Wells and Carp
In talking with folks about the 2012 roster, it seems evident that a lot more people are comfortable playing Mike Carp regularly next year than there are folks who would be okay seeing Casper Wells get a majority of the playing time in left field. This strikes me as weird, because, well, just look at their career numbers in the big leagues:
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casper Wells | 340 | 7.1% | 26.5% | 0.208 | 0.325 | 0.263 | 0.330 | 0.471 | 0.346 | 116 |
| Mike Carp | 419 | 7.4% | 23.6% | 0.171 | 0.336 | 0.273 | 0.334 | 0.444 | 0.338 | 114 |
Wells and Carp have both essentially racked up a little over half a season of playing time in the Majors. In that time, they’ve posted remarkably similar batting lines and showed essentially the same offensive skillset. There’s really nothing to distinguish one from the other at the plate – they’re essentially equals in nearly every meaningful metric you can think of. Walk rate, strikeout rate, isolated slugging, swing rate, contact rate, swinging strike rate, batting average on balls in play… you name it, their offensive numbers are darn near identical.
Where they begin to diverge is on defense, where Wells’ athleticism and strong arm make him an asset in left field, while Carp is essentially the opposite of that. You don’t have to buy into UZR or any other kind of defensive metric to see that Wells holds a significant advantage with the glove, and that you’d have to believe that Carp will outperform Wells by quite a bit at the plate to offset the difference in defensive value.
So, why the disparate opinions on which of the two has earned a regular spot in the 2012 line-up? It seemingly comes down to what fans saw with their own eyes, and perhaps more precisely, Carp’s performance from July 19th (when he was recalled from Tacoma) to August 16th, when he hit .376/.411/.634 over 25 games. That stretch solidified the idea of Carp as the young power hitter the team had been looking for, and even the following 39 game stretch to close out the season where Carp hit .227/.268/.403 couldn’t take the shine off that one great month.
Interestingly, Wells performance in Seattle followed the same pattern, as he was a monster for the first 15 games after being acquired from Detroit (.333/.415/.649) and then fell flat on his face to finish the season (.067/.176/.156 in his final 15 games). Both players had boom and bust stretches, and they basically occurred at the same time, so we can’t really chalk it up to an issue of recent performance. Instead, it seems like Wells’ struggles in his final 15 games are looming larger in the idea of his future potential than Carp’s final 39 games are, and I have to be honest, I find that a little weird.
If you have two similar offensive players, but one is a good defender and one is not, why is there a preference for the inferior player? Personally, I think both are probably best suited to job-sharing next year, and I’d pencil each of them in for 300-400 plate appearances in an ideal circumstance, but I am left wondering why there’s such a vast difference in perception between the two.
Wells had vertigo and Carp didn’t?
Carp’s been in the M’s system longer?
Something something gritty something real gamer blah?
I got nothin’. When you put their stats side by side like that, yeah, it’s odd.
I think it’s because Carp sucked and then suddenly turned into a power hitter in Tacoma and then came up and was immediately successful, which to an optimist makes it look like he had made a major step forward as a new kind of hitter.
Carp is familiar but also a pleasant surprise. Wells is new and ended the year injured. (They say he’s healthy, let’s hope so) I don’t know anyone who doesn’t want Wells to get playing time.
The fact that we are having trouble allocating playing time for all our young guys with potential is awesome. I can’t remember this ever being a problem for us.
This
and
Wells is a righty, Carp a lefty
Carp is about 2 years younger
Carp is a “known” commodity since he has been in the system for awhile
I agree they are a job share, and a very nice one too.
I can’t speak for popular opinion, but Wells’ ceiling seems to be pretty clearly a platoon/4th OF role. I would imagine Joe Fan could see he really can’t hit RHP, so what’s the big deal?
Carp ran a .819 OPS after his callup. There’s a whole generation of Mariner fans who have never seen a DH/LF do that for a full season. Its a little hard not to get excited about that. Hopefully we won’t have to find out if he really could pull it off.
It occurs to me that one of the reasons I personally have been somewhat down on Wells is because you seem to have him pegged as a 4th outfielder type. If he can put up an 800 OPS with solid defense in left again next year that actually sounds pretty good to me for a starter. What’s the average line from a LFer? Or is it that you don’t think he can do that well?
The two year age separation and handedness seem to be important points in this matter. The first thing I thought of was, “But Carp’s left handed!”
Sitting down and thinking about it for a moment, they seem to be a perfect pair for a platoon. The two of them would do a better job of filling out the outfield than either would on his own. And you can skew the platoon a bit by using Wells in situations (late in games, or with a flyball pitcher on the mound) that emphasize his stronger defensive value.
I’ve noticed this as well. I think Wells is more likely to stick than Carp, especially since his he had vertigo over nearly 1/3 of those PAs(he posted a 37% K rate over this period). Wells also hasn’t had issues vs RHs over a small sample size in the majors, so I wouldn’t be quick to right him off as a platoon player. It’s strange that a player who has posted 2.8 WAR over half a season hasn’t got fans excited.
As far as Carp as OF platoon, I think it remains to be seen if he can hack it defensively. At times he looked terrible out there, as can be expected when a not very athletic 1B plays OF. However, he also looks surprisingly good out there at times. So I think the book is out on him. His true talent level likely needs to be a UZR >= – 10 for Carp to be an OF.
Been wondering this myself, thanks for the post!
I would imagine Joe Fan could see he really can’t hit RHP, so what’s the big deal?
Carp vs RHPs: .266/.322/.427
Wells vs RHPs: .264/.326/.485
Care to try again?
Dave,
This question doesn’t require metrics or stats to decipher. I think why people are leaning one way or the other is based on their assumption of what the team is going to do in the off season.
If we don’t sign Prince Fielder or acquire an everyday player then everyone should be in agreement that Wells is the everyday LF(potential future RF depending on how he plays and how the Ichiro situation pans out). If he falters or doesn’t play well then Robinson/Saunders/Peguerro/etc. are waiting in the wings.
While Carp is the everyday DH (occasionally making spot starts in LF/1st).
It seems to me people always have a bias towards (perceived) home grown players, even if they haven’t done anything that sets them apart from guys who are brought in from elsewhere.
And if those “home grown” players are actually from the Seattle area (e.g. Tui, WFB) – it’s even stronger; strong enough to counter obvious deficiencies in ability. That may be because we remember them being significantly better than the competition when they were in high school or college, so it’s hard to reconcile that mentally with the idea that they just may not be that good in comparison to the truly elite players of the major leagues (or NFL, or whatever pro sports league is relevant to the discussion).
I think we’re actually overthinking this one. For more than three months of 2011, we watched pitching gem after pitching gem wasted in front of an offense with Bradley, then Kennedy (At DH! Batting Clean-up!), and Peguero. Meanwhile, Carp was raking at Tacoma. [You told us that Carp wasn’t all that, and I believe he isn’t, but he sure seemed to be raking!] Then, after a callup where he didn’t get many PAs, he came up and… raked.
Meanwhile, Wells came at the trading deadline as the in-his-prime 4th OF-type who might hold the fort for awhile until “superstars” Robinson and Cheng, also acquired in deadline deals, figured things out and became the starters. He cost us a pitcher who was lights out down the stretch and so we even questioned the wisdom of the deal. His performance was bound to be seen in a different light. [You’ve told us he isn’t all that, either. This time we believe you.]
The minor league track record is different. Wells has lots of power but also tends to strike out quite a bit, 20-25% in the minors. Carp used to be a high-contact (as in a strikeout% in the ~15% range) with moderate power. Then he traded about 5% more strikeouts for almost double the power.
And that’s not to mention the 2 years difference. Carp has more intriguing potential while Wells is more of a known commodity.
If anything the fact that Wells got traded would offhand tend to discount his value (he got traded for Fister, who to the average fan doesn’t appear to be that valuable).
The better defense of Wells ought to make him a more valuable LF.
Klatz, I’d argue that being traded is not an indication of how expendable that player was to their previous org. (Cliff Lee, traded.) Detroit got Mister Fister in return, which I prefer to think of as an indication that they did value Wells, and had to give something to get something.
I agree with this piece (Wells, if healthy, is more valuable than Carp in the OF). I think it might be equally interesting to ask if people have more faith in Carp, Wells, or Smoak, since these are the toggle positions for Carp. My guess is that people believe Carp has a) “turned the corner” and b) came up with big hits late in games. I don’t believe either thing, and I know clutchness is not a skill, but storytelling does not require facts to flourish. On the other hand, if the M’s don’t acquire any new “big bat”, we may not need to choose, and can all to sit back and see who wins the WAR.
Personally, I think both are probably best suited to job-sharing next year, and I’d pencil each of them in for 300-400 plate appearances in an ideal circumstance
This. Why?
Mariner OPS as RHB, vs. RHP/LHP: .595/.669
Mariner OPS as LHB, vs. RHP/LHP: .630/.626
None of those stats are good, but last year’s team had extraordinarily weak RHB performance against RHP. If your righties hit righties much worse than Willie Bloomquist hits everybody (lifetime OPS: 654. Last year’s OPS: .657), you have a huge problem- there’s no way you can put 9 LHB in a lineup.
(This problem stems mostly from Brendan Ryan, Jack Wilson, and Guti, incidentally. Olivo had OK splits, though he wasn’t very good.)
This team needs decent RHB plate appearances from guys who aren’t helpless against RHP. That probably means Guti needs to bounce back strong, plus Wells or a FA. Given the problems that need addressing, Wells is probably the best we can hope for.
This is about to make me start on a “Could they FIX THE ****** PARK ALREADY so it doesn’t **** righties so badly, while they are at it, so they don’t have to field a team that’s dominantly lefty in order to score three runs a game?” rant, but that’s kind of offtopic.
This.
Awesome. Laughed out loud… Probably made a few free agent right handed hitters laugh too. (sadly)
Carp vs RHPs: .266/.322/.427
Wells vs RHPs: .264/.326/.485
Interesting. I have had it in the back of my mind that Carp and Wells would platoon next year. Now I wonder if maybe the team should consider giving Wells a chance to win the LF job outright, although these numbers imply he doesn’t hit lefties very well.
Also, Carp hit .276, and Wells hit .237. I know, I know, BA isn’t the best stat for assessing value, but a low batting average affects people’s impression.
I think I have two reasons for having bias toward Carp: 1). his “bust” stretch was him batting .227, while Wells’ bust stretch entailed a .067 average… huge difference. And 2). Carp remained health all season while Wells had health issues.
I didn’t say they were very good reasons…
Exactly. The reason people aren’t as down on Ackley or Carp is because their “bust” was still pretty decent relative to our offense. But Smoak, Wells, and Gutierrez’s “bust” were just down right terrible (yet all caused by injury so no need to fear, right?), below Mendoza line type stuff, so they’re subject to uncertainty.
Personally I feel like Casper Wells was the key to the Fister trade so if he doesn’t work out to at least a starting LF, that trade was a failure. Luckily his power is real, his K% should decrease dramatically if he’s healthy, and he has a decent history of patience at the plate. Plus he can play defense! I’m much higher on Wells than Carp, who’ll need a better bat to stick at 1B/DH than Wells will.
Why the disparate opinions? Most Mariners fans never saw Wells’ MLB PA’s in Detroit so, as you said, they are going by what they saw with their own eyes after the trade. Also, Wells’ bust stretch was a lot worse than Carp’s bust stretch. I also think that some people are including Carp’s 2011 production in Tacoma into the equation where he destroyed AAA pitching.
Personally, I liked what I saw offensively from Carp more than what I saw from Wells last season but we’ll know more about both of them a couple of months into next season.
You bring up a good point. I think most of the mainstream audience prefers Carp over Wells, despite the close similarities in their major league stats. That being said, here are a few reasons why I think Carp is a better bat:
1) Carp has displayed much better plate discipline in the past than he did in his recent major league stint. I think he adjusting to a new power-oriented approach at the plate, but I think he still has a skillful eye. I think his K-rate should drop and his walk rate should rise somewhat substantially in 2012.
2) He’s a left handed bat that fits well in Safeco. I think that “soup shot” is lodged into a lot of people’s memories in regards to the extent of Carp’s power.
3) He’s shown a tremendous work ethic and seems determined to be the best player he can be. The fact that he lost all the weight and tried to re-invent his game is impressive, to say the least. It’s more than almost any other player in the organization has successfully done.
That being said, he is a poor defender. Although I think he has the potential to be a below average corner defensive outfielder rather than an albatross. With his age and work ethic, I’d say he probably at least projects better than Ibanez did out there.
I wouldn’t fault the Mariners for using Carp as trade bait this off-season. If the Mariners need to acquire a nice starter, third baseman or catcher, then he might be one of the most attractive pieces. I think his stock is much higher than Smoak’s at the moment, warranted or not.
That being said, the thought of a Carp/Wells platoon in left field is intriguing to me. If the Mariners went that route, I’d hope they acquire another above-average hitter that could swap between DH and LF, to get Carp out of the field as much as possible.
Wells is a nice player, but I think any right-handed corner outfielder has more to prove than a left-hander. Wells is going to have to prove he can improve his approach at the plate before I’d be comfortable penciling him in as an everyday guy.
Well, given that Carp’s (possibly unsustainable) offensive performance last year was still worse than what Ibanez provided offensively as a Mariner… you’d hope so, at least if you’re a Mike Carp fan. But comparing to Ibanez’s defensive “ability” is judging by a pretty low standard; and, even so, it’s only what you hope than what you have reason to expect.
I think much of it is timing and psychological impression. Carp created expectations with his hot hitting in the minors, fans were denied seeing if that potential would translate in the majors for a long time, creating anticipation, and then, when finally called up and given ABs, he fulfilled those expectations for a long enough time to make that the overriding impression.
Mo matter what he turns out to be in the long run, he at least provided some relief from terrible hitting. I think people hope, more than analyze, that he could continue to do so given the opportunity.
Also, since Carp has shown a willingness to change by upgrading his physical fitness and changing his batting approach, there is the possibility he will continue to do so and get himself into a more productive family of hitters.
I’m not sure I favor him over Wells, but I would like to see what he can do next year.
How are people high on Carp? Bill James projects Carp to walk 2.5% more, K 4.7% less, adjusts the BABIP, and gets… a .333 wOBA.
Wells projects by James to walk .5% more, K% at a career high 26.1%, and gets… a .337 wOBA.
Add the defense and barring power surge/declines, there’s zero argument that Carp is better than Wells. We’ve given Carp extra walks, less Ks, and Wells more Ks than his Detroit numbers, and we still get Wells as slightly better even without defense.
A lot of people probably think that Carp’s career numbers aren’t really representative of his current abilities, since they include his cups of coffee in 2009 and 2010 before he changed his approach. Moreover, I doubt many Mariners fans saw Wells when he played in Detroit. If you compare Carp’s 2011 numbers with Wells’ 2011 numbers for the Mariners, Carp looks like the better player (.276/.326/.466 vs. .216/.310/.431). I’m not saying it’s a valid comparison, but it might explain people’s biases.
I’m kinda high on Wells. I know that Jim Leyland liked him alot. I heard some rumblings about the M’s kicking the tires on Seth Smith. I think that would be a dynamic combo with Carp at DH. However if the Fielder rumors are real, I think Wells/Carp platoon may become a reality. Either way, unless Gutt and Ichiro come around, Wells may be in for a lot of PA’s in 2012.
You just told us why Dave. Well’s fall off was much bigger than Carp’s was. That’s why we perceive Carp to have a better future. I believe both have a good future with the team.
I think the fact that Carp is left-handed and showing good pop is a big reason why people perceive him to be the better prospect and he had a fantastic finish to the season after getting called up. We all know that left-handed power plays a ton better in Safeco than right-handed power so I think people get excited when they see a young lefty bat that is showing some pop.
For the record I like both players and see a nice upside to be contributors on the M’s and nice complimentary pieces.
I liked Westside Guy’s argument about hometown bias. I think the idea that people have come around to the idea of Carp as “one of us” while Wells is still viewed as an outsider makes some sense. Here are a couple of theories I’d offer along with it:
1. Carp’s a lefty, Safeco favors lefties, and the Seattle fanbase has been in love with lefites since the days when Bavasi seemed to go out of his way to make sure our lineup fit our ballpark as poorly as possible.
2. Wells looks like a fourth outfielder while Carp looks like a slugger. This one might seem like a bit of a stretch given that both are listed at 6’2 and 210, but I can’t be the only one that thinks this. Casper seems thin and waifish. I mean look at him: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/805748-seattle-mariners-8-reasons-their-offense-will-be-much-improved-in-2012/page/6. If that’s guys 6’2, he’s about 130. And watching him zip around the outfield reminds me of guys like Charles Gipson and Alex Diaz who covered a lot of ground, but had to get their whole body behind it to hit it out of the infield. Then take a look at this barrel-chested short round: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2009787113_mike_carp_jason_vargas_promote.html. Anybody else thinking he’s one big meal away from being Matt Stairs? I bet nobody in Seattle would be surprised to find out that the biggest difference between these two is power, but I bet everyone would be STUNNED to find out that Casper has the edge.
But those are just my guesses. Who thinks I’m wrong?
As a baseball community, we overvalue the home run.
If Carp had hit zero homeruns, but had the same slash line, only made up of doubles and triples, how would he be viewed then?
As it pertains to Carp, I agree with you 100%, Valenica.
But I think getting Francisco Martinez was the real key to that trade. I don’t think they pull the trigger on it unless he was in there.
However, if he’s healthy I think Wells becomes the best left fielder we’ve had in QUITE a while.
…what’s so special about Francisco Martinez? He doesn’t walk. He doesn’t hit for power. He’s not a high contact guy. He’s the Carlos Triunfel of 3Bs – all tools, no substance. Yeah he was playing at a higher level than Nick Franklin at the same age, but that’s all he really has going for him. His winter numbers aren’t even good. If he was the centerpiece, then the trade was a big flop.
Mike Carp makes me feel better because of Nick Esasky.
This has probably already been said, but I think the answer to Dave’s question about the difference in perception is that Carp hit a few mammoth HRs, where Wells didn’t. I’m thinking specifically of the one Carp put into the Hit it Here Cafe and the one into the second deck in Cleveland. People see that and it sticks in their mind. I don’t think you can point to something that Wells did that would necessarily have the same impact on a casual fan.
Not saying there’s any real basis for it, but it’s there. Hell, I still vividly remember Mark Whiten hitting a mammoth HR for the M’s in the Metrodome in 1996 halfway up the 2nd deck in right field. HRs have an impact on people.
Personally I feel like Casper Wells was the key to the Fister trade so if he doesn’t work out to at least a starting LF, that trade was a failure
Yup. Trading a cost-controlled 3-4 SP good for 2-3 WAR (and who knows, maybe some upside), and you don’t get a MLB regular back? FAIL.
I have to disagree here… I have hopes for Casper Wells as an everyday LF, but I don’t think he’s the sole player who measures the value of the Fister trade.
Don’t forget that we got Charlie Furbush, Chance Ruffin, AND Francisco Martinez- who just might be the best of the bunch, if he develops into the 3B some think he will (like Smoak, he was the guy Detroit DIDN’T want to include– and we just recently added him to the 40 man roster).
Plus, I think it’s pretty safe to say Fister won’t maintain the ridiculously awesome numbers he put up at the end of last season. (I loved watching him in the playoffs, though. It was fun to see him do what he did.)
I miss Fister, and was a big fan, but I’m happy with that trade, overall.
There’s a few reasons people prefer Carp.
1. Comparisons. (a) Carp is compared to Smoak, who many see as a bust due to his poor 2nd half and their preference for Jesus Montero. (b) Wells is compared to Fister, who dominated in Detroit. The other guys in the deal? Just a big pile of prospects that never turn out good anyway.
2. How many right-handers like Wells have failed in Safeco?
3. Wells had no background with us, so that 4 HR in 5 games (or whatever it was) is seen more as a fluke, whereas Carp’s hot month is seen as a continuation of his AAA performance.
4. When you tout Wells’ defense, some people interpret that to mean he can’t hit — and Mariners fans are sick of those players.
Dodgers got Capuano, so who is your next choice for M’s? Francis? How much would you be willing to pay?
Rumblings that Slowey may be non-tendered, and Twins GM Ryan quoted saying he didn’t have good year(even though Slowey wasn’t too far off career numbers, Ryan might be evaluating him based on ERA). We might be able to pick him up right now for very little. Slowey isn’t LH, but can’t go wrong with a 27-year old 2+ WAR pitcher.
Has anyone else noticed that lately Baker has seemingly simultaneously hit his head on something hard while becoming addicted to crack and drinking hard liquor?
Wells seemed to fall flat after getting his nose nicked by Brandon Morrow. Probably a little gunshy. He was only a couple inches from major facial reconstruction.
In the “minor news” world of the Mariners outfield, this just in…
M’s have signed “speedy outfielder” Darren Ford.
[deleted, rosterbation, knock it off]
I am a fan of both. Wells was a welcomed addition last year. My fear is that his numbers dropped after he was grazed on the nose by Morrow’s fastball – he seemed to lose his aggressiveness after that. I am looking forward to spring training when we can see if he can get over that hurdle. Carp was a stud at first base (in case we don’t land Fielder) and a nice left handed bat.
Well, I guess you can count Eric Wedge as someone who got sucked in by Carp’s hot streak.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2016950635_marinotes07.html
Carp as the everyday LF and no platooning young players. Oh, this should go well.
I think both players should be starting in the outfield for the 2012 season. Over the winter meetings, Wedge was suggesting an alternate route for Ichiro’s future; possibly moving him out of right field and out of the lead off spot. The lefty/righty mix between Carp and Wells would be great.
I’m not going to throw up a bunch of stats on both players because I just read probably every stat on the two. It seems that most Mariners fans know of Carp because of his time in the Mariners system. Everyone knows what he can do and know of his potential.
When looking at Wells, most fans know of him as having a hot first few weeks and then a big decline. First off, notice that the decline came after almost getting his face smashed in by a 97mph fastball, which was followed by vertigo like symptoms. I think before evaluating Wells on this, you need to look at his career in Detroit. He put up some great numbers for his limited playing time, and also showed what he can do in the outfield. Assess his value from his time with Detroit and his first few weeks with the Mariners.