Let’s Talk About Alex Liddi
Yesterday, the Mariners made semi-history when they promoted Alex Liddi to the Majors. While there have been other Italian born Major Leaguers, Liddi is the first in a long time to actually have been raised in Italy, as the Mariners signed him as a 17-year-old after scouting him internationally. Because of his power and the organization’s overall lack of that particular skill, he’s gotten a decent amount of attention as a prospect, and I’m sure many of you are hoping to see him play quite a bit in September.
Personally, I hope we don’t see too terribly much of Liddi this month, because I’d argue that regardless of what happens this month, he needs to spend 2012 back in Tacoma. I know it’s tempting to look at the 30 home runs he hit for the Rainiers and hope that he could provide some thump from the third base position for next year and the future, but when you look at the context of the PCL this year, Liddi didn’t actually have that great of a season.
For the season, he hit .259/.332/.488, good for an .821 OPS. The average hitter in the PCL this year hit .286/.359/.448, good for an .807 OPS. Always a good hitters league, this year the PCL was the best offensive environment to be found anywhere in the sport. Four teams averaged in excess of six runs per game, and only two averaged less than five. It was just a great year to be a hitter in the Pacific Coast League.
When you adjust for context, Liddi’s overall offensive performance simply isn’t all that impressive. He showed no real improvement in his ability to make contact, and a 27% strikeout rate in Triple-A is a legitimate concern. While he’s more selective than a guy like Carlos Peguero, often times an inability to make contact with minor league stuff indicates a more serious issue that can be exploited at the Major League level.
While Liddi made significant strides with the glove this year, he’s still a guy whose value will be tied to well he hits in the big leagues. Right now, there’s not much of a reason to think he’s ready to hit big league pitching.
If he gets regular playing time in September, there are basically two potential outcomes – he performs well and generates unrealistic expectations about his potential ability to contribute to the 2012 roster, or he struggles mightily and loses some of the sheen from what is (at least on the surface) a pretty successful 2011 campaign. Either outcome is probably not in the organization’s best interests.
Liddi is young enough to still have time to improve on his weaknesses and potentially develop into a useful big league player, but he’s just not there yet. Giving him regular playing time down the stretch will likely either generate unfair expectations or harm his confidence, and I’d rather avoid both of those outcomes.
Let him play once a week, use him in blowouts, and give him a taste of the Major Leagues. But, the best use of playing time at third base is still to continue to evaluate Kyle Seager on a daily basis, and I’d rather not see Liddi take any PT away from a guy who could legitimately fill a role on the 2012 team.
Comments
26 Responses to “Let’s Talk About Alex Liddi”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Have to agree, though someone (*cough*GeoffBaker*cough*) will make the silly argument that the M’s need power from 3B, so Liddi makes more sense at 3B than Seager, and ignore the fact that the 2011 Mariners are hitting .235 with a .295 OBP, so it’s not like they are awash in guys who hit for average and can take a walk, but bereft of power.
In fact:
Seager’s minor league OPS: .875, 1245 PAs
Liddi’s minor league OPS: .809, 2951 PAs
This isn’t even close, especially once you throw in K/BB numbers. Seager’s the better hitter, and given his ability to play credible 2B (and thus better 3B), the better player.
As much as that is true, I would much rather see Liddi enter the game instead of Kennedy for the rest of the year
Or he could play some, inevitably struggle, and learn first-hand what he needs to work on in AAA to make himself major league quality.
That thinking is the only plausible explanation I have for so much Peguero this season, unless Zduriencik really wanted a high draft pick again.
Dave,
I couldn’t agree more. While its nice to hear that the M’s have a third base prospect, everything that I have read about Liddi suggests that he will strike out a ton and not have as much power as his AAA stats would suggest. When you combine that with potentially below average defense, it sounds like the makings of a potential disaster.
I will make that argument first.
The pitching staff is not good enough to support a ‘lesser’ offense anymore. While there is no question you can win with pitching and defense, I think people are over-rating the Mariners pitching. Therefore, 3rd base would be a GREAT spot to get some power (slugging, not necessarily gaudy HR numbers).
That being said, Liddi is not it. It would be a miracle if he transformed into someone who hit enough HR’s/doubles to justify his strikeout numbers. However, if the Mariners found someone who could hit .250/.305/.500 with average defense at 3B, I would be all over that. But, that doesn’t exist in the Mariner’s future.
Assuming that Liddi’s walk rate drops and his strikeout rate goes up when he hits the majors, the ex-Mariner he reminds me of most is Jim Presley.
I can remember gnawing my arms upon the occasions of his occasional silver sombrero and fairly frequent tin sombreros (3 Ks) with Martinez still languishing in the minors.
This idea that a guy with “power” is somehow better than another guy with less power, but the same overall production is kind of baffling. A .340 wOBA is a .340 wOBA (essentially). The Mariners just need production, they can’t afford to be picky whether its through plate discipline, power or whatever.
“Liddi is young enough to still have time to improve on his weaknesses and potentially develop into a useful big league player, but he’s just not there yet. Giving him regular playing time down the stretch will likely either generate unfair expectations or harm his confidence, and I’d rather avoid both of those outcomes.”
I couldn’t agree more but I’m sure the M’s coaching staff will be able to handle it the best way possible, exactly like they professionally did during the last years. In the meantime it’s just celebration time for some folks like me down here in Italy ! Celebration for a kid come from nowhere to make true his life dream. He’s not just the first Italian raised player to reach the majors, he’s also the first one to having ever reached AA and AAA. Yes, perhaps he’s still halfway from the final aim but please do not be too scared if someday and somewhere he’s going to make it for real.
Well, good point. However, a player with power will ‘generate’ wOBA more easily (please excuse the generalization). Because… that is tne nature of wOBA.
If a player is good enough (see old Ichiro), then the power means little.
So, it is a simplistic way of looking at it, but a player with power becomes easier to find, and likely costs less then the singles hitter that can generate the same wOBA, because they are, well, easier to find.
I doubt there’s anything new and vital that they miss out on learning about Seager by taking a week’s worth of ABs from him this month. I don’t remember if he’s going to fall league or similar, but I’d think there and spring training will be as useful or more than having an extra 30 – 40 ABs now.
I agree. Having his weaknesses made crystal clear by having him face major league pitching may get through to him in a way Brown and company haven’t been able to yet.
Basically, use Liddi as much as you would use any cup-of-coffee fellow (the once-a-week game, the blowouts, the couple remaining day-after-night getaway days) and then add time Wedge would normally give to Kennedy (so, another game or two a week).
Although, Dave advised getting Liddi in there for blowouts… judging from the starters the M’s have for the remainder of the season, Liddi could end up playing 60% of the remaining September games.
I’m wondering if long-term, Carlos Triunfel might not be a better 3B prospect than Liddi. Barring a trade, 3B should be a very interesting competition in spring training, with Figgins (don’t laugh), Seager, Liddi, Triunfel, Martinez, and maybe Catricala in the mix.
I was looking at the updated depth chart Matthew posted over at LL yesterday – and it sure looks like we’re awash in third basemen now. That seems like another good reason not to rush Liddi to the bigs.
Besides, as Dave and other commenters noted – right now, Seager deserves an extended look. I know he had a bad hop yesterday, but overall he hasn’t looked horrible in my opinion – and he can certainly hit better than Figgins.
I saw it … it was hilarious! Figgins is listed at #8 on the 3B depth chart behind Carp, Willy Mo and Felix.
You might want to scrub the list a bit before declaring the “awash’ness,” Westy … but it was funny, nonetheless
Hahaha! You know, I noticed the “F. Hernandez” and thought “that’s weird, I didn’t know there was another Hernandez in the org”. That distracted me from noticing the “Carp” and “Pena” entries.
Oh man, I must need more caffeine.
Hang in there buddy, it has been a long year.
There may be … what … 6 or 7 more victories left in this team – this season? As long as they avoid losing 100, Ichiro goes on a rampage and Wily Mo starts taking grounders at 3B – the season will have ended on a positive note and not have been a lost cause. One scenario (from these 3) will probably occur, but still ….
So, it is a simplistic way of looking at it, but a player with power becomes easier to find, and likely costs less then the singles hitter that can generate the same wOBA, because they are, well, easier to find.
This just isn’t so, at all. If anything, power hitters are more likely to be grossly overpaid than players with balanced offensive skills (hi, Adam Dunn!). If you want another example, Junior got to hang out for TEN YEARS in MLB as a mostly-replacement level player because, well, DINGERS!
And this completely obscures the point: Seager is a better hitter than Liddi. Seager is the better player, and if his minor league numbers convert OK to the MLB level, he’d be a perfectly adequate 3B. The Mariners have a competent SS (Ryan), a budding star at 2B (Ackley), and Chone Figgins as the incumbent veteran at 3B. This is not rocket science- if they want to fix problems, a 3B who might hit .270/.330/.425 in today’s run environment, with adequate defense is not a problem. Spend time fixing other problems with the roster.
Spot on.
I first believed the posters original thought was that “production is production” regardless of where it comes from (which is an excellent point), but he might want a Mulligan in regard to the follow-up example. Maybe he needs some caffeine, too. Westy has some.
I would rather see Seager at 2nd base, Ackley in left, and a cast of try-outs at third.
Ackley plays a competent (i.e. Much better than Jeter) 2b-why would anyone want to move him to the OF?
If Seager’s best role is as a league average 2b, trade him to someone for a league average LF.
Damn right, bookbook. You don’t move Ackley (whose UZR/150 is 4.1, small sample size be damned!) to accommodate Seager. Kyle’s got the potential to be a useful player, but if he’s most useful at 2b, he can play it elsewhere.
Haven’t seen Jeter at 2nd base so I couldn’t say, although the Yankees should have moved him there years ago. Ackley handles the routine plays at 2nd; and he obviously is still uncomfortable there and has shown nothing that Lopez didn’t have. Seager is much more athletic and has experience at 2nd. In his entire baseball life, Ackley has never been assigned to an important defensive position. Do you think that’s an accident? He’s adequate but will never be more than that. 2nd and ss are too important defensively to settle for someone who’s just OK. This team is being built on pitching and it is absolutely imperative to back the staff with as much talent as possible at key defensive positions.
If Seager’s best role is as a league average 2b, trade him to someone for a league average LF.
If Seager’s capable of being a league average 3B AND a league average 2B, guess what? The Mariners need a 3B.
Hint: someone who is an average 2B on defense and has the arm to play 3B can easily pick up as much on defense going from 2B to 3B as they “lose” on offense. Think David Bell or (pre-sucktastic) Chone Figgins.
2nd and ss are too important defensively to settle for someone who’s just OK
Bunk. Ackley’s potentially a 4+ WAR player. You think the Yankees have suffered with a 4+ WAR player (whose value is mostly on offense) playing short for a good chunk of two decades? If you do, you simply don’t understand baseball. Ackley is FINE where he is. Seager has the potential to be FINE where he is. Worrying about where to move your average 3B or above-average 2B while your team is on pace for another .400 winning percentage season is worrying about the wrong things. How about we try to improve the actual weaknesses on the team, as opposed to saying “the strengths aren’t absolutely perfect, so let’s screw around with what’s working”?
Sims compared Liddi to Ryan Zimmerman tonight on the broadcast. Zimmerman should sue for libel.
Actually, Sims reported that Ted Simmons suggested Liddi should pattern himself after Zimmerman, because they are similarly sized, both being big guys. Let’s be accurate here!
Has anyone else looked at his left right and home road splits? Not what you’d expect. He’s right handed yet hits right handers a ton better.
left .219/.308/.453/.761
right .271/.339/.499/.838
Also all I’ve heard is how Cheney Stadium is such a hitter’s park this year after the remodel and he posts this.
Home .232/.298/.409/.707
Away .283/.361/.557/.918
Looking at this should kind of let them know what he needs to work on for next year…. learn to hit lefties please!
“Has anyone else looked at his left right and home road splits? Not what you’d expect.”
Of course I noted that but I kept my mouth shut. When he had that breakout season in A+ his stats were not reliable due to the Cal League, now the PCL has become a hitters’ paradise and the story remains the same. I hope the AL West is not going to become suddenly another hitters’ league.