’11 40-Man Preview Extravaganza
It’s that time of the year again. Leaves are dropping, everything is pumpkin flavoured, Christmas music exists prematurely as something for people to either enjoy or loudly complain about, and I come back from the dead to tell you all about setting the 40-man (deadline: Nov. 18th) in advance of the Rule 5 draft. So! This year, we’re looking at ’07 HS draftees and int’l signings and ’08 college draftees. Thrilling, right? This is the last year we’re going to be dealing exclusively with Fontaine drafts and I’m curious to see how the new administration will prioritize their own picks, but for now, we have a large pile of players among whom there aren’t a whole lot of locks. I’ll note before we get into it that the contracts of some of the international players can get a little confusing in that it’s not always easy to tell if they’ve signed a 2007 contract or a 2008 contract. If guys like Francisco Martinez and Erasmo Ramirez are eligible (I’m at least pretty sure Erasmo isn’t), you can bet that they’ll be added, but I believe both would be due next year.
So let’s take a more exhaustive look than we need to at some names here:
CF Denny Almonte, S/R, 9/24/1988
2011 (A+): 128 G, 504 AB, 75, 135 H, 28 2B, 6 3B, 24 HR, 97 RBI, 18 SB, 12 CS, 161/22 K/BB, .268/.298/.490
Pros: One of the more physically talented players all around in the system. Dropped his K/PA % by 6.5% this year.
Cons: Repeated both the Midwest and California Leagues without showing much improvement.
Summary: A descriptor that I’ve seen follow Almonte around is that he’s a worse version of Greg Halman. Physical tools will bring up the name in discussions and skills will likely drop it.
LF/CF Daniel Carroll, R/R, 1/6/1989
2011 (A+): 131 G, 482 AB, 117 R, 144 H, 20 2B, 6 3B, 18 HR, 57 RBI, 62 SB, 14 CS, 157/88 K/BB, .299/.418/.477
Pros: High-motor player. Quite competent at drawing walks. Speed and some power.
Cons: Strikeout and injury prone. Waiting to see how power might translate outside of the Cal League.
Summary: Carroll, up until this season, had only played in 305 games over three and a half seasons because he has a bad tendency to lean into pitches and wreck himself. Consequently, he may have more room for skill growth than most players at the same age and stage, but the potential return may not be very high.
RF Chih-Hsien Chiang, L/R, 2/21/1988
2011 (BOS AA): 88 G, 321 AB, 68 R, 109, 37 2B, 4 3B, 18 HR, 76, 6 SB, 2 CS, 61/25 K/BB, .340/.402/.648
2011 (SEA AA): 32 G, 130 AB, 11 R, 27 H, 7 2B, 10 RBI, SB,2 CS, 30/6 K/BB, .208/.255/.262
Pros: Broke out for reasons that seem like they could be supported by the scientific method.
Cons: See those numbers with us? Also, he doesn’t walk much, so it’s going to be mostly average and power with him.
Summary: Chiang started well in the AFL but has since slowed down. I don’t know whether to look at that as a function of diet or slumps though, and therein lies an issue with him. Since the M’s made the point of trading for him, I would be surprised if he wasn’t added.
1B Jharmidy de Jesus, R/R, 8/30/1989
2011 (A-): 58 G, 201 AB, 31 R, 60 H, 8 2B, 3B, 4 HR, 33 RBI, 3 SB, 42/18 K/BB, .299/.374/.408
Pros: Physical abilities, specifically power, that once warranted throwing a lot of money at him.
Cons: Has done little since his debut season. Injuries and rumours of conditioning issues.
Summary: Eh. It would be one thing if he showed great power or plate discipline, but he’s another guy that will be brought up and quickly dropped if his name comes up at all.
1B/OF Joe Dunigan, L/L, 3/29/1986
2011 (A+): 33 G, 106 AB, 16 R, 25 H, 3 2B, 10 HR, 19 RBI, CS, 59/12 K/BB, .236/.314/.547
2011 (AA): 49 G, 172 AB, 23 R, 37 H, 11 2B, 3B, 7 HR, 30 RBI, 4 SB, 2 CS, 81/26 K/BB, .215/.317/.413
Pros: Posted a .925 OPS back in 2009. Is left-handed.
Cons: Hit the double-A wall, and hard. Missed a lot of time this year.
Summary: We have power on the 40-man already from guys that struggled less in double-A. I suppose Dunigan can walk a little, but really, no.
LHP Anthony Fernandez, 6/8/1990
2011 (A+): 1-1, 7 G, 7,39 ERA in 28.0 IP, 48 H (4 HR), 27 R (23 ER), 26/13 K/BB
2011 (A): 7-4, 21 G (19 GS), 2.80 ERA in 125.1 IP, 109 H (6 HR), 49 R (39 ER), 107/42 K/BB
Pros: Above-average velocity at times for a lefty. Has strikeouts.
Cons: Southpaws with not-great velocity can be exposed as they move up. Command isn’t where you want it to be.
Summary: I like Fernandez overall, but his command this year was the worst it’s been since he arrived in the states which makes me worry about the margin of error with him going forward.
RHP Jarrett Grube, 11/5/1981
2011 (AA): 5-2, 14 GS, 3.11 ERA in 84.0 IP, 79 H (4 HR), 35 R (29 ER), 69/20 K/BB
2011 (AA): 4-4, 14 G (7 GS), 4.95 ERA in 60.0 IP, 51 H (10 HR), 34 R (33 ER), 51/ 18 K/BB
Pros: One of the most consistent starters for the teams he’s been on in the past two years.
Cons: Just turned thirty. Limited exposure in triple-A.
Summary: If you happen to need a live arm around to fill a role, one could probably do worse than Grube. Still, his age makes me think that he’s more likely to get a spring training invite for February than a 40-man spot in November.
RHP Steve Hensley, 12/27/1986
2011 (AA): 4-8, 19 G (18 GS), 4.61 ERA in 95.2 IP, 112 H (10 HR), 57 R (49 ER), 65/38 K/BB
Pros: Live stuff that could play well in relief. Good slider.
Cons: Balky elbow. Walks have gone up since 2009 while strikeouts have been down a bit.
Summary: Hensley hasn’t done much to impress in the AFL thus far, and he’s not as interesting as a reliever unless he manages to get some consistency down. Still, 40-man spots have been handed out for less.
RHP Kenn Kasparek, 9/23/1985
2011 (AA): 5-5, 12 GS, 4.50 ERA in 62.0 IP, 69 H (6 HR), 39 R (31 ER), 40/26 K/BB
Pros: Really tall. Has shown good stuff in the past when healthy.
Cons: Strikeouts have tailed off since 2009. Probably not entirely healthy.
Summary: Another starter who may be more suited to relief long-term, and it’s hard to argue that he’s as or more deserving than some of the other representatives.
LHP Bobby LaFromboise, 6/25/1986
2011 (AA): 3-4, 49 G, 3.10 ERA in 61.0 IP, 62 (6 HR), 23 R( 21 ER), 53/24 K/BB
Pros: Another left-hander who pitches decently.
Cons: Stuff unexceptional. Solely a relief arm this year. tRA is unimpressed.
Summary: LaFromboise relieving was one of the bigger mysteries of the year, and it didn’t help that his walk rate rose while he was in the ‘pen. At the very least, he’s pretty good at getting left-handers out, but I don’t know that this all justifies protecting him.
1B/LF Johan Limonta, L/L, 8/4/1983
2011 (AAA): 108 G, 407 AB, 58 R, 130 H, 20 2B, 3B, 14 HR, 84 RBI, 3 SB, 3 CS, 75/44 K/BB, .319/.382/.477
Pros: Hit competently at the highest level in the minors after getting his first shot there.
Cons: Who didn’t hit in the PCL this year? Also, he’s not exactly young and his power is somewhat erratic.
Summary: Limonta does bring something to the table, but for what that is, I can imagine that there are a few 1B/DH types floating around as free agents that would get picked up instead. The defensive versatility isn’t super exciting or anything. Most would prefer better power numbers.
3B/1B Mario Martinez, R/R, 11/13/1989
2011 (A+): 109 G, 432 AB, 64 R, 120 H, 22 2B, 3 3B, 11 HR, 56 RBI, 2 SB, CS, 137/19 K/BB, .278/.313/.419
Pros: Like de Jesus, his abilities once warranted a large amount of money being thrown at him.
Cons: His 2011 “breakout” is nearly identical to his 2010, just scale up the hits. Road stats were what his regular seasons stats look like in any other year.
Summary: Moving on.
1B/DH Dennis Raben, L/L, 7/31/1987
2011 (A+): 76 G, 309 AB, 61 R, 102 H, 23 2B, 3 3B, 18 HR, 75 RBI, 2 SB, CS, 76/28 K/BB, .330/.387/.599
Pros: Great power. Did some work to allay concerns that he couldn’t hit left-handed pitching. Strikeouts not-horrific.
Cons: Knee issues have meant he’s rarely been healthy and he’s topped out at 82 games a season so far. Probably 1B/DH for the future.
Summary: Raben is a guy that you’re pretty much rolling the dice on. If he were demonstrably healthy, I would absolutely believe that he was worth holding on to for that power. Since he isn’t to my eyes, I don’t know.
RHP Angel Raga, 7/25/1989
2011 (R): 2-3, 17 G (6 GS), 4.09 ERA in 44.0 IP, 40 H (4 HR), 21 R (2 ER), 47/8 K/BB
Pros: Put up some fine numbers this season and has decent stuff. Room left for growth.
Cons: Really inexperienced, since Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his first two years.
Summary: It seems like someone with Raga’s profile gets selected each year, which is reason enough to protect him if you believe in him, but even if you do believe in him, he’s a good bet to burn through every option before you can expect him to really contribute.
IF Scott Savastano, R/R, 6/12/1986
2011 (AA): 104 G, 368 AB, 54 R, 104 H, 28 2B, 3B, 10 HR, 49 RBI, 3 SB, 2 CS, 62/45 K/BB, .283/.362/.446
Pros: Decent plate discipline. Added slugging percentage points in double-A this year.
Cons: No true position. Could use more raw power.
Summary: If you don’t like him, he’s an org player. If you do like him, he’s a bat-first utility infielder who could still use more HR power than we’ve seen from him to date.
OF Jake Shaffer, L/L, 8/16/1987
2011 (AA): 120 G, 442 AB, 57 R, 127 H, 22 2B, 7 3B, 11 HR, 47 RBI, 8 SB, 8 CS, 83/30 K/BB, .287/.333/.443
Pros: Hit .306/.347/.493 in the first half. No real issues batting against left-handers.
Cons: Hit .256/.309/.360 in the second half. Could stand to walk more given that his power isn’t great.
Summary: Some people may not be satisfied with this response, but given the bad numbers he put up in the last two-and-a-half months of the year, I can’t avoid thinking of him topping out as a fourth or fifth outfielder.
3B/LF Nate Tenbrink, L/R, 12/21/1986
2011 (AA): 64 G, 211 AB, 30 R, 46 H, 9 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 25 RBI, 11 SB, 3 CS, 60/34 K/BB, .218/.337/.403
Pros: Has improved most years he’s played. Hit .318/.409/.521 between Jackson and High Desert last year.
Cons: Injured for much of this year. Still working on trying to find a position for him.
Summary: There’s an urge to be positive about him because unlike a lot of toolsy players, his performances have improved from one year to the next. On the other hand, if this year’s slump was a lingering effect from last year’s concussion, he could be in trouble.
SS Carlos Triunfel, R/R, 2/27/1990
2011 (AA): 105 G, 395 AB, 45 R, 111 H, 22 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 45 RBI, 6 SB, 7 CS, 88/27 K/BB, .281/.332/.383
2011 (AAA): 27 G, 111 AB, 7 R, 31 H, 6 2B, 3B, 10 RBI, SB, 17/2 K/BB, .279/.302/.351
Pros: Unlike the other players who had money thrown at them, Triunfel has made it to and beyond double-A. Youth suggests development time remaining. May actually be a shortstop. Healthy at present.
Cons: That power we were looking for from him? It’s never come, and this season provided a new high in Ks.
Summary: All things considered, Triunfel probably has more value to the M’s than he would to other teams, considering the money we’ve spent on him and how the M’s FO would have more reason to believe he could improve than those less close to the situation. At the same time, I don’t see any reason for them to chance it, so they’ll probably put him on.
LHP Philippe Valiquette, 2/14/1987
2011 (N/A): Did not play
Pros: Rumored to be hitting mid-to-high 90s on the radar gun, which for a southpaw, is silly.
Cons: Injured all this year. Has been a reliever since 2007, which incidentally was the first and only time he walked fewer than 3.9 per nine over the course of a season.
Summary: Valiquette signed with us as a minor league free agent late in the season. He’s the biggest enigma in a pile of question marks, but if other teams see that he’s throwing that hard and is healthy, they won’t care how bad his command is.
There are plenty of other players that I could be talking about. Examples include Jonathan Arias, Dwight Britton, Tony Butler, Luke French, Nick Hill, Jose Jimenez, Stephen Kahn, Kuo-hui Lo, Fray Martinez, James McOwen, Ramon Morla, Jesse Nava, Gabriel Noriega, Edward Paredes, Kyle Parker, Stephen Penney, Chaz Roe, Reynaldo Sabala, Edlando Seco, Taylor Stanton, and others I’ve omitted, but in general those guys all have a few glaring flaws that make it hard to even include them in passing. There’s also Efrain Nunez if he’s eligible, but again, I don’t think he is based off of what I see in the media guide. But as thorough [read as: “crazy”] as I am, I even have to draw the line somewhere.
Now, at this stage of things, we can’t really say “if you were to pick x guys from this group, who would they be?” because rosters are still being manipulated and the team will also theoretically want to leave room for free agent signings or their own weird Rule 5 picks that will not likely make it out of spring training. Any stabs I make at this are educated guesses. If I were to pick some “locks”, I would say that Triunfel and Chiang would be it, in addition to whoever is actually eligible of Erasmo and Francisco Martinez. Assuming the rumours about Valiquette are true, he could also be in there seeing as how we’ve protected guys like that in the past.
In the second tier there, the “maybe” guys, I’d put Raben and Carroll near the top and continue with pitchers like Fernandez and Hensley. Almonte could also be selected depending on if the M’s fit Halman into a trade somewhere, but otherwise, I’m less confident on him. On numbers, Grube deserves consideration, but age may play into it as he’s not likely to be part of the long-term reckoning. Tenbrink’s hitting in recent years has earned him a spot in the discussion, certainly, though the recent injuries cast a cloud over his future. It’s a question of whether you want to protect him while hoping for a rebound or if you think that because of said injuries, you can chance not having him on there.
To an extent, this group will resemble the groups of the past two years or so, sans Pineda of course. We’re investing spots in these guys on the chance that one of them becomes at least a contributor and hopefully more than that. Future years may feature more “prospects”, but given the quick rises of Seager and Ackley, they might also not. The point, after all, is to have good young players, not to make mid-November more interesting [to me] than other times of the year.
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20 Responses to “’11 40-Man Preview Extravaganza”
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Good write-up. Thanks for the info, Jay. This makes for a good reference when these things go out.
One of the things you did here that was great was include at bat/plate appearance numbers so we could get a sense of how significant those numbers are. There’s a good article in Baseball Prospectus arguing that all triple slash lines ought to be followed by plate appearance numbers.
Thanks, this is very useful. Any chance you could briefly update it when we get closer to the deadline and the M’s have made a few moves?
I find Raben and Carroll to be really intriguing so I hope they stick around. Carroll looks like a guy who may fill a need in the near future: leadoff hitter. Well worth keeping around another year. And our system just doesn’t seem to have enough power guys to give up on Raben just yet. He needs to move up to AA and play a full season so we can see what we’ve got.
Good stuff, thanks.
Which of this lot seem like decent trade fodder this winter? The descriptions here make it sound like they’re all too raw to really be included in a significant deal, or possibly in a deal at all.
(Well, except for the ones that wouldn’t move because you’ve identified them as being significant investments from the M’s already, like the traded-for Chiang and the seemingly-here-forever Triunfel.)
Also, pretty scary that I don’t see a single catcher mentioned in here.
Is this Vincent Catricala kid legit?
If it needs to be done, sure, but I think that the most that could happen is a few guys get spun off somewhere else as part of a deal and then I just pare the list down.
I’m not a big fan of this crop. Most of them are throw-ins, something you use to sweeten the deal. I’m not of the opinion that any of these comprise “top prospects”, but Kevin Goldstein had Chiang in the top eleven he did for BP a couple of days ago and I can see him being included elsewhere. Triunfel as well. Francisco Martinez, if eligible, would slot somewhere around #6 for me.
But as you said, since we have invested in all three in some capacity, I would be surprised if they went anywhere.
The M’s drafted one catcher in 2007. That was Jeff Dunbar, who was pitching within a year or two, and then gone.
In 2008, we signed three catchers from our draft class. Travis Howell was released in 2009 after hitting .205/.303/.367 in half a season in Clinton. He did not play baseball last season. Henry Contreras played less than 40 games a year for us from 2008-2010 and never higher than Clinton, though he hit reasonably well at each stop. If he’s still team property, he’s injured. Tommy Johnson is in the same boat as Howell but hit more competently.
If you don’t make efforts to acquire competent catchers, you won’t have any. Such was our farm system for quite a while.
Good list Jay, not much to disagree with. Too bad Shaffer dropped off the last half, he was looking good earlier. Raben’s final line looks better than I expected, they should protect him. Chiang is looking pretty streaky but has to be kept.
Great stuff Jay, as usual – Is it just me or is this an unusual number of highly drafted/highly talented/highly compensated players who just haven’t developed?
Any idea what the heck happended to Ramon Morla? He went from a young power-hitting 3B prospect to a guy not worth being protected in 1 year.
Also, despite your thoroughness and general insightfulness with respect to the guys you discussed in detail, I would not be amazed if Paredes or Arias were protected, Paredes because he’s lefthanded and in AAA, Arias because he struck out a bunch of guys.
Thanks Jay. I’m interested to see what becomes of Carroll and Raben (particularly with the failure to sign Kevin Cron), and agree we ought to keep Chiang, Triunfel, Valiquette, and certainly Francisco Martinez if he’s eligible. A few quick questions: how does Carroll profile as a fielder? I heard some off cuff comparisons of Bourjos to Carroll and wondered about the glove. (This seems driven by the lack of power and stolen base totals, maybe whiteness.) How similar are Triunfel and F. Martinez as prospects (and why do people think Francisco has a lot more power)? Finally, does Ji Man Choi fall into this cohort and any word on his recovery from surgeries? Thanks.
Could be, but he’s not a part of this discussion since he’s not eligible until next year.
I’ll probably update my “Rebuilding…” post one of these days, but the 2007 draft was not great even at the time and the 2008 draft was in a similar camp with the additional factors of us not signing our ninth and tenth rounders and then trading off guys like Pribanic and Lorin. I’m looking forward to next year because it’ll be less depressing, although there’s good odds on some of the ’09 draft being added early as Seager and Ackley already have been.
Not entirely certain, but it’s part of a developing trend I’ve noticed where prospects hit really well in Pulaski and then suck everywhere else. Morla also had a few years of uninteresting development from the DSL to Arizona. I probably should have included him if I also included Mar Mar and de Jesus, but he didn’t play a lot this year and such.
Oh, certainly. Paredes at the very least is a serviceable LOOGY, and I like Arias plenty, but think that the five walks per nine complicates things a bit much.
I don’t know that he’s an elite fielder, but he can definitely handle center field and has a more than adequate arm [developed from a stretch of playing catch with a cast on it, which should tell you at least two things about him].
This is as good a question as any. Martinez’ bat is slightly better at this stage because he’s shown a bit more power in the high minors, but his Ks are also forse by a fair amount. He’s also a bit bigger, which could mean more power, or, you know, not. Martinez probably had the capacity to play short, but they’ve always had him at the hot corner and he’s got the tools to be a good defender there, but Triunfel has helped to answer some questions about his on-field abilities and now seems to be regarded as a shortstop. They’ve been rushed in similar capacities, though Martinez’ jumps were more steep (Rookie ball to advanced-A) and he’s been healthy the whole time. They’re pretty similar overall in what concerns they present, but they also provide slightly different things and shouldn’t really be confused for one another.
Choi won’t be eligible for a few years. He’s still recovering and was supposed to be catching a bit on the side at the end of the season (he’s not in instructs), but the whole being injured thing makes me worry about his ability to stick back there and as a 1B prospect he’s not as interesting. They could always move him back to the hot corner, I guess.
And will be for some time, from the looks of it. Catchers in free agency or nothing, I suppose.
Come back, Johjima! All is forgiven! 🙂
I believe Jeff Clement is available from the Pirates.
I thought we were talking about catchers? 😉
I know he’s far away from making the majors, but what of Pedro Okuda? I was shocked (and rather excited) we actually had gotten a player I watched at Koshien and hoped he’d do well.
His line this past year seems like he’s made some progress, but any more info on him would be nice.
If Catricala continues to hit like he has, won’t we have to worry about putting him on the 40 man? I know there are some questions about his swing from scouts, but if he keeps hitting on all levels, don’t the Mariners have to move him up? I’m thinking that he has been acting like Seager and Carp did last year and will force his way on the roster (crossing fingers). Of course, the question will be what position he will play as he sounds like a bat first prospect.
I didn’t really intend for this to become a catch-all minor league post and would prefer that we stick to the subject at hand if at all possible.
As for Okuda, one detail to remember is that his original contract stipulated that he spend the first year in Venezuela because he wanted to spend time with his family. He wasn’t on the list of instructs players this offseason, but the plate discipline was such that I could see him maybe following a Felipe Burin route and showing up the short-seasons at some point next year, either to start or as a later call-up.
Denny Almonte: no. Not enough there to think that he could ever be a good Major League ballplayer.
Daniel Carroll: yes. Young enough and offers enough of a compelling combination of tools and production to want to hang onto him and see what develops.
Chih-Hsien Chiang: yes. Not thrilled about this guy, but he’s got some ability and he was somewhat of a centerpiece in the Bedard trade, so I’m sure the M’s will want to hang on to him.
Jharmidy de Jesus: no. Hasn’t produced or progressed much, hasn’t shown enough for a guy whose position demands that he be a good hitter, and isn’t young now.
Joe Dunigan: no.
Anthony Fernandez: yes. Could be something, could be not. He’s a left-handed starting pitcher, and has shown enough promise of what might be that you wouldn’t want to lose him.
Jarrett Grube: no. Dime a dozen.
Steve Hensley: no. He’s 24 and hasn’t done anything at AA in two years to make you think he’s got much of a chance.
Kenn Kasparek: no. Old and uninteresting.
Bobby LaFromboise: no. Fringe major leaguer at best, the best you can hope for is a somewhat decent option as a LOOGY. If you lose him, there’s plenty of guys you could pick up for nothing that offer the same thing.
Johan Limonta: no. Survivor. Does just enough to hang around, but his time has come and gone.
Mario Martinez: yes. Or maybe. Young enough still and his defensive reputation has you holding out hope that his bat comes around. Not one you’d lose sleep over, though.
Dennis Raben: no. The bat’s always been promising, but he’s lost a lot of development time to injury, and doesn’t offer enough defensive value to warrant sticking with him in the hopes he can stay in the lineup consistently. Could be a guy you would look back and regret losing, but without being able to see him play in the upper minors, it’s hard to judge how his bat would look like in the Majors.
Angel Raga: no. For the reasons you mentioned. His options would likely be up before the time he’s really ready to go, and there’s very little to go on to judge whether he might be a Major League talent in the future.
Scott Savastano: no. While he allowed no runs this year, his K/BB rate was negative infinity zero. You can’t survive in Major League baseball if you walk infinity times the number of batters you strikeout.
Jake Shaffer: no. 24 year old corner outfielder with ho-hum hitting stats in AA.
Nate Tenbrink: uhhh… I like the idea of Nate Tenbrink, and think he could still be a useful piece for a Major League team, but he’s 25 now, and with his low low batting average last year, he’s probably not going to be picked up anyway. So, no.
Carlos Triunfel: yes. Still young enough to realize the potential that so many people have seen in him.
Philippe Valiquette: Don’t know. Don’t really know anything about him.
Of those you listed at the bottom, I might think of adding Noriega. He’s still young, has made it up to AA, and has always had a terrific defensive reputation in the minors. His hitting doesn’t measure up, but if he could improve that some (and there’s still time for him to do that), he could be useful to a Major League team. The unlikelyhood of him being picked, though, doesn’t seem worthy of using a 40-man spot for.
Savastano’s a pitcher now? I had him as a righty-hitting utility player, mostly infield.
Savastano was an emergency pitcher in a couple of blowouts.
Just checking to see who was paying attention. Since Savastano is such an uninteresting player, I thought I’d try to spice things up a bit.