Mat Latos Trade Opens Opportunity for Mariners
Back in June, I wrote a piece suggesting that the Mariners should trade Michael Pineda to Cincinnati for a package of players built around first baseman Yonder Alonso and catcher Yasmani Grandal. Well, today, the Reds made the deal I suggested for perhaps the most similar pitcher in the sport (in terms of results) to Pineda, landing RHP Mat Latos from San Diego in exchange for those two and a couple of good arms in Edinson Volquez (another favorite of mine) and Brad Boxberger. Overall, I’d say this package is slightly better than the one I suggested, as swapping in Volquez and Boxberger in exchange for Todd Frazier and Travis Wood provides a bit more upside for San Diego.
While we can’t know if the Reds would have surrendered this exact same package of talent for Pineda, it seems likely that the M’s could have flipped him for something close this level of value. Pineda’s track record isn’t as long as Latos’, but he comes with an extra year of team control at the league minimum, which helps offset some of the value of the extra experience. Personally, I would have made this deal for the Mariners, as they could have used all four guys San Diego acquired and replaced Pineda with a free agent starter while waiting for the young live arms to get to the show.
However, that ship has now sailed, and there’s no real reason to think that the Mariners were ever as interested in moving Pineda for that kind of package as I am. In all likelihood, they’re going to keep both him and Felix and try to upgrade the roster around those two. And, if that is the plan, then this deal could actually create a new opportunity for the team.
In acquiring Yonder Alonso, the Padres have essentially picked up their first baseman of the present. He’s 25-years-old and already shown that he can hold his own against big league pitching, so the Padres will almost certainly slot him in as their everyday first baseman in 2012. His power-to-all-fields approach is actually a good one for Petco Park, and while he’s probably not going to develop into Adrian Gonzalez, the Padres have seen that LH hitters with opposite field power can perform well in their park. Alonso may not have superstar upside, but he’s a good fit for San Diego, and should be able to hold down their first base job for the foreseeable future.
The opportunity here for the Mariners is that the Padres best prospect is also a left-handed hitting first baseman. In trading Gonzalez to Boston last winter, they acquired Anthony Rizzo, and then watched him break out with an outstanding season for Triple-A Tucson. While the PCL is a hitter’s league and all numbers down there need to be taken with a grain of salt, Rizzo’s ability to post a .331/.404/.652 mark at age 21 against that level of competition is extremely impressive, and his overall line was still 49 percent better than the average PCL hitter, the fourth best mark of any hitter in the league.
Or, to put it in Mariners-related context, Rizzo was essentially as good as Mike Carp was down in Tacoma, only he’s three years younger and has more room for growth. Rizzo’s stint in the Major Leagues didn’t go as well, but his core performance was better than his overall slash line, which was driven down by a .210 BABIP and the fact that Petco is murder on left-handed pull power hitters. Petco’s effect on balls to right field is more extreme than Safeco’s effect on balls to LF, and Rizzo’s power is almost entirely to right field. A move to a more friendly stadium for his skillset could have a strong positive effect on his future results, and Safeco plays nice to guys who can rip the ball out to right field.
The Padres won’t have room for both Alonso and Rizzo, and of the two, Rizzo is the one who doesn’t really work in San Diego’s home park. I have to think that this deal makes him available for the right price, and he’s the type of interesting young left-handed slugger that the Mariners could use for the long term. While Justin Smoak and Mike Carp still offer some potential, Rizzo would give them a third quality young power hitter from the left side who could slide into a job at either 1B/DH, and the team’s willingness to use Carp in left field means that he wouldn’t push either of them off the roster. If Rizzo shows he’s ready for the big leagues, the organization could make room for him, or they could simply go with a short term LF/DH option and give Rizzo the ability to get more development time in Triple-A while they figure out what they have in Smoak and Carp.
The big question is what the cost would be, obviously. It’s hard to say exactly what the Padres would ask for in exchange for their top prospect, but the Mariners certainly have pieces that would be attractive to San Diego. Nick Franklin seems like one potential piece the team could dangle, as the Padres don’t really have a shortstop of the future at the moment, or they could dangle an arm like James Paxton if the Padres preferred to reload their pitching depth after trading Latos.
Obviously, going this route would mean the Mariners wouldn’t also throw huge money at Prince Fielder, so I expect the pro-Fielder crowd to hate this suggestion and give us the generic reasons why he’s The Savior and The Only Option. For those of you who understand that there’s more than one path to success, however, Rizzo is now an intriguing option who probably wasn’t available 24 hours ago. At the least, the M’s should explore what the asking price would be, and if he can be had for a reasonable price, the team could add the left-handed power hitter they’ve been looking for without having to spend $200 million to get him.
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Dave, I don’t understand why we’d trade Franklin (and possibly others) for Rizzo. Wouldn’t that just make us redundant with left-handed power hitting 1B/OF types…while all the while costing us our shortstop of the future?
You’ve talked about trading Pineda from a position of strength. I like Rizzo, but this would seemingly create a position of weakness if it cost us Franklin.
I expect the nay-sayers to argue more along the lines of him being just another flash in the pan prospect “like Justin Smoak”; And why on Earth would this team need another Justin Smoak?
And why don’t we just trade Franklin Guttierez and sign Carlos Beltran to play center? And we need more veteran grit like we had when Raul Ibanez was here… This is why I don’t enjoy chatting about baseball with 90% of local fans.
I think we certainly need to trade Pineda now. If we can get a package like this, then what are we waiting for? Forget Rizzo…
That’s a really great package for the Padres. I would have probably pulled the trigger if the Reds offered that for Pineda but anyhoo…
Kick the tires for Rizzo but I’m crazy enough to believe Smoak will rebound from a horrendous year and not swing and miss so often. Also I’d be very reluctant to trade Franklin. The mere chance he might actually stick at shortstop makes him damn near untouchable IMO.
“Reasonable price” for Rizzo is the key phrase. Josh Byrnes is a pretty smart GM however so I expect the price for Rizzo to be too high.
Not everyone is convinced that Franklin really is a shortstop long term, and with Ackley around, moving to second isn’t really an option. Rizzo also offers more present value, which the team should be valuing, as they need to put a decent team on the field next year in order to stem the declines in attendance of the last few years.
I’m not saying that they should definitely swap Franklin for Rizzo. I’m just saying they have pieces that SD would want, and Rizzo is the kind of guy the team should be looking to acquire. It’s something worth exploring.
Thanks for posting this, I was a bit depressed when I read about the trade earlier. Sure would have been nice to get Alonso and Grandal. I’d be on board with Rizzo for about the level of player being bandied about as a price.
Say, can Rizzo play 3b? 🙂
I’ve been surprised that the M’s haven’t been in on any trades thus far. Perhaps their pursuit of Fielder is their focus, and they don’t want to make any deals for a hitter until that’s settled. As a fan, I’d prefer it if the team added talent in exchange for money that isn’t mine, rather than for other talent. If they succeed in adding Fielder and keeping Pineda, Paxton, Hultzen, Walker et al, then I’m happy.
Sure, a big salay like Fielder’s could hamstring the team down the road…but maybe it won’t. Maybe they sign a huge TV deal, or just decide to spend more money on salary hoping wins = fans = money. Adding talent without having to give up any just makes the on-field product better.
Byrnes is a smart GM but he has a bit of problem now with 2 young 1B on their 40 man roster. Either try moving Alonso to LF or 3B (which means they trade Headley) or trade Rizzo. Everyone will low-ball the Pads for Rizzo.
Personally, I’d like to keep Franklin and Paxton but what about Beaven or Vazquez? Those two are more NL West style pitchers that would have better numbers in those parks (minus Co. and Az.). I doubt anyone would be torn up if we moved one of those guys.
Yeah, let’s give up a non-prospect for a top 50 guy. I mean, why wouldn’t SD want to make that move…?
By the way, if I’m making a deal with SD, I’m also trying to get Will Venable. He’s a low profile Seth Smith, a LH hitter who needs to platoon but could be a really nice player in a job share with Casper Wells. Petco has killed him (career WRC+ of 119 on the road), but he’d be a really nice fit in Safeco.
Jack Z are you awake up there? I hope you aren’t sitting by your phone waiting for Boras/Fielder.
There’s always a possibility of landing Devin Marrero or Cecchini, Correa, or Diekroeger if we trade Franklin.
I probably would have done the deal for Pineda as well. If he has another outstanding year and grows he’s value is gonna be even way more!
Alonso, Smoak, and Carp would’ve duked it out for 1B/LF/DH, probably along with Wells. Olivo would’ve been mega trade bait. Then Volquez would’ve competed with Hultzen and change for the back end of the rotation behind Vargas.
Rizzo sounds good, but I don’t think the Reds give him up that easily. I mean this is the guy that was the center piece for AGon. I think it’d take Franklin and Campos/Ramirez to get it done. Maybe another guy coming our way too.
*Padres
I really hope the team isn’t thinking of “Smoak and Carp” interchangeably. When Smoak was unarguably healthy, he did very well. The question (for me, anyway) is – was he hurt, or just slumping, in the middle of the season? And if he was hurt, was it just a run of bad luck – or is he injury prone? Basically I’m thinking Smoak’s shown enough that he should still be considered the starting first baseman (on the existing roster, anyway).
On a side note – I was very happy to hear Jack Z’s comments on the “Hot Stove League” broadcast this past week. I know he holds his cards close to his vest; but he made his overall philosophy very clear – and it’s quite similar to what Dave and others have advocated for a while now. He’s not opposed to free agent signings (obviously), nor to trades (obviously), but he seems fundamentally opposed to the Bavasi-style “gut your farm system to bring in proven veterans” moves. He genuinely seems to think our farm system is close to the point where it can start consistently providing the team with decent major-league talent. I know it’s not a new revelation, but it was good to hear the recent struggles haven’t changed his approach (or, say, led How/Chuck to force him to change).
“I expect the pro-Fielder crowd to hate this suggestion and give us the generic reasons why he’s The Savior and The Only Option. For those of you who understand that there’s more than one path to success, however, Rizzo is now an intriguing option”
I am a big pro Fielder fan. However, I agree there are a few other ways to acquire talent without dropping $20-25M on Fielder. That being said Rizzo has a career 128AB’s in the MLB with a .141AVG and 1 homerun.
Smoak and Carp both have great upside as 1st/DH types. I like your thinking. And am all for trying to find a alternative to Fielder. But for you to try and draw any comparison to someone like Fielder, a proven MLB talent, is ridiculous.
I’d also ask for Headley. I would gladly do a Paxton/Seager/Franklin+ swap for Rizzo and Headley. Would give us a lot of depth in one fell swoop from positions of strength
I think I might just put “proven MLB talent” in the moderation queue filter. Seriously, if you can’t look at the track records of guys who have signed monster contracts and see that “proven veterans” still come with significant future performance risk, your opinion isn’t worth much.
I’m not sure about trading away Franklin. Sure, he might not stick at SS, but he also might stick at SS.
Brendan Ryan’s a solid MLB starter (especially if he doesn’t have to bat 2nd), but Franklin has “upside” and probably will be free through 2015. If the M’s do trade Franklin, then either this Rizzo or whoever better be awesome, or the club knows he will not stay at SS.
Nick Franklin could become a proven MLB talent here in the next few years.
> he’s three years younger and has more room for growth.
Dave – what is the ceiling you see for Rizzo? Who would you compare him to besides Carp? I’m still not sure what we have in Carp.
Dave -> I think I might just put “proven MLB talent” in the moderation queue filter.
Just-a-fan -> Nick Franklin could become a proven MLB talent here in the next few years.
Tell me this is a joke.
You don’t even have to look at other teams – just check the Mariners acquisitions of “proven veterans” over the past decade. Some have worked out well, but quite a few crashed and burned.
I could not resist the urge to use it in a sentence.
Maybe it was just my perception that exceeded reality, but it seemed all Bill Bavasi ever acquired was “proven veterans.”
I am neither in the Pro Fielder camp or the Con Fielder camp but it seems obvious to me the M’s are waiting to see how that finally plays out before they do anything. I think ultimately this is going to take too long and they should try and build a team without Fielder but I can see the allure of Prince.
Just off the top of my head, some Mariner “proven veteran” acquisitions that fall into both categories…
Good acquisitions: Beltre, Lee
“Crash and burn”: Sexson, Figgins, HoRam
I don’t want to pile on the failures, but I could add quite a few more without resorting to searching old stories.
“if you can’t look at the track records of guys who have signed monster contracts and see that “proven veterans” still come with significant future performance risk, your opinion isn’t worth much.”
well i’m just going to take my ball and go home then.
Seriously though, Prince might have performance risk but he’s a proven MLB all-star who’s only 27 while Rizzo is rookie with 128 career ab’s and 1HR. So if your going to try to sell me the idea that acquiring him over Fielder has similar potential value THAT is a hard pill to swallow.
My first reaction upon reading the announcement of this deal was the M’s could have moved Pineda and received something similar to what the Padres received. I would not be surprised to learn the Mariners where talking to Cincy on some level, but since the Reds are looking to see immediate returns they decided to deal for the more veteran Latos.
My second reaction was Rizzo would be a great fit for Safeco and the M’s. After all, you can always deal Smoak or Rizzo if one shows they are going to hold down 1B. As DC pointed out, Petco is death to lefty pull hitters. Something else to possibly keep an eye on is the fact San Diego now has possibly three stud catchers. Hundley is a local kid from Kirkland who is consistently getting better, Austin Hedges is a 2011 2nd rounder who is considered a top 3 prospect, and Grandal is a potential all-star.
I would not mind the M’s dangling Pineda for some combination of Rizzo, Grandal, Venerable, and Wieland/Erlin. I would also immediately pull the trigger if the Padres were to offer Rizzo for Franklin. A top 20 prospect in Rizzo for a guy that maybe cracks top 75 in Franklin? Absolutely.
Just to gauge the current perception, what would you all say the percentage is either Pineda, Paxton, Walker or King Felix is dealt between now and spring? Right now I am guessing it is about 30%. However, if the M’s don’t make a move over the winter, I am guessing Pineda would rake in a nice haul before the deadline.
Do Work JZ!
If the package was right I would move Felix: the M’s won’t contend for another 3-4 years because of the Angels and Rangers. So free up payroll, and add 5-7 good guys to this crappy roster.
Also what do the M’s do if Ichiro and Guti continue their recent crappiness? No one seems concerned that CF and RF could need someone new by July 2012…oh that’s right! They can’t see past Fielder’s HR total.
I’d rather get someone other than Rizzo, maybe somebody like Logan Morrison and Hanley Ramirez for something built around Pineda, Paxton, and Seager. A few lower guys would obviously be included.
We get two positions we were not strong in — Shortstop and Left Field — for something we are strong in, and have more coming soon.
That would leave us with a rotation of Felix, Vargas, Beavan, Hultzen and whoever we sign (Jeff Francis?).
Or lineup could look like..
1. Ichiro RF
2. Ackley 2B
3. Ramirez SS
4. Morrison LF
5. Smoak 1B
6. Carp DH
7. Jaso/Olivo C
8. Gutierrez CF
9. Liddi/Figgins ? 3B
I mean, It’s a huge improvement over what we have IMO. That lineup could score some runs — and Florida seems to want pitching and Ramirez may want out.
@spankystout – I don’t think it’s that no one is concerned about CF and RF. I think it’s that the people who are don’t tend to rosterbate. There are a few good international free agents out there for grabs right now. Oh, and I would also trade Felix for the right package. It would have to be as much of an overpay as the Reds just made to the Padres though, and I’m not sure if there is a team with the payroll space that has a system good enough for that kind of overpay. The Rays, Royals, and Rangers have systems that could be plundered, but only the Royals would probably make a deal like that.
Also, I agree with John Sickels that Nick Franklin will be able to stick at short-stop, and therefore don’t think his value is equal to that of Rizzo as a straight-across deal.
Dave, I thought the trade you suggested earlier was built around Votto, not Alonso.
Tourist: there is hope! The Padres GM said 4 teams offered nice packages for Latos. So 3 other teams are pretty serious about trading for an ace. But I agree the chances are slim that anyone will offer enough for Felix.
I’m not of the school of thought that we can afford to give up a prospect pitcher. Right now we have a #1, #2, #5 Vargas and fodder. We have 3 real promising prospects. I don’t consider the M’s having a lot of depth at this point. If they were to make a trade like the Padres did with Volquez and the others coming in, that makes sense. I could see trading Franklin for Rizzo, but not Paxton. I still want to see a few more arms stockpiled. But I do see the argument, Rizzo is tempting.
@JoshJones on December 17th, 2011 3:07 pm
Seriously though, Prince might have performance risk but he’s a proven MLB all-star who’s only 27 while Rizzo is rookie with 128 career ab’s and 1HR. So if your going to try to sell me the idea that acquiring him over Fielder has similar potential value THAT is a hard pill to swallow.
No one here is saying that if you were in a playground choosing teams at recess and you had the choice of Fielder or Rizzo, that you should choose Rizzo. But we’re not in a playground at recess.
Choosing Fielder means you are committing resources that you can’t spend elsewhere on the team. On the playground it would like having the choice of:
a) picking Fielder, then not being able to pick again until everyone else had made five more picks; or
b) picking Rizzo then getting to make two more picks in a row and not losing any future picks.
That shouldn’t be such a hard pill to swallow.
Honestly, I’d rather trade Pineda/Any of our young arms for top offensive prospects than sign Fielder.
“Tourist: there is hope! The Padres GM said 4 teams offered nice packages for Latos. So 3 other teams are pretty serious about trading for an ace. But I agree the chances are slim that anyone will offer enough for Felix.”
But a package for Latos and a package for Felix would be very different. This really makes some of those recent professional rosterbaters’ ideas of trading Felix and Montero, Betances, and Nova look foolish, because the Padres got arguably a much better package for Latos.
Great trade for the Padres. I’m not that high on Yonder Alonso, but I really wish the Mariners could have gotten Yasmani Grandal. A switch-hitting, patient bat with some power and a pretty nice ability behind the plate? Yes, please. Really jealous about that.
I’d definitely be opposed to trading Nick Franklin for Anthony Rizzo. If we’re trading Franklin, then it better be for a more proven middle of the order bat. You say the Padres don’t have a SS of the future, well, the same goes for the Mariners. Franklin might not stick at SS, but he’s very young and he’s said to be a fast learner. I’m hoping for Franklin to be our SS in 2013.
A Paxton for Rizzo trade sounds a little more reasonable. I’d much rather tangle some of our prospects for, yes, a “proven” guy like Logan Morrison. There IS value in guys that can hit major league pitching. Rizzo looked terribly overmatched.
Not to worry, folks. George Sherrill’s on the way.
I’m curious, does this mean that Pineda is more valuable than Latos? Or, are the Mariners over valuing Pineda? I really don’t want to give him up but I understand Dave’s willingness to because of the risk associated with him.
I don’t think I would go after Rizzo though because there is both Carp and Smoak on the team. I think I would instead go after Luke Scott, who was non-tendered by the O’s the other day. He shouldn’t cost much and could be a platoon partner in left with Wells and could take DH or first if either Smoak or Carp is traded. Also, he should be pretty cheap.
a haiku:
Read the link, link, link
Instead of just think and post
The rose is yellow.
Sherril back?
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2017040427_source_mariners_deal_with_geor.html
It’s okay to link him right?
How about linking to the person who had the news first? Just because Baker didn’t give him credit for the scoop doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t.
Rizzo certainly seems to fit the bill as the type of hitter the Mariners should be trying to acquire. Obviously, we hate to give up some of the talent in our system that we’re all looking forward to seeing in the show someday, but you have to give up something to get something.
Franklin is an interesting talent, for sure, but he’s nothing like a can’t miss prospect. Walker and Paxton are interesting as well, but either of them could blow out their arm at pretty much any time.
Personally, my favorite guy to trade is Pineda, because we can get the most for him. I’d rather trade one guy and make it a real impact trade than have to deal with the death of a thousand cuts approach where we slowly trade away all of our top prospects for players other teams didn’t want to keep.
Would a Rizzo trade have an impact on Fielder’s price if he goes to one of Fielder’s suitors?
Dave pretty much pointed out why the Reds would be hesitant to give out the same deal for Pineda doesn’t have the track record id rather hold on to Pineda anyways doesn’t make much sense to trade him. We should be looking to deal Felix if we don’t land Prince because clearly we are in full rebuild and we would be wasting 3 years of Felix. I disagree about Franklin by the way if he shows he can hit like he did when he first came to Clinton and he sticks at SS he is very valuable maybe not Walkers level but he definitely would be on Paxtons level imo.
I ment Alonso my bad.
I like Rizzo but Franklin can’t be dealt. We just don’t have the SS depth to make that kind of trade. Our next 2 SS are Triunfel, who’s bad, and Miller, who probably won’t stick. For 1B/DH types we have Smoak, Carp, Poythress, and maybe even Catricala if he can’t play LF/3B.
Pitching would make more sense but Paxton is worth more than Rizzo, and if you’re high on any of the guys it’s better to let them pitch a season or 2 in the MLB for maximum value. They’ll always be Rizzo/Alonso types on the trade market, but if you think Paxton’s unreal 35%+ K% in the minor leagues will translate, it’s better off keeping him and letting him establish more value.
Return of the bees!
[buzz buzz buzz!!]
Would a Rizzo trade have an impact on Fielder’s price if he goes to one of Fielder’s suitors?
Heyman says the Cubs are already one of the teams asking about Rizzo. If they landed him, it would seem to take them out of the bidding for Fielder.
So who’s left? If it’s true that the Jays will win the bid on Darvish, do they really want to expand payroll that much more? The Rangers swear they’re not interested, which almost certainly means that they are. But would the Rays really pay the price? Can Boras convince the Cards that this is their logical move after losing Pujols?
I want to hope that the M’s bargaining position just gets stronger as the days go by…but it will still cost a boatload.
With Franklin and some of these other prospects, I think we as fans have too much of a tendency to fall in love. It’s natural I suppose to want to see your team’s guys make it to the bigs. It’s kind of like following recruiting in college football. If he’s successful, there’s just something about knowing that your team scouted, drafted, and developed a player that makes him more exciting, at least in the beginning when he first comes up. But the reality is that most of these guys don’t make it, and of the ones who do make it, very few become superstars. So I think we have to be realistic about these things and be somewhat willing to trade our guys. Just not too willing though. You have to be careful.
I like Rizzo though. It’s seems like he’d be worth giving something up for.
I saw Rizzo play several times last year and he looked very overwhelmed. I barely remember any times he put the ball in play and when he did, it wasn’t solid. That can’t be attributed to PETCO.
I don’t really see how trading Pineda makes us any better, short term, or long term. Just gives up some more nice prospects, that may or may not turn out to be worth anything. Yes I do understand that Pineda could throw his arm out or not be effective too. It would have to be a deal for Major League ready talent to pull the trigger and plenty of it.
I do think it is funny that Bill Bavasi advises the Reds. I wonder how much power he has, because it would be funny if this ends up being the Cincinnati version of the Bedard trade.