It’s Time To Bench Jack Wilson
A few weeks ago, I laid out a case for Luis Rodriguez to play more often. After watching the rest of April, I’d like to amend that sentiment – I now think Luis Rodriguez should be the Mariners starting second baseman.
I’ve written several times about why I think Rodriguez is interesting, and why the Mariners should give him a real chance to show whether his power surge in the minors last year was real. Even in limited action, Rodriguez is showing that he may really have made some sustainable improvements that make him a pretty interesting player. After yesterday’s home run, Rodriguez now has an Isolated Slugging of .176, not far from the .200 mark he put up in Charlotte last year. However, we’re only talking 42 plate appearances, so you can’t take any set of results too seriously – it’s the demonstrable change in approach that gives me reason for optimism.
Rodriguez has put 28 balls in play this year – you know how many have been hit on the ground? Five. His GB% is just 17.9%, the lowest mark of any Major League hitter with at least 40 PA this year. Even in a small sample, this is a staggering change from the marks he put up previously in his big league career, when he was your typical slap-it-on-the-ground utility infielder. Now, Rodriguez gets significant loft in his swing, and his approach is to try and hit every ball in the air.
That kind of offensive attack leads to fewer but more impactful hits. Rodriguez has essentially traded average for power, and instead of being an empty .280 hitter, he has a chance to be a .260 hitter with some thump. That’s a good trade-off for a guy who has the ability to hit the ball with authority, as he showed last year in Charlotte and so far in April, Rodriguez fits the bill – he’s strong enough to turn on pitches and drive them into the gaps and occasionally over the wall.
Rodriguez’s season line doesn’t look all that great, thanks to a .222 batting average on balls in play, but that’s not going to last. Even the most extreme fly ball hitters in the game post BABIPs in the .250-.260 range, and since Rodriguez is probably more of a doubles guy than a home run guy, his expected BABIP is probably even a bit higher than that. His BABIP, and his overall line, will rise as the season goes along.
However, even with his current unsustainably low BABIP, he’s still out-hitting Jack Wilson, who continues to show no real offensive abilities whatsoever. Wilson’s entire value is wrapped up in his defense, but as a second basemen who is only playing the position out of obligation – and who doesn’t have enough experience there to be good at it – he doesn’t offer a ton of value in the field either. At this point, there isn’t a huge gap between what Wilson and Rodriguez provide at second base defensively, while Rodriguez’s bat is far more potent and interesting.
We all know Jack Wilson’s days in Seattle are numbered. His continual inability to stay on the field, his age, and his declining abilities mean that he’s just playing out the string until the M’s trade him this summer, eating most of his salary in the process. The hope was that he would play well enough to generate some trade interest and get the team a better return, but that’s just not happening – no scout is going to come watch the Mariners play and report back that they’ve wildly underestimated Jack Wilson previously. He is what he is, and everyone knows exactly what that is. If they’re interested in that package, nothing Wilson will do between now and July will change their minds all that much.
So, now, handing Wilson at-bats that could go to Rodriguez is essentially just throwing away an opportunity to find out just how interesting he could actually be. The only way to know whether Rodriguez can sustain success with his new fly ball approach to hitting is to give him a few hundred at-bats and see what happens. Jack Wilson is in the way of that opportunity.
Ideally, the Mariners would just make Luis Rodriguez their starting second baseman as soon as possible. Dustin Ackley’s going to come up at some point this summer, in all likelihood, and Rodriguez’s chances for playing time will take a hit at that point. The opportunity to run him out there everyday is now, and there’s no better alternative on the roster. Adam Kennedy and Jack Wilson aren’t going to be part of the next good Mariners team. They can still fill roles on the roster, but they shouldn’t be starting ahead of Luis Rodriguez.
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26 Responses to “It’s Time To Bench Jack Wilson”
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Great post, Dave, as usual. I was wondering yesterday, thinking about your previous posts regarding Rodriguez, his recent ability to deliver at the plate, and Wilson’s continued (and continually increasing) ineptitude at the plate, how long Wedge could justify to himself running Wilson and not Rodriguez out there. The two glimmers of hope are that Wilson already got himself on Wedge’s s**t-list once this season, and while his eye irritation may have been legitimate (hard to play baseball if you can’t see), I can’t imagine that won him any points with a manager like Wedge, especially if the lineup yesterday was done with a view to giving Ryan a day off, which he then didn’t get. Moreover, Wedge seems to be more interested in results than “belief systems,” so hear hear for Wilson riding some pine. I’d rather he suck as a bench warmer for $5MM than actually cost the M’s opportunities to win games; he’s a sunk cost anyway.
What’s a good comp for Rodriguez, if he were to sustain this improvement in approach and talent? Brandon Phillips?
I agree that this would be a good move. The sooner, the better. Wilson has been known to “fuss,” so any official change won’t help the clubhouse chemistry and the M’s still need him around to play a backup/utility type of role since there are no logical answers for anybody else to do it. I agree with the potential change, but the execution of it might be a bit problemmatic because of how Wilson will likely react. I guess that is why Wedge makes the big bucks.
There are other veterans that need to move along as well, but that is another discussion, entirely. Good analysis Dave.
This is a move without a drawback.
It replaces a below-average player with someone currently better, and it would allow the Mariners to see whether or not Rodriguez could be a cheap super-uttility infielder with some thump off the bench.
The upside is something akin to Mark McLemore, the downside is what we currently have. It’s a no-brainer and I hope the Mariners are future-conscious enough to make this move sooner rather then later.
I’m sure this has been asked before, but can Rodriguez play shortstop? And by “play”, I don’t mean “be above average”, but “won’t completely embarrass himself”.
He put up a -5.7 UZR/150 in 733 career major-league innings at SS, most of which came in 2008-09 with San Diego. He doesn’t seem like a “good” shortstop by any stretch, but could his bat be good enough to allow him to play shortstop after Ackley is promoted?
If so, I wouldn’t mind giving him some of Brendan Ryan’s starts in the second half, particularly against righties. The defense takes a hit, but Vargas and Bedard are flyball lefties, which helps mitigate that. It would be like playing Josh Wilson at shortstop, only Rodriguez is a switch hitter and not terrible.
Great post Dave. Also Luis looks like he genuinely wants to play and will work his butt off compared to jack.
Instead of maclemore, I thing a good comparison, down to his size and batting stance, is a more versatile Joey Cora. Remember when Joey had that year of double digit homers? Think it was 1998, I could see him like that compared to mark.
Considering the competition at second (Kennedy doing well, Ackley whenever he’s ready), how about making Rodriguez the new starting third baseman?
Sounds like a good move to me; Hopefully Wedge feels the same. I would even be happy with Kennedy at 2B instead of Wilson.
Maybe next year. Figgins seems to be back to playing superior defense at 3rd, so that is a plus, and he hasn’t had time to show he can’t hit. By seems, I mean his UZR (so far)is back to what it has been in previous seasons. One real area of concern last year for Figgins was he had 20GIDP, and his previous high before that was 8, this year he has only had 1, so that is better too, but his SB are way down.
Speaking of UZR, whats up with the Mariner’s Outfielders? They can’t really be this bad.
Ichiro UZR150: -24.8
Bradley UZR150: -40.9
Langerhans UZR150: -76.6
They’re obviously not that bad; also you left out an instance that doesn’t support the supposition about Mariners outfielders…
Saunders 2011 UZR/150: 2.6
Actually, looking at Bradley’s historic numbers on FanGraphs – he’s been a better fielder than I’ve given him credit for.
I get that so far Figgens ranks in the upper-tier of 3B by UZR/150, but when I watch him, he looks so overmatched. Anything hit on the button seems to eat him right up. It’s not the stuff that gets by Figgens that bugs me, it’s the stuff that gets through him that bugs me.
What I’d really like to see is Luis Rodriguez in the lineup all the time, playing a combo of 3B SS and 2B depending on what guys need a good sit.
Sort of a Mark McLemore light, as it were, eh?
Works for me.
A pretty similar argument can be made about Brendan Ryan and even Figgins. Given the low production of all three, it makes sense for Luis to continue getting ABs even if Ackley is called up.
McLemore with more power and less OBP. Mark McLemore, with the early ’00s M’s teams, was an on-base machine. A lot of his value was wrapped up in his ability to take a walk.
Except they are adding more defensive value. You definitely don’t want to bench Ryan for Rodriguez, because whatever offensive value you pick up you are likely to give back defensively.
How about benching Cust and giving Rodriguez a bunch of ABs at DH to see if his swing and performance will hold up as Major-League pitchers adjust to him?
I guess I dislike Wilson less than the crowd around here… I know his bat isn’t good; but his athletic defensive plays are *so* much nicer to watch than Figgins’ fumbling around (despite what UZR might say, I agree with the previous poster about the balls getting “through” Figgins). I’d rather see a platoon at 2B & SS that favors the hottest bats between our 3-4 middle-infielders (“hot” being a relative term here, obviously). NONE are in the plans for the future, so why not try to get as many hits as possible and who cares about giving any one of them more time than the others?
That, and the fact he could play anywhere in the infield or outfield.
I always liked McLemore.
McLemore’s Fangraphs WAR from ’00 through ’02 with the Mariners:
1.3, 3.5(!), 1.4. A 2 WAR player is around ML average. And those WAR numbers underestimate his value. Versatility has value, and the raw WAR numbers don’t capture that.
Essentially, the M’s had an extra MLB average player that they could run out at any position on the field.
The ’01 M’s also had Stan Javier as a reserve outfielder, who posted a 2.6(!) WAR in 323 (!) PA. Holy smokes. Both of those guys could have started for just about every other team in baseball that year at some position.
We all know how good that ’01 Mariners team was. There are a lot of big names. But even the bench players had career years.
From the “Silly Things That I Noticed Anyway” file:
I’ve begun to suspect not too many guys on the team are gonna be upset with Jack Wilson gone.
It may really be making a mountain out of a molehill, and I admit it…but I noticed when the M’s won last night, and they did the obligatory “high-five lines”…Wilson tried to do some extravagant foot-and-hand jive with Justin Smoak…who totally ignored the motion, and Wilson. Gave him the barest minimum high-five- and trudged on.
Wilson played it off, but I thought it was kinda odd.
But I agree with you, Dave: We’d be more well-served to have Rodriguez as a regular right now.
Does the idea that leaving Jack in so he can regress back to the mean, thereby drumming up some modicum of trade value even hold any water any longer? Have we passed that exit already?
I think the M’s are going to end up eating Wilson’s contract and just releasing him when Dustin Ackley comes up. Some other team will give him a chance for the league minimum, but I don’t think the M’s will ever get anything in trade.
I’ve been wondering for some time about what kind of roster moves we’re going to see when Gutierrez comes back from the DL and when Ackley is promoted. More than anyone, I would just like to see Jack Cust go away, but that just doesn’t seem likely. Instead, minus moving Jack Wilson, I fear for the likes of Luis Rodriguez.
I’m curious what it would take for the Mariners to move Wilson. Are they expecting an actual prospect, a low level minor leaguer, salary relief? It seems like that’s the key to getting anything done.
There a clearly teams for which Jack Wilson–from a purely on the field perspective–would be an upgrade. Any team that claims to be competing for the World Series yet still runs Yuniesky Betancourt out at SS on a daily basis is a glaring example. I’m sure there are many others, but I doubt any would want to spend much in cash or prospects.
When Gutierrez comes back the M’s will probably demote Michael Saunders to AAA to let him work on his swing some more. He’s had some flashes of goodness this year, but he still looks lost sometimes.
And I think the M’s will release Jack Wilson when Ackley comes up. Luis Rodriguez still has value to this team. Especially if the M’s can pull a deal to move Chone Figgins, Rodriguez is the guy who takes his place.
I don’t disagree with your assessment of Saunders; but if “looking lost” at the plate is the criteria for demotion, most of our starting nine should get sent down to AAA.
Sadly, most of our starting nine don’t have options. :/