready to contend while Arizona is rebuilding. This isn’t a case of one team trading for the present, while the other team trades for the future. I don’t see how Arizona ‘wins’ the trade and Seattle also ‘wins’ the trade.
Yah, I know. The only way this happens is if Seattle (or another team) thinks Upton will meet his full potential, which is much greater then any one part of what they are giving away.
It is a gamble., which I address in my post.
It is a case of litereally betting the farm.
Now I have to ask: why is it a good strategy to OBTAIN such gambles at substantial cost, rather than to develop them within house?
If you are asking me, I don’t think ‘gamblin’g is a great strategy. I wouldn’t do it if we were talking about life and death, but we are talking about baseball 🙂 It is fun to think about. I never said it was a good strategy
Jack Z. has alot more riding on these decisions then we do (duh). However, if the Mariners have another dismal season, he will probably be gone. He might feel like gambling.
I’m only for the deal if we could get this ustin without giving up either of our ustins.
EPONYMOUS, YOU think they are all better than Smoak . That is why I listed a range of recent powererful switch hitting at least occasional first baseman. If Smoak ends up hitting in that range chances are that Ackley only competes with him in terms of WAR because of the positional adjustment differences between 1B and 2B. That is not insured of happening either though, because Ackley might be awful as a defensive 2B.
Now I’ll list a legitimate range of possibilities for Ackley from an offensive perspective. That is high walk, high average leadoff or second hitter types and I’ll include Utley as a possible best case scenario.
Luis Castillo – Career 92 OPS+
Orlando Hudson – Career 99 OPS+
Brian Roberts – Career 104 OPS+
Roberto Alomar – Career 116 OPS+
Chase Utley – Career 129 OPS+
Now I view those first four players as the legitimate range of offensive contribution that Mariner fans can expect from Ackley. All four of those guys have been All Stars and have hit at the top of lineups for part, most or all of their careers. In all honesty I would be disappointed if Ackley hit like Castillo but a range has to have a worst case scenario. My guess is that Ackley hits better than Hudson and close to even with Roberts. During Roberts best seasons he posted an OPS+ of 139 and 118 which I would guess would be close to what Ackley does in his best seasons. Now maybe everything clicks and Ackley hits like Alomar. That would be thrilling and welcomed. But to suggest that it is reasonable to think that Ackley could hit like Chase Utley is not an expectation based in reality.
In baseball history you have Rogers Hornsby, a man alone atop the mountain of MLB 2B. Then there is basicly Joe Morgan, Jackie Robinson and Chase Utley as the greatest hitting 2B of all time. So suggesting that Ackley becomes that type of hitter, or any Mariner fan that truly believes Ackley becomes that type of hitter, would be similar to me suggesting that Smoak has a reasonable chance of hitting like Jimmie Foxx or Mark McGwire.
There is a chance, however infinitesimal, that a black hole could appear in my back yard. That of course does not make it likely and certainly does not put it within a range of reasonable outcomes. On the other hand, saying that Smoak could hit within a range of 116-145 OPS+ is quite reasonable. That is the range inside which good first baseman are expected to hit. I’m not out there claiming Smoak is going to hit like Mcgwire or Foxx. I’m saying that a 145 OPS+ is reasonable to expect as a best possible outcome for Justin Smoak. If I had to guess as to what Smoak’s OPS+ will be for his career I would guess somewhere between 125-130. But having watched him now, and in the current hitting environment, I would be leaning toward the 130 end of that projection.
Yet I’m “not good enough” to predict or suggest reasonable outcomes for the careers of Smoak or Ackley. And Smoak is clearly “significantly” poor enough of a hitter that suggesting he becomes a very good hitting 1B is unlikely according to you. Especially if the suggestion comes from someone like me who is clearly “not good enough” to make those types of projections. And I’m supposed to sit back and read and listen to a group of Mariners fans and the Mariners blogosphere that tells me Ackley should be untouchable because according to what they say and write it is reasonable to expect Ackley to become one of the half dozen greatest hitting second baseman of all time. Please!
I’m starting to think it is the irrational Ackley supporters who are “not good enough”, to make judgements about anything concerning major league baseball or the Seattle Mariners. The way many talk and write about the kid tells me that logic and reason, concerning him, walked out the door awhile ago.
Add Rod Carew to the greatest hitting second baseman of all time list.
It’s funny because great hitting 2B like Cano and Alomar just don’t compare to Utley, Carew, Robinson, and Morgan. Yet the two names I’ve heard thrown around the most as Ackley comps are Carew and Utley.
Delusional I think.
Yes I do suppose that would be a good addition for you to make. Ryne Sandberg would be a nice addition to your non-inclusive list too.
If Ackley has a career that is similar to Brian Roberts, we will all be whistling zippity doo dah.
Alomar doesn’t compare? HOF 2011. Bank on it. You might also want to double check Cano’s stats -with a few core prime years remaining.
Not a 2B, but Wade Boggs had a career 130 OPS+, which is slightly better than Chase Utley’s career OPS+. Boggs hit more than 10 home runs in exactly two seasons (24 HR in 1987 and 11 HR in 1994).
John Olerud had a career 128 OPS+. Olerud hit more than 10 HRs in most of his seasons, but only hit more than 20 HRs in 5 seasons (out of 16).
Rod Carew had a career 131 OPS and hit more than 10 HRs twice in his career.
There is more than one way for a hitter to add value. So called power isn’t the only way to add power.
Completely spaced Ryno Sandberg. Can’t believe it either because he was once my absolute favorite player. And I didn’t compare Cano with Ackley because Cano is not a hitter that takes walks.
Interesting comps J-Dog, but as I pointed out above I’m not comfortable projecting anyone to have a talent range that gives them a possibility of being a sure fire first ballot HOF before they ever play an MLB game. I stand by my prediction that we can expect Ackley to hit in a range somewhere between Orlando Hudson and Roberto Alomar. Of course if I knew for certain that Ackley would hit like Boggs, Olerud, Carew, Utley, Morgan or Robinson I would say that made him untouchable. As many others have already said. But I’m just not comfortable predicting that level of performance for someone who is not a ‘power hitter’ (for lack of a better term) like Upton or Smoak.
My qualm with the analysis between Ackley and Smoak is that some doubt Smoak’s ability to be a B or B+ player (well above average to very good). While they are basicaly willing to predict that Ackley will turn into an A to A+ player (someone who is basicly assured of someday becoming a HOF member). I just don’t understand the logic behind predictions like that.
I agree with this statement. It is difficult to project a significant difference in future value between these two players at this stage in their careers.
I’m still not seeing an argument for Smoak being a superior hitter at 1B, other than “I think so”.
Well, that’s great. However, shouldn’t he be a superior hitter already, given that he’s OLDER than Justin Upton? As it stands he’s not even a good hitter for 1B yet coming into his age 24 season… but you want to throw him in a comp group with Eddie Murray (lifetime OPS+, 130)- who was already a great hitter by age 23.
But since you insist… Smoak’s closer to Adam LaRoche’s career minor league OPS (.810) than Tex’s (.995). So why is Tex the better comp? Just because he’s a switch-hitter? (FWIW, since you seem to be pushing for this: I think Smoak is closer to the LaRoche/Tino Martinez side of hitters than the Texeira/Murray side, though I’d say he’s got more growth room than Adam LaRoche, so more like a ++.)
My qualm with the analysis between Ackley and Smoak is that some doubt Smoak’s ability to be a B or B+ player (well above average to very good). While they are basicaly willing to predict that Ackley will turn into an A to A+ player (someone who is basicly assured of someday becoming a HOF member). I just don’t understand the logic behind predictions like that.
But that’s not my argument. My argument is that I’d probably evaluate Ackley and Smoak as B/B+ prospects. Quoting myself:
I would say “probably a bit too soon to tell”
Maybe Ackley’s better (he adjusted a bit faster at AAA). Maybe Smoak’s better (he’s probably going to be the better hitter overall, the way Ackley could be ahead in that case is via position adjustment). But there’s no conclusive evidence putting Smoak way ahead of Ackley.
If we had to put one of the two on the line (which I am not crazy about- as I said, that home/road split for Upton scares me), I would trade Smoak in 2011 instead of Ackley, as I think it would be a bit easier to find a veteran 1B as a patch than a veteran infielder, if you assume both players are roughly even (but if Ackley gets the deal done, not Smoak… well, I guess it would depend on how badly you want Upton)… but I just don’t think we know enough to say Smoak >>> Ackley as a prospect.
I know I’m way late to this discussion, and maybe somebody already covered this (I only skimmed, sorry), but
Maybe I’m just a cynical SOB, but here’s my speculation: his agents want to generate as much interest in their client as possible — even if that means creating fictional interest by leaking stuff to the press and the wider internet. It’s not like this is the mechanism they would use to tell Zduriencik that the M’s aren’t on Upton’s no-trade list: they have his number and they can just pick up the phone (I haven’t checked what other players they represent, but it’s likely they talk to Z multiple times in the offseason for other reasons anyway, so an “oh by the way” would be easy).
No, the only reason to go public like this is to (a) drum up some interest in the fanbase, and (b) efficiently let all the other GMs know that the Seattle FO might be a factor in the bidding for Upton’s services. The latter point is the big one; even if Jack publicly says the M’s aren’t interested at the prices Arizona has been demanding, just the fact that the M’s are (supposedly) back on the radar might be enough to stir the pot a bit amongst the other GMs given the record of unlikely trades Z has already amassed. It’s not like this will drive up the bidding the way, say, rumors of Yankees’ involvement might; but given that they almost certainly aren’t involved Upton’s agents have to spread whatever thin gruel they have.