Ackley Coming Up “Soon” – Maybe Tomorrow
Yesterday, Jack Zduriencik went on KJR with Mitch Levy and said that Dustin Ackley would be up “sooner than later”. Ackley then proceeded to hit a home run on the first pitch of the Rainiers game today and added a couple of singles as well, giving him another three hit day and continuing his torrid run through the PCL of late. This afternoon, I was told that soon could equal tomorrow, as the organization is apparently considering promoting Ackley to the roster after tonight’s game.
Now, I want to make sure this is all spelled out; It wasn’t Jack who told me this, so the information could be wrong. He also didn’t say that they were definitely calling him up – the way it was described to me is that they were going to talk about whether he should come up tomorrow. The Rainiers have an off-day to travel back from New Orleans, and so from a logistical standpoint, there are reasons to do it tomorrow. The team probably would prefer he debut at home to a warm reception, and may rather call him up while he’s scorching hot rather than waiting a few weeks and having a potentially cooled off Ackley make his debut with a little less confidence.
They might decide to just leave him down for a few more weeks in order to get past the presumed deadline for Super Two status, but I was told that wasn’t much of a consideration because most people in baseball don’t think the Super Two statute will still exist by the time Ackley would be eligible for it. It’s a part of the arbitration rules that no one really likes, and it could easily be abolished in the next collective bargaining agreement – the current version expires in December.
The team has already crossed the threshold of service time where Ackley is guaranteed to be under team control through 2017, so they would not lose him to free agency a year early by calling him up now. They do risk the possibility that he ends up qualifying for arbitration after 2013, which could escalate his salaries fairly quickly, but if they believe that Super Two status won’t exist in a few years, than there wouldn’t be any financial harm in calling him up now.
As for who would go away to make room for him, my guess would be Luis Rodriguez. Despite my fondness for the little guy, his line right now is just .173/.279/.308, and there’s a pretty good chance he’d make it through waivers. The M’s could probably flip-flop those two without having to give up any organizational depth or make a call on a Jack Wilson trade right away.
Obviously, we’ll find out tomorrow. I don’t know that the team will call Ackley up, but it’s apparently being talked about. It’s obvious that he’ll be up soon – the only question is whether soon is tomorrow or a few weeks from now.
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SSS explanations make sense, thanks.
Actually planning to go to the game tomorrow, so Ackley or Guti showing up would be a nice treat…
Cust is only 32, apparently healthy, and has a track record of being an very good hitter that was in full effect through the 2010 season.
Cust was DFA’d by the A’s last year, passed through waivers, and started the season in AAA. After being called back up his hitting wasn’t anywhere near the level of “very good.”
Cust is a stopgap DH who may regress to the mean and become a mediocre DH rather than a terrible one. My point was that I would rather give a young guy like Carp a shot. If he busts, he busts.
Cust’s 2010 line: .272/.395/.438
So what’s your definition of “good” then?
His improvement this month actually qualifies as “regression to the mean”, since his mean – even if you only look at 2010 – is better than his current 2011 numbers.
It’s hard to disagree with any word of this … and I don’t.
I think Carp will get a shot, but the questions are when, for how long and perhaps, “for which organization.” He may be gathering momentum for a callup both with Seattle and as a “part” in a trade in order to fill a position of need for the Mariners. Carp was one of the players that Jack traded for in that 12 player deal and wouldn’t it be a nice feather in his cap to say that he got 2 hitters (Guti and Carp) as well as a starting pitcher in that deal someday? Carp has the Z liked me at one time factor working for him.
He isn’t going to supplant Smoak ever, but he could certainly (given time) prove to be a more than adequate replacement for Cust and he can also field a position on occasion … and he is only 24 years old! Cust is a stopgap and he has passed his prime years, so his leash isn’t very long. A bit longer than it was((now that he has “heated up), but not very long IMO
The other thing about Cust is that he has a history of slow starts. His career wOBA in April is .207; in May it’s .262. And that understates things a bit, because last year he didn’t play in April, so his first month’s (May) wOBA was .317 and his second month’s (June) was .358 (and his July wOBA was .471). And that’s just last season, so it’s not like we’re going back to some much younger, pre-injury version of him.
Now, I want to emphasize: I’m still very much the Cust skeptic. Just watching him he seems to be hitting the ball as hard as he can without being able to drive it out of the park, and I don’t understand how that changes with warmer weather. He certainly wouldn’t be the first player of this kind we’ve seen plummet through Seattle on his way out of baseball right around age 32. But given Cust’s career history above, I’m willing to wait until June, or even the trade deadline, before I’m sticking a fork in him.
Now, I want to emphasize: I’m still very much the Cust skeptic. Just watching him he seems to be hitting the ball as hard as he can without being able to drive it out of the park, and I don’t understand how that changes with warmer weather
This is what I’m seeing. He can’t turn on a fastball and even when he makes good contact he doesn’t reach the wall.
I hope Cust turns it around and proves me wrong, but I don’t view this as anything more than a building year so I’m less willing to see young players blocked by a stopgap vet with no future with the franchise. Even if Cust improves to his 2010 level, if Carp keeps hitting in Tacoma I would rather give him a shot at DH even if its only to improve his stock as trade bait.
Cust was DFA’d by the A’s last year, passed through waivers, and started the season in AAA. After being called back up his hitting wasn’t anywhere near the level of “very good.”
Cust’s OPS+ last year: 128. His wOBA: 360. I don’t know exactly why he was DFA’d by Oakland, but if it was on the theory that he ceased to be a valuable hitter, they were not correct.
Cust is a stopgap DH who may regress to the mean and become a mediocre DH rather than a terrible one. My point was that I would rather give a young guy like Carp a shot. If he busts, he busts.
Cust has been an above average hitter for a DH in three of the last four seasons. I suppose he’s close enough to be average to be “mediocre” (if mediocrity is average, it’s underrated!). Carp’s current hitting in his third time around the AAA block doesn’t persuade me he’s not the pretty marginal prospect he’s widely understood to be; he’s more likely to be worse than Cust going forward in 2011 using the projection tools we have available.
That said, if your view is that rebuilding years such as this should involve no veteran stopgaps whatsoever, and all prospects no matter how marginal should be given major league roster spots and let the chips fall where they may, I suppose I can respect that, while disagreeing. Your beef, then, is with the Cust signing, but it’s dishonest to pretend that his slow start is something more than it is, because you didn’t like the signing anyway on philosophical grounds.
Wilhelmsen has some upside. To say Wilson has more upside is silly. I’d love to be proven wrong but Big Mike has AAAA written all over him.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see Wilson hit at this level but Wilhelmsen throws hard and if he ever figures out how to throw strikes consistently could be quite good.
I completely disagree. There is the fact he throws hard yes but it seems like that is a dime a dozen in the majors at this point and time. You can find new BP relief, and lets just say both pan out. I would much rather have a decent hitter than a good reliever on this team.
Also to me, Wilson is a much better athlete. I love baseball but I coach football and played a bit at the DI level. You don’t get recruited by Oklahoma to be an LB in a spread oriented conference if you aren’t athletic. I firmly believe he could play OF as long as he gets his positioning and trajectories correct. Plus he has one thing that we need and that is when he his he hits for power. I really think he has earned a chance so yeah I guess I’m a sucker for Big Mike but if this is a season for rebuilding lets see what we have with the big guy. If he sucks it up, we just discard him, no harm no foul.
That said, if your view is that rebuilding years such as this should involve no veteran stopgaps whatsoever, and all prospects no matter how marginal should be given major league roster spots and let the chips fall where they may,
Nice strawman argument.
I’m not sure how else to read your preference to forgo a player with an established level of performance above average for his position for a couple million, in favor of an extremely marginal prospect.
I’m not sure how else to read your preference to forgo a player with an established level of performance above average for his position for a couple million, in favor of an extremely marginal prospect.
Here’s a helpful hint: if you’re reframing an argument about a single player into an idiotic all or nothing statement, you’re engaging in a strawman argument.
If you think that Cust is an above average DH then knock yourself out making that argument, but don’t put words into my mouth.
I’m saying he’s been a better hitter than the average DH in the American league in three of the last four years, and an average DH in the 4th. There’s nothing particularly fancy or sophisticated about the analysis; I’m using standard measures to come to a banal and obvious conclusion. I’m not putting words in your mouth so much as granting you the courtesy of assuming you don’t deny simple facts.
You now seem to be arguing/implying that either none of this is actually true, or it somehow doesn’t count because a bad April (unlike all his other bad Aprils) somehow means that track record is now irrelevant. On top of that, you seem to be arguing that a very marginal prospect (our host recently said he’d *might* have a career as a backup first baseman on a bad team…) is worth playing over him, because the team will retain the rights to this lousy player next year. Or, you seem to be arguing that a BABIP/Power strike in his third tour of AAA, not accompanied by any positive change in his contact rate or BB rate (indeed, those are slightly worse), is somehow evidence that he’s a much better prospect than he was six weeks ago. Neither of these make a whole lot of sense.
If that’s not what you’re saying, feel free to say what you really are. Because it’s not at all clear at this point.
It seems odd to me that an above average DH would be DFA’d and clear waivers, not be offered a contract by the A’s, and have the bidding war for his services top out at 1 year, $2.5M. Clearly the league hasn’t looked at your statistical analysis. Perhaps they’ve been too busy actually watching him play and have seen the declining power and bat speed.