Minor League Wrap (6/13-20/11)
In lieu of a thematic intro, I’m talking about what each team would need to do to make the playoffs in the second half following their respective write-ups. Still, some important things to note: Peoria M’s start play this evening, Pulaski goes tomorrow, Everett’s first homestand starts on Wednesday (I’ll start covering them in earnest next week), and all the full seasons except Tacoma are on all-star break.
To the jump!
Tacoma Rainiers (4-3 this week, 33-38 overall)
The Week in Review:
Monday, June 13th 2011
Tacoma 8, Fresno 3 (SF – 9)
W: Robertson (1-2, 6.06) L: Mathis (0-4, 3.60)
Tuesday, June 14th 2011
Tacoma 6, Fresno 2 (SF – 10)
W: Seddon (4-3, 5.28) L: Runzler (0-1, 2.16)
Wednesday, June 15th 2011
Tacoma 11, Fresno 4 (SF – 11)
W: Castro (5-2, 3.47) L: Loux (3-8, 3.91) S: Patterson (1)
Thursday, June 16th 2011
Tacoma 4, Fresno 8 (SF – 10)
W: Zito (1-0, 6.00) L: Haeger (1-2, 10.27) S: Otero (1)
Friday, June 17th 2011
Salt Lake 4 (ANA – 11), Tacoma 3
W: Bay (4-3, 4.30) L: Cortes (1-2, 5.40) S: Kohn (7)
Saturday, June 18th 2011
Salt Lake 2 (ANA – 12), Tacoma 6
W: Jimenez (4-2, 4.06) L: Junge (3-5, 4.53) S: Bautista (2)
Sunday, June 19th 2011
Salt Lake3 (ANA – 11), Tacoma 2
W: Chaffee (1-0, 1.80) L: Seddon (4-4, 5.15) S: Jepsen (3)
Hitter of the Week:
RF Mike Wilson, R/R, 6/29/1983
6 G, 21 AB, 6 R, 6 H, 3 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, SB, 4/4 K/BB, HBP, .286/.407/.714
Now that Wilson is on the 40-man, I don’t really have any qualms about saying he should be used if it seems appropriate. Wilson has kept slugging on his return tour of Tacoma, and has been walking a little more than he did previously, particularly this week. The issue is that it has to make sense to have him up here. With Halman already up, hitting, and capable in center, and the insistence on the platoons that keep Carp and Peguero active and sometimes looking like ballplayers, I don’t know that I see much place for Wilson on this roster. There’s DH, but the reports are currently that Cust is doing batting practice work and then there’s Adam Kennedy to consider. So, in a nutshell, Tacoma keeps losing all their productive hitters and sometimes gets one back, and the Mariners are busy trying to figure out how to work with all the guys they do have around. Fun.
In the Midst of a Power Outage Mention:
OF/1B Johan Limonta, L/L, 8/4/1983
7 G, 23 AB, 2 R, 9 H, 2B, 4 RBI, 3/4 K/BB, .391/.481/.435
Pitcher of the Week:
LHP Chris Seddon, 10/13/1983
1-1, 2 GS, 3.21 ERA in 14.0 IP, 10 H, 5 R, 10/3 K/BB, 9/11 G/F, WP
After a bit of a lull, it’s starting to look like starting pitching is really coming back for the Rainiers, which is good. Seddon got seven innings deep in both his starts this week, and has done so three times in a row now (despite walking five in the first of those). Both he and Beavan are now at the back end of the top ten in innings pitched, with a chance to move higher with the way that they’ve been pitching. Seddon is also climbing in strikeouts, with a K/9 of 8.0 for June after sitting at 6.2 last month. The walks, in spite of that one outing I mentioned, are also dropping, so good news all around.
Starting Again Mention:
LHP Fabio Castro, 1/20/1985
1-0, GS, 0.00 ERA in 5.0 IP, H, R (0 ER), 2/2 K/BB, 6/2 G/F
Continuing Strong June Mention:
RHP Blake Beavan, 1/17/1989
0-0, GS, 3.00 ERA in 6.0 IP, 6 H (HR), 2 R, 5/1 K/BB, 4/4 G/F
From The Training Room:
Monday had LHP Luke French go on the temporarily inactive list while RHP Denny Bautista came off the same. This explains why my projected rotation for the Rainiers was all messed up for a while… UT Leury Bonilla was activated from the DL a few days later, and then after that the Ackley era in Seattle began while IF Luis Rodriguez was optioned to Tacoma. We will always remember those few significant at-bats he had… Shortly after that, Michael Saunders went temporarily inactive. I hope it has nothing to do with the Canucks losing to the Bruins.
Strange Happenings:
As I mentioned with Wilson, evaluating the Rainiers’ playoff odds is a little more difficult with the I-5 shuttle going on, and the PCL operates on a full-season playoff scheme instead of half-seasons like the other affiliates, which means that they have to make up the ground they’ve lost to Reno before anything else happens. Pitching seems to be improving on the whole, Haeger’s inconsistencies and Robertson’s rust aside, but offense needs to come from somewhere and I’m not convinced that it can all come from Liddi, Bard, Langerhans, and whichever other outfielder is not currently in Seattle. The power output of Magnini has been off with his various injuries, Limonta, as addressed above, is good for hitting but not always power hitting, and the middle infield without Ackley is unlikely to produce much. If Tui rebounded, that would be something, but weird uptick in triples aside, this seems to be his worst triple-A season, which is not good. Ks are up, walks are down, and power isn’t balancing it out. Of course, as players are called up from triple-A, you also have more of a chance of bringing in random free agents that might produce, so it’s even harder to tell what might happen on that front. Maybe something happens. Maybe not… Thursday evening, the Rainiers lost to Barry Zito. They also scored four runs off Barry Zito. I don’t know how to take this… Speaking of not knowing how to take certain things, Ian Snell was assigned to Albuquerque, one of the toughest parks to pitch in for the PCL.
Jackson Generals (1-6 this week, 38-32 overall)
The Week in Review:
Monday, June 13th 2011
Jackson 0, Huntsville 2 (MIL + 2)
W: Scarpetta (3-3, 4.12) L: Vasquez (4-5, 3.70) S: Henderson (3)
Tuesday, June 14th 2011
Off day
Wednesday, June 15th 2011
Carolina 7 (CIN – 26), Jackson 0
W: Klinker (3-4, 3.60) L: Ramirez (6-4, 5.03)
Thursday, June 16th 2011
Carolina 9 (CIN – 25), Jackson 3
W: McCulloch (2-3, 5.31) L: Grube (4-2, 3.35)
Friday, June 17th 2011
Carolina 0 (CIN – 26), Jackson 1 (seven innings)
W: Carraway (5-0, 2.41) L: Boxberger (0-2, 1.48)
Saturday, June 18th 2011
Carolina 5 (CIN – 25), Jackson 1 (seven innings)
W: Chapman (1-1, 6.14) L: Wilhelmsen (2-2, 5.76)
Carolina 8 (CIN – 24), Jackson 4 (seven innings)
W: Gustafson (2-6, 5.37) L: Vasquez (4-6, 4.02)
Sunday, June 19th 2011
All-star break
Hitter of the Week:
2B Kyle Seager, L/R, 11/3/1987
6 G, 21 AB, R, 8 H, 4 2B, 3B, RBI, 1/2 K/BB, .381/.435/.667
This week, the Generals offense switched from Triunfel and eight other guys to Seager and eight other guys, which certainly contributed to Jackson taking one game in a five-game series against the worst team in their division. The same weirdness applied as well: one run and one RBI for all those times reaching base and more than half his hits going for extras. It seems unreal. Since we haven’t checked in with Seager in a little while, I want to point something out that I like: 12/6, 16/12, 10/8. Those are Seager’s K/BBs running from April through June. Like last year, he’s only getting better as the year goes on in that department. The only weird thing is that he’s yet to hit a home run this month, but I suppose that too will come in time.
Best of the Available Options Mention:
3B/RF Nate Tenbrink, L/R, 12/21/1986
6 G, 19 AB, R, 3 H, 2B, HR, RBI, SB, 4/2 K/BB, .158/.238/.368
Pitcher of the Week:
RHP Andrew Carraway, 9/4/1986
1-0, GS, 0.00 ERA in 7.0 IP, H, 6/0 K/BB, 6/2 G/F
Easy. Carraway notched the first “complete game” of his career on Friday, though to be entirely fair, it was a seven-inning stint following the completion of Thursday’s game, which was suspended in the fourth. Still, it’s not hard to imagine that he might have been able to go the whole nine if it came to it. After a third inning single, he retired the last fourteen batters in a row. Carraway threw 55 of 79 pitches for strikes, just under 70%. tRA likes his number a lot better starting than relieving too: at 2.65, he’s a full run better than the next guy, Jarrett Grube. Carraway and Grube will both be in the Southern League All-Star Game later in the week.
Felix’s Brother Mention:
RHP Moises Hernandez, 3/18/1984
0-0, G, 0.00 ERA in 4.0 IP, 2 H, 4/1 K/BB, 4/1 G/F, WP
From the Training Room:
For as busy as the other levels were, there wasn’t much going for Jackson this week. Angel Salome was added to the roster and immediately put on the DL. I don’t know if he’ll be catching or trying to play the outfield.
Strange Happenings:
Heading into the all-star break at a number of levels, it seems like an appropriate time to establish some perspective on the season thus far. The Generals as a team are batting .260/.333/.416, their .748 OPS ranking fifth in the league. They do come in second for home runs and slugging at sixty and .416 respectively, but they’re well behind the seventy-six and .474 that state rival Tennessee is putting up. Tennesse also manages to outpitch the Generals with a league-leading ERA (3.59, despite two shutouts, the second fewest in the league, against Jackson’s 3.84). The Generals staff itself seems to survive by limiting walks and getting groundballs, in spite of striking out the second-fewest. In order to really contend for the second half title, the Generals would likely need to see improvements from four key players as I see it: Rich Poythress, Johermyn Chavez, Erasmo Ramirez, and Tom Wilhelmsen. Poythress’ peripherals have been bad for a couple of months now (that’s why Tenbrink got a pass), as have those of Chavez, while Ramirez has struggled his last few outings and Wilhelmsen is still trying to get back to what made him so successful last season. This isn’t really a team that looks like it’s capable of winning in any one area over another and would be better off aiming to be a good all-around team… Anthony Vasquez had another 7+ IP, <4 R outing on Monday, a complete game loss, but his outing over the weekend was nasty… Haveman, Seager, and Poythress all had triples on Sunday. Weird.
High Desert Mavericks (2-5 this week, 32-38 overall)
The Week in Review:
Monday, June 13th 2011
High Desert 1, Stockton 3 (OAK 0)
W: Gilliam (6-4, 4.55) L: Sorce (5-4, 4.32) S: Carignan (1)
Tuesday, June 14th 2011
High Desert 3, Stockton 6 (OAK + 1)
W: Lansford (3-3, 1.55) L: Cooper (4-1, 5.20) S: Guzman (9)
Wednesday, June 15th 2011
High Desert 1, Stockton 5 (OAK + 2)
W: Straily (4-5, 4.26) L: Snow (0-1, 7.20)
Thursday, June 16th 2011
High Desert 1, Lake Elsinore 0 (SD – 7)
W: Jimenez (1-0, 5.35) L: Pease (0-5, 2.52) S: Kesler (5)
Friday, June 17th 2011
High Desert 0, Lake Elsinore 11 (SD – 6)
W: Hernandez (5-0, 2.70) L: Robles (0-1, 189.00) S: Lara (1)
Saturday, June 18th 2011
High Desert 5, Lake Elsinore 11 (SD – 5)
W: Beard (3-2, 6.42) L: Cooper (4-2, 5.02)
Sunday, June 19th 2011
High Desert 9, Lake Elsinore 6 (SD – 6) (eleven innings)
W: Cooper (5-2, 4.61) L: Pease (0-6, 2.63) S: Hudson (2)
Hitter of the Week:
C Trevor Coleman, S/R, 1/19/1988
6 G, 16 AB, 2 R, 5 H, 2B, RBI, 4/3 K/BB, .313/.421/.375
Road trips are what I sort of look on as opportunities to get something closer to a baseline performance level for a Mavericks team. Stockton and Lake Elsinore are opposite extremes as far as park factor goes, but it’s information nonetheless, and so when I see something like Franklin going 7-for-27 (true story, though there were no walks and only one double), it’s meaningful even on a smaller scale. Coleman, I can’t so easily apply that to because he has been just so off and on all season, and from the looks of it (limited sample), a lot better swinging left-handed than right, as he’s .272/.353/.419 vs. right-handers and .176/.349/.235 against southpaws, walks being his main source of offense. One positive note is that he’s .354/.415/.479 thus far in June and really seems to be improving from one month to the next, at least so far. His eye slipped a little bit this month, but considering it was even for May, that’s not so much to complain about.
All-Star Mention:
3B/LF/1B/DH Vinnie Catricala, R/R, 10/31/1988
7 G, 26 AB, 2 R, 5 H, 3 2B, 6 RBI, SB, CS, 6/3 K/BB, HBP, .192/.300/.307
Pitcher of the Week:
LHP Anthony Fernandez, 6/8/1990
0-0, GS, 3.60 ERA in 5.0 IP, 5 H (HR), 2 R, 7/1 K/BB, 6/2 G/F
Promotions or demotions in the minor leagues are often decided outside of the individual’s performance in any one game. In some cases, like Fernandez’, they’re decided almost in spite of it. I don’t really have much of an issue with this because I thought Fernandez’ promotion was too aggressive in the first place, but it still seems kind of funny. Fernandez retired six in a row at one point in this, then gave up a home run, followed by a single, a K and a double play. Even this one wasn’t all that it could have been, as he walked one to open the sixth and Cooper scored it. I look forward to seeing what he can do for Clinton the rest of the year, as it seems like a place he could really shine.
Could Use More Ks Mention:
LHP Jimmy Gillheeney, 11/8/1987
0-0, GS, 3.60 ERA in 5.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 3/0 K/BB, 2/5 G/F, PO
Back to 6+ Innings, Still Needs Better Command Mention:
RHP Chris Sorce, 10/28/1987
0-1, 2 GS, 3.00 ERA in 12.0 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 5/4 K/BB, 9/16 G/F, WP, BK
From the Training Room:
LHP Mauricio Robles was officially optioned on Monday, which ended up putting RHP Brandon Maurer on the DL the next day, which upsets me greatly, more than Robles’ performance on Friday, which I will not address at all… Later in the week, after what was probably his best start at the level, the team sent LHP Anthony Fernandez to Clinton and brought in RHP Forrest Snow.
Strange Happenings:
I’d like to have a clearer picture of the Mavericks’ playoff chances, but I don’t because I know how rough pitching is for the league. Gillheeney could rebound, Maurer could come off the DL, and Robles could come back to form along with Medina, or things could go horribly wrong. At the very least, Pryor and Kahn seem to be making more steps forward than back. As for the offense, Cat is going to keep hitting and Raben probably will too, but it would be nice if Franklin and Martinez would improve their road stats and Jones and Almonte pulled out of their June Swoon (Cerione has been great, but only in limited time). Considering that the Mavs were close to the division lead for a while, that may be as much as is needed to push them over the top… Since we’re also going into an all-star break for the Cal League, you may as well look at the Cal vs. Carolina rosters. Congratulations to RHP Chris Sorce, 3B Mario Martinez, and DH Vinnie Catricala on making the team… The catcher, Trevor Coleman, was ejected from Sunday’s game in the fourth inning… Daniel Cooper, a reliever, pitched 7.2 innings this week. I DON’T GET IT. He’s averaged two and two-thirds innings per outing this month… James Jones got a profile on MiLB.com, which is lovely, and would be better if he were hitting.
Clinton Lumberkings (3-3 this week, 24-46 overall)
The Week in Review:
Monday, June 13th 2011
Off day
Tuesday, June 14th 2011
Quad Cities 5 (STL + 8), Clinton 0
W: Martinez (3-2, 2.48) L: Mieses (1-8, 6.03)
Wednesday, June 15th 2011
Quad Cities 9 (STL + 9), Clinton 5
W: Wright (5-1, 1.26) L: Nava (1-2, 3.75)
Thursday, June 16th 2011
Quad Cities 1 (STL + 8), Clinton 5
W: Paxton (3-3, 2.70) L: Rosenthal (3-7, 3.63) S: Burgoon (7)
Friday, June 17th 2011
Clinton 0, Kane County 1 (KC – 11)
W: Santiago (5-6, 3.03) L: Walker (2-3, 2.40) S: Byrne (4)
Saturday, June 18th 2011
Clinton 4, Kane County 2 (KC – 12)
W: Sena (4-3, 3.90) L: Ventura (1-2, 4.40) S: Arias (1)
Sunday, June 19th 2011
Clinton 1, Kane County 0 (KC – 13)
W: Fernandez (2-2, 4.17) L: Adam (2-3, 4.26) S: Burgoon (8)
Hitter of the Week:
3B Matt Browning, R/R, 1/7/1988
5 G, 19 AB, R, 6 H, 2 2B, HR, 4 RBI, SB, 1/0 K/BB, .316/.316/.579
It was the pitching, not the hitting, that was carrying the Lumberkings this week. As a case in point, their lead hitter didn’t walk a single time and was the only guy in the entire lineup to have more than one extra-base hit this week. I’m not making that up. Anyway, Browning was added in late May after a rather brief stint in High Desert. Last year for Pulaski, he was one of their better hitters, batting .330/.438/.509 in thirty-four games, but this season it’s been much harder for him to get going and this has the first time he’s hit his way onto the radar. For example, with nearly a hundred at-bats in the league, this week doubled his season home run output and included 40% of his doubles.
Hitting, but Weak Peripherals Mention:
LF/1B Mickey Wiswall, L/R, 11/25/1988
6 G, 24 AB, 3 R, 7 H, 2B, 5/1 K/BB, .292/.320/.333
Pitcher of the Week:
RHP Taijuan Walker, 8/13/1992
0-1, GS, ERA in 7.0 IP, 2 H, R, 11/2 K/BB, 6/2 G/F, 2 WP
Pitching proveded me with an embarassment of riches near the end of the week. in the end, I decided Walker was the guy because he was younger, pitched longer, and allowed fewer hits even though Pax struck out more. Although, I have to say this whole thing where they’re pitching back to back now is reminding me of Cliff Lee and Felix trying to one-up each other last season. Thanks to a pickoff, Paxton retired the first seven in a row, then Walker retired fourteen in a row in his game, just not to start things. Paxton struck out five in a row, Walker struck out the side in the second and got two of three in consecutive innings later. I don’t know if they’re actively thinking about it as such, but I’m certainly enjoying watching it with that narrative applied.
Lefty Punchouts Mention:
LHP James Paxton, 11/6/1988
1-0, GS, ERA in 6.1 IP, 4 H, R, 13/2 K/BB, 5/2 G/F, PO
I Can’t Name a Guy Pitcher of the Week at Two Levels Anyway Mention:
LHP Anthony Fernandez, 6/8/1990
1-0, GS, 0.00 ERA in 7.0 IP, 4 H, 5/0 K/BB, 10/2 G/F
From the Training Room:
Busy, busy, busy. RHP George Mieses went on the DL, which brought RHP Tyler Blandford off it, though not to start. OF Julio Morban was activated and OF Jabari Blash sent to Everett, C Steve Baron hit the DL bringing in C Billy Marcoe from Everett, and Snow and Fernandez were exchanged. This was all Wednesday… Later in the week, IF Shaver Hansen came off the DL and UT Jorge Agudelo was moved to Everett.
Strange Happenings:
I can’t very seriously talk about Clinton’s chances in the second half because for a long portion of the first half, they had the worst record in affiliated ball. So many things ended up going wrong for them, from Littlewood and Morla getting demoted to Rivers not being able to hit as well as hoped, to Morban and Mieses performing below their true levels of talent. Losing Maurer, and more recently Snow probably didn’t help things, but with Walker, Paxton, and Fernandez around, and some hope for Sena who recently pitched seven innings, the team has a chance to lead with pitching. It’s just a matter of having sufficient hitting, and I don’t know where that comes from, save the scattered good weeks from Morris, Romero, Sams, and Wiswall. I think that there’s a good chance that the team could get some draft talent that would help them out. A Brad Miller type would make their middle infield a lot more interesting, as would a Steve Proscia at third or a John Hicks behind the plate. That’s a little aggressive though, so it might happen, it might not. Even if it does, you’d have to maneuver to figure out who’s in and who’s out. There’s a chance for this team, it’s just not an extraordinary one… John Sickels thinks Taijuan Walker is neat.
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42 Responses to “Minor League Wrap (6/13-20/11)”
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Informative as always, thanks Jay. Raben and Catricala are still encouraging, Shaffer cooled down a bit. Paxton and Walker offer hope for the future. See Hultzen looked good at the CWS. I hope they get him signed.
Is Carlos Triunfel pretty much written off at this point?
Have their been any reports on the return of Tony Butler? After all the arm troubles how is the velo?
I sure hope not, and I don’t believe so either. He’s been one of my favorite prospects for a long time, and I hope he pans out over time. He’s still young.
I think the consensus this year is that his performance has been at least somewhat encouraging? Jay I’d like to hear your thoughts on him as well.
Its good to see Seager continuing to perform.
Also, a few days ago on the baseball america prospect hot sheet this litte nugget was dropped…
“Bill Mitchell has a report today on a Mariners prospect who was throwing up to 100 mph in spring training and will start in the short-season Northwest League”
Any idea on who is the above mentioned prospect?
Vincente Campos?
Triunfel is looking like he did before the broken leg, but with a bit more power. The plus is that he’s showing that bit more power outside of the Cal League. Really, Triunfel’s problems were always going to be whether he develops any kind of power and whether he sticks at short stop. He’s got the high contact rate and bat speed to post high averages. Basically he’s got lots of tools but doesn’t quite have all the skills to put it together.
Since he’s always been highly thought of, partly because of “age related to league” pandering, I think some are just silently waiting for him to do something amazing.
Jay,
With Taijuan Walkers age and ceiling, would you consider him a top 50 prospect overall at this point? I saw a top 50 ranking recently for midseason put him at #37. Even after Hultzen signs, I’d have a hard time putting Hultzen ahead of Walker considering age and pure stuff. I think he is our #1 prospect right now, thoughts Jay?
I was just talking him up last week? He’s on pace for his best offensive season?
Haven’t heard anything, but he sure did a number on the Dust Devils on Saturday.
I’ve talked about it with a few people recently, and I think that I would probably rank Hultzen first still for the combination of stuff and polish, but Walker would be right there behind him at #2, and is climbing up the national charts as we speak. I’d probably slot Paxton somewhere later because his command is still kind of bad sometimes and he could stand to be pitching at a higher level given his age.
I’ve gotten to see Paxton’s last two starts…first one wasn’t too good, but the last was awesome…he was dealing…haven’t seen Walker pitch yet, but I got his autograph at meet the team day…nice kid…I’m going to his next home start for sure…
Heading to the AS Fanfest in a couple hours to get Paxton to sign some stuff and then to watch the Home-Run Derby/Hitting Contest…also checking out the game tomorrow…Hopefully Pax gets to pitch…
Jay,
I was wondering how you think the Mariners top 5 or so prospects is shaping up right now with all the call-ups and such.
Also, how would you rank the Mariners system as compared to the rest of MLB? To me, we seem kind of depleted of great talent.
With Ackley / Pineda / Franklin being the “big three” at the beginning of the season, losing two of those will definitely knock our ranking down a peg. Depends on whose ranking you’re talking about, though. I saw one ranking had us 18th overall with our farm, which I didn’t agree with, but whatever.
Right now, and this is before anybody else signs, I’d probably go:
1. Walker
2. Franklin
3. Paxton
4. Catricala
5. Seager
Or something like that. The drop off after Paxton is pretty huge and you could probably stuff about six or so names at fourth place and beyond. Note that I am counting guys like Halman, Peguero, and Ackley as exhausting their rookie eligibility sometime before the end of this season.
I don’t think that the M’s are ever going to have what prospecting types would consider to be a great system just because we don’t have enough players down there together all at once. What we will have is what is regarded as a great, young team at the major league level.
I think any top five would have to include Hultzen (assuming he signs), Paxton and Walker. That much is a given. It’s harder to say for hitters because I want to include Nick Franklin, but hate his home/road splits this season. Seager has continued to hit, but Brad Miller has a similar offensive profile and seems likely to stick at short. And then there’s Liddi, who has made strides on defense and is still hitting, but is also striking out more than makes me comfortable. That’s seven names for five spots, I guess.
I’m leaving out Pimentel, Castillo, E. Peguero, etc at this point because I’d like to see more of them before trying to make an evaluation. I like what I’ve heard about all of them, it’s just that I kind of expected at least one to show up in Everett.
You know what really irks me? The fact that if we didn’t sign Josh Fields after Bavasi picked him, in the 2009 draft we could have take Kyle Gibson, or Mike Trout with the 21st overall pick.
I was at this game and Butler was indeed mowing them down. Can’t remember exactly now, but I seem to recall him sitting around 91-92. He had a no hitter through 5+ innings.
Also of note was Jabari Blash hit a monsterous home run. The wind was blowing out pretty well, but he still crushed it.
I would agree that the one decision I wish the new FO would have done differently was sign Fields.
On the other hand, cherry picking the prospect the M’s could have had instead is unfair to say the least.
I only picked those two because they were notable names and they went in the mid twenties. Most other guys around that area are no slouches either.
Might I point out the Angels didn’t take him with their first pick in the first round either. They took Randal Grichuck. If the Angels didn’t have another pick in the first round, he’d have gone to someone else later. Maybe even down to us at 27 (where we chose Franklin).
Things happened the way they happened because that’s the way they happened. No sense in making a big deal of it. We only care because Mike Trout has become an arguable choice for the #1 prospect in baseball. If he floundered, none of us would give a shit.
Also that, given that we drafted Baron thinking that he would cost less money, there’s no telling if we’d draft Trout or Franklin if we had the extra pick.
I understand that. I am not saying we should have gotten any of those guys, I am just saying we should have had the OPPORTUNITY to take one of those guys. Quite frankly, anyone from the 20th pick to the end of the round would have been better than Fields.
I can’t imagine any possible reason for Catricala to be ahead of Triunfel.
Franklin. What could mean a road line of .207/.279/.302 in the hitters Paradise League, just home sickness ?
That is impossible to say. If we’d have not signed Fields and received a compensation pick, that pick would have not been protected. We would have to have picked someone who would have been signable. Of the guys who were left at the end of the first round, quite a few fell that far due to signability concerns. That includes Trout.
Not only that, but the M’s were concerned about being able to sign the three first rounders they already had. As Jay mentioned, the idea behind Steve Baron was that they could sign him for cheap in the supplemental round (it didn’t happen). Add in a fourth, like Trout and the bonus he got (1.21 mil), and they might not have drafted even Franklin (1.28 mil bonus).
Like I said, there’s several guys you could slot there if you want. In this case, I actually trust Catricala’s bat. There’s no reason to assume it’s just a High Desert mirage. Triunfel still has question marks about everything, even if his season so far has helped alleviate some of them.
The point is that the drop off after the top three is noticeable. Naturally, if Hultzen signs, things look different.
Not sure it means anything really. Believe it or not, that line looks better now than it did last month.
I had never thought about the signabilty issues. Thanks. Still throigh, I don’t think Fields could have flopped harder
I’m confused and sure I missed something. Why is Robles playing for High Desert after having ended up last season at Tacoma and looking pretty good there? Was he on the DL?
Yes, he just came off the DL.
I’m much more concerned about Franklin’s home/road splits but should he be getting close decision of giving up the switch hitting gig?
Wow, Robles ERA sitting at a solid 189.00.
I think that was over just one appearance 😉
Last year, he said those splits were the product of not facing enough southpaws. This year, I don’t know, but consider that his RH numbers were .149/.208/.246 last year and they’re .247/.313/.301 now. The isolated power got worse, but he may not have to give it up just yet.
Hmmm. Catricala is a year older and doing it at one level lower. You really don’t think Triunfel could put up those numbers next year at High Desert?
I find that unlikely.
Especially when you factor the defensive value I think Triunfel is still far, far above Catricala. But then I don’t think the Cat is even a top 10 guy since he has basically no defensive value.
For what it’s worth, here’s my top 10 (not counting any 2011 draftees):
1) Walker
2) Franklin
3) Paxton
4) Triunfel
5) Pimentel (maybe high, but the reports on him are just awesome)
6) Seagar
7) Liddi
8 ) Cortes
9) Littlewood (not ready to give up on him as a high caliber prospect, but if he struggles in Everett that will change)
10) Brandon Maurer (assuming he’s not seriously hurt)
I just can’t get excited about a 22 year old bat only guy in High A. I understand why other’s feel differently, but I think Cat has at least as low of a floor as Triunfel does, and nowhere near as high of a ceiling.
I totally spaced on Blake Beavan. I’d put him at 8, and move the last three down a spot each.
Meanwhile, three exciting prospects makes their pro debuts tonight. Shipers took the bump for Everett and has 2 k’s through the first inning. In Arizona, Martin Esteillon Peguero got hbp and stole a base in his first PA and Phillips Castillo doubled and scored in his.
Fun night to prospect watch.
Hypotheticals aren’t good analysis. What I would say is that one of Triunfel’s brightest points has always been his age relative to that of the average age of the league he’s played in. Also, his tools. But his skills haven’t quite developed as much as we would have liked for someone now on his fourth full year of professional ball while losing one development year due to injury. There are some folks who are critical of his not showing vast improvements in the learned skill areas. I still have faith in him, but he’s gotta start demonstrating that he’s not surviving solely on tools. The two biggest question marks for Triunfel are “can he hit” and “where will he play?”.
As for Vinnie, this is his third full season and he has shown that he can hit and with at least a bit of power. Obviously this season is driven heavily by an unsustainable ball in play average, but even his previous two seasons were solid. I don’t see a reason to doubt that he can hit. His only question is where he’ll play. He’s most likely destined for corner infield or designated hitter duties.
Triunfel’s overall value is best if he stays at short stop. There’s a lot of opinions that he wont be able to do that long term. If he ends up at third or second base, his bat is going to have to be better than it has been to justify that position. Vinnie’s bat already works where he is.
I agree with you that, if these players reach their peak potential, Triunfel has more value than Catricala. I just don’t see that happening for Carlos right now.
Again, all this is just shooting the shit. I’m not doing any serious prospect analysis with putting Vinnie 4th and Seager 5th. This is especially true when / if more of our draft picks sign. Vinnie doesn’t actually represent, I think, the fourth best prospect in our system. Like I said, there’s about six names I would interchange in that 4 to 10 area and it wouldn’t really matter to me which way they went.
I need to see more from Pimentel. Same with guys like Littlewood, Campos, and E. Peguero. I think I learn more on the guys who are closer to the majors than the ones who are years off.
Forgot about Cortes. So there’s now 7 names that I would shuffle around 4 to 11.
Technically speaking they all have the same “floor”, which is “washed out / flame out / bust”. But, yes, Triunfel has a higher ceiling than Catricala.
Just got home from the MWL Home Run Derby…nothing much to report on the sabermetric front as the only Mariner there was James Paxton. But even though he didn’t pitch, he was still there.
Before the game he was great, posing for photos for everone.
Part of the Fanfest was a “Club Crawl” sponsored by our home team where the players, coaches, and fans have fun together at local bars.
Needless to say I met up with James at one of the stops and we talked Mariners baseball and had a good time.
He was the ultimate pro, while pumpimg up his teammate Walker, and is excited to be a Mariner…
Needless to say, I’m the biggest Pax fan here…
He was awesome and I hope that he gets to pitch tomorrow…
Raben, Shaffer and Carraway are deserving of some consideration. Personally I’d take Cat the Bat over Triunfel at this point and feel Franklin might be a bit overrated with his performance so far this season.
Jay,
Reading through your comments, I think I already know the answer … but could you give your thoughts on Vincent Catricala and whether or not you believe we could see him at the big league level someday?
I’ve studied minor league stats for over 20 years … and seen many guys who’ve made it and many who’ve become Crash Davis. While BA, HR, 2B’s, etc are nice indicators of possible future ML success that get many fans excited … the one ratio that I personally pay attention to most is SO/BB ratio. Besides BA, I’ve personally found a minor league hitter’s SO/BB ratio to be an excellent indicator as to whether or not he has the stuff to make it. That’s why in looking at Dustin Ackley (55 BB to 38 SO), I knew he was going to be an exceptional major league hitter.
When I look at Catricala’s SO/BB ratio (41 SO to 29 BB), it doesn’t appear too shabby to me. Say what you want about him being 22 at High Desert … the facts are that Edgar Martinez was playing at about that same level at age 22 … and didn’t hit AAA Calgary until he was 24 (albeit his SO to BB rates were off the charts). I completely grant all the stuff about High Desert being a hitter’s league and that the numbers can be a bit inflated … but BA’s that high are indicative of a good hitting eye/strike zone judgment. And while I don’t see Catricala as another Edgar by any means, it seems to me there is a decent chance that this guy can make it to the bigs and to be a fairly productive offensive player. If this guy ends up able to hold down a job at 3B, then I personally see no reason that can’t happen. Thoughts on any of that?
With 3B being such a disaster for the Ms is there a reason there hasn’t been much talk of bringing Alex Liddi up? The 2011 Figgins might possibly be the worst MLB player I’ve ever seen so it’s hard to imagine he wouldn’t be an upgrade over what we’ve gotten so far this year from the position.
Triunfel’s got plenty of bat to play at second base as is. I agree he’s going to need to do better to play at third, or the OF. But there’s still a decent shot he sticks at short, and if he’s moved to second, third or the OF he’s going to be a defensive asset at any of those positions.
Catricala, OTOH, is basically a first baseman at best. His bat might “work where he is”, but his glove doesn’t. He has much less chance of sticking at third than Tri does of sticking at short. And there are reports that he doesn’t even have the arm for LF. If he’s a 1B, which I think he is, he’s not going to have enough bat. He’s not a MOTO bat, and you have to be to be a worthwhile big league first baseman unless you’re an on base machine and/or defensive wizard. Catricala is neither of those.
I understand it’s not a hard and fast ranking, but I think any ranking that even sniffs top 5 for him is just far, far too high. He’s a good not great hitter who is destined to be a 1B/DH. Chances are that he never reaches the bigs.
I think our disagreement is much more about Catricala than it is Triunfel, although you definitely seem to have a lower opinion of Triunfel than I do. But I think you vastly overestimate Catricala’s potential. If everything goes right for him he’s a 1 or 2 WAR big league player, IMHO.
Where is Pimentel playing this season?
With Raben, Poythress, Catricala, Carp, Tui and others that I can’t remember, don’t we have an abundance of the same type of players. I do know that Tui and Carp can both play the outfield but both are at best just average fielders out there. Maybe we can trade one or two to the Padres, along with a couple of lower minor pitchers, for Ludwig.
That’s being somewhat generous…
Whatever value Carp has comes from his bat. Whatever value Tui has comes from… hmm, I dunno… his name?