The Pitching Has Been Fantastic
My latest post for 710sports.com is now up, where I look at how it’s not really a big mystery why the Mariners are better this year. Short answer – it’s the pitching.
Earlier this week, Jayson Stark of ESPN came on this radio station and talked about how it’s hard to find many improvements on the roster beyond the addition of Michael Pineda. He finished by saying, “I don’t know how you explain what’s going on in Seattle beyond what the manager has done.”
I like Jayson Stark quite a bit, and think he’s fantastic at his job. But, in this instance, I have to disagree with him. Explaining the improvement over last year is actually pretty easy, and doesn’t require believing in any kind of unmeasurable magic brought by the mustached manager.
Read the rest at their blog. The podcast of our segment from this morning is also on that page if you missed it.
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So when do we get Mr. Cameron’s post for the position player upgrade? I hope that its still a relevant topic post-ASB, and I wish the post were sooner.
Texas Lost. That’s 5 in a row. Awesome.
SaintNumberFive-
Yep. We’re 1/2 a game out…
AND… Texas gets to go face a tough Atlanta Braves team tomorrow, in Atlanta, so we could be tied for 1st place in the AL West by the time Dustin Ackley plays his first major league game!
Go M’s!
(Optimism is oozing out my pores… It’s disgusting and exhilirating, all at the same time!)
MrZDevotee-
Philli is going to be a hard series, because they’re awesome.
BUT, we somehow avoided Cliff Lee AND Roy Halladay.
We have King Felix and Prince Pineda going, and with the excitement of Dustin coming up, I really think taking the series is a possibility..
And yes, optimism is running rampant through me as well. It’s been 10 damn years since our last playoff series. That is NOT OK..
Go M’s.
I think you are selling Wedge short, so far this season the Mariners are scoring 3.58 runs per game. Last season after 69 games the Mariners were scoring 3.39 run per game.
So I think you should credit the “Wedge effect” for .19 runs per game. Of course that could just be the difference between having Olivo instead of Johnson at catcher.
Actually you could argue that Wedge should be getting more out of the upgrades that have been made. Smoak > Kotchman, Olivo > Johnson/Moore, Kennedy > Lopez.
2010:
.236/.298/.339
wOBA .286
wRC+ 78
2011:
.228/.298/.342
wOBA .286
wRC+ 81 (Only higher because offense is down league-wide)
This is the same offense we saw all of last year.
Jedi mind tricks on the fans:
Wedge: “Liam, this is NOT the same offense I saw all of last year…”
Liam: “This is NOT the same offense I saw last year…”
Wedge” “Liam… THESE Mariners are exciting!”
Liam: “THESE Mariners are exciting…
—–
There, fixed it for you, Liam.
When are the rest of the Mariners going to take Brendan’s lead and grow an Eric Wedge mustache?
Maybe Wedge and staff should get some credit for the pitching being better.
Then the slogan for the playoff run could be: “Riding the ‘stache into October!”
Maybe Wedge and staff should get some credit for the pitching being better.
You’re right, we should totally credit the staff for having magical powers rather than noting that Erik Bedard and Michael Pineda just have more talent than Ian Snell and Ryan Rowland-Smith. It’s obviously the coaching.
Your right as usual, dont give Wedge and his staff credit for anything. However, if you would read the sentence again I wrote SOME. Dont be so quick to be an ass to someone that simply made an observation.
Idaho M,
I understand your comment and you might have wanted to be more specific (Fister and Pauley are good places to start). You might want to refrain from trying to call out or one up someone who makes this site what it is and provides all of us with amazing information that we wouldn’t normally have.
I wish Dave would post more, I love his insight in all things Mariners and baseball in general. But I feel that there are too many posts such as yours as of late and in conjunction with a busier work schedule for Dave, his posts and responses are fewer and fewer.
My original intent was not to call anyone out or to one up anyone. I too appreciate the well thought out analysis here. However it is my opinion that just as it would be wrong to give Wedge and his coaches all of the credit for the better pitching stats it would be also incorrect to give them none. A couple of observations:
1) Wedge was hired in the middle of October. Bedard was signed in December. I am sure Wedge was part of that decision to bring Bedard back. So he deserves credit for that.
2) Wedge is smart enough not to have pitchers as bad as Snell and Rowland-Smith on his staff.
3) In the post it mentioned that Pauley,Fister and Wright were pitching better. I am sure they didnt get better all on their own. Additionally Pineda is better than he was last year. I think that the coaches probably have helped that happen.
I guess I value the ability of a manager and coaching staff to be able to make the decisions that make a team better and also their ability to help make players better.It was simply a different way to look at it.
That is all a fair argument and well thoughtout. It is very much appreciated.
If you believe this, you should probably explain why you think Wedge and staff deserve the credit.
In my mind, that’s like giving Charlie Manuel credit for the awesome 2011 Phillies’ staff performance rather than the fact that they simply have a bunch of really good pitchers.
Bedard has been the big key. The way I see it Pineda has given us what we got out of Cliff Lee last year but Bedard makes it a solid starting 5 rather than having to throw a guy like Snell or Hyphen out there
Bedard has been nothing short of amazing. His last 13 starts are simply brilliant. The Ms are 8-1 in his last 9 starts.
I reeeeealy hope the Ms can resign him. Getting a AAA bat is just not worth the potential of Bedard continuing his performace for the rest of 2011 and beyond.
He is flat out getting better and better.
I think the Starbucks employees deserve some credit for the Bedard signing.
“Nobody recognized me at Starbucks here. No one ever does. It’s great,” Bedard said.
The problem is that you have no evidence for this. It’s not like Bedard was a free agent with some other team and choose Seattle because of Eric Wedge. He’s been with the team since 2008. When Bedard resigned this year, he said this:
“I was offered twice as much money last year to sign somewhere else, and I got offered a guaranteed deal this year by another team,” Bedard said from his Ottawa home. “I said, ‘Ooh that’s interesting,’ but I never pursued it. I told the Mariners before I went home last season, I wanted to come back.
“This may surprise some people, but I’m loyal. I want Seattle fans to see the guy they thought they’d traded for. There have been moments I’ve been myself, but they didn’t last long.”
So here we have some evidence as to why Erik Bedard is still in Seattle and it doesn’t have anything to do with Eric Wedge.
Might see it if they crafted pitches strategies for Pineda and the other pitchers that maximized their strengths.
Of course, that wouldn’t work if there wasn’t the raw talent there. As you say, the staff is smart enough not to push to have Snell and RRS on the team…..
So apparently Eric Wedge is smart enough not to have those terrible pitchers on his staff, but not so smart with Chone Figgins and Michael Saunders–the two worst hitters in the American League.
So what you are saying is that a manager has zero say in the creation of his team ? Where is your evidence on that ? I would be willing to wager that if Wedge has a strong opinion that he didnt want a player, JackZ would listen. I agree that Bedard didnt come back to Seattle because of Wedge. But I also say that Wedge could have prevented Bedard from coming back. Since Bedard signed with Seattle I would say Wedge wanted him back which has proved to be a good decision.
Wedge DOES however, absolutely, get credit for actually penciling in their names on the game card.
He should definitely get credit for that. They couldn’t possibly be pitching this well if they never actually went out to the mound.
(There… It’s a compromise– problem solved. Everybody shake hands now.)
Wedge is stuck with Figgens for now. What else are his options there ? I agree that Wedge went with Saunders for too long.
On the serious side, did the staff have anything to do with Fister’s new out pitch? Minor thing, but has surely made Fister a much better pitcher– although he can’t really get much credit for us being any better, since he’s had absolutely HORRID run support and has a crappy record as a result of the same.
So the one spot where the staff might have actually had an impact hasn’t resulted in more wins.
It definitely WOULD be interesting to find out what exactly changed in the bullpen when it comes to coaching (if anything)– ’cause it would make sense that THOSE results are more than simply coincidence, as to the odds of Jamey Wright, David Pauley, Aaron Laffey, and Brandon Morrow ALL pitching better than they (ever?) have before.
My own $.02….
I think pitching/hitting coaches as a whole get too much credit for when a player’s having a run of good pitching, or good hitting.
By the time they get to this level, a pro player’s probably had about 4-7 hitting or pitching coaches (let’s call it an average of six, for grins) in his professional career. For North American-raised arms, probably about 3 or 4 more instructors during their prep careers (junior high, high school, invitational league teams, etc.)
So, if you had even a standard minor-league career, you could have had as many as 10 different guys input into your craft- with 10 different philosophies- before you ever put on a major-league uniform.
Any pitcher who tries to follow the advice- 100%, at all times- of 10 different instructors in his past (as well as the guy in his ear now) is only going to amount to a very confused pitcher.
There’s certainly times when a pitching/hitting coach makes a direct, unmistakably effective change into a pitcher/hitter. But it’s not automatic gospel that because a David Pauley’s having an unbelievable year (he should seriously merit All-Star consideration from Ron Washington), it means that a pitching coach like Carl Willis is some kind of magician.
For all we know, something that David Pauley learned in high school (and decided to listen to again) is making the difference in his pitching this year.
I love it when Dave puts people in their place. Someone has to.
What worries me is that the level this staff was working at was clearly unsustainable and it is coming back down to earth. It is still far better than last year but I think we still are in for losses in bunches.
I give Wedge credit for not putting as many bad
pitchers into high leverage situations. If we play close games and don’t see Chris Ray because he “needs the work”, this is a good thing.
Other than that, Dave’s eating Stark’s lunch. The most remarkable fact for me is that he never mentioned Jason Vargas by name in his post and then I looked up Vargas’s numbers on Fangraphs and he’s basically exactly the same pitcher, prorated, as he was last year. So he can’t be the difference.
Jordan-
Don’t worry too much.
I love it when baseball puts us ALL in our place…
The M’s actually have the best record in the AL West over the past 10 games…
At, uh… Yeah:
4-6
As long as our opponents keep dropping games at a rate of 2-8 (the Rangers), or 3-7 (both the A’s and Angels), heck, we’re still in this thing!
In fact, if Texas doesn’t pull it’s head out of its ( censored ), somewhere between 83 and 85 wins is gonna take the AL West this year.
I was afraid of this myself, but after checking out the starting five’s ERA vs. FIP and xFIP a few days ago, it doesn’t really look due for all that much–if any–regression.
Vargas’ K rates are up by a decent clip while his BB rates are only mildly higher than the last two years. Fister’s K rates are way up, relatively speaking, and while his BB rates have naturally increased as well, his control remains strong. This doesn’t look like a fluke, either; his average fastball speed is up 2+ MPH over where it was last year. I believe his curve has become a legit strikeout pitch as well.
Bedard’s injuries make him a wild card, but his BB rates are the best of his career, and it’s not like he’s never pitched this well before.
Felix and Pineda are Felix and Pineda.
Can we count on all five of them to stay healthy all year? Odds are against it. However, based on their current performance, I don’t think any of them are due to become significantly worse pitchers than what we’ve seen so far. I’m still only expecting something in the neighborhood of 77-83 wins, but there are reasons to believe our starting five can keep us more competitive than I’m yet willing to hope.
Like Jamey Wright?
Pretty sure Jamey Wright was doing an outstanding job for the majority of the season so far. Then he started acting human again. Don’t fault the manager for using a pitcher who is performing well.
That’s a thing that’s been really surprising to me, Wedge’s bullpen management.
They went with a 6 man bullpen, don’t even use Gray en still get career best result out of their 5 guys.
Ditto what Greeff says. I don’t know if Wedge gets the credit for Fister adding 4-5 MPH to his fastball and developing a cutter. I don’t know if Wedge gets the credit for Bedard’s control coming back with his increased arm strength, post-surgery. I don’t know if Wedge gets the credit for Vargas’ improved control of his change, and improved knowledge of the hitters as he gains experience.
But maybe we should examine how Wedge has been able to extract maximum performance out of three utterly mediocre pitchers named Jamey Wright, Aaron Laffey, and David Pauley. Is it luck or is it skill? Because he seems to be putting them into games at mostly the right times, and yanking them at mostly the right times.
Let’s look also at his use of Chris Ray and Brandon League, both of whom suffered through some pretty abominable performances.
I know better than to jump to any conclusions or causal inferences around here. But these are all developments that at least deserve closer examination.
I honestly don’t see why UZR is saying Ichiro sucks this year, he doesn’t look any different from the past years and while he may be bailing out on some balls, he’s been known for that. I don’t see why UZR and DRS are saying he’s been a liability.
If you want to give credit to Wedge for the pitchers, then you need to hold him accountable for the failures of the hitters.
Ian Snell and Ryan Rowland-Smith could have the best coaching staff of all-time and not have the upside Pineda and a healthy Bedard do.
You can hand some unquantifiable credit to Wedge if you like, but I’ll lean towards the true talent levels of the replacements being higher.
Oh, yeah….talent level is the major reason why.
But there are things to be said for getting the heck out of the way and allowing the natural talent go through the inevitable performance variation and not get TOO caught up in the results of the moment.
To my eyes, it appears he’s not getting to some fly balls he would’ve gotten to in past years.
Totally subjective, I realize. My only “defense” is I had noticed this before I knew his UZR was bad. But in the end, I know the whole point of developing metrics like UZR is to get away from subjective fan-based evaluation – the sort of thing that convinces fans that Jeter has always been a defensive wizard. 😀
Idaho made a very conservative statement, which spurred meaningful blog dialog. A “Maybe…some” assertion is very difficult to refute, even with adequate modeling/SS, which isn’t the case here, and the snarky responses are undeserved.